ENERGY TRANSITIONS festina lente Vaclav Smil
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ENERGY TRANSITIONS
festina lente
Vaclav Smil
Marchetti’s substitution model (1977)
Thomas Edison with his favoritevehicle, 1905
Chevrolet Volt: <10,000 sold in 2011
Tesla Roadster, $109,000
Ballard Industries at the TSE, 1994-2008
ADMIRABLE COMMITMENT
OCTOBER 2008OCTOBER 2008OCTOBER 2008OCTOBER 2008
GoogleGoogleGoogleGoogle’’’’s s s s Clean Energy 2030 Clean Energy 2030 Clean Energy 2030 Clean Energy 2030 calls for calls for calls for calls for ““““weaning the U.S. of coal weaning the U.S. of coal weaning the U.S. of coal weaning the U.S. of coal and oil for electricity generation by and oil for electricity generation by and oil for electricity generation by and oil for electricity generation by 2030 (with some remaining use of 2030 (with some remaining use of 2030 (with some remaining use of 2030 (with some remaining use of natural gas as well as nuclear), and natural gas as well as nuclear), and natural gas as well as nuclear), and natural gas as well as nuclear), and cutting oil use for cars by 44%.cutting oil use for cars by 44%.cutting oil use for cars by 44%.cutting oil use for cars by 44%.””””
NOVEMBER 2011NOVEMBER 2011NOVEMBER 2011NOVEMBER 2011
Google abandons renewable Google abandons renewable Google abandons renewable Google abandons renewable energy projectenergy projectenergy projectenergy project....
Wind power
A calm continent: Asia’s wind classes at 80
m
LANDSATimage of Sichuan basin
Beneixama PV, Spain: 20 MW, 16% load factor
Power densities of biomass production
Joachim Patinir (1514) detail from Rest on the flight to Egypt
Traditional cereal
cultivars yielded
much more straw
than do modern
varieties (and
much more straw
than grain).
Joachim Patinir’s
1514 Rest on the flight to Egypt(now hanging in
Madrid’s Prado)
illustrates that
reality.
Pieter van derHeyden (after Pieter Bruegel),Summer (1570)
Modern wheat
Modern short-stalked wheat cultivar just before harvesting
Biofuel land claims
Power densities of energies
Mismatch of power densities
Power densities of renewable energies and of common energy uses
Hong Kong, peak power density 3,000 W/m2
Bangkok, peak power density 100 W/m2
Evolution of LNG transportation
Mozah, Qatar’s Q-Max LNG carrier (266,000 m3)
P&W’s Swiftpac provides quick (installed in less than a month)
and reliable natural-gas powered electricity generation in units
of about 30 or 60 MW.
US energy use and happiness:limits of more
Energy use and subjective well-being
Level of subjective well-
being
• 1. Puerto Rico
• 2. Mexico
• 3. Denmark
• 4. Colombia
• 10. Canada
• 13. Venezuela
• 15. USA
• 35. Italy
Average annual energy
use in 2010 (GJ/capita)
100
70
160
35
390
110
345
140
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