2012 Juvenile Winter Chinook Outmigration: Is This Year ... · 2012 Juvenile Winter Chinook Outmigration: Is This Year Any Different? Orientation: Sacramento River Salmon Late-Fall

Presented by

Bill Poytress, Supervisory Fishery Biologist

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Red Bluff Fish and Wildlife Office

2012 Juvenile Winter Chinook Outmigration:

Is This Year Any Different?

Orientation: Sacramento River Salmon

Late-Fall

Winter

Fall

Spring

Figure 1. Location of Red Bluff Diversion Dam on the Sacramento River, California at river kilometer 391 (RK 391).

Winter Chinook

Carcass Survey Area (RM 288-302)

Red Bluff Diversion Dam (RM 243)

≈ 50 miles

n = 6,513,306

n = 1,444,776

n = 1,265,142

n = 4,426,785

n = 1,281,786

n = 847,802

n = 208,041

0

250

500

750

0

250

500

750

0

250

500

750

0

250

500

750

0

250

500

750

0

250

500

750

0

250

500

750

BY

2006

BY

2007

BY

2008

BY

2009

BY

2010

BY

2011

BY

2012

Jul

Aug Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Ja

nFeb M

arApr

May Ju

n

Figure 1. Weekly estimated passage of juvenile winter Chinook Salmon at Red Bluff Diversion Dam (RK391),by brood-year (BY). Fish were sampled using rotary-screw traps for the period July 1 2006 to present .

Nu

mb

er

of in

div

idu

als

X 1

,00

0

Juvenile Winter Chinook Salmon Estimated Passage

Real-time winter Chinook Passage estimates:

By October…

Where are all the 2012 winter run juveniles????

Cumulative Percent Winter Run Passage

July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

Perc

en

t T

ota

l P

assag

e

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

15 Yr Mean

2012

WCS Monthly Abundance Pattern Comparison

July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

15 year Monthly Ave %

2012 Prelim

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Hmmm…

Let’s shift gears a bit….

Week 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average Median Delta Median

27 32 34 33 27 34 33 34 34 33 preliminary 32.7 33

28 34 35 35 35 34 31 34.5 35 35 31 35 34.0 35

29 36 35 34 36 35 35 36 36 35 35 35 34.5 36 32 35.3 35

30 37 34 36 34 37 35 34 35 36 35 35 34 34 36.5 32 35.2 35

31 36 35.5 35 33 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 34 37 32.5 34 34.9 35 -2.5

32 31.5 37 35 34 35 35 36 35 35 35 35 35 34 36 35 33 34.9 35 0

33 35 34 35 34 35 35 36 35 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 33 35.1 35 1

34 35 34 35 34 36 35 37 36 36 35 35 35 35 37 35 34 35.3 35 0

35 34 34 35 34 35 36 37 36 36 35 35 35 35 36 35 34 35.2 35 0

36 34 34 35 34 35 36 37 36 36 36 36 35 36 36 35 34 35.4 36 -1

37 35 35 35 34 35 36 37 36 35 36 36 35 36 36 36 35 35.5 36 0

38 35 35 35 34 36 36 35 36 36 36 35 36 36 36 35 35.5 36 0

39 34.5 34 35 34 36 36 36 35 36 36 36 35 37 36 35 36 35.4 36 -1

40 35 34 35 34 36 36 37 35 36 36 36 35 37 36 35 38 35.5 36 -1

41 35 35 37 34 36 37 37 35 36 36 36 40 37 36 36 39 36.2 36 0

42 36 57 45 44 46 39 37 37 37 37 37 52 48 41 40 44 42.2 40 0

43 51 60.5 53 52 56 47 38 47 42 40 40 55 53 51 47 49 48.8 51 -4

44 52.5 60 55 57 59 51 48 52 49 48 48 60 59 54 52 51 53.6 52.5 -0.5

45 58 64 57 56 59 53 52 55 51 53 53 63 61 57 58 54 56.7 57 1

46 69 61 56 62.5 57 53 59 57 55 55 66 64 61 59 56 59.6 59 0

47 63 71 63 58 62 59 57 61 59 57 57 67 66 63 60 57 61.5 61 -1

48 65.5 74 68 60 69 62 59 64 60 59 59 69.5 69 63 63 57 64.3 63 0

49 68 90 70.5 65 68 62.5 61 67 63 62 62 73 70 65 65 67.5 65

50 70.5 84 73.5 68 74.5 64 63 69 67 64 64 74 74 68 65 69.5 68

51 70 82 66 71 80 77 64 72 68 67 67 74 77 66.5 70 71.4 70

52 68 72 70.5 81 86.5 72 75 66.5 66.5 82 78 70 71 73.8 72

Quick 16 year data crunch reveals…

Weekly Median Forklength ComparisonF

ork

Le

ng

th (

mm

)

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

15 yr Average

2012 Median

July August September October November December

Rank Sum P = 0.128Two Sample KS P = 0.363

Hmmm…

Put these 2 together……

WCS Fry (Black) to Smolt (Red) Passage Ratio

1996

1998

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

20%0% 40% 60% 80% 100%

WCS Annual Abundance Indices

1995 1997 1999 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Adundance

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

Fry

Smolt

*

* Preliminary and Incomplete BY

Fry/Smolt Ratio’s and Total Abundance

WCS Females to Fry Eq. JPI

Female Spawners

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Estim

ate

d F

ry P

rod

uctio

n

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

R2 = 0.89P = <0.001df = 14

2006

2005

2002

2003

1998

2010

1997

2004

2009

20111999

2008

1996

20072012*

2012 * = Preliminary Data

Expected versus Observed?

2012 similar to 2007

Abundance vs Length at Migration Ln RBDD JPI and Fry:Smolt Ratio

Ln Total JPI

12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Perc

ent

Sm

olt P

ass

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

2012

2005

R2 = 0.40

df = 15

Overall migration later than average.

Peak Abundance occurred 2 months > average.

No significant statistical fish length (size) difference.

Fry/smolt abundance ratio 55/45.

Highest since 1999

~2 Standard deviations from 15 year average ratio (sig different)

2012 Projected abundance level anticipated to be similar to 2007

As of 3/11/2013 estimated passage =1.69 M Fry Eq

Moderate correlation between total abundance levels and size at

migration.

2015 Return Rate???

In The End, the 2012 migration…