Denver Area Local Market Report, Third Quarter 2009 Local Trend Prices are above the level from 12 months ago and growing $229,100 $177,900 1-year Appreciation (2009 Q3) -11.7% Today's Market… Current Median Home Price (2009 Q3) U.S. Price Activity 1.8% Denver Sales growth during the third quarter remains sluggish compared to the national average 5.9% U.S. $3,467 $867 $729,250 Colorado *Note: the 2009 loan limits for FHA and the GSEs were extended through 2010. -14.1% The decline has wiped out most of the equity gained during the housing boom -$45,900 Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio Most buyers in this market have access to government-backed finacing 55% -$24,100 3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain 7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain 3-year Appreciation (2009 Q3) 9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain 0.5% $28,900 -$4,500 State Existing Home Sales (2009 Q3 vs 2008 Q3) not comparable Conforming Loan Limit* $417,000 -9.5% Home Sales and Construction Growth national average $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2009 Q3 Q1 2008 Q3 Q1 2007 Q3 Q1 2006 Q3 Q1 2005 Q3 Q1 2004 Q3 Q1 2003 Q3 Q1 2002 Q3 Q1 2001 Q3 Q1 2000 Q3 Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2009 Q3 Q1 2008 Q3 Q1 2007 Q3 Q1 2006 Q3 Q1 2005 Q3 Q1 2004 Q3 Q1 2003 Q3 Q1 2002 Q3 Q1 2001 Q3 Q1 2000 Q3 State Home Sales (Red Line) and Sales Growth 1,000s
Every housing market is unique. These Local Market Reports (LMRs) — which reflect data available through 3rd Quarter 2009 — provide insights into the fundamentals and direction of the nation\'s largest metropolitan housing markets.
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Denver AreaLocal Market Report, Third Quarter 2009
Local Trend
Prices are above the level from 12 months ago and growing
Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income(Historical Average shown in Red Dashed Line)
The spread between the 30-year fixed rate mortgage and the 10-year Treasury bond fell again in the third quarter and stands close to the historic average. This decline of the spread suggests that the financial markets view the risk on
mortgage debt as close to a "normal" state and that the private sector will buy up excess demand if yields rise. Consequently, the Fed is likely to phase out its program of buying up mortgages in the secondary market to keep rates low, leaving the private sector to fill the void. Mortgage rates are likely to rise in first or second quarter of 2010 as the Fed exits
Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income(Historical Average shown in Red Dashed Line)
DenverMonthly Market Data - August 2009
Looking Deeper….
U.S.Th D k t h l h f
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%
State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)
Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association
12.3%
12.3%
87.7% 87.7%
12.3% 12.3%
1.6% 2.3%
1.4% 1.7%
13.3% 18.0%
13.6% 18.8%
7.5% 14.5%
6.9% 12.1%
Compared to the national average, today's local rate is low
There was a substantial increase versus July of this year
Source: First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance data
The "foreclosure + REO rate" is the number of mortgages, by metro area, that are either in the foreclosure process or have completed the foreclosure process and are owned by banks divided by the total number of mortgages for that area.
Locally, today's foreclosure rate is low relative to the national average
There has been little change locally compared to July
ALT-A: Foreclosure + REO
Rate The August rate for Denver is low compared to the national average
SUBPRIME: Foreclosure + REO
Rate
Market Share: Prime (blue) vs.
Subprime + Alt-A
Relatively little local change versus July of this year
PRIME: Foreclosure + REO
Rate
The Denver market has a lower share of subprime loans than the average market,
but rising prime foreclosures are becoming a problem
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%
State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)