12 Progressive Dairyman Issue 12 • August 11, 2011 Only calf products that include NeoTec4 are specifically designed to address the top 4 calf challenges. NeoTec4 is a metabolically active fatty acid ingredient that optimizes calf performance. Don’t settle for run of the mill, make sure NeoTec4 is on your label. neotec4.com • 800-553-1712 • 800-392-8324 NeoTec4, it’s the mark of a designer label calf product. TM INGREDIENTS: Most calf feeds are deficient in essential fatty acids. Adding NeoTec4 ensures your calves are getting everything they need for optimal performance. NeoTec4 has considerable peer- reviewed research and is quickly becoming a standard ingredient in calf diets. Make sure your calf nutrition program includes NeoTec4. Look for NeoTec4 in MILK REPLACERS / STARTERS / GROWERS Roasting grains is the biggest breakthrough in livestock feeding that’s ever happened! This new roaster utilizes a unique new concept that constantly and continuously produces evenly cooked beans. It will make a positive difference on your feed bill and on milk production. • Easy to use. • Produces avg. $200 per day profit and/or benefit. • Gives cows maximum nutritional benefit. • Increases milk production. • Roasts 6000 lbs. of soybeans every 24 hrs… enough to handle 1000–2000 milk cows. For FREE information on this amazing innovative product contact us today! 989.875.4069 www.diltswetzel.com e-mail: [email protected] A New Concept to Roasting Grains: Electric • Continuous Production • Better Quality Beans Two sizes of roasters available! Raw soybeans before roasting Roasted soybeans ready to feed “Your Livestock Will Love ‘Em and Demand Seconds” Dilts-Wetzel Mfg. Co. Manufacturers Of Original Farm Equipment Scabbling = Happy Cow Tri-State Scabbling 1.800.554.2288 www.tristatescabbling.com Serving Entire Midwest Region No Scabbling = Sad Cow Come see us in booth B4595 at the Wisconsin Public Service Farm Show! MARKET WATCH MARKET WATCH RATE OF PRODUCTION GROWTH SLOWing MILK A wise dairy analyst once noted that the U.S. dairy industry’s ability to produce milk is like a train – acceleration and braking take a while. e June U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Milk Production report supports this view, as June was the 17th consecutive month that U.S. milk production was more than the same month of the prior year. Production in June was 16.528 billion pounds, equal to 117 additional tanker loads of milk per day. e rate of increase over June 2010 was 1.1 percent, continuing a slow shrinking trend. September 2010 production, the peak year-over-year comparison so far in this production cycle, was 3.3 percent and the comparison has dropped each month since then. While milk production continues to increase overall, the rate of growth is slowing. Production increased over last June in 14 of the 23 largest milk-producing states – 10 in the West and four in the East. Eighteen of the top 23 states had increases in cow numbers, with five of them (Washington, Idaho, California, Arizona and Texas) adding more than 10,000 cows each. An increasing national dairy herd appears to be Elvin Hollon Director, Fluid Marketing/ Economic Analysis for DFA [email protected] the main driver for milk production growth in coming months. Production per cow of 1,795 pounds was only 0.2 percent over last year, and well below the 10-year trend of 1.5 percent. June weather was conducive for milk production across the United States, so the minimal milk-per-cow growth may be due to poor feed quality or tight margins that constrained spending. e rest of the world is also increasing milk production. European Union milk production has increased 2.8 percent for the first four months of 2011 as compared to the same time period in 2010. e Oceania region (which includes New Zealand and Australia) ended the most recent milking season on a strong note. e current forecast for the upcoming milk season is for stronger growth in that part of the world. Feed costs remain at high levels. Using the Milk Income Loss Contract’s feed prices as a proxy for a national feed ration and inputting future prices for corn, soybeans and hay for the remaining months of the year yields an average feed cost of $11.50 per hundredweight for July – December 2011. If these costs U.S. Total 9,198 +33 1,808 +0.4% 50,439 +1.3% 98,860 101.7% Legend Number of cows (in thousands) Milk per cow (Q4 monthly avg.) (in lbs.) Total milk production (quarter) (in millions of lbs.) Year-to-date milk production (total) (in millions of lbs.) Percentage of year-to- date production versus previous year-to-date Quarterly change (in thousands) Annual percent change Annual percent change 90% 100% 110% become a reality and milk prices cannot keep pace, this may curtail milk production. Globally, dairy product prices have declined slightly during the past few weeks. e latest USDA international price recap shows that all commodity prices, except for cheese, have shown some decline. e recent weakness in global prices may reflect a “wait and see” attitude from dairy buyers as to what milk production does around the world before committing to additional purchases, and they are willing to hold minimal amounts of inventory in the meantime. U.S. prices have not experienced much of a decrease yet as hot summer weather has increased uncertainty over grain prices and cut into milk production in some parts of the country. Until the weather effect is fully measured, we may avoid the current world price slowdown. However, if domestic milk production increases significantly, we should expect prices to weaken. PD