16 April 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Wipro Uncertainty persists We maintain REDUCE rating on Wipro based on lower than expected revenue and margin performance. Covid-19 related global slowdown will lead to cut in discretionary spending, pricing discounts and postponement of large deals wins. Headwinds in BFSI (Medium term), stress in Manufacturing (Auto) and ENU (Energy) will offset the improving outlook in Healthcare and Communication. The company has not provided for 1QFY21E guidance, citing uncertainty. We cut our EPS estimates by 0.9/1.5% for FY21/22E. Our TP of Rs 185 is based on 11x FY22 EPS. Revenue in 4Q stood at USD 2,074mn, +0.4/2.6% QoQ/YoY CC (vs. est. of USD 2,086mn). Growth in 4Q was supported by uptick in ENU (12.8% of rev), Healthcare (13.5% of rev) and Technology (12.8% of rev), while Consumer vertical (16.8% of rev) declined due to Covid impact. BFSI (30.4% of rev) growth decelerated to -1.3% YoY (vs 15.9% YoY CC in 4QFY19), impacted by slowdown in large European banks, Capital market sub- segment and Covid-19 impact. Growth slowed down in NorthAm (+3.1% YoY CC) while Europe growth was soft (+1.9% YoY CC). Wipro has not given guidance for 1Q due to global uncertainty. The impact of Covid-19 in the quarter was ~USD 14-16mn (3 weeks), which is 0.7-0.8% of revenue. USD rev growth adjusting for Covid comes to +1.2% CC, which is at the midpoint of the guidance (0-2% CC). IT services margin contracted 76bps QoQ to 17.6% (est. 18.1%). Margin was impacted due to lower growth and higher salary payout, offset by higher utilisation, lower SG&A and currency benefit. APAT came at Rs 24.56bn, - 5.3% QoQ impacted by higher ETR of 20.9% (vs. 20.0% in 3Q). Cash conversion was impacted in the quarter due to increase in working capital related to Covid-19. OCF to PAT conversion was at 60.5% in 4Q vs. ~100% last quarter. Net cash stands at USD 3.3bn (~22% of Mcap). Valuation and view: Wipro’s growth will continue to lag within the Tier-1 IT pack based on soft outlook for ~51% of rev comprising BFSI, Retail, Travel, Manufacturing & Energy. This will be offset by relatively better outlook in Consumer (e-commerce & new age Media), Healthcare (Hospitals) and Communication. New opportunity will emerge with increased cloud adoption, Automation and workplace modernisation. Clients are looking for higher efficiencies (RTB) and vendor consolidation (benefit for incumbents). While growth concerns remain (Covid led disruption), there is limited scope for margin expansion. We expect USD rev growth of -4.4/+4.7% and IT services EBIT% at 17.0/17.3% for FY21/22E. The stock is down ~25% in 3M and valuations are at ~11.9x FY21E (vs. 12.8x Tier- 1 IT median). Financial Summary YE Mar (Rs bn) 4Q FY20 4Q FY19 YoY (%) 3Q FY20 QoQ (%) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Net Revenue 157.11 150.06 4.7 154.71 1.6 544.87 585.85 610.23 596.13 632.08 EBIT 25.00 25.46 (1.8) 26.51 (5.7) 82.81 92.62 101.42 93.94 101.47 APAT 23.26 23.63 (1.6) 24.56 (5.3) 82.57 90.86 97.22 89.24 96.73 Diluted EPS (Rs) 4.1 4.1 (1.6) 4.3 (5.3) 14.5 15.9 17.0 15.6 17.0 P/E (x) 12.9 11.7 10.9 11.9 11.0 EV / EBITDA (x) 8.7 7.0 6.7 6.5 5.4 RoE (%) 16.5 17.3 17.3 14.9 14.2 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research REDUCE CMP (as on 15 Apr 2020) Rs 187 Target Price Rs 185 NIFTY 8,925 KEY CHANGES OLD NEW Rating Reduce Reduce Price Target Rs 190 Rs 185 EPS change % FY21E FY22E -0.9 -1.5 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg code WPRO IN No. of Shares (mn) 5,713 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 1,066/13,938 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 889 52 Week high / low Rs 302/159 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (24.9) (23.4) (35.2) Relative (%) 2.7 (2.9) (13.5) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Dec-19 Mar-20 Promoters 74.04 74.04 FIs & Local MFs 7.00 7.01 FPIs 8.42 8.45 Public & Others 10.54 10.50 Pledged Shares - - Source : BSE Amit Chandra [email protected]+91-22-6171-7345 Apurva Prasad [email protected]+91-22-6171-7327 Vinesh Vala [email protected]+91-22-6171-7332 HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters
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16 April 2020 Results Review 4QFY20
Wipro
Uncertainty persists We maintain REDUCE rating on Wipro based on lower than expected revenue and margin performance. Covid-19 related global slowdown will lead to cut in discretionary spending, pricing discounts and postponement of large deals wins. Headwinds in BFSI (Medium term), stress in Manufacturing (Auto) and ENU (Energy) will offset the improving outlook in Healthcare and Communication. The company has not provided for 1QFY21E guidance, citing uncertainty. We cut our EPS estimates by 0.9/1.5% for FY21/22E. Our TP of Rs 185 is based on 11x FY22 EPS.
Revenue in 4Q stood at USD 2,074mn, +0.4/2.6% QoQ/YoY CC (vs. est. of USD 2,086mn). Growth in 4Q was supported by uptick in ENU (12.8% of rev), Healthcare (13.5% of rev) and Technology (12.8% of rev), while Consumer vertical (16.8% of rev) declined due to Covid impact. BFSI (30.4% of rev) growth decelerated to -1.3% YoY (vs 15.9% YoY CC in 4QFY19), impacted by slowdown in large European banks, Capital market sub-segment and Covid-19 impact.
Growth slowed down in NorthAm (+3.1% YoY CC) while Europe growth was soft (+1.9% YoY CC). Wipro has not given guidance for 1Q due to global uncertainty. The impact of Covid-19 in the quarter was ~USD 14-16mn (3 weeks), which is 0.7-0.8% of revenue. USD rev growth adjusting for Covid comes to +1.2% CC, which is at the midpoint of the guidance (0-2% CC).
IT services margin contracted 76bps QoQ to 17.6% (est. 18.1%). Margin was impacted due to lower growth and higher salary payout, offset by higher utilisation, lower SG&A and currency benefit. APAT came at Rs 24.56bn, -5.3% QoQ impacted by higher ETR of 20.9% (vs. 20.0% in 3Q).
Cash conversion was impacted in the quarter due to increase in working capital related to Covid-19. OCF to PAT conversion was at 60.5% in 4Q vs. ~100% last quarter. Net cash stands at USD 3.3bn (~22% of Mcap).
Valuation and view: Wipro’s growth will continue to lag within the Tier-1 IT pack based on soft outlook for ~51% of rev comprising BFSI, Retail, Travel, Manufacturing & Energy. This will be offset by relatively better outlook in Consumer (e-commerce & new age Media), Healthcare (Hospitals) and Communication. New opportunity will emerge with increased cloud adoption, Automation and workplace modernisation. Clients are looking for higher efficiencies (RTB) and vendor consolidation (benefit for incumbents). While growth concerns remain (Covid led disruption), there is limited scope for margin expansion. We expect USD rev growth of -4.4/+4.7% and IT services EBIT% at 17.0/17.3% for FY21/22E. The stock is down ~25% in 3M and valuations are at ~11.9x FY21E (vs. 12.8x Tier-1 IT median).
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
IT Services/Products/ISRE revenue was up 1.3/8.4/26.7% QoQ in INR terms IT services revenue were impacted by USD 14-16mn (0.7-0.8% of revenue) in 4QFY20 due to COVID-19 IT Services EBIT margin contracted 76bps QoQ to 17.6% (est. 18.1%) due to revenue drop partially offset by lower SG&A & currency tailwind Adjusted PAT stood at Rs 23.26bn (-5.3% QoQ) vs. est. of Rs 23.92bn impacted by lower margin and higher tax rate Total forex hedging at USD 2.7bn for the next four quarters
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Wipro: Results Review 4QFY20
IT Services EBIT Margin Trend Revenue Productivity (Rev/emp USD ‘000)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
BFSI has slowed down for Wipro due to challenges in US capital market, EU Banks and COVID-19 disruption Consumer growth was muted due to lower deals in e-commerce sub vertical Healthcare & Medical devices is seeing strong demand related to Hospital management and ventilators requirements ENU slowed down due to lower oil prices impacting Oil & Gas sub vertical Manufacturing de grew for the quarter, impacted by Auto segment Airlines & Airports, Oil & Gas, Retail, Travel & Hospitality, Auto sectors are high impact verticals due to COVID 19
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Wipro: Results Review 4QFY20
Service Line Break-Up (IT Services ex ISRE) Services Mix (USD mn)
BPO de-grew 5.5% QoQ and 2.1 QoQ as WFH is difficult to acheive Cloud Infra and Analytics both de-grew 1% in the quarter Opportunities are emerging in Virtual collaboration tools, cyber security, Process automation & increased cloud adoption (medium to long-term) Digital (41.2% of rev) growth is slowing down (18.3% YoY vs. 34.5% in 4QFY19) Legacy continues to be under stress (-3.3% QoQ & -9.9% YoY). Fall in legacy is higher than peers. Cash conversion was poor due to increase in working capital related to Covid-19. OCF to PAT conversion was at 60.5% vs. ~100% last quarter
America’s de-grew after two second consecutive quarter of growth due to COVID 19 impact Europe reported muted growth but YoY growth is still under pressure Onsite revenue was under pressure, offshoring helped margins
Top customer is under pressure since last three quarters Wipro’s Top-5 client’s performance have been muted for the past four qtrs impacted by BFSI Gross utilisation improved 320bps on account of lower net additions Net reduction of 4,432 employees witnessed during the quarter Attrition moderated to 14.7% (-100bps QoQ), attrition is at multi qtr low
16-Apr-20 187 REDUCE 185 From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system
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Wipro: Results Review 4QFY20
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