1230 BELWARD Impact of the new Implementation Plan [Read-Only] BELWARD... · The Global Risks Landscape 2016 Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2016 ... Conference of

Impact of the New Implementation PlanNew Implementation Plan

Alan Belward* and Mark Dowell*on behalf of the IP Writing Team

*EC Joint Research Centre IspraEC Joint Research Centre, Ispra

Changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and world human population since GCOS was established

13% more CO2 in the atmosphere now than in 1992

World’s human population increases by 148 people per minute

Changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and world human population since GCOS was established

UNFCCC Paris Agreement December 2015

Agenda 2030 and the SDGs agreed at the

Sustainable Development Summit September 2015

The Future We Want set at the Rio

+20 June 2012

Agenda 21 set at the Earth

Summit 1992

The Global Risks Landscape 2016Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2016

Copyright World Economic Forum 2016http://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2016

① A global risk is an uncertain① A global risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, can cause significant negative impact for severalnegative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years.

② In the face of considerable ‘competition’, failure ofcompetition , failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation is flagged as the #1 risk*the #1 risk*

*greater than weapons of mass destruction (2nd), water crises (3rd), large-scale involuntary migration (4th) and severe energy price shock (5th).

COP-21: Paris Agreement Article 7 (7c)• Strengthening scientific knowledge on climate, including research, systematic g g g , g , y

observation of the climate system and early warning systems, in a manner that informs climate services and supports decision- making

• Developing the Transparency Framework (the need to promote transparency, p g p y ( p p y,accuracy, completeness, consistency, and comparability, and environmental integrity)

SBSTA C l iSBSTA Conclusions:• Noted with appreciation the [Status] report by GCOS

• Encouraged GCOS to consider the outcomes of the twenty-first session of theEncouraged GCOS to consider the outcomes of the twenty first session of the Conference of the Parties when preparing the GCOS IP 2016

• Invited GCOS to collaborate with relevant partners to continue enhancing access to and understanding and interpretation of data products andaccess to, and understanding and interpretation of, data products and information to support decision-making on adaptation and mitigation at national, regional and global scales

@@

CoP 3 CoP 21

Progress against 138 gactions in 2010 IP update

Status report version

NIP draft version

Work in progress: incorporates 2015 GCOS Steering Committee input

will incorporate GCOS Science panel input 2016

Examples from list of 32 Indicators linked to the 20 Aichi targets and the 5 CBD strategic goals

Selection of the 8 UNCCD Progress Indicators

UNFCCC

CBD

UNCCD

SDGs

increase productivity, strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate

transboundarywater resources

management

protect and restore water-related ecosystems

phenology – plant growth and differentiation; ocean flow;

seasonal surface water

lake area and levels

pchange

management

reduce adverse environmental impact of cities

manage and protect marine and coastal

t

total terrestrial

system status and trends in habitats that provide

dynamics

land cover change

soil

SST and salinity

anomalies

pecosystems

Minimize impacts of ocean

carbon stockhabitats that provide

carbon storage

t d i f soil carbon

ocean colour

of ocean acidification

ecosystem extent and

net primary productivity

disturbance

trends in area of degraded ecosystems

being restored

FAPARand LAI

wind speed and burnt area and

active fire h lt th l l d d ti it

ecosystem extent and fragmentation/ functional

types Regimes

h bit t wind speed and direction

halt deforestation, increase afforestation

halt the loss of biodiversity

land productivity dynamics

habitat structure

land cover

increase afforestation and reforestation

combat desertification, restore land and soil, achieve a land

degradation-neutral world

Vegetative land cover

10 km

Karkheh River, Iran 21st July 1993 merged into 21st December 1999 Landsat courtesy USGS / NASA

10 km

Karkheh River, Iran 21st December 1999 Landsat courtesy USGS / NASA

10 km

Karkheh River, Iran 23rd February 2000 Landsat courtesy USGS / NASA

10 km

Karkheh River, Iran 24th January 2001 Landsat courtesy USGS / NASA

10 km

Lake area and levels

Karkheh River, Iran 27th January 2002 Landsat courtesy USGS / NASA

10 km

Maximum water extent

Karkheh River, Iran Global Water Extent 1984 – 2015 Source JRC and GEE (J-F. Pekel, A. Cottam, N. Gorelick, A.S. Belward)

10 km

30 year water occurrence

Karkheh River, Iran Global Water Occurrence 1984 – 2015 Source JRC and GEE (J-F. Pekel, A. Cottam, N. Gorelick, A.S. Belward)

10 km

Water occurrence changes

Karkheh River, Iran Global Water Occurrence Change Intenstity 1984 – 2015 Source JRC and GEE (J.F. Pekel, A. Cottam, N. Gorelick, A.S. Belward)

10 km

Inter-annual variability

Karkheh River, Iran Global Water Seasonality 2014 Source JRC and GEE (J-F. Pekel, A. Cottam, N. Gorelick, A.S. Belward)

10 km

Intra-annual variability

Karkheh River, Iran Global Water Recurrence 1984 – 2015 Source JRC and GEE (J-F. Pekel, A. Cottam, N. Gorelick, A.S. Belward)

10 km

Transitions

Karkheh River, Iran Global Water Transitions 1984 – 2015 Source JRC and GEE (J-F. Pekel, A. Cottam, N. Gorelick, A.S. Belward)

10 km

Risk assessment and planning

Protect and water-related

Land coverHabitat structure

and planning water related ecosystems

Land cover h

Lake area and levels

change

Dist rbance

Carbon storage

Disturbance regimes

Transboundary water resource management

Ecosystem fragmentation

Land degradation

Vegetative land cover

Karkheh River, Iran Global Water Occurrence 1984 – 2015 Source JRC and GEE

management degradation neutrality

cover

86,139 km2 of permanent water lost, 168,215 km2 of permanent water gained

Naypyidaw

Baghdad

200 kmIraq (left) Myanmar (right), Global Water Occurrence Change Intenstity 1984 – 2015 Source JRC and GEE (J.F. Pekel, A. Cottam, N. Gorelick, A.S. Belward)

increase productivity, strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate

transboundarywater resources

management

protect and restore water-related ecosystems

phenology – plant growth and differentiation; ocean flow;

seasonal surface water

lake area and levels

pchange

management

reduce adverse environmental impact of cities

manage and protect marine and coastal

t

total terrestrial

system status and trends in habitats that provide

dynamics

land cover change

soil

SST and salinity

anomalies

pecosystems

Minimize impacts of ocean

carbon stockhabitats that provide

carbon storage

t d i f soil carbon

ocean colour

of ocean acidification

ecosystem extent and

net primary productivity

disturbance

trends in area of degraded ecosystems

being restored

FAPARand LAI

wind speed and burnt area and

active fire h lt th l l d d ti it

ecosystem extent and fragmentation/ functional

types Regimes

h bit t wind speed and direction

halt deforestation, increase afforestation

halt the loss of biodiversity

land productivity dynamics

habitat structure

land cover

increase afforestation and reforestation

combat desertification, restore land and soil, achieve a land

degradation-neutral world

Vegetative land cover

ECVs and Earth System Cycles

Energy Watergy

Carbon

Satellite Data Providers①Substantial engagement in IP /

status cycle

②

Traceable to GCOS Guidelines and GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles

②Strong demand (for ECV spec.) and strong supply

③ Important to the space agency③ Important to the space agency coordination mechanisms, individual agencies and their programmes

④Considerable Resources ll t dallocated

Dowell et. al. 2013 Strategy Towards an Architecture for Climate Monitoring from Space

ECV Product Requirements and the Satellite Supplementpp①Maximise GCOS / CEOS / CGMS synergy

②Reduce time-lag between IP and Satellite②Reduce time lag between IP and Satellite Supplement release

③Align requested reporting of both GCOS g q p gand the Space Agencies to SBSTA

④Provide Satellite Supplement as an Appendix to the New Implementation Plan

⑤Extend ECV product requirements provided in satellite supplement to in situprovided in satellite supplement to in-situ data

Timetable① Structure finalized by writing team (February 2016)① Structure finalized by writing team (February 2016)

② Scientific community views and reviews at GCOS Science Conference (March 2016)

③ GCOS Science Panel development, review and input (March –April 2016)

④ Second writing team meeting to prepare first complete draft (May g g p p p ( y2016)

⑤ V0.1 submitted for Community review July 2016

⑥ P bli i l d f A t 2016⑥ Public review closes end of August 2016

⑦ V1.0 prepared in light of comments on V0.1

⑧ V1 0 submitted to GCOS SC October 2016 and subsequently to⑧ V1.0 submitted to GCOS SC October 2016 and subsequently to SBSTA/CoP

The writing team... so far• Alan Belward• Mark Dowell• Roger Saunders• Han DolmanHan Dolman• Michel Verstraete• Bernadette Sloyan• Toste Tanhua

K d St ff• Konrad Steffen• Shaun Quegan• Pascal Lecomte• Stephen Briggsp gg• Carolin Richter• Simon Eggleston• Katy Hill• Robert Husband• Robert Husband• Detlef Stammer• (Adrian Simmons)

IP 2016 Table of ContentTHE GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE: IMPLEMENTATION NEEDS (tbc)

Part 1: Part 2:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. INTRODUCTION2. PURPOSE OF THE PLAN3. GROWING DEMANDS FOR CLIMATE OBSERVATIONS

1. OVER‐ARCHING & CROSS‐CUTTING ACTIONS2. ATMOSPHERIC CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEMOBSERVATIONS

3.1. The need for information on Climate Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation3.2  The need for information in support of Climate Services

SYSTEM 3. OCEANIC CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEM4. TERRESTRIAL CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEM

APPENDICES3.3. Climate Indicators3.4. Cross Convention Co‐ordination on Observations

4.  CONSISTENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS 

APPENDICESAPPENDIX 1: UNFCCC SBSTA: Excerpts from the conclusions on research and systematic observation up APPENDIX 2: Decision 9/CP.15 ‐ Systematic Climate Observations.APPENDIX 3: GCOS Climate Monitoring PrinciplesAPPENDIX 4:Agents for ImplementationAPPENDIX 5: List of Annex‐I and non‐Annex‐I Parties to the UNFCCC

THE EARTH SYSTEM CYCLES

SUMMARY OF MAIN ACTIONS

APPENDIX 6: ContributorsAPPENDIX 7: List of TablesAPPENDIX 8: Glossary of Acronyms

Annex:ECV PRODUCT REQUIREMENTS / SATELLITE SUPPLEMENT 

Impacts

① C ti it d① Continuity, and progress

② Addresses information needs for adaptation and mitigation

③ Addresses information needs of Transparency Framework

④ Greater efficiency

⑤ Improved capacity building and outreach

⑥ Improved information exchange between conventions⑥ Improved information exchange between conventions

⑦ Focused demand on core ‘providers’

⑧ F d d t f ‘ ’⑧ Focused products for core ‘users’