1 The elderly at work – an asset Committee of the Regions Open Days seminar on Active Ageing 12 October 2011 Dr. Jörg Peschner European Commission, DG.

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The elderly at work – an asset

Committee of the Regions Open Days seminar on Active Ageing12 October 2011

Dr. Jörg PeschnerEuropean Commission, DG EMPL/A1

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Active Ageing: A must!

Demographic change: workforce will be shrinking rapidly – but more older workers will become available.

Europe will inevitably fall behind current welfare standardsunless..

.. we find ways to tap this huge resource and further shift older people‘s employment rate .. we manage to provide for significant productivity shifts via skills development at all ages

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EU’s workforce will inevitably shrink…

Source: Eurostat, EUROPOP2010 projection

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Baseline scenario

No migration

Working age population in million

-42 m workers over the next 50 years..

.. -96 m workers withoutmigration..

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.. and change its face: More older people will be come available…

Source: Eurostat, EUROPOP2010 projection

2010 – 2020: +7.4m older people

2020 – 2030: +2.5m older people

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.. literally everywhere in Europe..

Share of people aged 55-64 in people aged 20-64

Sou

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: LF

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.. literally everywhere in Europe..

Share of people aged 55-64 in people aged 20-64

Sou

rce

: LF

S d

ata,

ow

n ca

lcul

atio

ns

base

d on

DG

EM

PL‘

s re

gion

al p

roje

ctio

n so

ftw

are

7

.. literally everywhere in Europe..

Share of people aged 55-64 in people aged 20-64

Sou

rce

: LF

S d

ata,

ow

n ca

lcul

atio

ns

base

d on

DG

EM

PL‘

s re

gion

al p

roje

ctio

n so

ftw

are

8

.. so efficient Active Ageing Policy is necessary!Lessons from the past: LISBON-Strategy 2000-2010

Though the formal targets weren’t achieved,LISBON was a success …

EU27Employment rates by age group between 2000 and 2010

Source: Eurostat LFS

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

All (age 15-64)Older people (age 55-64)

Others (age 15-54)

Lisbon target for all workers(age 15-64)

Lisbon target for older workers (age 55-64)

all (15-64)

older (55-64)

others (15-54)

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… to which older workers contributed much more than proportionately

Source: Eurostat LFS

EU27Employment rates by age group between 2000 and 2010

62%63%64%65%66%67%68%69%70%71%72%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Actual employment rate for age group 15-64

Fictive employment rate for age group 15-64 assuming progress for other agegroups (15-54 years) had been equivalent to older people's (55-64 years)

Lisbon target for all workers(age 15-64)

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EU2020 Employment rate target: 75% for the 20-64 year-olds

Up to 2020 it will still be possible to shift employment,….

1.0% 0.9%1.0% 1.0%

2.0% 2.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

2000-2008 2010-2020 2020-2030

Past growth performance Future growth potential

Employment growth

Productivity growth

Economic growth

+

=

Source: Own calculations based on LFS data

…. if the EU manages to achieve its EU2020 employment rate for the 20-64 year-olds of 75%, starting from 68% in 2010 (creating more than 20m jobs).

% in

crea

se p

.a.

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EU2020 Employment rate target: 75% for the 20-64 year-olds

But after 2020 employment will shrink…

1.0% 0.9%1.0% 1.0%

2.3%

2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

-0.3%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

2000-2008 2010-2020 2020-2030

Past growth performance Future growth potential

Employment growth

Productivity growth

Economic growth

+

=

…. if employment rate will remain at 75%, i.e., will not shift further …. if the number of migrants will not further increase. Pressure on productivity will multiply!

Source: Own calculations based on LFS data

% in

crea

se p

.a.

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Policy conclusions

In order to maintain welfare standards, Europe must

- cushion to the largest possible extent the impact of the workforce decline by further shifting employment rates at all ages. Don‘t stop after 2020! Supply of older workers will continue to increase until 2030: Tap this potential!

- invest heavily in skills development, education, Life-Long Learning in order to shift productivity

- adopt a modern approach towards qualified migration

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EU2020 strategy: Focus on employment and productivity gains

.

.

.

Guideline 7: Increase labour market participation and reduce structural unemployment (the EU headline target, on the basis of which Member States will set their national targets, is of aiming to bring by 2020 to 75% the employment rate for people aged 20-64 for EU27).

Guidelines 8,9: Develop a skilled workforce responding to labour market needs, promoting job quality and lifelong learning; improve performance of education and training systems at all levels .....

Employment guidelines as proposed by the Commission:

Shift employment rate!

Increase productivity via skills development!

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Dr. Jörg PeschnerSeconded National ExpertEuropean CommissionDG Employment DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion A1 - Employment Analysis J-27 02/111B-1049 Brussels

[email protected]+32 - 2 29 64290 (phone)+32 - 2 29 94233 (fax)

Thank you!