Demography of Population Ageing in South East Asia · PDF fileDemography of Population Ageing in South East Asia Past, ... Increase in the Elderly Population 65+, 2000 - 2030 ... Myanmar

Demography of Population

Ageing in South East Asia

Past, Present and Future Trends

Plenary Paper 1, Ballroom, South East Asian Conference on Ageing (SEACA2010),

17 - 18 July 2010, Grand Millennium Hotel Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

A. P. Dr. Tengku Aizan Hamid

Institute of Gerontology, UPM

Demography of Population Ageing

in South East Asia:Past, Present and Future Trends

CONTENT

Demographic Determinants

o Fertility, Mortality & Life Expectancy

o Median Age, Age-Sex Structure

o Dependency Ratios & Other Indicators

Demographic Transition

Facts and Figures: What does it all mean?

The Malaysian Situation

Challenges and Opportunities

Conclusion

Population Ageing

• Population ageing is unprecedented,

• Population ageing is pervasive,

• Population ageing is profound,

• Population ageing is enduring.

- UNDESA (2002) World Population Ageing, 1950 - 2050.

Average life expectancy at birth has increased by 20 years since

1950.

Fast growth of the population in the first half of the 21st century

mean that the number of persons over 60 will increase from

about 600 million in 2000 to almost 2 billion in 2050.

Global Population Ageing

6.98.1

10

22.1

28.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Percentage 60 years and over

Source: Long-Range World

Population Projection: Based

on the 1998 Revision. The

Population Division,

Department of Economic and

Social Affairs, UN Secretariat.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Age

Per

cen

t (%

)

1850

1930

1940

1990

1999

Limit

Rectangularization or Extension?

• Source: Cai, J. G. (2004)

Human Survival Curve

115

85

50 4527 24 18

4528 23

Years

France Sweden Switzerland

Germany USA China

Malaysia Japan South Korea

Singapore

Sources: (1) United Nations The Aging of Population and its Economic and Social Implication Population Studies No.26, New York,

1956 (Before 1940); (2) United Nations World Population Prospects 1990 Population Studies No. 120, New York, 1991 (After 1940),

Tengku Aizan et al 2005

Years to double from 7% to 14%

Speed of Aging

Malaysia will be an aged nation in the year 2030 when 15% of the

total population is aged 60 years or over.

108

126

170

174

178

197

206

207

210

215

227

240

240

250

258

277

372

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Australia

Canada

China

India

Sri Langka

Thailand

Peru

Bangladesh

Egypt

South Korea

Mexico

Philipines

Indonesia

Costa Rica

Colombia

Malaysia

Singapore

Percent (%) Increase in the Elderly Population 65+, 2000 - 2030

Source: United States Census International Data, 2001

Rate of Ageing

Basic Demographic Processes

Fertility

Crude Fertility Rate

Total Fertility Rate

Age-specific Fertility Rate

Mortality

Crude Mortality Rate

Age-specific Mortality Rate

Migration

Internal, Local

External, International

Demographic transition occurs when there is a change in the

population dynamics from high birth and death rates to low birth

and death rates.

4 Stages of transitions:

• Stage 1, both birth and death rates are high,

population growth slow

• Stage 2, death decline but birth rates high,

population growth faster

• Stage 3, birth rates decline, death rates stabilizes, population

growth slow

• Stage 4, birth and death rates more or less balance,

slow growth, maybe no growth

Gradual change or rapid change?

Demographic Transition

A change in

the

population

dynamics

from high

fertility and

mortality

rates to low

fertility and

mortality

rates.

Demographic Transition

Total Fertility Rate

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1950-

1955

1955-

1960

1960-

1965

1965-

1970

1970-

1975

1975-

1980

1980-

1985

1985-

1990

1990-

1995

1995-

2000

2000-

2005

2005-

2010

2010-

2015

2015-

2020

2020-

2025

2025-

2030

2030-

2035

2035-

2040

2040-

2045

2045-

2050

Year

To

tal F

ert

ilit

y R

ate

(C

hild

ren

per

Wo

man

)

Brunei

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Mortality

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1950-

1955

1955-

1960

1960-

1965

1965-

1970

1970-

1975

1975-

1980

1980-

1985

1985-

1990

1990-

1995

1995-

2000

2000-

2005

2005-

2010

2010-

2015

2015-

2020

2020-

2025

2025-

2030

2030-

2035

2035-

2040

2040-

2045

2045-

2050

Year

Cru

de D

eath

Rate

(D

eath

s p

er

1000 P

op

ula

tio

n)

Brunei

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Life Expectancy at Birth

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1950-

1955

1955-

1960

1960-

1965

1965-

1970

1970-

1975

1975-

1980

1980-

1985

1985-

1990

1990-

1995

1995-

2000

2000-

2005

2005-

2010

2010-

2015

2015-

2020

2020-

2025

2025-

2030

2030-

2035

2035-

2040

2040-

2045

2045-

2050

Year

Lif

e E

xp

ecta

ncy a

t B

irth

Brunei

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Indicators of Population Ageing

• Age and Sex Structure

• Median Age

• Ageing Index

• Dependency Ratios

2 0 1 0

7 %

5 4 %

2 1 %

8 %

9 %1 %

A f r ic a A s ia Eu r o p e L a tin A me r ic a & th e Ca r r ib e a n No r th e r n A me r ic a O c e a n ia

Older Population by Continent

2050

11%

61%

12%

9%

6% 1%

Africa Asia Europe Latin America & the Carribean Northern America Oceania

759.1 million 2.01 billion

Older Population in South East Asia

- Population ageing is a global phenomenon

- There are more older persons in developing countries although the

more developed regions are relatively “older”.

South East Asia, Age Structure, 1950 - 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Perc

en

t (%

)

0-14

15-59

60+

175905 195423 220394 249910 283267 318964 355774 398179 439591 479834 517193 554080 589615 622911 653540 681584 706491 727693 744719 757484 765966

Size of Older Population1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Bru

nei

Cam

bodia

Indonesia

Laos

Mala

ysia

Myanm

ar

Philippin

es

Sin

gapore

Thaila

nd

Vie

tnam

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Nu

mb

er

(in

Th

ou

san

ds)

Year

Country

Brunei

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Proportion of Older Population

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f O

lder

Po

pu

lati

on

(60+)

(Perc

en

t, %

)

Brunei

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Median Age

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Med

ian

Ag

e

Brunei

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Ageing Index

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Ag

ein

g In

dex (

65+/<

15*1

00)

Brunei

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Old Age Dependency Ratio

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Old

Ag

e D

ep

en

den

cy R

ati

o

Brunei

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Dependency Ratios, Laos PDR, 1950 - 2050

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

1 0 0

1 9 5 0 1 9 5 5 1 9 6 0 1 9 6 5 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 5 2 0 4 0 2 0 4 5 2 0 5 0

Y e a r

De

pe

nd

en

cy

Ra

tio

s

T o ta l

C h ild

O ld -a g e

Dependency Ratios, Malaysia, 1950 - 2050

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Dep

en

den

cy R

ati

os

Total

Child

Old-age

Dependency Ratios, Singapore, 1950 - 2050

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

1 0 0

1 9 5 0 1 9 5 5 1 9 6 0 1 9 6 5 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 5 2 0 4 0 2 0 4 5 2 0 5 0

Y e a r

De

pe

nd

en

cy

Ra

tio

s

T o ta l

C h ild

O ld -a g e

Dependency Ratios, Thailand, 1950 - 2050

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

1 0 0

1 9 5 0 1 9 5 5 1 9 6 0 1 9 6 5 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 5 2 0 4 0 2 0 4 5 2 0 5 0

Y e a r

De

pe

nd

en

cy

Ra

tio

s

T o ta l

C h ild

O ld -a g e

Fact and Figures

• Population ageing is a fact and it is here to stay.

• The South-east Asian region alone will register a 435%

rise in its older population from 39.5 million to 175.8

million.

• A majority of the elderly will come from developing

countries.

• The transition will have a demographic window where

the proportion of the adult, working age population

remains high.

• Once this has passed, the proportion of the older

population will overtake that of the younger population.

Opportunities & Challenges

• Take advantage of demographic window

• Meeting the needs and demands of an ageing population while maintaining strong economic growth

• More can be done in areas of:-

– Finance security

– Integration of health and social care

– Relationship of informal and formal care

• Supplement

• Complement

– Gender perspective

• Double jeopardy, old and women

– Supply of services

• Government driven, need to change

– Community based care

– Research sharing

Older Persons…

• Have different backgrounds (education, income, social

status etc.)

• Dissimilar life experiences

• Different environment

• Different ethnic / Culture

• Different needs, wants and expectations

Health, Healthcare and Long-term

Care

Employment, Pensions and Social

Security

Intergenerational Relationships

Poverty

Housing

Abuse, Neglect and Maltreatment

Laws and Ageing

Others

- Older Consumers

- Older Drivers

- Retirement community

- Estate planning

- Will, trusts & bequest

- Power of attorney

- Dispute resolutions

- Many more

MAJOR AREAS OF CONCERN

Addressing Gaps and Critical Issues

As indicated in the demographic data, the number and

proportion of the elderly is increasing.

The aged should not be neglected and marginalized in a

country’s rapid development and modernization.

In order to address the problems of senior citizens,

involvement from the family, civil society and the state is

rather crucial. Understanding the role of each unit is vital to

ensure each problem is addressed appropriately.

At the end of the day, a society for all ages can be a reality.

Addressing the Challenges

• The demographic changes faced by the countries (lower fertility, mortality and increase in life expectancy) brought about by rapid urbanization, modernization and industrialization have resulted in the rise of new generations.

• Malaysians in general has thought of population ageing as an indicator of progress or a sign of national success.

• The government retains a minimalist, welfare-oriented approach to the situation of the aged, where the responsibility of care was placed firmly on the family (Tengku-Aizan & Nurizan, 2008; Ong 2002).

• With smaller family units, dual income households and increasing geographical mobility, the older persons need meaningful choices or alternatives.

Older persons face dynamic problems

In order to solve these problems, we must come out

with strategic and dynamic plans, as different

solutions are needed in different times to cater the

need of the elderly both in the present and the future.

It is a challenge that cannot be addressed by the

public or private sector in isolation; it requires joint

approaches and strategies

It is through the partnership between the government,

society and family that the well being of the older

person could be achieved and sustained.

Conclusion

• Preparations should be well underway for the ageing

societies.

• There has to be political will to optimize limited

resources and plan ahead, by leveraging the

outcome through strategic alliances and

partnerships.

• There is an often repeated saying that the true

measure of a civilisation is how they treat their

weakest members.

THANK YOU . TERIMA KASIH