1 Small States’ Defence Options after the Cold War Jean-Marc Rickli 6 March 2009 University of Iceland.

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Small States’ Defence Options after the Cold

War

Jean-Marc Rickli 6 March 2009

University of Iceland

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Structure of the presentation

1. Small states’ security dilemma2. Changes in the strategic environment in

Europe3. Small states’ grand strategy options4. Small states’ military options5. Conclusions

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1.1 Definition of a small state

State that has a deficit of power due to its weak ability to mobilize ressources which could be material, relational or

normative

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1.2 Small states’strategic dilemma

Security

Autonomy Influence

Defensive Cooperative

Offensive

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1.3 Cold War

Alliance• Bandwagoning or

balancing• Deterrence provided by

great power

• Lost of strategic autonomy

• Entrapment

Neutrality• Strategic sovereignty• Deterrence provided by

extensive territorial defence preparations

• Strategic abandonment

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2.1 Changes in the strategic environment in Europe

1) Unipolarity

2) Shift from threats based to risks based environment

3) Institutionalisation of security

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2.2 Changes in the strategic environment in Europe

1) Increased incentive for bandwagoning

2) Selectivity in the use of force

3) Standardisation of security

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2.3 Obsolescence of defensive strategies

• Disappearence of the strategic advantage provided by territorial defence preparations

• Overburden of costs

• Maintenance of autonomy is counterproductive

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2.4 Strategic orientations according to the nature of strategic challenges

  Autonomy Influence

ThreatsLinked to territorial

security

Neutrality Alliances

RisksLinked to functional

securityCounterproductive Institutionalisation

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2.5 Post-Cold security paradox for small states

Formal strategic options Strategic room of manoeuvre

Cold War Post-Cold War

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3.1 Small states’ grand strategic goal

Carve out a niche strategy

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3.2 Small states’ grand strategic goal

ZOPA

ZOPA

+

+

+

+

-

-

-

-

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3.3 Small states’ grand strategic options

• Technical expertise

• Honest broker

• Norms setter

• Institutional engineering

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4.1 Change of strategic paradigm  Cold War Contemporary

environmentNational security strategy

Collective or autonomous defence

Prevention/Protection

Doctrines

Strategic level

Dissuasion/Deterrence

Stabilisation/Coercion

Operational level

Territorial Defence ProjectionNiche

Theatre of operations

National territory Out of area / National territory

Strategic Culture Reactive Pro-active

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4.2 Small states’ defence options

  Homeland Defence

Low strategic ambitions

High strategic ambitions

Strategic levelPrevention/Protection

Stabilisation/Reconstruction

Coercion/ Enforcement

Operational level

Territorial protectionSubsidiary assistance

Police missionsIntelligence

Niche:Logistic

TransportMedical units

CommunicationCIMIC

Niche:Special

operations Counter-terrorism

 Framework nation

Armed forces structure

Conscription and professional

Division of labour bw conscripts and prof

Interoperability

ProfessionalModularity

Network centric

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4.3 Small states’ defence options

  Homeland Defence

Low strategic ambitions

High strategic ambitions

Strategic levelPrevention/Protection

Stabilisation/Reconstruction

Coercion/ Enforcement

Operational level

Territorial protectionSubsidiary assistance

Police missionsIntelligence

Niche:Logistic

TransportMedical units

CommunicationCIMIC

Niche:Special

operations Counter-terrorism

 Framework nation

Armed forces structure

Conscription and professional

Division of labour bw conscripts and prof

Interoperability

ProfessionalModularity

Network centric

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4.4 Small states’ defence options

  Homeland Defence

Low strategic ambitions

High strategic ambitions

Strategic levelPrevention/Protection

Stabilisation/Reconstruction

Coercion/ Enforcement

Operational level

Territorial protectionSubsidiary assistance

Police missionsIntelligence

Niche:Logistic

TransportMedical units

CommunicationCIMIC

Niche:Special

operations Counter-terrorism

 Framework nation

Armed forces structure

Conscription and professional

Division of labour bw conscripts and prof

Interoperability

ProfessionalModularity

Network centric

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4.5 Small states’ defence options

  Homeland Defence

Low strategic ambitions

High strategic ambitions

Strategic levelPrevention/Protection

Stabilisation/Reconstruction

Coercion/ Enforcement

Operational level

Territorial protectionSubsidiary assistance

Police missionsIntelligence

Niche:Logistic

TransportMedical units

CommunicationCIMIC

Niche:Special

operations Counter-terrorism

 Framework nation

Armed forces structure

Conscription and professional

Division of labour bw conscripts and prof

Interoperability

ProfessionalModularity

Network centric

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4.6 Niche strategies

Advantages Risks

Political •Strategic influence•Co-decision power

•International pressures

Strategic ●Extendedprotection

•Casualties•Public opinion

Operational •Know-how•Reduction of mission creep risks

•Intensive use of capabilities

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4.7 Framework nation strategy

Advantages Risks

Political •Strategic responsibility•Decision power

•International pressures/responsibilities

Strategic ●Extended protection●Autonomy

•Casualties•Public opinion reactions

Operational •Extended know-how•Reduction of mission creep risks

•Intensive use of capabilities•Exclusive use of ressources

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5. Conclusions

1. Paradox for small states security options

2. Cooperative security policy

3. Niche strategy