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1 OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc. <[email protected]>
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1 OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc.

Mar 27, 2015

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Page 1: 1 OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc.

1

OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE:EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW

Robert David Steele

President, OSS Inc.

<[email protected]>

Page 2: 1 OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc.

2

PRESENTATION PLAN

Intro

Overview of Open Sources, Software, and

ServicesCM

Analysis

Coalition

OperationsOver

viewSvcsSWSrcInt

Cell

Overview

Conclusions

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DEFINITIONS

• DATA: raw report, image or broadcast

• INFORMATION: collated data of generic interest and usually widely disseminated

• INTELLIGENCE: concisely tailored answer reflecting a deliberate process of discovery, discrimination, distillation, and delivery of data precisely suited to need

Page 4: 1 OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc.

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TIMELINE

LONG AGO: “Legal travelers”

WWII AND COLD WAR: Special Librarians Association (14,000 members)External Research & Analysis FundsLloyd’s and Jane’sBBC & FBISChurchill adept at correspondence

LAST SEVEN YEARS: OPEN SOURCE SOLUTIONS Inc. (4000 trained)

Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals (6000 members) Community Open Source Program Office (USA) Eighteen governments doing one thing or another

NEXT SEVEN YEARS: A Very Hard Road

Page 5: 1 OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc.

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OSINT AND THE IC

“The Intelligence Community has to get used to the fact that it no longer controls most of the information.”

The Honorable Richard Kerr Deputy Director of Central Intelligence (USA)

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OSINT DEFINED

• From Open World– Open sources

– Open software

– Open services

• From Closed World– Requirements analysis

– Collection Management

– Source Validation

– Source Fusion

– Compelling Presentation

Page 7: 1 OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc.

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WHAT OSINT IS NOTNOT I

“…nothing more than a collection of news clippings”.

“…the Internet.”

“…a substitute for spies and satellites.”

Page 8: 1 OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc.

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WHAT’S MISSING?

SIGINT: Dedicated collectors, processors, exploiters

IMINT:

Dedicated collectors, processors, exploiters

HUMINT: Dedicated collectors, processors, exploiters

MASINT: Dedicated collectors, processors, exploiters

OSINT: ???

ALL-SOURCE ANALYST

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THE ALL-SOURCE SOLUTION

OSINT AnswersAll-Source AnalysisClassified Collection

SIGINTHUMINT

IMINT MASINTCommercial Geospacial

Targeting Support

Subject-Matter Experts

Broadcast Monitoring

Page 10: 1 OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc.

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NEW INTELLIGENCE GAP

Available Information

Actionable Intelligence

INFORMATION

TIME

GAP BETWEEN WHAT YOU CAN KNOW AND WHAT YOU CAN USE

Page 11: 1 OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc.

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INFORMATION ARCHIPELAGO

Schools & Universities

Business Information

Intelligence

Defense

Mass & Niche Media

Information Brokers & Private Investigators

Government

Page 12: 1 OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc.

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MORE COMPLEX THREATMORE COMPLEX THREAT

PHYSICAL

STEALTH,

PRECISION

TARGETING

NATURAL

STEALTH,

RANDOM

TARGETING

CYBER -

STEALTH,

DATABASE

TARGETING

IDEO -

STEALTH,

MASS

TARGETING

GUERRILLAWAR

CULTURALWAR

HIGH TECH

BRUTES

(MIC / HIC)

LOW TECH

BRUTES

(LIC)

HIGH TECH

SEERS

(C3I WAR)

LOW TECH

SEERS

(JIHAD)

MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS

POWER BASE

KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY

TERRORISMTERRORISMECONOMICWAR

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FAILING OVERALL

OBVIOUS MILITARY

WE DO WELL ENOUGH

CRIME AND TERROR WE DO BADLY

CIVILIAN CYBERSPACE

WE HAVE DECADES TO

GO

A-/B+

SIQ

C-/D+

D-/F+IDEOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT WE DON’T DO

AT ALL

Page 14: 1 OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc.

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LEVELS OF ANALYSIS

STRATEGIC Integrated Application

OPERATIONAL Selection of Time and Place

TACTICAL Application of Finite Resources

TECHNICAL Isolated Capabilities

Military Sustainability

Civil Allies

Geographic Location

Over time and space

Channels & Borders

Of strategic value

Quantities & Distribution

Internally available for use

Volatility of sectors

Training & Maintenance

Mobility implications

Cohesion & Effectiveness

Military Systems One by One

Climate Manipulation

Civil Power, Transport, Communications,

& Finance

Military Availability

Civil Infrastructure

Geographic Terrain

Geographic Resources

Military Lethality

Military Reliability

Civil Psychology

Civil Stability

Geographic Atmosphere

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FAILING IN DETAIL

Military Sustainability

Civil Allies

Geographic Location

Military Availability

Civil Infrastructure

Geographic Terrain

Geographic Resources

Military Lethality

Military Reliability

Civil Psychology

Civil Stability

Geographic Atmosphere

F-

D-

C-

B-

STRATEGIC:What to Build

OPERATIONAL:When to Fight

TACTICAL: What to Use

TECHNICAL:How to Use It

Page 16: 1 OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc.

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MIXED REPORTS

• Allen Dulles (DCI): 80%

• Gordon Oehler (D/NPC): 80%

• Ward Elcock (DG/CSIS): 80%

• Joe Markowitz (D/COSPO): 40%

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COSTS OF SECRECY

• CLIENT ACCESS: too much, too late, too secret--doesn’t get due attention

• TRANSACTION COSTS: 10-100X OSINT

• OPPORTUNITY COSTS: classification of system deficiencies gives original contractors a lifetime system monopoly

• FUNCTIONAL COSTS: non-interoperability, operational disconnects

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PURPOSES OF SECRECY

“Everybody who’s a real practitioner, and I’m sure you’re not all naïve in this regard, realizes that there are two uses to which security classification is put: the legitimate desire to protect secrets, and protection of bureaucratic turf. As a practitioner of the real world, it’s about 90 bureaucratic turf; 10 legitimate secrets as far as I’m concerned.”

Rodney B. McDaniel Executive Secretary, National Security Council

Senior Director, (White House) Crisis Management Center

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VALUATION METRICS I

• TIMING: Is it “good enough” NOW

• CONTEXT: Is it “good enough” over-all, that is, does it provide a robust contextual understanding or is it a “tid-bit” in isolation?

• CONTENT: Is it “good enough” to improve the decision at hand? Can I share it?

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VALUATION METRICS II

• RETURN ON EXPOSURE: Does this information, openly available, attract other information that is equally useful? (10X)

• INCLUSIVENESS: Does this information, openly available, reach those who have a “need to know” that would not otherwise have been included in distribution? (20%)

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OSINT AND REALITY I

“If it is 85% accurate, on time, and I can share it, this is a lot more useful to me than a compendium of Top Secret Codeword material that is too much, too late, and needs a safe and three security officers to move it around the battlefield.”

U.S. Navy Wing Commander Leader of First Flight Over Baghdad Speaking at TIG-92, Naval War College

Page 22: 1 OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc.

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OSINT AND REALITY II

• Post-Cold War political-military issues tend to arise in lower Tier (per PDD-35) nations where U.S. classified capabilities are least applicable or largely unavailable.

• Warning of these largely Third World crises has not required classified collection.

• Approach and resolution has required increased reliance on international organizations and non-traditional coalition partners with whom information must be shared and who are not “cleared” for sensitive sources & methods.

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THE BURUNDI EXERCISE

• COMMISSION ON INTELLIGENCE (USA)

• ONE MAN, ONE ROLODEX, ONE DAY– Flag/CEO POL-MIL Briefs (Oxford Analytica)– Journalists on the Ground (LEXIS-NEXIS)– World-class academics (Inst. Sci. Info.)– 1:100,000 combat charts (Soviets via Eastview)– Tribal OOB and historical summary (Jane’s)– 1:50,000 combat imagery (SPOT Image)

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OPEN SOURCE MARKETPLACE

SOURCES SOFTWARE SERVICESCurrent Awareness Internet Tools Online Search & Retrieval (e.g. Individual Inc.) (e.g. NetOwl, Copernicus) (e.g. NERAC, Burwell Enterprises)

Current Contents Data Entry Tools Media Monitoring (e.g. ISI CC Online) (e.g. Vista, BBN, SRA) (e.g. FBIS via NTIS, BBC)

Directories of Experts Data Retrieval Tools Document Retrieval (e.g. Gale Research, TELTECH) (e.g. RetrievalWare, Calspan) (e.g. ISI Genuine Document)

Conference Proceedings Automated Abstracting Human Abstracting (e.g. British Library, CISTI) (e.g. NetOwl, DR-LINK) (e.g. NFAIS Members)

Commercial Online Sources Automated Translation Telephone Surveys (e.g. LN, DIALOG, STN, ORBIT) (e.g. SYSTRAN, SRA NTIS-JV) (e.g. Risa Sacks Associates)

Risk Assessment Reports Data Mining & Visualization Private Investigations (e.g. Forecast, Political Risk) (e.g. i2, MEMEX, Visible Decisions) (e.g. Cognos, Pinkertons, Parvus)

Maps & Charts Desktop Publishing & Market Research (e.g. East View Publications) Communications Tools (e.g. SIS, Fuld, Kirk Tyson)

Commercial Imagery Electronic Security Tools Strategic Forecasting (e.g. SPOT, Radarsat, Autometric) (e.g. SSI, PGP, IBM Cryptolopes) (e.g. Oxford Analytica)

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CURRENT AWARENESS BASICS

• DOW JONES INTERACTIVE (Media, BBC)

• DIALOG (Periodicals, Books, Conferences)

• BRITISH LIBRARY (Conference Papers)

• World News Connection (FBIS)

• COPERNICUS (Internet Profiles)

• LEXIS-NEXIS (Legal/Criminal/Personality)

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GEOSPACIAL SHORTFALLS

AFRICA ASIA & PACIFIC EUROPE & MED WESTERN HEMISPHERE

Algeria Bangladesh Greece Argentina

Angola China Turkey Bolivia

Djibouti Indonesia Brazil

Ethiopia Kazakhstan Colombia

Ghana Kyrgystan Ecuador

Kenya Malaysia Grenada

Liberia Myanmar Jamaica

Madagascar New Caledonia Mexico

Mozambique Papua New Guinea Paraguay

Namibia Russia Peru

South Africa Sri Lanka Suriname

Sudan Viet-Nam Uraguay

Uganda 4 Key Island Groups VenezuelaFor each of the above countries, less than 25% available in 1:50,000 form, generally old data.

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MAPS & CHARTS

Formerly classified Soviet maps

Some 1:50, global 1:100 coverage

Contour lines you can hide in….

Digital and printed, very low cost

Topographic, Geological, Nautical

Gazetteers, Indexes, Translations

They got the cable car right….

< www.cartographic.com >

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COMMERCIAL IMAGERY

10 meter imagery is 1:50,000 level and can provide contour lines.

Synoptic coverage and two-day revisit available globally on 24 hours notice.

Meets critical needs for creating maps, precision targeting, and mission rehearsal.

<www.spot.com>

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SOFTWARE FUNCTIONALITIES

• Monitor, alert• Search, browse, gist• Cluster, weight, summarize• Translate• Index, extract, stuff• Query, view, structure• Visualize, catalogue• Facilitate, inspire

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DATA VISUALIZATION

Analysts Notebook -- Link Analysis -- <www.i2inc.com>

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DATA EXPLOITATION SEARCHING

True Total Content Access

Flexible Retrieval

Dynamic Updating

Significantly Reduced Storage

In-Built Security

RETRIEVAL:

Boolean

Synonym

Sound-Ex

Garbled Searching

EXPLOITATION :

Ranking

Clustering

Feedback Analysis

<www.memex.com>

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DATA-ORIENTED SERVICES

• Online Searchers– Source-centric/each system unique– Subject-matter competence/learning curve– Foreign language competence/full access

• Document Retrieval– Copyright Compliance – Digitization

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HUMAN-ORIENTED SERVICES

• Human Collection Specialists– Telephone Surveys– Private Investigations– Market Research

• Human Processing Specialists– Commercial Imagery, Maps, Visualization– Data Warehouses, Multi-Source Processing

• Human Citation Analysis: World Mind Map

Page 34: 1 OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc.

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INFORMATION BROKERS

Highly recommended

“Local knowledge”

Indexed by location, subject-matter, and foreign language skill

www.burwellinc.com

Page 35: 1 OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc.

35Ikonos KVR-1000 IRS-1C/D in 3D SPOT Image RADARSAT LANDSAT

1M 2M 5M 10M 8-100M 30M

1M

2M

5M

20M

10M

30M

GEOSPACIAL VISUALIZATION

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CITATION ANALYSIS

KOBAYASHI Y 87

TILAK BV 92

MASTRAGO A 63

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OSINT ISSUE AREAS

• Operational Security– Understand requirement in all-source context– Conceal/protect client identity and interest

• Copyright Compliance– Get used to it

• Foreign Language Coverage• Source Validation

– OSINT assures authority, currency, confidence

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OSINT RULES OF THE GAME

• 80% of what you need is not online– 50% of that has not been published at all

• 60% of what you need is not in English

• 90% of the maps you need do not exist– but commercial imagery can address overnight

• 80% of the information is in private sector– must leverage distributed private knowledge

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INTERNET REALITY I (BAD)

• COSPO (USA) Survey: roughly 1% of Internet is real content, roughly 50 great sites, 500 good sites--the rest is pornography and opinion

• Internet is a cream puff in comparison to the kind of rich content/value added represented by commercial online services with editors/filters

• MCIA/Other Experience: Internet devours analysts--they get lost or they get addicted, either way their productivity is cut in half

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INTERNET REALITY II (GOOD)

• Internet is exquisite as a collaborative work environment, and for information sharing

• Internet has its uses (see OSINT HANDBOOK)– Indications & Warning (Tiananmen, Coup vs Gorby)

– Cultural Context (Bosnia, Islam, Indians in Mexico)

– Basic Research (card catalogues, lists, web sites)

– Science & Technology Collection (surprisingly good)

– Spotting & Assessment (trolling for potential agents)

• Internet will explode over time--early days yet

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OSINT IS A PROCESSPROCESS

• DISCOVERY--Know Who Knows– Just enough from just the right mix of sources

• DISCRIMINATION--Know What’s What– Rapid source evaluation and data validation

• DISTILLATION--Know What’s Hot– Answer the right question, in the right way

• DELIVERY--Know Who’s Who– It’s not delivered until right person understands

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INTEGRATED OSINT CONCEPT

Q A

DIRECT ACCESS:OSS-SRA TOOLKIT WITH TAILORED SOURCE ACCESS

MEDIATED ACCESS:OSS EXPERTS WITHPROPRIETARY SOURCE METADATABASE

Internet Stream

Offline Stream(“Gray Literature”)

Human Experts“On Demand”

PROCESSINGTOOLKIT PLUS OSS EXPERT ANALYSTS

PRODUCTIONTOOLKIT PLUS OSS EXPERT ANALYSTS

INTEGRATED ONE-STOP SHOPPING PROCESS Call Center -- Multi-Level Security -- Umbrella for Unified Billing

CommercialOnline Feeds

CommercialMaps & Images

FEEDBACK LOOPCLIENT OSS

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COLLECTION MANAGEMENT I

• TIP-OFF– Wires, Jane’s help more than they know

• TARGETING/CONSERVATION– Narrow the field for clandestine/covert assets

• CONTEXT/VALIDATION– Ideal for double-checking human assets/story

• COVER– Protects classified sources & methods

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COLLECTION MANAGEMENT II

“Do not send a spy where a schoolboy can go.”

“The problem with spies is they only know secrets.”

HUMINT

SIGINT

IMINT

MASINT

ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS

OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE

OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION

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CM III/ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS I

NEW “DIAMOND”PARADIGM

OLD “LINEAR”PARADIGM

Customer

Analyst

Collector

Source

Customer

Analyst Collector

Source

ACME OF SKILL IN 21ST CENTURY: Putting Customer with a Question in Touch with Source Able to Create New Tailored Knowledge in Real Time

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ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS II

• All-Source Analyst’s Role Must Change– Manage Network of Overt Sources– Manage Resources to Fund Overt Sources– Manage Classified Collection in Context– Manage Client’s Incoming Open Sources– Manage Client’s Needs for Open Intelligence

• Myopic Introverts Need Not Apply….

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ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS III

STRATEGIC Integrated Application

OPERATIONAL Selection of Time and Place

TACTICAL Application of Finite Resources

TECHNICAL Isolated Capabilities

Military Sustainability

Civil Allies

Geographic Location

Over time and space

Channels & Borders

Of strategic value

Quantities & Distribution

Internally available for use

Volatility of sectors

Training & Maintenance

Mobility implications

Cohesion & Effectiveness

Military Systems One by One

Climate Manipulation

Civil Power, Transport, Communications,

& Finance

Military Availability

Civil Infrastructure

Geographic Terrain

Geographic Resources

Military Lethality

Military Reliability

Civil Psychology

Civil Stability

Geographic Atmosphere

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THREAT ANALYSIS

• LIBYAN TANK EXAMPLE (1992)– Technical Level (Lethality): VERY HIGH– Tactical Level (Reliability): LOW – Operational Level (Availability): MEDIUM– Strategic Level (Sustainability): LOW

• We can no longer afford worst-case systems acquisition (and such systems are largely useless against 3 of 4 modern day threats)

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STRATEGIC GENERALIZATIONS

• Port utility Half

• Cross-country mobility Zip

• Bridge loading limitations 30T

• Intervisibility <900M

• Aviation temperature averages HOT

• Naval gunfire challenges 5” dies

• Language requirements Heavy

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COALITION OPERATIONS I

“… the concept of UN intelligence promises to turn traditional principles on their heads. Intelligence will have to be based on information that is collected primarily by overt means, that is by methods that do not threaten the target state or group and do not compromise the integrity or impartiality of the UN.”

Hugh Smith as cited by Sir David Ramsbotham

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COALITION OPERATIONS II

• Assure minimal common appreciation of situation including terrain and civil factors

• Enable information-sharing at unclassified level across national and civil-military lines

• Significantly enhance information integration within own forces

• Protect sensitive sources & methods

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COALITION OPERATIONS III

JOINTOSINT CELL

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COALITION OPERATIONS IV

CINC

G-2 G-3

PSYOP

POLAD

PAO

CIVILAFFAIRS

PROVOSTMARSHAL

COMBATENGINEERS

OSINT “NET”

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OSINT CELL I

• Functions should include– Current awareness briefs/tip-off “bundles”– Rapid response reference desk– Primary research– Strategic forecasting

• OSINT is a starting point for both the intelligence producer and the consumer

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OSINT CELL II

MEXICAN INSURGENCY Wednesday, 3 September 1997

Mass Media Stories (Commercial Online Services, Edited Content)

01 CHIAPAS INSURGENCY CONTINUESAssociated Press 1500 Words, “The Chiapas Insurgency continues to escalate, with 13 Mexican

soldiers 02 CHIAPAS LEADERSHIP VISITS GENEVA

Los Angeles Times 1631 Words, “The leaders of the Chiapas insurgencies03 YUKATAN KIDNAPPING OF U.S. BUSINESSMAN

El Tiempo, 764 Words, “Ayer en el sur de Mejico, un empresario Norte Americano fue sequestrado por

Journals (Peer Reviewed Journals, Mostly Off-Line)

01 MOST RELEVANT NEW ARTICLE“A Comparative Approach To Latin American Revolutions” (Wickham-Crowley, INT J COMP,

July 1902 MOST HEAVILY CITED RECENT ARTICLE

“Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of Chiapas, Mexico” (Howard, Philip and 03 MOST RELEVANT NEW FOREIGN LANGUAGE ARTICLE

“Tierra, Pobreza, y Los Indios: La Situacion Revolucionaria en Mejico” (Gonzalez, Juan Fernando,

Internet (Caution: Content Not Subject To Editorial Review)

01 NEW SITE MATCHING PROFILE, EZLN<http://www.ezln.org>

02 INCREASED ACTIVITY, OVER 1000 HITS YESTERDAY<http://www.eco.utexas.edu/faculty/Cleaver/chiapas95.html>

03 New Major Document, “Chiapas—El Pueblo Adelante!” (14 pages)<http://www.indians.org/welker/chiapas2.htm>

Click for full text

Number of lines per entry can be changed

EXPAND

EXPAND

EXPAND

Click for full list in section

Rough translation optional

Abstract may be online; copy can be ordered via email.

Documents can be provided; sites are pointers for client to access.

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OSINT CELL III

REQUIREMENTS OFFICER/ COLLECTION MANAGER

INTERNET SPECIALIST

COMMERCIAL ONLINE SPECIALIST

PRIMARY RESEARCH SPECIALIST

EXTERNAL SERVICESSPECIALIST

EDITOR/ANALYSTPRESENTATION MANAGER

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OSINT CELL IV

• Must be national in approach– Centralized coordination– Decentralized processing

• Problems will persist– Security, funding, cultural barriers– Training & education vacuum– Concepts & doctrine vacuum– Foreign language inadequacies

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OSINT BUDGET (GENERIC)

Bottom line: 1% of OPS or 5% of INTEL budget

Recommended national defense OSINT allocations (%):

Commercial Imagery Acquisition .166/YrJOINT VISION Ground Stations .033/YrUN/NATO/Regional OSINT Architecture .066/Yr Joint, Service, and Command OSINT Cells .100/YrDefense OSINT Training Program .016/Yr Defense Internet Seeding Program .016/Yr OSINT Analysts at Embassies with Funds.033/Yr OSINT Direct Support Program.550/Yr Contingency/Crisis OSINT Surge Program.016/Yr

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OSINT BUDGET (USA)

Bottom line: 1% of OPS or 5% of INTEL budget

Recommended national defense OSINT allocations (USA)*:

Commercial Imagery Acquisition 250M/Yr JOINT VISION Ground Stations (10@$5M)50M/Yr UN/NATO/Regional OSINT Architecture100M/Yr Joint, Service, and Command OSINT Cells (15@$10M)150M/Yr Defense OSINT Training Program

25M/Yr Defense Internet Seeding Program 25M/Yr OSINT Analysts at Embassies with Funds (100@$500K)50M/Yr OSINT Direct Support Program825M/Yr Contingency/Crisis OSINT Surge Program25M/Yr

* Supports 50,000 SI/TK analysts and 250,000 action officers

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CONCLUSION

• MILITARY CAN’T DO IT ALONE– Need Resources from Business, Academia– Need to Integrate Needs of Policy, Police

• MILITARY CAN TAKE THE LEAD– Has the Discipline and Command Structure– Has the Budget Flexibility– Has Best Trans-National Relationships

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IO BIG PICTURE

All-Source Intelligence (Spies, Satellites, and

Secrets)

Information Warfare

Information Peacekeeping

INFORMATION

OPERATIONS

“Don’t send a bullet where a byte will do….”

OSINT as Input

OSINT as Output

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VIRTUAL GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE

Global Distributed Knowledge

National Distributed Knowledge

Government Knowledge

Intelligence Community

1B 10B 100B 1 TRILLION

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STRIKING A NEW BALANCE

TECHNICAL $$

HUMINT $$

OSINT $$

LIFERS

MID-CAREER HIRES

1-179 DAY/YR TEMPORARY EXPERTS

IC MANNING IC DOLLARS

UNCLASSIFIED

SECRET

TS

IC PRODUCTION

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Four Threats, Four Defense Forms

HIC/MRC STRATEGIC NUCLEAR AND CONVENTIONAL

MILITARY WAR

SOLIC/LEA UNCONVENTIONAL

LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT AND GANG

WARFARE

IW/ECON INFORMATION WAR/ CRIME & ECONOMIC

ESPIONAGE

MINDWAR RELIGIOUS, POLITICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL

REFUGEES

PROLIFERATION/MIGRATION

JIHAD/ GREENPEACE

TERRORISM/ GLOBAL CRIME

INFOWAR/ ECONOMIC ESPIONAGE

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INFORMATION STRATEGY

• Military must work with rest of Nation• Four elements of information strategy:

1) Connectivity 2) Content access & validation nodes 3) Coordination of standards & investments 4) C4 security across the board

• OSINT, at root, is about creating a “smart nation” within which “smart organizations” can thrive and be effective at their mission--OSINT is the enabling net.

• OSINT impacts national security and competitiveness.

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OSINT BUILDING BLOCKS

Policy Intelligence

Military Intelligence

Law Enforcement Intelligence

Coalition Intelligence

Business Intelligence/OSINT

Mass & Niche Media Intelligence

Citizen Intelligence--Intelligence “Minuteman”

Basic, Advanced, & Corporate Education

Robert Steele, OSS NOTICES 31 May 1995, with Alvin Toffler; the concept of “Intelligence Minuteman” was developed by Alessandro Politi at OSS ‘92, and independently put forth and enhanced by Anthony Fedanzo in OSS READER.

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NEW GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS DOCTRINE

Information Driven

Government Operations

National Economic Council

Diplomatic and Other Information Peacekeeping Operations National Electronic Security

& Counterintelligence Program

Civilian Leaders

Conventional Military (High-Tech)

Special Operations (Low-Tech)

Information Warfare Corps

Transnational and Domestic Law Enforcement Operations

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REFERENCES I

“Open Source Intelligence: Private Sector Capabilities to Support DoD Policy, Acquisitions, and Operations" (Defense Daily Network, 4 March 1998) at <www.defensedaily.com/reports/osint.htm>

Open Source Intelligence: HANDBOOK (Joint Military Intelligence Training Center, October 1996) at <www.oss.net/HANDBOOK>

Open Source Intelligence: READER (OSS Inc., 1997) at <www.oss.net/READER>

Concept Paper: Creating a Bare Bones Capability for Open Source Support to Defense Intelligence Analysts (OSS Inc., 18 August 1997) at <www.oss.net/DIAReport>

“Open Source Intelligence: An Examination of Its Exploitation in the Defense Intelligence Community” (Major Robert M. Simmons, Joint Military Intelligence College, August 1995)

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REFERENCES II

“Virtual Intelligence: Conflict Resolution and Conflict Avoidance Through Information Peacekeeping”, Proceedings of the Virtual Diplomacy Conference of 1-2 April 1997 in Washington, D.C. (U.S. Institute of Peace) at <http://www.oss.net/VIRTUAL>

Intelligence and Counterintelligence: Proposed Program for the 21st Century (OSS Inc., 14 April 1997 at <http://www.oss.net/OSS21>)

“Information Peacekeeping: The Purest Form of War” in CYBERWAR: Myths, Mysteries, and Realities (AFCEA, 1998) at <www.oss.net/InfoPeace>

Other references including self-study OSINT lessons at <www.oss.net>.

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OSINT TRAINING

PacInfo ‘98OSINT and Complex Peacekeeping Ops 7-9 December 1998, Monterey, California

EuroIntel ‘99 OSINT and Terrorism, Crime, & Proliferation 9-11 March 1999, The Hague, The Netherlands

OSS ‘99 OSINT Sources & Methods 24-26 May 1999, Washington, D.C.

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A LITTLE FUN

*Sheep Lie…the official motto (and button) of CIA Mid-Career Course 101

Baaaa*