® New Rules for the New Craft of Intelligence Robert David Steele [email protected] Prepared 24 October 2002 From Chapter 15, The New Craft of Intelligence.

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New Rules for the New Craft of Intelligence

Robert David [email protected]

Prepared 24 October 2002From Chapter 15, The New Craft of Intelligence

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Rule 1Decision-Support is the Raison d’etre

• Data vs. information vs. intelligence

• Discovery, discrimination, distillation, delivery

• Intelligence defined by product, not source

• Answer the question!• Then ask, what next?

Question in Context Is?F1

F2

F3 Tools Thinking

What Next?F4

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Rule 2Value-added comes from analysis

• Analysis of all sources, rather than secret sources, are the core competency of the intelligence world.

• Problem with spies (and most analysts) is they only see 2% of the relevant information.

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Rule 3Global Coverage matters more

• Must go from 80% on “hard targets” to 80% on “global coverage.”

• Surprise is avoided only by casting a wide net in 29+ languages.

• Open sources are a national insurance policy against surprise

EXAMPLES:

• French Steel Industry

• India-Pakistan Nuclear Bake-Off

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Rule 4Non-traditional threats are critical

• Disease• Water scarcity• Energy scarcity• Genocide• Migration• Crime• Proliferation• Terrorism

®Rule 5

Intelligence without translation is ignorant

• USA failed to translate captured documents from first World Trade Center bombing and from Philippines

• Need global network of on-call translators in 31+ languages

• Web-based

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

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800

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1000 Chinese

Spanish

English

Arabic

Bengali

Hindi

Portuguese

Russian

Japanese

German

OSS Terrorism Project 1999Arabic, Catelan, Chinese, Danish, Dari, Dutch, English, Farsi, Finnish, French, German, Indonesian, Irish, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Kurdish, Kurmanji, Norwegian, Pashto, Polish, Portuguese, Russian, Serbian, Spanish, Swedish, Tamil, Turkish, Urdu

Millions

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Rule 6Sources (& methods) balance matters more

• Must strike better balance between– technical (-) and

human (+) collection

– secret (-) and open sources (+)

– collection (-) and processing (+)

– production (-) and reflection (+)

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Rule 7“Two levels down” is the new standard

• Nation-states are old targeting standard

• New standard is at the province, company, and individual level

• This is a double order of magnitude increase in the difficulty of being adequate

State Targets -- Lots of Assets

Organizational Targets -- Very Few Assets

Individual Targets -- Virtually No Assets

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Rule 8Processing matters more, is core competency

• Multi-lingual wide nets will dramatically increase complexity and amount to data

• Global coverage and multi-lateral alliances require global web-based processing

• Human productivity depends on processing

Philip Emeagwali received worldwide publicity in 1989 for using 65,000 processors to perform the world's fastest computation of 3.1 billion calculations per second.

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Rule 9Cultural intelligence is fundamental

• More important than political or economic or military intelligence

• Requires deep skills in history and language

• Cannot teach this--must hire those that already have it (e.g. second generation Arabs)

AnalyticQuestion

Chinese View

Arab View

Indian View

European View

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Rule 10Geospatial and time tagging are vital

• Given the increase in relevant data, automated pattern analysis and anomaly detection are vital.

• Geospatial and time attributes on all data enable intermediate processing.

Show me everything about this space in this timeframe, right now, on my desktop.

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Rule 11Global open source benchmarking mandatory

• In order to detect change around the world, a multi-national effort to benchmark global open sources is mandatory.

• This will set stage for “spikes” and patterns that can trigger classified collection.

Arabic, Catelan, Chinese, Danish, Dari, Dutch, English, Farsi, Finnish, French, German, Indonesian, Irish, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Kurdish, Kurmanji, Norwegian, Pashto, Polish, Portuguese, Russian, Serbian, Spanish, Swedish, Tamil, Turkish, Urdu

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Rule 12Counterintelligence matters more

• Counterintelligence must be a discipline in its own right, with protected funding and long-term specialists.

• Non-state terrorists who are already citizens require street-level counterintelligence.

U.S. Employee Traitors

U.S. Contractor

Traitors

Criminal & Espionage

Penetrations

U.S. & Foreign

Terrorists

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Rule 13Cross-fertilization matters more

• Old approach: consumer to analyst to collector to source--the linear paradigm

• New approach is the diamond paradigm where collectors and analysts help consumers talk directly to sources

Consumer

Source

Collector Analyst

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Rule 14Decentralized intelligence matters more

• In the age of distributed information, “central intelligence” is an oxymoron.

• Knowing who knows matters more than knowing something

• Just enough, just in time intelligence creation

N

M

LB

A

NM

RC

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Rule 15Collaborative Work & Informal Deals Rise

• Intelligence collectors and analysts will have personal “brands”

• Peer to peer networks will form quickly to tackle new problems

• Electronic access more important than physical location

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Rule 16New Value is Content + Context + Speed

• Old paradigm separated secrets from sources, and was insensitive to timing and context

• New paradigm places value on content in context, delivered at the right time.

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Rule 17Collection based on gaps versus priorities

• Priorities should rule only the first effort.

• After that, focus must be on gaps.

• Something on everything is better than everything on just a few targets.

• Global reach is helpful

® Conflict Facts for 200223 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC

Source: PIOOM (NL), data withpermission © 2002 A. Jongman

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Rule 18Collection doctrine more sophisticated

• FIND the data if you already know it

• GET the data if it can be gotten free from an ally or NATO or the church

• BUY the data from the private sector

• TASK classified collectors as a last resort

FIND -- free, internal

GET -- free, allies

BUY -- low cost

TASK -- expensive

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Rule 19Citizen “Intelligence Minutemen” Vital

• “Hive mind” is the essence of 21st Century intelligence

• Creating a Smart Nation depends on mobilizing and harnessing all citizens

• Virtual intelligence networks everywhere

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Rule 20Production based on needs versus capabilities

• Forget about routine or recurring production

• New craft demands that all products be tailored to specific needs

• Spend more time thinking, traveling, and talking to consumers--less time writing

OLD NEWProduce

Produce

Produce

Produce

Produce

Think

Travel

Converse

Network

Produce

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Rule 21Strategic intelligence matters more

• Estimative intelligence must be restored as one of the primary objectives of analysis

• Intelligence must support preventive action (in advance of the threat’s maturing), and budget trade-off decisions

FUTUREPAST

NOW OPTIONS

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Rule 22Budget intelligence is mandatory

• Analysis of the national budget is the best way of determining if policymakers are informed by intelligence

• When spending is not enough for certain threats, this deficiency must be made public.

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400 Diplomacy

Intelligence

Foreign Aid

Military

Education

Public Health

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Rule 23Public intelligence drives public policy

• Secret intelligence alone cannot assure public safety or sound policy, hidden costs

• Public intelligence estimates and public discussion of intelligence budgets is now essential

Selected Opinions

• McDaniel -- turf protection

• Moynihan -- high costs

• policymakers uninformed

• government not accountable

• public left out of debate

• Ellsberg -- conceals policy

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Rule 24Analysts are Managers, Collectors are Analysts

• Analysts must be managers of people, money, priorities, and information.

• Collectors must be analysts and bring to collection a deep knowledge of the target, the source, and the requirement.Analyst:from introvert in cubicle

to extrovert handling people.

Case officer from cowboy hip-shooter to thoughtful historian.

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Rule 25New Measures of Merit--ISO Standards

• Gross results no longer acceptable--numbers of reports, of recruitments,

• Evaluation based on usefulness of answers across all topics

• Need ISO standards that can be shared across multi-national boundaries

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Rule 26Multi-lateral burden sharing is vital

• We still need spies and secrets that no one else can find or learn.

• However, the great majority of intelligence in the future is only possible if we work together in multi-lateral teams.

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Seven Tribes--A Discussion

• Seven Tribes:– National

– Military

– Law Enforcement

– Business

– Academic

– NGO-Media

– Religious-Clan-Citizen

• Must unite the tribes!

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World Brain--A Possibility

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OPGVPN

Weekly Review

Expert Forum

DistanceLearning

VirtualLibrary

SharedCalendar

VirtualBudget

Shared24/7 Plot

SharedRolodex

Creating the World Brain:Web-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams

• Weekly report• Distance learning• Virtual library• Expert Forum• Shared directory• Shared calendar• Shared budget• Shared “plot” (map)

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United Nations--Possibly Useful

• Department of Public Information (DPI) is being restructured

• Secretary General wants global decision support network instead of 77 isolated libraries

• Need UN intelligence for peacekeeping ops