1 MRC-RFMMC MRC-RFMMC TOWARDS A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR TOWARDS A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASIN THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASIN 4 4 th th International Symposium on Flood Defense International Symposium on Flood Defense Toronto, 7 May 2008 Toronto, 7 May 2008
37
Embed
1 MRC-RFMMC TOWARDS A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASIN 4 th International Symposium on Flood Defense Toronto, 7 May 2008.
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
1
MRC-RFMMCMRC-RFMMC
TOWARDS A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM TOWARDS A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASINFOR THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASIN
44thth International Symposium on Flood Defense International Symposium on Flood DefenseToronto, 7 May 2008Toronto, 7 May 2008
MRC-RFMMCMRC-RFMMC
TOWARDS A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM TOWARDS A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASINFOR THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASIN
44thth International Symposium on Flood Defense International Symposium on Flood DefenseToronto, 7 May 2008Toronto, 7 May 2008
2
Introduction
Data
People
Model
IntroductionIntroduction Mekong River Commission
– Formed in 1995
– Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam
– Dialogue partners: China and Myanmar
Objectives– Joint management shared water resources
– Development of economic potential of the river
System
Sharing
Conclusions
Future
3
Introduction
Data
People
Model
IntroductionIntroduction Devastating floods in 2000, 2001, 2002
Between 1 and 8 million people affected
Flood Management and Mitigation Programme agreed upon
Funding about US $ 20 million
Operational since 2005
Objectives– Improve flood forecasts and flood data exchange
– Develop technical standards and training
System
Sharing
Conclusions
Future
4
Introduction
Data
People
Model
IntroductionIntroduction
System
Sharing
Conclusions
Future
“The Flood Management and Mitigation Programme (FMMP) aims to prevent, minimise or mitigate people’s suffering and economic losses due to floods, while preserving the environmental benefits of floods”
“The Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre in Phnom Penh is to provide timely and reliable flood forecasts for the Mekong mainstream.”
5
Introduction
Data
People
Model
IntroductionIntroduction RFMMC flood forecasting at present
– Short term 1-5 day forecasts
– 23 locations along Mekong River
– SSARR model
– Published at website
– Distributed by email
– Mandate is Flood ForecastSystem
Sharing
Conclusions
Future
6
Introduction
Data
People
Model
IntroductionIntroduction The objective is to produce a flood forecast.
For that we need– data
– people
– models
– system including procedures
And this may be the order of importance!
System
Sharing
ConclusionsFuture
7
Data RequirementsData Requirements Water level data
– Near real time water level main stream
– Near real time water level main tributaries
Rainfall Data– WMO GTS rainfall data
– Existing near real time rainfall data at agencies
– Extension of network of near real time rainfall stations
Includes a flexible macro language to fully couple the output with any hydrologic model
Uses publicly available digital elevation data from the NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission
Introduction
Data
People
Model
System
Sharing
Conclusions
Future
25
• Medium sized tributary
• Located in the central part of Lao PDR
• Joins the main river 55km downstream of Thakhek
• Catchment area of 9,300km2
• Mountainous in the east and flood plain in the west
Se Bang FaiSe Bang FaiIntroduction
Data
People
Model
System
Sharing
Conclusions
Future
26
• Flow at any location• Height at any location with a H-Q relationship
Se Bang FaiSe Bang FaiIntroduction
Data
People
Model
System
Sharing
Conclusions
Future
27
Se Bang FaiSe Bang FaiIntroduction
Data
People
Model
System
Sharing
Conclusions
Future
28
Model complexModel complex 50 models developed
Stage 1 upstream of Kratie– 40 models
Stage 2 downstream of Kratie– 10 models
Special module for Tonle Sap / Great Lake system
Ultimately linked to hydrodynamic models
Introduction
Data
People
Model
System
Sharing
Conclusions
Future
29
Introduction
Data
People
Model
FEWSFEWS
Delft FEWS selected– Open system, any model can be added
– No tie-in with one type of model supplier
– Very flexible – configuration to requirements user
– User-friendly interface
– No comparable alternatives
– Used worldwide by major national and international organizations
– Software free – license conditions apply
– Both stand-alone and on-line distributed
System
Sharing
Conclusions
Future
30
Introduction
Data
People
Model
ImplementationImplementation First FEWS missions in March 2008
– Building adapter FEWS-URBS
– Implementation data inputs
– RFMMC staff involved (continuity)
– June 2008: first implementation expected
– 2008 flood season: testing, parallel operation
The Mekong FEWS is a work in progress, only the first phase will be ready for the 2008 flood season
System
Sharing
Conclusions
Future
31
SystemSystem
screenshot MEKONG FEWS
32
Introduction
Data
People
Model
ProceduresProcedures
First mission August 2007– Documenting present situation
– Draft report September 2007
– And a manual of the present FFS
Second mission March 2008– Preparation to create two documents:
1. Policy document (in consultation)
2. Operational document (internal)
– Implementation for the 2008 flood season
System
Sharing
Conclusions
Future
33
ConclusionsConclusions Data
– Upgrade existing historical rain gauge stations– Extend existing rain gauge station network– Use mobile phone – SMS– Use manual rain gauges– Low tech, low budget, low O&M– Complementary to AHNIP and M-HYCOS– Secure direct access to AHNIP and M-HYCOS– Secure GTS connection for RFMMC
Introduction
Data
People
Model
System
Sharing
Conclusions
Future
34
ConclusionsConclusions Models
– URBS model selected as trial flood forecasting model
– Basic and advanced training of staff completed
– Program to develop & calibrate 50 models completed (March 2009)
– Overall Mekong model set up and working
– First model of Cambodian floodplain and Great Lake system operational
– Use during 2008 flood season with satellite rainfall and forecasts as inputs
Introduction
Data
People
Model
System
Sharing
Conclusions
Future
35
FutureFuture Data
– Conclude all MoU’s and Agreements
– Conclude support contracts with involved Agencies
– Start working with the Agencies
People– RFMMC staff involved in model maintenance and
further implementation of FEWS
– Regular refresher and advanced training
Introduction
Data
People
Model
System
Sharing
Conclusions
Future
36
FutureFuture Models
– Ongoing improvement of the URBS Mekong models
– Study into desirability hydrodynamic modeling
– Implementation of other models
System– Ongoing improvement of FEWS
– Implementation of other data sources
– Phase II: on-line distributed system (now stand-alone system)
– Use, testing and improvement of Operational Procedures
Introduction
Data
People
Model
System
Sharing
Conclusions
Future
37
Thank you very much for your Thank you very much for your attention !attention !