1. Introduction 2. The model and experimental design 3. Space-time structure of systematic error 4. Space-time structure of forecast error 5. Error growth.

Predictability of NCEP Coupled Forecast System (CFS)1. Introduction 2. The model and experimental design3. Space-time structure of systematic error 4. Space-time structure of forecast error 5. Error growth and predictability (Lorenz curves) 6. Summary and conclusion

Fig. 1. Systematic error of ensemble mean forecasts of monthly SST with respect to the lead time over the period 1981-2003. From top to bottom, December, March, June, and September forecast cases, respectively.

Fig. 2. 12-months averaging systematic error of monthly ensemble mean SST over the period 1981-2003 with respect to the lead time.

Fig. 3. 9-months averaging systematic error of monthly ensemble mean SST over the period 1981-2003 with respect to the 12 calendar months.

Fig. 4. Same as Fig. 1 except root-mean-square error after removing systematic error.

Fig. 5. RMS error of ensemble mean forecasts of the monthly mean NINO3, NINO4, NINO3.4 and NINO1.2 SST over the period 1981-2003, as a function of target month and lead month. Nino3 is defined as the spatial mean SST over 5oS-5oN and 170oW-120oW, Nino4 over 5oS-5oN and 90oW-150oW, Nino3.4 over 5oS-5oN and 160oE-150oW, and Nino1.2 over 10oS-equator and 80oW-90oW, respectively.

0.990.960.940.860.970.860.650.410.900.800.680.720.990.930.830.66Fig. 6. Time series of Nino 3 SST anomalies during 1981-2003 with respect to lead time. January, April, July, October SST anomalies, respectively.

Fig. 7. 9-months forecast error of Nino3 SST anomalies with initial conditions of all 12 calendar months. Thick solid lines denote ensemble mean and thin dashed lines denote each ensemble member.

Forecast errorEach memberLorenz curveEach memberDec ICJun ICFig. 8. Forecast error and Lorenz curve of Nino 3.4 and Nino 1.2 SST anomalies over 1981-2003 period. Upper panels for December initial condition case and lower for June initial conditions, respectively. Thick black line for ensemble mean forecast error and dashed grey lined for each ensemble member, and thick red line for ensemble mean Lorenz curve and dashed orange lined for ensemble members.

Fig. 9. Forecast error and Lorenz curve of Nino 3.4 and Nino 1.2 SST anomalies following to 3 segments of initial conditions over 1981-2003 period for December initial condition. Blue denotes first segment form 9th to 13th of the month, green for second covering 19th to 23th of the month, and red for last set including the second-to-last day of the month, the last day of the month, and 1st, 2nd and 3rd days of the next month. Solid line for forecast error and dashed line for Lorenz curve, respectively.

Fig. 10. Error growth rate.NINO3.4NINO1.2

Sheet1

lead time

z123456789

ICfile name

DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepcfs.mon.sst.01

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctcfs.mon.sst.02

FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovcfs.mon.sst.03

MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDeccfs.mon.sst.04

AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJancfs.mon.sst.05

MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebcfs.mon.sst.06

JunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarcfs.mon.sst.07

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprcfs.mon.sst.08

AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMaycfs.mon.sst.09

SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJuncfs.mon.sst.10

OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulcfs.mon.sst.11

NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugcfs.mon.sst.12

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep

mon123456789

Dec0.990.820.560.57

Jan0.980.800.650.66

Feb0.950.880.760.77

Mar0.900.910.840.85

Apr0.980.860.83-0.10

May0.980.920.93-0.03

Jun0.970.920.94-0.02

Jul0.950.93-0.250.01

Aug0.960.97-0.220.12

Sep0.990.97-0.260.43

Oct0.99-0.34-0.140.48

Nov0.99-0.290.060.39

ano123456789

Dec0.990.820.560.57

Jan0.980.800.650.66

Feb0.950.880.760.77

Mar0.900.910.840.85

Apr0.980.860.83-0.10

May0.980.920.93-0.03

Jun0.970.920.94-0.02

Jul0.950.93-0.250.01

Aug0.960.97-0.220.12

Sep0.990.97-0.260.43

Oct0.99-0.34-0.140.48

Nov0.99-0.290.880.39

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lead time

z123456789

ICfile name













mon123456789

Dec0.990.820.560.57

Jan0.980.800.650.66

Feb0.950.880.760.77

Mar0.900.910.840.85

Apr0.980.860.83-0.10

May0.980.920.93-0.03

Jun0.970.920.94-0.02

Jul0.950.93-0.250.01

Aug0.960.97-0.220.12

Sep0.990.97-0.260.43

Oct0.99-0.34-0.140.48

Nov0.99-0.290.060.39

ano

Dec0.990.820.560.57

Jan0.980.800.650.66

Feb0.950.880.760.77

Mar0.900.910.840.85

Apr0.980.860.83-0.10

May0.980.920.93-0.03

Jun0.970.920.94-0.02

Jul0.950.93-0.250.01

Aug0.960.97-0.220.12

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Nov0.99-0.290.880.39

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NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug

lead time123456789

IC

DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep1

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct2

FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov3

MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec4

AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan5

MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb6

JunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar7

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarApr8

AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMay9

SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun10

OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul11

NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug12

Sheet4

IC91011121319202122233031123

Dec37363534332726252423161514131215Jan

Jan36353433322625242322151413121114Feb

Feb34333231302423222120161514131215Mar

Mar37363534332726252423161514131215Apr

Apr36353433322625242322161514131215May

May37363534332726252423161514131215Jun

Jun36353433322625242322161514131215Jul

Jul37363534332726252423161514131215Aug

Aug37363534332726252423161514131215Sep

Sep36353433322625242322161514131215Oct

Oct37363534332726252423161514131215Nov

Nov36353433322625242322161514131215DEC

Jan9101112131920212223303112315Jan

Feb9101112131920212223303112314Feb

Mar9101112131920212223272812315Mar

Apr9101112131920212223303112315Apr

May9101112131920212223293012315May

Jun9101112131920212223303112315Jun

Jul9101112131920212223293012315Jul

Aug9101112131920212223303112315Aug

Sep9101112131920212223303112315Sep

Oct9101112131920212223293012315Oct

Nov9101112131920212223303112315Nov

DEC9101112131920212223293012315DEC

NINO12

DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

121112121212121212121212m150.3500.3280.3310.5220.3230.3300.5070.3860.4960.5040.4730.327

131213131313131313131313m140.3140.3430.4680.5700.3160.3370.5080.3750.5590.4900.4210.344

141314141414141414141414m130.3470.3640.4220.6140.3250.3880.5040.4070.5120.4160.4580.362

151415151515151515151515m120.3480.3690.4540.5830.3350.3970.4340.3430.5340.4110.4370.389

161516161616161616161616m110.2690.4170.5210.6540.4690.3650.5010.3680.5880.3640.4120.343

232220232223222323222322m100.4270.5270.4420.5470.4860.4180.6380.6040.3480.4410.4430.411

242321242324232424232423m090.4520.4650.3750.8270.6240.4830.5400.4700.4730.4940.4480.413

252422252425242525242524m080.4190.4620.4450.7850.5880.4980.5830.4930.3990.4290.5070.379

262523262526252626252625m070.4030.4860.5280.7120.6450.5780.6600.5890.5130.4540.4250.428

272624272627262727262726m060.4560.6010.5000.8290.6800.4720.6410.5630.5150.5060.4330.372

333230333233323333323332m050.4880.4690.4510.8840.7180.3550.6010.5300.5430.4570.4250.451

343331343334333434333433m040.4850.5250.4240.8730.7690.4740.6350.5390.6940.5340.4940.396

353432353435343535343534m030.4520.4760.5300.8720.7400.5730.6940.5600.6200.6120.4730.470

363533363536353636353635m020.5380.5670.5190.7450.6770.5940.7170.5840.6510.5720.4980.528

373634373637363737363736m010.5560.5700.5110.9640.7770.6220.7130.7630.5170.6060.6280.568

DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovNINO34FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

121112121212121212121212m150.1110.1160.1120.1120.1410.1840.2580.3410.3410.1490.1250.199

131213131313131313131313m140.1220.1320.1140.1140.1300.1960.2390.3270.3450.1790.1430.185

141314141414141414141414m130.1370.1370.1190.1190.1430.1770.2330.3180.3500.1480.1380.189

151415151515151515151515m120.1070.1470.1300.1300.1360.1890.2300.3040.3260.1440.1310.186

161516161616161616161616m110.1340.1680.1530.1530.1150.1480.2350.3120.3110.1590.1710.189

232220232223222323222322m100.1810.1570.1750.1750.2020.1980.3100.4270.3480.2090.2100.235

242321242324232424232423m090.1760.1740.1710.1710.2130.2330.2550.4240.2650.1800.2220.214

252422252425242525242524m080.1610.1470.2160.2160.2380.1920.3300.4890.2600.2090.2040.224

262523262526252626252625m070.1980.1800.2290.2290.2070.2320.3200.4270.3060.1960.3030.241

272624272627262727262726m060.2120.1760.1780.1780.1920.4050.3210.4420.3880.1810.2350.221

333230333233323333323332m050.2420.2380.2600.2600.1960.3270.3600.4940.4390.2540.2420.282

343331343334333434333433m040.2160.2420.2160.2160.2350.3610.3730.4440.4950.2930.2560.279

353432353435343535343534m030.2370.2210.2350.2350.1960.3370.4050.5510.4590.3100.2560.286

363533363536353636353635m020.2480.2400.2280.2280.2210.4090.4860.5840.4030.2510.2730.287

373634373637363737363736m010.2620.2040.3080.3080.1680.3400.4790.5520.5600.3670.2980.228

DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovNINO3JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

121112121212121212121212m150.1250.1730.2160.2710.1750.2460.3220.2870.2960.1960.1650.227

131213131313131313131313m140.1320.1910.2300.3360.1860.2820.3100.2800.2870.2000.1600.206

141314141414141414141414m130.1600.2110.2050.3560.1490.2580.2850.2530.2960.1630.1740.243

151415151515151515151515m120.1470.2220.2320.3260.1690.2300.2800.2600.3140.1800.1890.178

161516161616161616161616m110.1690.2630.2900.3200.1780.2070.2670.2730.2500.1890.2160.216

232220232223222323222322m100.1650.2840.2990.3980.2650.2970.4060.4630.3570.2300.2550.276

242321242324232424232423m090.1730.2670.2860.4100.2640.2990.2800.5160.3510.2190.3050.217

252422252425242525242524m080.2050.2810.3230.4380.2860.2890.3570.5200.2400.2470.3020.243

262523262526252626252625m070.1970.2830.3830.4140.3100.3790.3860.5270.3050.1650.3770.299

272624272627262727262726m060.2470.2870.3420.3950.3160.4280.3690.5060.3910.2240.3230.244

333230333233323333323332m050.2700.3370.3660.4630.3010.4000.3740.4930.4220.3070.3760.307

343331343334333434333433m040.2560.3350.3890.4570.4350.3940.3830.4440.4430.3070.3660.279

353432353435343535343534m030.2970.3150.3800.5010.3180.4310.4260.5100.4700.3850.3430.283

363533363536353636353635m020.3390.2670.4120.4490.3530.4680.4450.5670.4250.3000.3050.311

373634373637363737363736m010.2750.2890.4560.4890.3290.4040.5420.5310.5000.3990.3570.293


121112121212121212121212m150.1350.1210.1190.1600.1190.1090.1490.1860.1870.1180.1460.113

131213131313131313131313m140.1390.1230.1080.1710.1030.1080.1440.1900.1770.1690.1380.103

141314141414141414141414m130.1370.1280.1120.1410.1100.0950.1550.1890.1810.1320.1560.105

151415151515151515151515m120.1190.1620.1270.1340.1300.1070.1430.1970.1610.1420.1270.107

161516161616161616161616m110.1390.1430.1160.1320.1270.0780.1320.1890.1830.1370.1400.105

232220232223222323222322m100.2370.1700.1380.1930.1810.1200.1940.2390.2320.1760.1430.116

242321242324232424232423m090.2100.1840.1600.1680.2000.1250.2050.2330.2160.1910.1300.178

252422252425242525242524m080.2060.1600.1450.1870.2000.1200.1990.2580.2040.1660.1270.184

262523262526252626252625m070.2040.1970.1760.2060.1510.1220.1920.2290.2160.1980.1860.185

272624272627262727262726m060.2010.1600.1870.2090.1670.2070.1950.2050.2580.1600.1740.157

333230333233323333323332m050.2530.2010.2030.2090.2120.1390.2290.2780.2320.2010.2270.240

343331343334333434333433m040.2460.2330.2040.1660.1880.1830.2830.2880.3040.2730.2370.193

353432353435343535343534m030.2640.2410.1990.1970.1860.1850.2590.3370.2490.2220.2750.232

363533363536353636353635m020.2520.2420.1900.1750.2560.1910.3310.3490.2350.2190.2590.251

373634373637363737363736m010.2410.2260.1900.2190.2310.1930.2720.3590.3060.2420.2280.207

JAN

12

13

14

15

16

23

24

25

26

27

33

34

35

36

37

RMSE of NINO12

DAY

JAN (2)

12

13

14

15

16

23

24

25

26

27

33

34

35

36

37

RMSE of NINO34

DAY

JUL

12

13

14

15

16

22

23

24

25

26

32

33

34

35

36

RMSE of NINIO12

DAY

JUL(2)

12

13

14

15

16

22

23

24

25

26

32

33

34

35

36

RMSE of NINIO34

DAY

Sheet6

0.1350.1210.1190.160.1190.1090.1490.1860.1870.1180.1460.113

0.1390.1230.1080.1710.1030.1080.1440.190.1770.1690.1380.103

0.1370.1280.1120.1410.110.0950.1550.1890.1810.1320.1560.105

0.1190.1620.1270.1340.130.1070.1430.1970.1610.1420.1270.107

0.1390.1430.1160.1320.1270.0780.1320.1890.1830.1370.140.105

0.2370.170.1380.1930.1810.120.1940.2390.2320.1760.1430.116

0.210.1840.160.1680.20.1250.2050.2330.2160.1910.130.178

0.2060.160.1450.1870.20.120.1990.2580.2040.1660.1270.184

0.2040.1970.1760.2060.1510.1220.1920.2290.2160.1980.1860.185

0.2010.160.1870.2090.1670.2070.1950.2050.2580.160.1740.157

0.2530.2010.2030.2090.2120.1390.2290.2780.2320.2010.2270.24

0.2460.2330.2040.1660.1880.1830.2830.2880.3040.2730.2370.193

0.2640.2410.1990.1970.1860.1850.2590.3370.2490.2220.2750.232

0.2520.2420.190.1750.2560.1910.3310.3490.2350.2190.2590.251

0.2410.2260.190.2190.2310.1930.2720.3590.3060.2420.2280.207

Sheet1

lead time

z123456789

ICfile name













JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep

mon123456789

Dec0.990.820.560.57

Jan0.980.800.650.66

Feb0.950.880.760.77

Mar0.900.910.840.85

Apr0.980.860.83-0.10

May0.980.920.93-0.03

Jun0.970.920.94-0.02

Jul0.950.93-0.250.01

Aug0.960.97-0.220.12

Sep0.990.97-0.260.43

Oct0.99-0.34-0.140.48

Nov0.99-0.290.060.39

ano123456789

Dec0.990.820.560.57

Jan0.980.800.650.66

Feb0.950.880.760.77

Mar0.900.910.840.85

Apr0.980.860.83-0.10

May0.980.920.93-0.03

Jun0.970.920.94-0.02

Jul0.950.93-0.250.01

Aug0.960.97-0.220.12

Sep0.990.97-0.260.43

Oct0.99-0.34-0.140.48

Nov0.99-0.290.880.39

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z123456789

ICfile name













mon123456789

Dec0.990.820.560.57

Jan0.980.800.650.66

Feb0.950.880.760.77

Mar0.900.910.840.85

Apr0.980.860.83-0.10

May0.980.920.93-0.03

Jun0.970.920.94-0.02

Jul0.950.93-0.250.01

Aug0.960.97-0.220.12

Sep0.990.97-0.260.43

Oct0.99-0.34-0.140.48

Nov0.99-0.290.060.39

ano

Dec0.990.820.560.57

Jan0.980.800.650.66

Feb0.950.880.760.77

Mar0.900.910.840.85

Apr0.980.860.83-0.10

May0.980.920.93-0.03

Jun0.970.920.94-0.02

Jul0.950.93-0.250.01

Aug0.960.97-0.220.12

Sep0.990.97-0.260.43

Oct0.99-0.34-0.140.48

Nov0.99-0.290.880.39

Sheet3

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ICim+iz-1im+iz-1cfs.mon.sst.01












NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug

lead time123456789

IC

DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep1

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct2

FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov3

MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec4

AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan5

MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb6

JunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar7

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarApr8

AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMay9

SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun10

OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul11

NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug12

Sheet4

IC91011121319202122233031123

Dec37363534332726252423161514131215Jan

Jan36353433322625242322151413121114Feb

Feb34333231302423222120161514131215Mar

Mar37363534332726252423161514131215Apr

Apr36353433322625242322161514131215May

May37363534332726252423161514131215Jun

Jun36353433322625242322161514131215Jul

Jul37363534332726252423161514131215Aug

Aug37363534332726252423161514131215Sep

Sep36353433322625242322161514131215Oct

Oct37363534332726252423161514131215Nov

Nov36353433322625242322161514131215DEC

Jan9101112131920212223303112315Jan

Feb9101112131920212223303112314Feb

Mar9101112131920212223272812315Mar

Apr9101112131920212223303112315Apr

May9101112131920212223293012315May

Jun9101112131920212223303112315Jun

Jul9101112131920212223293012315Jul

Aug9101112131920212223303112315Aug

Sep9101112131920212223303112315Sep

Oct9101112131920212223293012315Oct

Nov9101112131920212223303112315Nov

DEC9101112131920212223293012315DEC

NINO12

DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

121112121212121212121212m150.3500.3280.3310.5220.3230.3300.5070.3860.4960.5040.4730.327

131213131313131313131313m140.3140.3430.4680.5700.3160.3370.5080.3750.5590.4900.4210.344

141314141414141414141414m130.3470.3640.4220.6140.3250.3880.5040.4070.5120.4160.4580.362

151415151515151515151515m120.3480.3690.4540.5830.3350.3970.4340.3430.5340.4110.4370.389

161516161616161616161616m110.2690.4170.5210.6540.4690.3650.5010.3680.5880.3640.4120.343

232220232223222323222322m100.4270.5270.4420.5470.4860.4180.6380.6040.3480.4410.4430.411

242321242324232424232423m090.4520.4650.3750.8270.6240.4830.5400.4700.4730.4940.4480.413

252422252425242525242524m080.4190.4620.4450.7850.5880.4980.5830.4930.3990.4290.5070.379

262523262526252626252625m070.4030.4860.5280.7120.6450.5780.6600.5890.5130.4540.4250.428

272624272627262727262726m060.4560.6010.5000.8290.6800.4720.6410.5630.5150.5060.4330.372

333230333233323333323332m050.4880.4690.4510.8840.7180.3550.6010.5300.5430.4570.4250.451

343331343334333434333433m040.4850.5250.4240.8730.7690.4740.6350.5390.6940.5340.4940.396

353432353435343535343534m030.4520.4760.5300.8720.7400.5730.6940.5600.6200.6120.4730.470

363533363536353636353635m020.5380.5670.5190.7450.6770.5940.7170.5840.6510.5720.4980.528

373634373637363737363736m010.5560.5700.5110.9640.7770.6220.7130.7630.5170.6060.6280.568

DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovNINO34FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

121112121212121212121212m150.1110.1160.1120.1120.1410.1840.2580.3410.3410.1490.1250.199

131213131313131313131313m140.1220.1320.1140.1140.1300.1960.2390.3270.3450.1790.1430.185

141314141414141414141414m130.1370.1370.1190.1190.1430.1770.2330.3180.3500.1480.1380.189

151415151515151515151515m120.1070.1470.1300.1300.1360.1890.2300.3040.3260.1440.1310.186

161516161616161616161616m110.1340.1680.1530.1530.1150.1480.2350.3120.3110.1590.1710.189

232220232223222323222322m100.1810.1570.1750.1750.2020.1980.3100.4270.3480.2090.2100.235

242321242324232424232423m090.1760.1740.1710.1710.2130.2330.2550.4240.2650.1800.2220.214

252422252425242525242524m080.1610.1470.2160.2160.2380.1920.3300.4890.2600.2090.2040.224

262523262526252626252625m070.1980.1800.2290.2290.2070.2320.3200.4270.3060.1960.3030.241

272624272627262727262726m060.2120.1760.1780.1780.1920.4050.3210.4420.3880.1810.2350.221

333230333233323333323332m050.2420.2380.2600.2600.1960.3270.3600.4940.4390.2540.2420.282

343331343334333434333433m040.2160.2420.2160.2160.2350.3610.3730.4440.4950.2930.2560.279

353432353435343535343534m030.2370.2210.2350.2350.1960.3370.4050.5510.4590.3100.2560.286

363533363536353636353635m020.2480.2400.2280.2280.2210.4090.4860.5840.4030.2510.2730.287

373634373637363737363736m010.2620.2040.3080.3080.1680.3400.4790.5520.5600.3670.2980.228


121112121212121212121212m150.1250.1730.2160.2710.1750.2460.3220.2870.2960.1960.1650.227

131213131313131313131313m140.1320.1910.2300.3360.1860.2820.3100.2800.2870.2000.1600.206

141314141414141414141414m130.1600.2110.2050.3560.1490.2580.2850.2530.2960.1630.1740.243

151415151515151515151515m120.1470.2220.2320.3260.1690.2300.2800.2600.3140.1800.1890.178

161516161616161616161616m110.1690.2630.2900.3200.1780.2070.2670.2730.2500.1890.2160.216

232220232223222323222322m100.1650.2840.2990.3980.2650.2970.4060.4630.3570.2300.2550.276

242321242324232424232423m090.1730.2670.2860.4100.2640.2990.2800.5160.3510.2190.3050.217

252422252425242525242524m080.2050.2810.3230.4380.2860.2890.3570.5200.2400.2470.3020.243

262523262526252626252625m070.1970.2830.3830.4140.3100.3790.3860.5270.3050.1650.3770.299

272624272627262727262726m060.2470.2870.3420.3950.3160.4280.3690.5060.3910.2240.3230.244

333230333233323333323332m050.2700.3370.3660.4630.3010.4000.3740.4930.4220.3070.3760.307

343331343334333434333433m040.2560.3350.3890.4570.4350.3940.3830.4440.4430.3070.3660.279

353432353435343535343534m030.2970.3150.3800.5010.3180.4310.4260.5100.4700.3850.3430.283

363533363536353636353635m020.3390.2670.4120.4490.3530.4680.4450.5670.4250.3000.3050.311

373634373637363737363736m010.2750.2890.4560.4890.3290.4040.5420.5310.5000.3990.3570.293


121112121212121212121212m150.1350.1210.1190.1600.1190.1090.1490.1860.1870.1180.1460.113

131213131313131313131313m140.1390.1230.1080.1710.1030.1080.1440.1900.1770.1690.1380.103

141314141414141414141414m130.1370.1280.1120.1410.1100.0950.1550.1890.1810.1320.1560.105

151415151515151515151515m120.1190.1620.1270.1340.1300.1070.1430.1970.1610.1420.1270.107

161516161616161616161616m110.1390.1430.1160.1320.1270.0780.1320.1890.1830.1370.1400.105

232220232223222323222322m100.2370.1700.1380.1930.1810.1200.1940.2390.2320.1760.1430.116

242321242324232424232423m090.2100.1840.1600.1680.2000.1250.2050.2330.2160.1910.1300.178

252422252425242525242524m080.2060.1600.1450.1870.2000.1200.1990.2580.2040.1660.1270.184

262523262526252626252625m070.2040.1970.1760.2060.1510.1220.1920.2290.2160.1980.1860.185

272624272627262727262726m060.2010.1600.1870.2090.1670.2070.1950.2050.2580.1600.1740.157

333230333233323333323332m050.2530.2010.2030.2090.2120.1390.2290.2780.2320.2010.2270.240

343331343334333434333433m040.2460.2330.2040.1660.1880.1830.2830.2880.3040.2730.2370.193

353432353435343535343534m030.2640.2410.1990.1970.1860.1850.2590.3370.2490.2220.2750.232

363533363536353636353635m020.2520.2420.1900.1750.2560.1910.3310.3490.2350.2190.2590.251

373634373637363737363736m010.2410.2260.1900.2190.2310.1930.2720.3590.3060.2420.2280.207

JAN

12

13

14

15

16

23

24

25

26

27

33

34

35

36

37

RMSE of NINO12

DAY

JAN (2)

12

13

14

15

16

23

24

25

26

27

33

34

35

36

37

RMSE of NINO34

DAY

JUL

12

13

14

15

16

22

23

24

25

26

32

33

34

35

36

RMSE of NINIO12

DAY

JUL(2)

12

13

14

15

16

22

23

24

25

26

32

33

34

35

36

RMSE of NINIO34

DAY

Sheet6

0.1350.1210.1190.160.1190.1090.1490.1860.1870.1180.1460.113

0.1390.1230.1080.1710.1030.1080.1440.190.1770.1690.1380.103

0.1370.1280.1120.1410.110.0950.1550.1890.1810.1320.1560.105

0.1190.1620.1270.1340.130.1070.1430.1970.1610.1420.1270.107

0.1390.1430.1160.1320.1270.0780.1320.1890.1830.1370.140.105

0.2370.170.1380.1930.1810.120.1940.2390.2320.1760.1430.116

0.210.1840.160.1680.20.1250.2050.2330.2160.1910.130.178

0.2060.160.1450.1870.20.120.1990.2580.2040.1660.1270.184

0.2040.1970.1760.2060.1510.1220.1920.2290.2160.1980.1860.185

0.2010.160.1870.2090.1670.2070.1950.2050.2580.160.1740.157

0.2530.2010.2030.2090.2120.1390.2290.2780.2320.2010.2270.24

0.2460.2330.2040.1660.1880.1830.2830.2880.3040.2730.2370.193

0.2640.2410.1990.1970.1860.1850.2590.3370.2490.2220.2750.232

0.2520.2420.190.1750.2560.1910.3310.3490.2350.2190.2590.251

0.2410.2260.190.2190.2310.1930.2720.3590.3060.2420.2280.207

Ensemble skill of anomalous monthly NINO indices

Forecast error and Lorenz curves: Dec IC forecast, anomalous SST anomalies

1. Introduction 2. The model and experimental design 3. Space-time structure of systematic error 4. Space-time structure of forecast error 5. Error growth.

Documents

systematic error of

error of nino3 sst anomalies

rms error of ensemble

square error

spatial mean sst

monthly mean nino3

error growth rate

ensemble members