1 Evolution of the Internet in the Post-PC Era (1965-2010+) Randy H. Katz The United Microelectronics Corporation Distinguished Professor Computer Science.

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Evolution of the Internetin the Post-PC Era

(1965-2010+)Randy H. Katz

The United Microelectronics Corporation Distinguished Professor

Computer Science Division, EECS Department

University of California, Berkeley

Berkeley, CA 94720-1776 USA

[email protected]

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Common Questions about the Internet

• Who invented the Internet?• Who owns the Internet?• How does the Internet scale?• Is it safe to use the Internet?• Where is the Internet going next?

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Evolution of the Computer

Eniac, 1947

Telephone,1876

Computer+ Modem

1957

Early WirelessPhones, 1978

First Color TVBroadcast, 1953

HBO Launched, 1972

Interactive TV, 1990

Handheld PortablePhones, 1990

First PCAltair,1974

IBMPC,

1981

AppleMac,1984

ApplePowerbook,

1990

IBMThinkpad,

1992

HPPalmtop,

1991

AppleNewton,

1993

PentiumPC, 1993

Red Herring, 10/99

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Game ConsolesPersonal Digital Assistants

Digital VCRs (TiVo, ReplayTV)

CommunicatorsSmart Telephones

E-Toys (Furby, Aibo)

Evolution of the Computer

PentiumPC, 1993

Atari HomePong, 1972

AppleiMac, 1998

Pentium IIPC, 1997

Palm VIIPDA, 1999

NetworkComputer,

1996

FreePC, 1999

SegaDreamcast,

1999

Internet-enabledSmart Phones,

1999

Red Herring, 10/99

Proliferation of diverseend devices and access networks

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Automobiles663 Million

Telephones1.5 Billion

Electronic Chips30 Billion

X-Internet

“X-Internet” Beyond the PC

Forrester Research, May 2001

93Million

407 Million

Internet Computers

Internet UsersToday’s Internet

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“X-Internet” Beyond the PC

Forrester Research, May 2001

0

5000

10000

1500020

01

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Millions

Year

XInternet

PCInternet

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The Shape of Things NOW!

• Siemens SL45– A cellular phone with voice

command, voice dialing, intelligent text for short messages

– An MP3 player & headset– A digital voice recorder– Supports “Mobile Internet” with

a built-in WAP Browser– Can store

» 45 minutes of music» 5 hours of voice notes» “Unlimited”

addresses/phone numbers

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After the PC …

• Not about gadgets or access technologies

• About services and applications• Increasing, not decreasing, diversity• Enabled by computing embedded in

communications fabric

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Internet vs. Telephone Net

• Strengths– Intelligence at ends– Decentralized control– Operates over

heterogeneous access technologies

• Weaknesses– No differential service– Variable performance delay – New functions difficult to

add since end nodes must be upgraded

– No trusted infrastructure

• Strengths– No end-point intelligence– Heterogeneous devices– Excellent voice

performance

• Weaknesses– Achieves performance by

overallocating resources– Difficult to add new

services to “Intelligent Network” due to complex call model

– Expensive approach for reliability

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Internet Growth

0

40

80

120

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

MillionServers

Annual Growth Rate > 50%

0

50

100

150

200

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

MillionU.S. Surfers

Annual Growth Rate > 20%

The Industry Standard, 2 July 2001

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The ARPANet

• Paul Baran– RAND Corp, early 1960s– Communications

networks that would survive a major enemy attack

• ARPANet: Research vehicle for “Resource Sharing Computer Networks”

– 2 September 1969: UCLA first node on the ARPANet

– December 1969: 4 nodes connected by phone lines

SRI940

UCLASigma 7

UCSBIBM 360

UtahPDP 10

IMPs

BBN team that implementedthe interface message processor

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ARPANet Evolves into Internet

Web HostingMultiple ISPsInternet2 BackboneInternet Exchanges

Application HostingASP: Application Service ProviderAIP: Application InfrastructureProvider (e-commerce tookit, etc.)

ARPANetSATNetPRNet

TCP/IP NSFNet Deregulation &Commercialization

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

WWW

ISPASPAIP

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15

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Parallel BackbonesQwest IP Backbone (Late 1999)Digex BackboneGTE Internetworking Backbone

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Network “Cloud”

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RegionalNet

Regional Nets + Backbone

RegionalNet Regional

Net

RegionalNet Regional

Net

RegionalNet

Backbone

LAN LANLAN

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ISP

Backbones + NAPs + ISPs

ISP

ISPISP

BusinessISP

ConsumerISP

LAN LANLAN

NAPNAP

Backbones

Dial-up

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CoreNetworks

Covad

Core Networks + Access Networks

@home

ISPCingular

Sprint AOL

LAN LANLAN

NAP

Dial-up

DSLAlways on

NAP

CableHead Ends

CellCell

Cell

SatelliteFixed Wireless

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Covad

Computers Inside the Core

@home

ISPCingular

Sprint AOL

LAN LANLAN

NAP

Dial-up

DSLAlways on

NAP

CableHead Ends

CellCell

Cell

SatelliteFixed Wireless

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Services Within the Network: Content

Distribution

“Internet Grid”Parallel Network BackbonesInternet Exchange Points

Co-Location

Scalable Servers

WebCaches

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P2P Services in the Internet:

Napster, Gnutella, Freenet, …

. . .

Steve Miller Like an Eagle

Steve Miller Space Cowboy

. . .

Directory Service

Register my copy

Find me a copy

Look here

Grid computing: sharing resources/enabling collaboration

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Services Within the Network:Streaming Media

Clients

Broadcasters

Content Broadcast

ManagementPlatform and

Tools

Steve McCanne

EdgeServers

Load Balancing ThruServer Redirection;

Content BroadcastNetwork

Content DistributionThrough MulticastOverlay Network

RedirectionFabricInter-ISP Redirection

Peering

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Scalable Services:Redirection and Load Balancing

Redirection

Delay + Load Information

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Scalable Services:Denial of Service

Redirection

Black Hole

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The iMode Story

• 24 million Internet-capable cellular phone subscribers (7/01)

– Charge by data volume, not connect time

• NTTDoCoMo becomes world’s largest ISP!

– 4500 test 3G subscribers (5/01)

• Most frequent used apps:– Voice + text messaging– Animated cartoons + special ringing

tones– Computer games– Music/image distribution

• Japanese teenage girls driving the competitive development of new services!

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Common Questions about the Internet

• Who invented the Internet?• Who owns the Internet?• How does the Internet scale?• Is it safe to use the Internet?• Where is the Internet going next?

• How can I make money on the Internet?

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Global Packet Network Internetworking(Connectivity)

ISPCLEC

A New Kind of Internet

Application-specificOverlay Networks

(Multicast Tunnels, Mgmt Svrcs)

Applications(Portals, E-Commerce,

E-Tainment, Media)

Application-specific Servers(Streaming Media, Transformation)ASP

InternetData Centers

Appl Infrastructure Services(Distribution, Caching,

Searching, Hosting)

AIPISV

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The Post-PC Era

• Not about specific Information Appliances• Services spanning access networks, to

achieve high performance/manage end device diversity

• Builds on the New Internet– Opening up of the connectivity “cloud”– Embedding computing in the communications fabric

• Pervasive support for “intelligent” services– Near you for faster access, more personalized, more

localized– Scalable to deal with surges in demand as needed

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