COMPANY UPDATE 05 JUN 2017 Hindustan Unilever BUY Remain positive We attended HUL’s annual investor meet. Our interaction with the company’s senior management has further increased our confidence on its earnings trajectory over the next two to three years. HUL’s key thrust areas are premiumisation, market development, product innovation and strengthening its core portfolio. HUL’s 19 brands account for >Rs 5bn revenue, of which six brands contribute >Rs 20bn, 5 brands >Rs 10bn and eight brands >5bn. Therefore, HUL has a very balanced portfolio of core brands. In the next three years, the Premium and Popular segments (61% of FMCG market) would further increase their share by ~2.5%. We expect that HUL would take the maximum advantage of this shift. We expect ~250-260bps (earlier ~200bps) EBITDA margin expansion over FY17-20, led by (1) Higher premium segment growth (2) Control on ASP (3) Operational efficiencies after GST (4) Better pricing power in improving consumer sentiments. We expect revenue/EBITDA/APAT CAGR of 11.9%/16.9%/19.0% respectively over FY17-20. HUL’s high valuation is natural, considering consistent market share gain with margin expansion and strong RoCE. We expect HUL to be a key beneficiary of GST and premiumisation. We increase our EPS estimates by 1.2% and 3.4% for FY18 and FY19 respectively. We maintain our target P/E at 40x on Jun-19EPS. Our TP is Rs 1,200 (Rs 1,140 earlier). We maintain a BUY rating. Near-term outlook: Stable raw material prices with healthy premium segment growth can expand margins in the coming quarters. GST implementation could be the factor to watch in the near term. We recommend investors to look at the company’s long term potential. Financial Summary (Rs mn) FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E FY20E Net Revenue 321,860 331,623 370,767 415,014 464,642 EBITDA 60,131 63,399 74,607 87,412 101,193 APAT 41,664 43,240 50,992 61,279 72,942 EPS (Rs) 19.3 20.0 23.6 28.3 33.7 P/E (x) 56.5 54.4 46.1 38.4 32.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 38.3 36.4 30.8 26.2 22.4 Core RoCE (%) 76.9 63.5 73.3 80.7 79.3 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research INDUSTRY FMCG CMP (as on 2 Jun 2017) Rs 1,086 Target Price Rs 1,200 Nifty 9,654 Sensex 31,273 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg HUVR IN No. of Shares (mn) 2,164 MCap (Rs bn)/(US$ mn) 2,351/36,485 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 1,170 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 1,103 / 782 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 23.8 30.7 25.1 Relative (%) 15.4 11.4 8.6 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters 67.20 FIs & Local MFs 5.66 FPIs 13.26 Public & Others 13.88 Source : BSE Naveen Trivedi [email protected]+91-22-6171-7324 HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters
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05 JUN 2017 Hindustan Unilever - Sakshi Business · COMPANY UPDATE 05 JUN 2017 Hindustan Unilever BUY . Remain positive . We attended HUL’s annual investor meet. Our interaction
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COMPANY UPDATE 05 JUN 2017
Hindustan Unilever BUY
Remain positive We attended HUL’s annual investor meet. Our interaction with the company’s senior management has further increased our confidence on its earnings trajectory over the next two to three years.
HUL’s key thrust areas are premiumisation, market development, product innovation and strengthening its core portfolio.
HUL’s 19 brands account for >Rs 5bn revenue, of which six brands contribute >Rs 20bn, 5 brands >Rs 10bn and eight brands >5bn. Therefore, HUL has a very balanced portfolio of core brands.
In the next three years, the Premium and Popular segments (61% of FMCG market) would further increase their share by ~2.5%. We expect that HUL would take the maximum advantage of this shift.
We expect ~250-260bps (earlier ~200bps) EBITDA margin expansion over FY17-20, led by (1) Higher premium segment growth (2) Control on ASP (3)
Operational efficiencies after GST (4) Better pricing power in improving consumer sentiments.
We expect revenue/EBITDA/APAT CAGR of 11.9%/16.9%/19.0% respectively over FY17-20.
HUL’s high valuation is natural, considering consistent market share gain with margin expansion and strong RoCE. We expect HUL to be a key beneficiary of GST and premiumisation. We increase our EPS estimates by 1.2% and 3.4% for FY18 and FY19 respectively. We maintain our target P/E at 40x on Jun-19EPS. Our TP is Rs 1,200 (Rs 1,140 earlier). We maintain a BUY rating. Near-term outlook: Stable raw material prices with
healthy premium segment growth can expand margins in the coming quarters. GST implementation could be the factor to watch in the near term. We recommend investors to look at the company’s long term potential.
HUL has five winning mantras (1) Wining with brands and innovation (2) Wining in the market place (3)
Wining through continuous improvement (4) Wining with people (5) Unilever Sustainable Living Plan.
(1) Wining With Brands and Innovation KEY THRUSTS ACTION/COVERAGE Strengthening the Core Surf Excel, Lux, Red Label, Kissan, Vim, Dove Building Brands with Purpose Covering large purpose area for Lifebuoy, Rin, Dove, Red Label Innovation Across Portfolio Dove Baby, Surf Excel Matic, Lakme Face Wash Market Development Green Tea, Face Wash, Body Wash, Hand Wash, Male Grooming, Liquid Detergent Addressing Needs of all Consumers Coverage based on customer need and customer profile
Strengthening Naturals Indulekha Oil, Citra, Vim with pudhina Ayush Portfolio - Toothpaste, Face Wash, Soap, Face Cream, Shampoo, Handwash
Magic Craftsmanship Differentiated content on TV, Website, Social Media, E-commerce Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
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HUL: COMPANY UPDATE
(2) Wining in the Market Place KEY THRUSTS ACTION/COVERAGE Winining in Many Indias (WIMI) Cluster specific mixes - Content, Communication, Schemes Effective Coverage and Asortment More throughput from more stores Partner of choice across channels Strengthening the existing channels, Building channels of the future (3) Wining Through Continuous Improvement KEY THRUSTS ACTION/COVERAGE Profitable Growth End-to-end cost focus, Effective business model, Pricing Everyday Customer Service Customer focus at point of sale, zero defects, customer reach Building Back-End Capabilities Order mgt to Shipment planning to Shipment tendring to Tracking to Reporting (4) Wining With people KEY THRUSTS ACTION/COVERAGE Flexible and Agile Many employee friendly policies Diversity and Inclusion 36% of managers are Women Employee Wellbeing Focus on positive work environment Founders Mentality The unilever foundry (5) Unilever Sustainable Living Plan KEY THRUSTS ACTION/COVERAGE Enhancing Livelihood Rural empowerment through project Shakti, Many initiatives to support students Swachh Aadat Swachh Bharat Hyigine education Water Conversation Education to famers
Sustainable sourcing 100% tomatoes used in Ketchup sourced from sustainable sources 46% Tea (16% in 2011) sourced from sustainable sources
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
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HUL: COMPANY UPDATE
Personal Care (48% of revenue, 65% of EBIT): Making core brands aspirational
HUL’s key thrust is on making core brands aspirational. The company plans to accelerate the premiumisation and market development initiatives. Hair care portfolio (especially shampoo) has a large
coverage and suffices all consumer needs. In the skin care segment, HUL has 40% market share in the overall premium skin lightening market
Iconic brands position and size Consumption Driven Penetration Driven
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Enter into ~Rs 10bn baby care market Building specialist brands
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
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HUL: COMPANY UPDATE
Home Care (34% of revenue, 21% of EBIT): Premiumisation Driven
HUL plans to aggressively drive premiumisation of its laundry portfolio. Surf Excel and Rin are continually gaining share in the laundry segment. Surf Excel has registered double digit-growth for the last many quarters. Developing
formats of the future. Many products like fabric conditioners, dish wash liquids and purifiers are future products in the home care segment.
Laundry Portfolio Straddles the Pyramid Reaching out to prospective consumers directly
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Innovate for premiumisation Recovery in Wheel
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Only 1 in 10 washes uses HUL’s premium laundry power, while 4 in 10 washes uses HUL products. Premiumisation can change this mix in the coming years
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HUL: COMPANY UPDATE
Refreshment (15% of revenue, 13% of EBIT): Many opportunities
HUL’s strategy is to win in the core portfolio through offer better products and build emotional connect of consumer to brands. HUL’s consistent focus is on
market development and creating high margin categories.
Strong market position Consistently growing ahead of the market
Foods (3% of revenue, 1% of EBIT): Significant growth prospects
Despite HUL touching the Rs 10bn market in the food business, there are still enough growth opportunities in this segment for the company. In this segment, all its brands are at the number 1 position. However,
category penetration is still very low, especially in the rural side. The focus area is low penetration categories with emphasis on the premium segment.
Strengthening the core Leadership in core categories
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
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HUL: COMPANY UPDATE
Segmental Performance
Personal Care Performance Particulars (Rs mn) Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Revenue 38,171 40,413 40,905 37,700 38,986 40,280 39,802 40,750 YoY Gr. (%)
Home care EBIT margin expansion has changed the EBIT mix for the segment by 330bps YoY. However, there is still room for further margin expansion PC business maintains high margin. Segment growth was encouraging and we expect growth to accelerate in the coming quarters
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HUL: COMPANY UPDATE
Quarterly Financials Year to March (Rs mn) 4QFY17 4QFY16 YoY Chg 3QFY17 QoQ Chg Net Sales 81,000 75,850 6.8 75,125 7.8 Other Operating Income 1,130 1,363 (17.1) 1,935 (41.6) Total Income 82,130 77,213 6.4 77,060 6.6 Material Expenses 40,220 37,688 6.7 37,447 7.4 Employee Expenses 3,880 4,426 (12.3) 4,093 (5.2) ASP 8,530 8,655 (1.4) 8,851 (3.6) Other Operating Expenses 12,990 11,720 10.8 13,115 (1.0) EBITDA 16,510 14,725 12.1 13,554 21.8 Depreciation 1,080 875 23.4 1,002 7.8 EBIT 15,430 13,850 11.4 12,552 22.9 Other Income 830 1,014 (18.1) 824 0.7 Interest Cost 60 20 200.0 46 31.6 PBT 16,190 15,356 5.4 14,861 8.9 Tax 4,030 3,850 4.7 4,482 (10.1) RPAT 11,830 11,156 6.0 10,379 14.0 EO Items (Adj For Tax) (7) 372 (102.0) 1,069 (100.7) APAT 11,837 10,784 9.8 9,310 27.1 EPS (Adjusted) 5.5 5.0 9.7 4.3 27.1 As % Of Net Revenue
Revenue recovered and grew by 6.4% with 3% UVG while UVG was down by 4% in 3QFY17 60% of portfolio gained market share GM declined by marginally 16bps to 51% Employee expenses were down by 12% as bonus was in 4QFY16. Employee expense was up by 3% in FY17 ASP expense has rationalised by 1.4% and stood at 10.4% of sales. ASP expense was down by 4% in FY17 EBITDA margin expanded by 103bps to 20.1%
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HUL: COMPANY UPDATE
Quarterly Segmental Year to March (Rs mn) 4QFY17 4QFY16 % Change 3QFY17 % Change Segmental Revenues
Home Care 30,040 27,980 7.4 26,891 11.7 Personal Care (PC) 40,750 37,700 8.1 39,802 2.4 Foods 2,950 2,880 2.4 2,785 5.9 Refreshment 13,000 11,760 10.5 11,641 11.7 Others 2,010 2,890 (30.4) 1,954 2.9 Total 88,750 83,210 6.7 83,073 6.8 Segmental EBIT
Home Care 3,890 3,020 28.8 2,342 66.1 Personal Care (PC) 9,840 9,030 9.0 9,208 6.9 Foods 280 381 (26.5) 261 7.1 Refreshment 2,190 1,943 12.7 1,713 27.9 Others (40) 135 (129.6) (166) (75.8) Total 16,160 14,509 11.4 13,359 21.0 (a) Interest Cost & Bank Charges 60 20 200.0 46 31.6 (b) Other Un-allocable Expenses (90) (850) (89.4) (1,548) (94.2) PBT 16,190 15,339 5.5 14,862 8.9 Capital Employed
Home Care (4,450) (2,640) na (5,354) na Personal Care (PC) 2,820 (1,580) na 795 254.9 Foods 460 330 39.4 129 255.5 Refreshment 7,350 8,940 (17.8) 6,306 16.6 Others 900 1,290 (30.2) 831 8.3 Total 7,080 6,340 11.7 2,707 161.6 Unallocable Capital Employed 57,820 56,520 2.3 50,581 14.3 Total Capital Employed 64,900 62,860 3.2 53,288 21.8 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
EBIT Margin Year to March (Rs mn) 4QFY17 4QFY16 YoY Chg 3QFY17 QoQ Chg Home Care 12.9 10.8 216 8.7 424 Personal Care (PC) 24.1 24.0 19 23.1 101 Foods 9.5 13.2 (374) 9.4 11 Refreshment 16.8 16.5 32 14.7 213 Others (2.0) 4.7 (667) (8.5) na Total 18.2 17.4 77 16.1 213 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Home care reported healthy 7% growth. Laundry biz was driven by the premium segment. Surf sustained double digit growth even in difficult scenario. Vim liquid maintained healthy growth PC registered healthy 8% growth after many quarters. Soaps premiumisation with pickup in hair care and skin care supported growth. Oral care still struggling but new launch Lever Ayush receiving good response Refreshment maintained healthy growth driven by broad based double digit growth in Tea Home care EBIT margin expanded significantly. Mgt expects more upside in margin driven by higher premium segment growth PC maintain the strong EBIT margin of 24%
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HUL: COMPANY UPDATE
Net Revenue Growth Underlying Volume Growth
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research EBITDA APAT
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Net revenue growth accelerated after weak performance in many quarters After registering negative UVG for previous two quarters, HUL came back hard with 4% UVG Consistent expansion in EBITDA margin for HUL for the last 5 years NPM continued to expand and reached to 14% during quarter
9.7
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5.0 4.1
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(0.7)
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HUL: COMPANY UPDATE
Personal Care Performance Home Care Performance
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Refreshment Performance Food Performance
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
PC segment growth rate remained under pressure. Oral care and Soaps dragging the performance Home care segment maintained positive growth driven by premium segment Refreshment has been consistently growing at high single digit. Tea has been showing healthy volume growth Food performance remain volatile
Total 4.0 3.0 11.4 11.6 11.6 Gross Margin (%) 50.7 51.0 51.8 52.3 52.5 ASP (% of sales) 11.4 10.7 11.0 11.0 11.0 Distribution (% of sales) 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 EBITDA Margin (%) 18.7 19.1 20.1 21.1 21.8 ETR (%) 31.2 30.5 30.0 29.5 29.5 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
HUL’s healthy 4QFY17 performance came when most of the other peers struggling for growth We expect HUL would sustain healthy growth in the coming quarters We expect HUL’s revenue growth would accelerate in the coming years owing to higher premiumisation, market share gain from unorganised sector (post GST) and better direct reach Better monsoon can further accelerate rural growth in the ensuing quarters We expect HUL can expand 250-260bps EBITDA margin over FY17-20 driven by higher premium segment growth, operational efficiencies through GST and better control on ASP
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HUL Dabur Emami Marico Bajaj Corp
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HUL Dabur Emami Marico Bajaj Corp
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HUL: COMPANY UPDATE
Estimates Change
FY18E FY19E
OLD NEW Chg (%) OLD NEW Chg (%) Net Sales 3,70,767 3,70,767 - 4,15,014 4,15,014 - EBITDA 73,566 74,607 1.4 86,039 87,412 1.6 APAT 50,386 50,992 1.2 59,256 61,279 3.4 EPS 23.3 23.6 1.2 27.4 28.3 3.4 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period
Date CMP Reco Target 28-Oct-16 840 NEU 920 24-Jan-17 862 NEU 925 14-Apr-17 925 NEU 954 18-May-17 1,009 BUY 1,140
5-Jun-17 1,086 BUY 1,200
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HUL: COMPANY UPDATE
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