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The Future of English?
This book is about the English language in
the 21st century: about who will speak it
and for what purposes. It is a practical
brieng document, written for
educationists, politicians, managers
indeed any decision maker or planning
team with a professional interest in the
development of English worldwide.
The Future of English? takes stock of the
present, apparently unassailable, position of
English in the world and asks whether we
can expect its status to remain unchanged
during the coming decades of
unprecedented social and economic global
change. The book explores the possible
long-term impact on English of
developments in communications
technology, growing economic
globalisation and major demographic shifts.
The Future of English? examines the
complex mix of material and cultural
trends which will shape the global destiny
of the English language and concludes that
the future is more complex and less
predictable than has usually been assumed.
The book has been commissioned by the
British Council to complement the many
texts already available about the teaching
and learning of English, the history and
development of English and the diversity
of forms of English worldwide. It is
intended to stimulate constructive debate
about the future status of English which
can inform policy developments both in
the British Council and other organisations
concerned with the promotion of English
language teaching and learning.
The book is divided into ve main
sections, each followed by a summary of
main points and references. The rst
section explains how English came to
reach its present position in the world.
Section two examines techniques of
forecasting, identies the patterns which
underlie typical linguistic change and
describes the way large corporations have
used scenario planning as a strategy for
coping with unpredictable futures. Section
three outlines signicant global trends
which will shape the social and economic
world in the 21st century. Section four
discusses the impacts these trends are
already having on language and
communication in everyday life.
The last section summarises implications
for the English language and outlines ways
in which we might reach a better
understanding of the status which English
will hold in the 21st century world. This
concluding section also argues for a
reassessment of the role played by British
providers of ELT goods and services in
promoting a global brand image for
Britain.
A guide to forecasting the popularity of theEnglish language in
the 21st century
David Graddol
What is this book about?
First published 1997 The British Council 1997, 2000
All Rights Reserved
This digital edition created by The English Company (UK) Ltd
David Graddol hereby asserts and gives notice of his right under
section 77 of the UK Copyright,Designs and Patents Act 1988 to be
identified as the author ofthis work.
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Why worry now?Why worry now about the global future of the
Englishlanguage? Is it not the first language of capitalism in
aworld in which socialism and communism have largelydisappeared? Is
it not the main language of internationalcommerce and trade in a
world where these sectors seemincreasingly to drive the cultural
and political? Has it notmore cultural resources, in the sense of
works of litera-ture, films and television programmes, than any
otherlanguage? Is it not, as The Economist has described
it,impregnably established as the world standardlanguage: an
intrinsic part of the global communicationsrevolution? (The
Economist, 21 December 1996, p. 39)Isnt it obvious, in other words,
that the Englishlanguage will continue to grow in popularity and
influ-ence, without the need for special study or
strategicmanagement?
The simple answer to all these questions is probablyyes. There
is no imminent danger to the Englishlanguage, nor to its global
popularity a fact which isrecognised by the majority of people who
are professio-nally concerned with the English language
worldwide(Figure 1). The press release for the launch of the
BritishCouncils English 2000 project in 1995 summarised theposition
of English:
World-wide, there are over 1,400 million people living
incountries where English has official status. One out of five
ofthe worlds population speak English to some level ofcompetence.
Demand from the other four fifths is increa-sing. ... By the year
2000 it is estimated that over one billionpeople will be learning
English. English is the mainlanguage of books, newspapers, airports
and air-traffic cont-rol, international business and academic
conferences,science technology, diplomacy, sport, international
competi-tions, pop music and advertising.
Fin de sicleThe position of English as a world language may seem
tobe so entrenched and secure that agonising over wherewe are and
where we are going might be regarded asno more than a fin de sicle
indulgence. The end of the19th century was characterised by much
heart searchingover the state of society evident in social
behaviour andexperimentation, fiction, scientific writing and
legislativereform prompted by a concern at the social consequ-ences
of the industrial revolution. How much greatermight be the mood of
self-reflection at the end of amillennium, when the communications
revolution andeconomic globalisation seem to be destroying the
reassu-ring geographical and linguistic basis of sovereignty
andnational identity. How many titles of social and econo-mics
books include the word end or the prefix post:The end of history,
the post-industrial societies,post-modernism, post-capitalism,
post-feminism.There is a general awareness of change, but no
clearvision of where it may all be leading. It seems we are notyet
living in a new era, but have fallen off the edge of anold one.
But there are reasons why we ought to take stock andreassess the
place of English in the world. The future ofthe English language
may not be straightforward: celeb-ratory statistics should be
treated with caution.
This book examines some facts, trends and ideaswhich may be
uncomfortable to many native speakers.For example, the economic
dominance of OECD count-ries which has helped circulate English in
the newmarket economies of the world is being eroded asAsian
economies grow and become the source, ratherthan the recipient, of
cultural and economic flows.Population statistics suggest that the
populations of therich countries are ageing and that in the coming
decadesyoung adults with disposable income will be found inAsia and
Latin America rather than in the US andEurope. Educational trends
in many countries suggestthat languages other than English are
already providingsignificant competition in school curricula.
The Future of English? identifies such significant globaltrends
in economics, technology and culture whichmay affect the learning
and use of English internatio-nally in the 21st century. We suggest
that the close of the20th century is a time of global transition
and that a newworld order is emerging. The period of most
rapidchange is likely to last about 20 years and can be expec-ted
to be an uncomfortable and at times traumaticexperience for many of
the worlds citizens. During thisperiod, the conditions will be
established for more settledglobal relations which may stabilise
about 2050. Hencethe next 20 years or so will be a critical time
for theEnglish language and for those who depend upon it.
Thepatterns of usage and public attitudes to English whichdevelop
during this period will have long-term implicat-ions for its future
in the world.
In this book we argue that the global popularity ofEnglish is in
no immediate danger, but that it would befoolhardy to imagine that
its pre-eminent position as aworld language will not be challenged
in some worldregions and domains of use as the economic,
demograp-hic and political shape of the world is transformed.
A language in transitionAs the world is in transition, so the
English language isitself taking new forms. This, of course, has
always beentrue: English has changed substantially in the 1500
yearsor so of its use, reflecting patterns of contact with
otherlanguages and the changing communication needs ofpeople. But
in many parts of the world, as English istaken into the fabric of
social life, it acquires a momen-tum and vitality of its own,
developing in ways whichreflect local culture and languages, while
diverging incre-asingly from the kind of English spoken in Britain
orNorth America.
English is also used for more purposes than everbefore.
Everywhere it is at the leading edge of technolo-gical and
scientific development, new thinking ineconomics and management,
new literatures and enter-tainment genres. These give rise to new
vocabularies,grammatical forms and ways of speaking and
writing.Nowhere is the effect of this expansion of English intonew
domains seen more clearly than in communicationon the Internet and
the development of net English.
But the language is, in another way, at a criticalmoment in its
global career: within a decade or so, thenumber of people who speak
English as a secondlanguage will exceed the number of native
speakers. The
Overview
2 The Future of English?
English is widely regarded as having become the global language
but will itretain its pre-eminence in the 21st century? The world
in which it is used is inthe early stages of major social, economic
and demographic transition.Although English is unlikely to be
displaced as the worlds most importantlanguage, the future is more
complex and less certain than some assume.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Agre
e
No vi
ew
Disag
ree
Figure 1 Will English remainthe worlds language?
Composite responses to theBritish Councils English
2000 Global ConsultationQuestionnaire
A world in transition
WWWENGLISH 2000http://www.britcoun.org/english/enge2000.htm
ENGLISH CO UK LTDhttp://www.english.co.uk/
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implications of this are likely to be far reaching: thecentre of
authority regarding the language will shift fromnative speakers as
they become minority stakeholders inthe global resource. Their
literature and television mayno longer provide the focal point of a
global Englishlanguage culture, their teachers no longer form
theunchallenged authoritative models for learners.
Contradictory trendsMany of the trends that are documented here
are notsimply driving forces whose impact and consequencescan be
easily predicted. And in so far as they are under-stood they appear
to be leading in contradictory direc-tions tendencies to increasing
use of English arecounterposed by others which lead to a
reducingenthusiasm for the language. On the one hand, the useof
English as a global lingua franca requires intelligibilityand the
setting and maintenance of standards. On theother hand, the
increasing adoption of English as asecond language, where it takes
on local forms, is leadingto fragmentation and diversity. No longer
is it the case, ifit ever was, that English unifies all who speak
it.
These competing trends will give rise to a less predi-ctable
context within which the English language will belearned and used.
There is, therefore, no way of preci-sely predicting the future of
English since its spread andcontinued vitality is driven by such
contradictory forces.As David Crystal has commented:
There has never been a language so widely spread or spokenby so
many people as English. There are therefore no prece-dents to help
us see what happens to a language when itachieves genuine world
status. (Crystal, 1997, p. 139)
The likelihood, as this book demonstrates, is that thefuture for
English will be a complex and plural one. Thelanguage will grow in
usage and variety, yet simulta-neously diminish in relative global
importance. We mayfind the hegemony of English replaced by an
oligarchyof languages, including Spanish and Chinese. To put itin
economic terms, the size of the global market for theEnglish
language may increase in absolute terms, but itsmarket share will
probably fall.
A new world eraAccording to many economists, cultural theorists
andpolitical scientists, the new world order expected toappear in
the 21st century will represent a significantdiscontinuity with
previous centuries. The Internet andrelated information
technologies, for example, mayupset the traditional patterns of
communication uponwhich institutional and national cultures have
been built.We have entered a period in which language
andcommunication will play a more central role than everbefore in
economic, political and cultural life just at themoment in history
that a global language has emerged.
There are signs already of an associated shift of socialvalues
which may have a significant impact on the futuredecision-making of
organisations, governments andconsumers. Some commentators predict
that, just asenvironmental issues were once regarded as less
impor-tant than the need for profit, so issues of social equity
willform a third bottom line in the global business environ-ment.
This suggests that those who promote the globaluse of English will
be burdened with new social responsi-bilities and may have to
engage with a more complexpublic agenda, including ethical issues
relating to lingu-istic human rights.
The Future of English? thus explores a range of topics witha
common theme: the changing world which affects ouruse of language.
Its primary purpose is to stimulateinformed debate about the global
future of English andthe implications both for British providers of
Englishlanguage services and the institutions and enterpriseswith
which they work overseas. For this reason, the bookaims to provide
thought-provoking ideas rather than firmpredictions. It points to
areas of uncertainty and doubt where an understanding of local
issues will be as valuableas that of global trends. Many of the
issues the bookaddresses will be of interest to a wide range of
people,both specialists and professionals, but also members ofthe
general public. These issues raise such questions as:
l How many people will speak English in the year2050?
l What role will English play in their lives? Will theyenjoy the
rich cultural resources the English languageoffers or will they
simply use English as a vehicularlanguage like a tool of their
trade?
l What effects will economic globalisation have on thedemand for
English?
l Will the emergence of world regions encouragelingua francas
which challenge the position ofEnglish?
l How does English help the economic modernisationof newly
industrialised countries?
l Is the Internet the electronic flagship of globalEnglish?
l Will the growth of global satellite TV, such as CNNand MTV,
teach the worlds youth US English?
l Will the spread of English lead to over half of theworlds
languages becoming extinct?
l Is it true that the English language will prove to be avital
resource and benefit to Britain in the comingcentury, giving it a
key economic advantage overEuropean competitors?
Commentators vary greatly in attitudes towards, andexpectations
of, global English. At one extreme, there isan unproblematic
assumption that the world will eventu-ally speak English and that
this will facilitate the culturaland economic dominance of
native-speaking countries(especially the US). Such a view is
challenged, however,by the growing assertiveness of countries
adoptingEnglish as a second language that English is now
theirlanguage, through which they can express their ownvalues and
identities, create their own intellectual propertyand export goods
and services to other countries.
The spread of English in recent years is, by anycriterion, a
remarkable phenomenon. But the closer oneexamines the historical
causes and current trends, themore it becomes apparent that the
future of English willbe more complex, more demanding of
understandingand more challenging for the position of
native-speakingcountries than has hitherto been supposed.
This book is neither triumphalist nor alarmist, butseeks to
chart some of the territory, to stimulate a moreinformed debate
which can, in turn, help all those con-cerned with the future of
English prepare for thesignificant changes the 21st century will
bring.
The Future of English? 3
The future of English will be more complex, moredemanding of
understanding and more
challenging for the position of native-speakingcountries than
has hitherto been supposed.
What have been theheroic failures of the pastin predicting the
number
of English speakers?p. 18
Jurassic Park grossed $6min India in 1994. But in
what language?p. 47
385 million people willbe employed in world
tourist services by 2006.Will they all need
English?p. 36
How many people willspeak English in 2050?
p. 27
Questioning the future
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Book highlights
4 The Future of English?
Crystal, D. (1997) English as a Global Language. Cambridge:
Cambridge UniversityPress.
The Economist (1996) Language and Electronics: the coming global
tongue. 21December, pp. 379.
Further readingThere are many books now available which examine
the social and linguisticcontexts in which English developed
historically. The Future of English? hasbeen written to complement
the following books in particular:
Crystal, D. (1997) English as a Global Language. Cambridge:
Cambridge UniversityPress.
Graddol, D., Leith, D. and Swann, J. (1996) (eds) English:
history, diversity andchange. London: Routledge/Open
University.
Maybin, J. and Mercer, N. (1996) (eds) Using English: from
conversation to canon.London: Routledge/Open University.
Mercer, N. and Swann, J. (1996) (eds) Learning English:
development and diversity.London: Routledge/Open University.
Goodman, S. and Graddol, D. (1996) (eds) Redesigning English:
new texts, newidentities. London: Routledge/Open University.
SourcesA composite list of sources for the tables and figures in
this book can be found
on the inside back cover.
NoteAll references to $ in this text are to US$. 1 billion =
1,000 million; 1 trillion =
1,000,000 million
1 English and the international economyThe shifting patterns of
trade and new working practices (suchas the growing prevalence of
screen-based labour) whichfollow globalisation are affecting the
use of the Englishlanguage in complex ways. At present there is a
considerableincrease in the numbers of people learning and using
English,but a closer examination of driving forces suggests that
thelong-term growth of the learning of English is less secure
thanmight at first appear.
2 English and global cultureAs the number of people using
English grows, so second-language speakers are drawn towards the
inner circle offirst-language speakers and foreign-language
speakers to theouter circle of second-language speakers. During
this statusmigration, attitudes and needs in respect of the
language willchange; the English language will diversify and other
countrieswill emerge to compete with the older,
native-speakingcountries in both the English language-teaching
industry andin the global market for cultural resources and
intellectualproperty in English.
3 English as a leading-edge phenomenonEnglish is closely
associated with the leading edge of globalscientific,
technological, economic and cultural developments,where it has been
unrivalled in its influence in the late 20thcentury. But we cannot
simply extrapolate from the last fewdecades and assume this trend
will continue unchanged. Infour key sectors, the present dominance
of English can beexpected to give way to a wider mix of languages:
first, theglobal audio-visual market and especially satellite TV;
second,the Internet and computer-based communication
includinglanguage-related and document handling software;
third,technology transfer and associated processes in
economicglobalisation; fourth, foreign-language learning especially
indeveloping countries where growing regional trade may makeother
languages of increasing economic importance.
4 A bilingual futureThere is a growing belief amongst language
professionals thatthe future will be a bilingual one, in which an
increasingproportion of the worlds population will be fluent
speakers ofmore than one language. For the last few hundred
yearsEnglish has been dominated by monolingual speakersinterests:
there is little to help us understand what will happento English
when the majority of the people and institutionswho use it do so as
a second language.
5 Social value shiftsThe spread of English has been made more
rapid in recentyears as a consequence of decisions and actions
taken bygovernments, institutions and individuals. This process
hasbeen guided by a logic of economic rationalism.
However,significant social value shifts may occur in public
opinion,making social equity as important a factor in public policy
aseconomic issues, and quality of life as important as income
inpersonal life choices. Such value shifts would foreground
thecomplex ethical issues associated with the world dominance ofa
single language and cause a reassessment of the impact ofEnglish on
other cultures, national identities and educationalopportunities
for the worlds non-English speaking citizens.The economic argument
for English may also be challenged asdeveloping countries make more
careful evaluations of thecosts and benefits of mass educational
programmes in theEnglish language.
6 Need for scenario buildingThis book suggests that development
work should be put inhand towards the building and testing of
scenarios whichencompass a range of possible futures for English in
key areas.A Delphi panel of experts (p. 23) in different regions of
theworld could be invited to respond to the scenarios and
helpestablish local understandings of the changing role of
English.Such qualitative work should go hand-in-hand with
thecollection of key statistics and trend data.
References
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English today
The Future of English? 5
1l The legacy of history
Britains colonial expansion established the pre-conditions for
theglobal use of English, taking the language from its island
birthplace tosettlements around the world. The English language has
grown up incontact with many others, making it a hybrid language
which canrapidly evolve to meet new cultural and communicative
needs.
l English in the 20th century The story of English in the 20th
century has been closely linked tothe rise of the US as a
superpower that has spread the Englishlanguage alongside its
economic, technological and cultural inuence.In the same period,
the international importance of other Europeanlanguages, especially
French, has declined.
l Who speaks English?There are three kinds of English speaker:
those who speak it as a rstlanguage, those for whom it is a second
or additional language andthose who learn it as a foreign language.
Native speakers may feel thelanguage belongs to them, but it will
be those who speak English asa second or foreign language who will
determine its world future.
l Language hierarchiesLanguages are not equal in political or
social status, particularly inmultilingual contexts. How does
English relate to other languages in amultilingual speakers
repertoire? Why does someone use Englishrather than a local
language? What characteristic patterns are there inthe use of
English by non-native speakers?
Looking at the past is an important step towardsunderstanding
the future. Any serious study of Englishin the 21st century must
start by examining howEnglish came to be in its current state and
spoken bythose who speak it. What factors have ensured thespread of
English? What does this process tell usabout the fate of languages
in unique political andcultural contexts? In what domains of
knowledge hasEnglish developed particular importance and
howrecently?
English is remarkable for its diversity, its propensity tochange
and be changed. This has resulted in both avariety of forms of
English, but also a diversity ofcultural contexts within which
English is used in dailylife. The main areas of development in the
use andform of English will undoubtedly come from non-native
speakers. How many are there and where arethey located? And when
and why do they use Englishinstead of their rst language? We need
to be awareof the different place that English has in the lives
ofnative speakers, second-language users and thosewho learn it as a
foreign language.
This section examines the development of English,identies those
languages which have historicallyrivalled English as a world
language and explains thespecial place that English has in
multilingual countriesand in the repertoires of multilingual
speakers. Byshowing how our present arose from the past, we willbe
better equipped to speculate on what the futuremight hold in
store.
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The colonial periodThe English language has been associated with
migrat-ion since its first origins the language came into beingin
the 5th century with patterns of people movementand resettlement.
But as a world language its historybegan in the 17th century, most
notably in the foundat-ion of the American colonies. Many European
powerswere similarly expanding: French, Dutch, Portugueseand
Spanish became established as colonial languages,the latter two
still important outside Europe in LatinAmerica. But in the 19th
century the British empire,with its distinctive mix of trade and
cultural politics,consolidated the world position of English,
creating alanguage on which the sun never sets.
The rise of the nation stateIn Europe of the middle ages, power
was distributedbetween Church, sovereign and local barons,
creatingmultiple agencies of social control, government and
landmanagement. Even in the 1500s, a monarch such asCharles V ruled
geographically dispersed parts ofEurope. But by the 17th and 18th
centuries, the nationstate had emerged as a territorial basis for
administrationand cultural identity. Yet language diversity was
exten-sive and many language boundaries crossed the bordersof newly
emerging states. Each nation state requiredtherefore an internal
lingua franca, subject like otherinstruments of state to central
regulation, which couldact as a vehicle of governance and as an
emblem ofnational identity. National languages, not existing
inEurope prior to the creation of nation states, had to
beconstructed. Consequently, the English language
wasself-consciously expanded and reconstructed to serve thepurposes
of a national language.
Profound cultural as well as political changes affectedthe
English language. Modern institutions of sciencewere founded, such
as the Royal Society in Britain;language was added to the
scientific agenda and madean object of study alongside
investigations of the naturalworld. New words and ways of writing
in English weredeveloped. For a time, scholars and clerics who
regularlytravelled across the boundaries of national
languagescontinued to use Latin as their lingua franca. But
asknowledge of Latin declined and the rise of merchantand
professional classes produced travellers unschooledin Latin, people
sought alternative means of internatio-nal communication.
The idea of a national language being a requirementfor a nation
state has remained a powerful one. The20th century process of
decolonisation created a drive toestablish new national languages
which could provide anintegrated identity for multi-ethnic states
set up on theEuropean model. Few countries were as bold
asSingapore, in adopting a multi-language formula whichreflected
the ethnic languages of the new state. Even inIndia, Hindi is the
sole national language and Englishtechnically an associate. In some
countries a new natio-nal language had to be created such as
BahasaMalaysia which raised the status of Malay into a national
language in a way similar to the 17th century extensionof
English in vocabulary and function.
Nation states are getting more plentiful there arenow over 180
states represented at the UN and oneconsequence of the break-up of
larger territories intoseparate states has been the emergence of
new nationallanguages. Simultaneously, the role of the nation state
isbeing weakened as economic globalisation, regionaltrading blocs
and new multilateral political affiliationslimit national spheres
of control. Nevertheless, the deathof the nation state is much
exaggerated. National educa-tion systems, for example, play a major
role in determi-ning which languages in the world are taught
andlearned. The role of nation states is changing but is byno means
abolished.
The emergence of national varietiesThe attempt to fix and
ascertain the English language,made in the 18th and 19th centuries,
was never entirelysuccessful: the language has continued to adapt
itselfswiftly to new circumstances and people. And it was notjust
Britain which desired a national language fromEnglish. Noah
Websters proposed reforms of theAmerican spelling system, some of
which give it a distin-ctive appearance in print, were intended
explicitly tocreate a national linguistic identity for the newly
inde-pendent country:
The question now occurs; ought the Americans to retainthese
faults which produce innumerable inconveniences inthe acquisition
and use of the language, or ought they atonce to reform these
abuses, and introduce order and regu-larity into the orthography of
the American tongue? ... acapital advantage of this reform ...
would be, that it wouldmake a difference between the English
orthography and theAmerican. ... a national language is a band of
nationalunion. ... Let us seize the present moment, and establish
anational language as well as a national government.(Webster,
1789)
There are an increasing number of national stan-dards, including
those related to the New Englisheswhich have appeared in former
colonial countries suchas Singapore. Each standard is supported (or
soon maybe) by national dictionaries, grammars and style
sheets.Nevertheless, no central authority has ever existed,either
nationally or globally, which can regulate thelanguage.
A hybrid and exible languageEnglish has always been an evolving
language andlanguage contact has been an important driver ofchange.
First from Celtic and Latin, later fromScandinavian and Norman
French, more recently fromthe many other languages spoken in the
British colonies,the English language has borrowed freely. Some
analystssee this hybridity and permeability of English as
definingfeatures, allowing it to expand quickly into new domainsand
explaining in part its success as a world language.
One of the few certainties associated with the futureof English
is that it will continue to evolve, reflecting andconstructing the
changing roles and identities of its spea-kers. Yet we are now at a
significant point of evolution:at the end of the 20th century, the
close relationship thathas previously existed between language,
territory andcultural identity is being challenged by globalising
forces.The impact of such trends will shape the contexts inwhich
English is learned and used in the 21st century.
The legacy of history
6 The Future of English?
Britains colonial expansion established the pre-conditions for
the global useof English, taking the language from its island
birthplace to settlementsaround the world. The English language has
grown up in contact with manyothers, making it a hybrid language
which can rapidly evolve to meet newcultural and communicative
needs.
Is English the mostwidely spoken languagein the world today? p.
8
Will future language usebe shaped by time zonerather than
geography inthe 21st century?p. 53
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The Future of English? 7
1 Pre-English period ( c. AD 450) The origins of English are,
for a language, surprisingly well docu-mented. At the time of the
Roman invasion c.55 BC, the indigenouslanguages of Britain were
Celtic, of which there were two mainbranches (corresponding to
modern Gaelic and Welsh). TheRomans made Latin an official language
of culture and govern-ment, probably resulting in many communities
in Britain beco-ming bilingual Celtic-Latin. Garrisons of troops
then arrived fromelsewhere in the Roman empire, particularly Gaul,
another Celticarea. In some points, the English language has
repeated this earlyhistory of Latin: it was brought into many
countries in the 17th to19th centuries as the language of a
colonial power and made thelanguage of administration, spoken by a
social elite, but not usedby the majority of the population. It
served, moreover, as an inter-national lingua franca amongst the
elites of many countries. Butthe use of Latin rapidly declined in
the 17th and 18th centuries.Will English share this fate?
2 Early Old English (c.450c.850) The English language developed
after the Anglo-Saxon invasionc.449 AD, when the Romans left
Britain and new settlers broughtGermanic dialects from mainland
Europe. Latin was still an impor-tant written language because of
the Church and many Latinwords were introduced into Old English
during this early period,but the language developed a new form: the
first English literarytexts appeared.
3 Later Old English (c.8501100) This was a time of invasion and
settlement from Scandinavia (theVikings) and a time of language
change. In the north of Englanddialects of English were extensively
influenced by Scandinavianlanguages. In the south, King Alfred,
concerned about fallingeducational standards, arranged for many
Latin texts to be transla-ted into English.
4 Middle English (c.11001450)The Norman Conquest (1066) and rule
brought about many lingu-istic changes. French, now the official
language in England, affec-ted English vocabulary and spelling. The
grammar of English wasalso radically transformed. Whereas Old
English expressed gram-matical relations through inflections (word
endings), MiddleEnglish lost many inflections and used word order
to mark thegrammatical function of nouns. Educated people probably
neededto be trilingual in French, Latin and English. It was a
flourishingperiod for English literature. Writers included Geoffrey
Chaucer,whose language is beginning to look like modern
English.
5 Early Modern English (c.14501750) This period spans the
Renaissance, the Elizabethan era andShakespeare. It is the period
when the nation states of Europe tooktheir modern form. The role of
the Church and Latin declined. InEngland, key institutions of
science, such as the Royal Society,were established and, by the end
of the 17th century, theoreticianslike Isaac Newton were writing
their discoveries in English ratherthan Latin.
Britain grew commercially and acquired overseas colonies.
Englishwas taken to the Americas (first colony at Jamestown,
Virginia1607) and India (first trading post at Surat 1614). With
the rise ofprinting (first printed book in English 1473) English
acquired astable typographic identity. Teaching English as a
foreign languagebegan in the 16th century, first in Holland and
France.
6 Modern English (c.17501950) English had become a national
language. Many attempts weremade to standardise and fix the
language with dictionaries andgrammars (Johnsons Dictionary 1755,
the Oxford English Dictionary18581928). The industrial revolution
triggered off a globalrestructuring of work and leisure which made
English the internat-ional language of advertising and consumerism.
The telegraph waspatented in 1837, linking English-speaking
communities aroundthe world and establishing English as the major
language for wireservices. As Britain consolidated imperial power,
English-mediumeducation was introduced in many parts of the world.
The interna-tional use of French declined. The first international
series ofEnglish language-teaching texts was published from Britain
in 1938and the worlds first TV commercial was broadcast in the US
in1941. English emerged as the most popular working language
fortransnational institutions.
7 Late Modern English (c.1950) With Britains retreat from the
empire, local and partially standar-dised varieties of English have
emerged in newly independentcountries. ELT has become a major
private-sector industry. In theaftermath of World War II, the US
became a global economic andcultural presence, making American
English the dominant worldvariety. The first geostationary
communications satellites werelaunched (Early Bird 1965) and the
Internet was invented (US1970s). A world market in audio-visual
products was created andsoap operas such as Dallas circulated the
globe. Worldwide Englishlanguage TV channels began (CNN
International launched 1989).Meanwhile, English has acquired new
electronic forms, as the frag-ment of a textual interaction from a
north European reflector forInternet Relay Chat shows:
Moonhoo joined (total 22) cam someone ping me please action
fires a harpoon at Moonhoo. whispers: U all dont sound to awfullly
excited :(:( North the host is a geek though Moonhoo: youre lagged
bigtime.
Gefeng a be feaxe (nalas for fhe mearn)Gu-Geata leod Grendles
modor;
brgd a beadwe heard, a he gebolgen ws,feorhgenilan, t heo on
flet gebeah.
Beowulf seizes Grendels mother by the hair: a fragment from the
epic Old English poem composed c. 750
A common writing: whereby two, although not understanding one
the others language, yet by the helpe
thereof, may communicate their minds one to another. ... The
harshness of the stile, I hope, will be corrected by
the readers ingenuity.Preface to A Common Writing, Francis
Lodwick, 1647
And preie God save the king, that is lord of this langage, and
alle that him feith berith and obeieth, everich in his degre, the
more and the lasse. But considere wel that I ne usurpe not to have
founden this werk of my labour
or of myn engyn.Prologue of A Treatise on the Astrolabe,
Geoffrey Chaucer, 1391
Seven ages of EnglishThis page provides an overview of the
history of English, from its birth in the 5th century to the
present day
-
The rise of the USBy the end of the 19th century, Britain had
establishedthe pre-conditions for English as a global
language.Communities of English speakers were settled aroundthe
world and, along with them, patterns of trade andcommunication. Yet
the world position of English mighthave declined with the empire,
like the languages ofother European colonial powers, such as
Portugal andthe Netherlands, had it not been for the dramatic rise
ofthe US in the 20th century as a world superpower.There were,
indeed, two other European linguisticcontenders which could have
established themselves asthe global lingua franca French and
German. Eco(1995) suggests:
Had Hitler won World War II and had the USA been redu-ced to a
confederation of banana republics, we wouldprobably today use
German as a universal vehicularlanguage, and Japanese electronic
firms would advertisetheir products in Hong Kong airport duty-free
shops(Zollfreie Waren) in German. (Eco, 1995, p. 331)
This is probably a disingenuous idea: the US wasdestined to be
the most powerful of the industrialisedcountries because of its own
natural and human resour-ces. The US is today the worlds third most
populouscountry with around 260 million inhabitants. Not
surpri-sing therefore that it now accounts for the
greaterproportion of the total number of native English spea-kers.
According to Table 1, which uses data generatedby the engco
forecasting model (described more fully onp. 64), only Chinese has
more first-language users. Whilesuch league tables beg as many
questions as they answer,(and we will later discuss the serious
problems attachedto statistics relating to language use) they do
makeprovocative reading Hindi, Spanish and Arabic areclose behind
English, but how secure their place will bein the 21st century is a
matter of speculation.
For the spread of English, the aftermath of WorldWar II was
decisive. American influence was extendedaround the world. As
George Steiner has observed:
English acted as the vulgate of American power and
ofAnglo-American technology and finance. ... In ways toointricate,
too diverse for socio-linguistics to formulate preci-sely, English
and American-English seem to embody formen and women throughout the
world and particularlyfor the young the feel of hope, of material
advance, ofscientific and empirical procedures. The entire
world-imageof mass consumption, of international exchange, of
thepopular arts, of generational conflict, of technocracy,
ispermeated by American-English and English citations andspeech
habits. (Steiner, 1975, p. 469)
Steiner captures the complex mix of the economic,technological,
political and cultural which is evident inthe international domains
of English at the end of the20th century. Those domains, listed in
Table 2, arediscussed more fully later in the book. Here, we
brieflyexamine how this situation arose in the second half ofthe
20th century.
World institutionsAfter the war, several international agencies
were estab-lished to help manage global reconstruction and
futuregovernance. The key one has proved to be the UnitedNations
and its subsidiary organisations. Crystal (1997)estimates that 85%
of international organisations nowuse English as one of their
working languages, 49% useFrench and fewer than 10% use Arabic,
Spanish orGerman. These figures probably underestimate the defacto
use of English in such organisations. TheInternational Association
for Applied Linguistics, forexample, lists French as a working
language (and isknown by a French acronym AILA), but English is
usedalmost exclusively in its publications and meetings. InEurope,
the hegemony of English even on paper issurprisingly high. Crystal
(1997) estimates 99% ofEuropean organisations listed in a recent
yearbook ofinternational associations cite English as a
workinglanguage, as opposed to 63% French and 40% German.
French is still the only real rival to English as a work-ing
language of world institutions, although the worldposition of
French has been in undoubted rapid decline
English in the 20th century
8 The Future of English?
The story of English in the 20th century has been closely linked
to the rise ofthe US as a superpower that has spread the English
language alongside itseconomic, technological and cultural
influence. In the same period, theinternational importance of other
European languages, especially French, hasdeclined.
Language engco model Ethnologue
1 Chinese 1,113 1,1232 English 372 3223 Hindi/Urdu 316 2364
Spanish 304 2665 Arabic 201 2026 Portuguese 165 1707 Russian 155
2888 Bengali 125 1899 Japanese 123 125
10 German 102 9811 French 70 7212 Italian 57 6313 Malay 47
47
Table 1 Major world languages in millions of
rst-languagespeakers according to the engco model and
comparative
gures from the Ethnologue (Grimes, 1996)
1 Working language of international organisations and
conferences
2 Scientific publication3 International banking, economic
affairs and trade4 Advertising for global brands5 Audio-visual
cultural products (e.g. film, TV,
popular music)6 International tourism7 Tertiary education8
International safety (e.g. airspeak, seaspeak)9 International
law
10 As a relay language in interpretation and translation
11 Technology transfer12 Internet communication
Table 2 Major international domains of English
Will the growth of theInternet help maintainthe global inuence
of English?p. 50
What effect will changingpatterns of trade have onthe use of
English?p. 33
-
since World War II. Its use in international forums isunlikely
to disappear entirely, however, because it retainsa somewhat
negative convenience in being not English,particularly in Europe.
It is the only alternative whichcan be used in many international
forums as a politicalgesture of resistance to the hegemony of
English. As adelegate from Ireland once addressed the League
ofNations many years ago, explaining his use of French, Icant speak
my own language, and Ill be damned if Illspeak English (cited in
Large, 1985, p. 195).
Financial institutionsEnglish has been spread as a world
language not only viapolitical initiatives. Key financial
institutions have beenestablished in the 20th century, again after
World WarII and with major American involvement. TheInternational
Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bankwere established after the
Bretton Woods conference in1944. Through the Marshall plan, the US
becameclosely involved in the post-war economic reconstructionof
Europe, Japan and other parts of the Asia Pacificregion. The Korean
and later the Vietnamese war conti-nued the process of spreading
American influence.Cultural, economic and technological dependency
onAmerica were soon a concern for nations across theworld. The
Bretton Woods system has since played asignificant role in
regulating international economic rela-tions and in introducing
free-market regimes in countrieswhere control has been
traditionally centralised. Asmore countries have been rendered open
to globalflows of finance, goods, knowledge and culture, so
theinfluence of English has spread.
Scientic publishingEnglish is now the international currency of
science andtechnology. Yet it has not always been so. The
renais-sance of British science in the 17th century put
English-language science publications, such as the
PhilosophicalTransactions instituted by the Royal Society 1665, at
theforefront of the world scientific community. But the posi-tion
was soon lost to German, which became the domi-nant international
language of science until World WarI. The growing role of the US
then ensured that Englishbecame, once again, the global language of
experimentand discovery.
Journals in many countries have shifted, since WorldWar II, from
publishing in their national language topublishing in English.
Gibbs (1995) describes how theMexican medical journal Archivos de
Investigacin Mdicashifted to English: first publishing abstracts in
English,then providing English translations of all articles,
finallyhiring an American editor, accepting articles only inEnglish
and changing its name to Archives of MedicalResearch. This language
shift is common elsewhere. Astudy in the early 1980s showed nearly
two-thirds ofpublications of French scientists were in English.
Viereck(1996) describes how all contributions in 1950 to
theZeitschrift fr Tierpsychologie were in German, but by 198495%
were in English. The journal was renamed Ethologytwo years
later.
As might be expected, some disciplines have beenmore affected by
the English language than others.Physics is the most globalised and
anglophone, followeda close second by other pure sciences. Table 3
shows thepercentage of German scholars in each field
reportingEnglish as their de facto working language in a study
bySkudlik (1992).
It is not just in scientific publishing, but in bookpublication
as a whole that English rules supreme.Worldwide, English is the
most popular language ofpublication. Figure 2 shows the estimated
proportion oftitles published in different languages in the early
1990s.
Unesco figures for book production show Britainoutstripping any
other country in the world for thenumber of titles published each
year. In 1996, a remar-kable 101,504 titles were published in
Britain(Independent, 25 February 1997, p. 11). Although thereare
countries which publish more per head of the popu-lation and many
countries which print more copies,none publishes as many titles.
Many of these books areexported, or are themselves part of a
globalised trade inwhich books may be typeset in one country,
printed inanother and sold in a third.
It is difficult to decide the relative cultural influenceof huge
numbers of copies of few titles available on theone hand, against
many titles printed in short runs onthe other. However, the
statistics show the enormousamount of intellectual property being
produced in theEnglish language in an era where intellectual
property isbecoming increasingly valuable.
English in the 21st centuryThe position of English in the world
today is thus thejoint outcome of Britains colonial expansion and
themore recent activity of the US. Any substantial shift inthe role
of the US in the world is likely to have animpact on the use and
attractiveness of the Englishlanguage amongst those for whom it is
not a firstlanguage. Later, we will see how the economic domi-nance
of the US is expected to decline, as economies inAsia overtake it
in size. The question remains whetherEnglish has become so
entrenched in the world that adecline in the influence of the US
would harm it. Are itscultural resources and intellectual property
so extensivethat no other language can catch up? Or will
otherlanguages come to rival English in their global impor-tance,
pushing English aside much in the same way asLatin was abandoned as
an international lingua franca300 years ago?
The Future of English? 9
It has all happened so quickly David Crystal inEnglish as a
global language.
Physics 98%Chemistry 83%Biology 81%Psychology 81%Maths 78%Earth
Sciences 76%Medical Science 72%Sociology 72%Philosophy 56%Forestry
55%Vet. Sciences 53%Economics 48%Sports Sciences 40%Linguistics
35%Education 27%Literature 23%History 20%Classics 17%Theology
12%Law 8%
Table 3 Disciplines inwhich German academics
claim English as theirworking language
Japanese 5.1%
Spanish 6.7%
French 7.7%
German 11.8%
Chinese 13.3%
Russian 4.7%
Portuguese 4.5%
Korean 4.4%
Italian 4.0%
Dutch 2.4%
Swedish 1.6%
Other 5.8%English 28%
Figure 2 The proportion of the worlds books annually published
in each language. English is themost widely used foreign language
for book publication: over 60 countries publish titles in
English. Britain publishes more titles than any other country,
thus generating more intellectualproperty in the language than the
US. Some UK publishers, however, adopt US English house-
styles and this, together with the fact that print runs in North
America are typically muchlonger than in the UK, ensures that books
published in US English receive a wider circulationthan those in
British English. In the 21st century there is likely to be
considerable growth in
English language publishing in countries where English is spoken
as a second language
-
Three types of English speakerThere are three types of English
speaker in the worldtoday, each with a different relationship with
thelanguage. First-language (L1) speakers are those forwhom English
is a first and often only language.These native speakers live, for
the most part, in countriesin which the dominant culture is based
around English.These countries, however, are experiencing
increasinglinguistic diversity as a result of immigration.
Second-language (L2) speakers have English as a second or
addi-tional language, placing English in a repertoire oflanguages
where each is used in different contexts.Speakers here might use a
local form of English, but mayalso be fluent in international
varieties. The third groupof English speakers are the growing
number of peoplelearning English as a foreign language (EFL).
Leith (1996) argues that the first two kinds of English-speaking
community result from different colonialprocesses. He identifies
three kinds:
In the first type, exemplified by America and
Australia,substantial settlement by first-language speakers of
Englishdisplaced the precolonial population. In the second,
typifiedby Nigeria, sparser colonial settlements maintained
theprecolonial population in subjection and allowed a propor-tion
of them access to learning English as a second, or addi-tional,
language. There is yet a third type, exemplified bythe Caribbean
islands of Barbados and Jamaica. Here aprecolonial population was
replaced by a new labour fromelsewhere, principally West Africa.
... The long-term effectof the slave trade on the development of
the Englishlanguage is immense. It gave rise not only to black
Englishin the United States and the Caribbean, which has been
animportant influence on the speech of young English spea-kers
worldwide, but it also provided the extraordinarycontext of
language contact which led to the formation ofEnglish pidgins and
creoles. (Leith, 1996, pp. 1812, 206)
Each colonial process had different linguistic conse-quences.
The first type created a diaspora of native spea-kers of English
(US, Canada, South Africa, Australia,New Zealand), with each
settlement eventually establis-hing its own national variety of
English. The second(India, West Africa, East Africa) made English
an elitesecond language, frequently required for further educat-ion
and government jobs.
The linguistic consequences of the third type werecomplex,
including the creation of new hybrid varieties
of English called creoles. Creoles have as their origin apidgin
a reduced form of communication usedbetween speakers of mutually
unintelligible languages which becomes extended in vocabulary and
grammar asa result of being used as a mother tongue.
Classificationof creole speakers is problematic. From a linguistic
view,there is merit in regarding creoles as distinct languages.From
a sociolinguistic view, it may be better to regardcreole speakers
as belonging to the English-speakingcommunity, because of the
emergence in several count-ries of a post-creole continuum: a range
of languagevarieties from standard English to fully fledged
creole.
Dividing English speakers into three groups is a time-honoured
approach to language use and, though notwithout its problems, is a
useful starting point for under-standing the pattern of English
worldwide. These threegroups have become widely known (after
Kachru, 1985)as the inner circle, the outer circle and the
expandingcircle (Figure 3). One of the drawbacks of this
termino-logy is the way it locates the native speakers and
native-speaking countries at the centre of the global use ofEnglish
and, by implication, the source of models ofcorrectness, the best
teachers and English-languagegoods and services consumed by those
in the periphery.
This model, however, will not be the most useful fordescribing
English usage in the next century. Those whospeak English alongside
other languages will outnumberfirst-language speakers and,
increasingly, will decide theglobal future of the language. For
that reason we retainhere the terminology of first-language speaker
(L1),second-language speaker (L2) and speaker of Englishas a
foreign language (EFL). Figure 4 provides an alter-native way of
visualising these three communities.
Who speaks English?
10 The Future of English?
There are three kinds of English speaker: those who speak it as
a firstlanguage, those for whom it is a second or additional
language and thosewho learn it as a foreign language. Native
speakers may feel the languagebelongs to them, but it will be those
who speak English as a second orforeign language who will determine
its world future.
INNER
OUTER
EXPANDING
320-380
150-300
100-1000
Figure 3 The three circles ofEnglish according to Kachru
(1985) with estimates ofspeaker numbers in millionsaccording to
Crystal (1997)
375 million L1 speakers
750 million EFL speakers
Possible languageshift
Possible languageshift
375 million L2 speakers
Antigua and Barbuda 61Australia 15,316Bahamas 250Barbados
265Belize* 135Bermuda 60Brunei* 10Canada 19,700Cayman Is
29Gibraltar* 25Grenada 101
Guam* 56Guyana 700Hong Kong* 125India* 320Irish Republic
3,334Jamaica 2,400Liberia* 60Malaysia* 375Montserrat 11Namibia*
13New Zealand 3,396
Papua New Guinea* 120Philippines* 15Puerto Rico* 110Sierra
Leone* 450St Kitts and Nevis 39St Lucia 29St Vincent and Grenadines
111Singapore* 300South Africa* 3,600Sri Lanka* 10Suriname 258
Trinidad and Tobago 1,200UK (England, Scotland, N. Ireland,
Wales*) 56,990UK Islands
(Channel*, Man) 217US* 226,710Virgin Is (British) 17Virgin Is
(US) 79Zambia* 50Zimbabwe* 250
Figure 4 Showing the three circles of English as
overlappingmakes it easier to see how the centre of gravity will
shift
towards L2 speakers at the start of the 21st century
Table 4 Native speakers ofEnglish (in thousands)incorporating
estimates byCrystal (1997)
(*indicates territories inwhich English is used as anL1, but
where there isgreater L2 use or signicantuse of another
language)
-
Using a tripartite division as a starting point for analysis,we
can find English spoken as a first language in over 30territories
(Table 4). Crystal (1997) calculates that world-wide there are a
little over 377 million speakers ofEnglish as a first language,
including creole. It is a figurein line with other recent estimates
and the figures gene-rated by the engco model (Table 1, p. 8, see
also p. 64).
The second-language areasIn the 19th century, it was common to
refer to English asthe language of administration for one-third of
theworlds population. It is interesting to compare thisfigure with
Crystals present-day estimate (1997) that theaggregated population
of all countries in which Englishhas any special status (the total
number of peopleexposed to English), represents around one-third of
theworlds population. It is not surprising that the figuresare
similar, since the more populous of the 75 or socountries in which
English has special status (Table 5)are former colonies of
Britain.
Competence in English among second-languagespeakers, like that
in EFL speakers, varies from native-like fluency to extremely poor,
but whereas in EFL areasEnglish is used primarily for communication
with spea-kers from other countries, in an L2 area English is
usedfor internal (intranational) communication.
Areas in which English is used extensively as a secondlanguage
usually develop a distinct variety of Englishwhich reflects other
languages used alongside English.Parts of the world where such
varieties (New Englishes)have emerged are the former colonial
territories inSouth Asia, South-east Asia, Africa and the
Caribbean.Although these local forms of English have their
ownvitality and dynamic of change, there is often an under-lying
model of correctness to which formal usage orients,reflecting the
variety of English used by the former colo-nial power. In the
majority of countries this is British(Figure 5), with some
exceptions such as the Philippinesand Liberia, which orient to US
English.
The foreign-language areasThe number of people learning English
has in recentyears risen rapidly. This, in part, reflects changes
inpublic policy, such as lowering the age at which Englishis taught
in schools. Like L2, the EFL category spans awide range of
competence, from barely functional inbasic communication to near
native fluency. The maindistinction between a fluent EFL speaker
and an L2speaker depends on whether English is used within
thespeakers community (country, family) and thus forms
part of the speakers identity repertoire. In the EFLworld there
is, by definition, no local model of English,though speakers
English accents and patterns of errormay reflect characteristics of
their first language.
Language shiftIn many parts of the world there are ongoing
shifts inthe status of English. These are largely undocumentedand
unquantified, but will represent a significant factorin the global
future of the language. In those countrieslisted in Table 6, the
use of English for intranationalcommunication is greatly increasing
(such as in profes-sional discourse or higher education). These
countriescan be regarded as in the process of shifting towards
L2status. In existing L2 areas, a slight increase in theproportion
of the population speaking English (forexample, in India, Pakistan,
Nigeria and thePhilippines), would significantly increase the
global totalof secondlanguage speakers.
In many L2 areas, there is a trend for professionaland middle
classes who are bilingual in English (arapidly growing social group
in developing countries) toadopt English as the language of the
home. English isthus acquiring new first-language speakers outside
thetraditional native-speaking countries. Yet the numberof new
second-language speakers probably greatly offsetsthe children in L2
families who grow up as first-languagespeakers a trend shown
graphically in Figure 4.
The Future of English? 11
Those who speak English alongside other languages willoutnumber
first-language speakers and, increasingly, will
decide the global future of the language.
American English British English
W. AfricaE. Africa
AnglophoneS. Africa
AUSTRALASIA
New ZealandAustralia
PNGS.E. Asia
S. AsiaCaribbean
U.S.
Canada British Isles
Philippines (US)
Fiji
Am. Samoa
Figure 5 The branches of world English
The rst-language countries
ArgentinaBelgiumCosta RicaDenmarkEthiopiaHondurasLebanonMyanmar
(Burma)NepalNetherlandsNicaraguaNorwayPanamaSomaliaSudanSurinamSwedenSwitzerland
United Arab Emirates
Table 6 Countries intransition from EFL to L2
status
Table 5 (below)Second-language speakers of
English (in thousands)(*indicates a larger number
of L1 English speakers)
Australia* 2,084Bahamas* 25Bangladesh 3,100Belize* 30Bhutan
60Botswana 620Brunei 104Cameroon 6,600Canada* 6,000Cook Is
2Dominica 12Fiji 160Gambia 33Ghana 1,153Guam 92Guyana* 30
Hong Kong 1,860India 37,000Irish Republic* 190Jamaica* 50Kenya
2,576Kiribati 20Lesotho 488Liberia 2,000Malawi 517Malaysia
5,984Malta 86Marshall Is 28Mauritius 167Micronesia 15Namibia
300Nauru 9,400
Nepal 5,927New Zealand* 150Nigeria 43,000Northern Marianas
50Pakistan 16,000Palau 16,300Papua New Guinea 28,000Philippines
36,400Puerto Rico 1,746Rwanda 24St Lucia* 22Samoa (American)
56Samoa (Western) 86Seychelles 11Sierra Leone 3,830Singapore
1,046
Solomon Is 135South Africa 10,000Sri Lanka 1,850Surinam
150Swaziland 40Tanzania 3,000Tonga 30Tuvulu 600Uganda 2,000UK*
1,100US* 30,000US Virgin Is* 10Vanuatu 160Zambia 1,000Zimbabwe
3,300
-
English and other languagesA large number of native speakers is
probably a pre-requisite for a language of wider communication,
forthese speakers create a range of cultural resources (worksof
literature, films, news broadcasts) and pedagogicmaterials
(grammars, dictionaries, classroom materials)and provide
opportunities for engaging in interactionswhich require knowledge
of the language.
But a full understanding of the role of English in aworld where
the majority of its speakers are notfirst-language speakers
requires an understanding of howEnglish relates to the other
languages which are usedalongside it. The European concept of
bilingualismreflects an idea that each language has a natural
geog-raphical home and that a bilingual speaker is thereforesomeone
who can converse with monolingual speakersfrom more than one
country. The ideal bilingual speakeris thus imagined to be someone
who is like a monolin-gual in two languages at once. But many of
the worldsbilingual or multilingual speakers interact with
othermultilinguals and use each of their languages for diffe-rent
purposes: English is not used simply as a defaultlanguage because
it is the only language shared withanother speaker; it is often
used because it is culturallyregarded as the appropriate language
for a particularcommunicative context.
Languages in multilingual areas are often hierarchi-cally
ordered in status. To the extent that such relations-hips are
institutionalised, the hierarchy can be thought ofas applying to
countries as much as to the repertoire ofindividual speakers. Shown
schematically in Figure 6 is alanguage hierarchy for India, a
complex multilingualarea where nearly 200 languages exist with
differingstatus. At the pyramid base are languages used withinthe
family and for interactions with close friends. Suchlanguages tend
to be geographically based (or used bymigrant communities) and are
the first languages learnedby children. Higher up the pyramid are
languages whichare found in more formal and public domains and
which
have greater territorial reach. For example, in thesecond layer
from the base will be languages which inIndia form the medium of
primary education, newspa-pers, radio broadcasts and local
commerce. Above thesein the hierarchy will be languages used in
official admini-stration, secondary education and so on to the
highestlevel, in which will be found the languages of wider
andinternational communication. The taper of the pyramidreflects
the fact that fewer language varieties occupy thisposition:
greatest linguistic diversity is found at the baseamongst
vernacular languages. Indeed, very few of theworlds languages are
used for official administration andin other public forums.
Not all speakers will be fluent in language varieties atthe
higher levels. The normal pattern of acquisition willbegin with
those languages at the base. Many of theworlds population never
require the use of varieties atthe uppermost layer because they
never find themselvesin the communicative position which requires
suchlanguage. For example, an Indian from the state ofKerala whose
mother tongue is a tribal language mayalso speak Tulu (2 million
speakers) and the statelanguage Malayalam (33 million), or the
neighbouringstate language of Kannada (44 million). If they know
anyHindi or English, it is likely to be their fourth or
fifthlanguage. However, more and more people in the worldwill learn
languages in the uppermost layer as a result ofimproved education
and changing patterns of communi-cation in the world.
Although a simple pyramid figure captures somet-hing of the
hierarchical relationship between languagevarieties, it perhaps
suggests too neat a pattern oflanguage use. For the majority of the
worlds population,a particular language will exist at more than one
level(for example, serve as a public language as well as alanguage
in the family), though where a language servesdifferent
communicative functions in this way it usuallyalso takes a variety
of forms. For example, the classicsociolinguistic pyramid used to
describe British English(Trudgill, 1974, p. 41) shows a similarly
layered structurein which vernacular, informal varieties, often
with stronggeographical basis, exist at the lowest layer, whilst at
theapex is a standard form of English, showing little regio-nal
variation and used for public and formal communi-cation. All
speakers can be expected to modify theirlanguage to suit the
communicative situation; even amonolingual English speaker will
adapt accent, vocabu-lary, grammar and rhetorical form to suit the
context.
English and code-switchingWhere English has a place alongside
other languages ina local language hierarchy, speakers will
normally usetheir first language in different contexts from those
inwhich they use English. Whereas the first language maybe a sign
of solidarity or intimacy, English, in manybilingual situations,
carries overtones of social distance,formality or officialdom.
Where two speakers know bothlanguages, they may switch between the
two as part of anegotiation of their relationship. Indeed, they
mayswitch between languages within a single sentence. Inthe
following example a young job seeker comes into themanagers office
in a Nairobi business. The young manbegins in English, but the
manager insists on usingSwahili, thus denying the young mans
negotiation ofthe higher status associated with English
(Myers-Scotton, 1989, p. 339). Bilingual speakers use
code-switching as a communicative resource, varying the mix
Language hierarchies
12 The Future of English?
Languages are not equal in political or social status,
particularly inmultilingual contexts. How does English relate to
other languages in amultilingual speakers repertoire? Why does
someone use English rather thana local language? What
characteristic patterns are there in the use of Englishby
non-native speakers?
HINDI, ENGLISH
National languages
Scheduled languages
Languages with widespread currency
Local vernacular varieties
HINDI, TELEGU, BENGALI, MARATHI, TAMIL
URDU, GUJRATI, KANNADA, MALAYALAM, ORIYA
PUNJABI, KASHMIRI, SINDHI, ASSAMESE, SANSKRIT
41 languages used for education58 taught as school subjects
87 used in media
Over 190 recognised language varieties
1,652 mother tongues recorded in 1961 census
Figure 6 A language hierarchy for India
-
of the two languages, for example, Swahili and English,in a way
which only a member of the same speechcommunity can fully
understand.
One of the global trends we identify later is the develop-ment
of world regions composed of adjacent countrieswith strong
cultural, economic and political ties. As suchregions develop, so
it is likely that new regional languagehierarchies will appear. The
European Union, forexample, may be in the process of becoming a
singlegeolinguistic region like India (Figure 7). A survey in1995
by the European Bureau of Lesser Used Languagesreported that 42% of
EU citizens could communicate inEnglish, 31% in German and 29% in
French (cited inCrystal, 1997). Surveys of European satellite TV
audien-ces (p. 46) confirm the widespread understanding ofEnglish
over 70% of viewers claim they can follow thenews in English and
over 40% could do so in French orGerman. (Sysfret, 1997, p.
37).
It is possible to conceptualise a world hierarchy, likethat
outlined for Europe or India, (Figure 8), in whichEnglish and
French are at the apex, with the position ofFrench declining and
English becoming more clearly theglobal lingua franca. Later, we
argue that English is alsosteadily colonising lower layers in this
hierarchy formany of the worlds speakers, whereas the majority
ofthe worlds languages found at present only at the base are likely
to become extinct.
English increasingly acts as a lingua franca between non-native
speakers. For example, if a German sales managerconducts business
in China, English is likely to be used.Little research has been
carried out on such interactions,but they are likely to have
characteristic features,reflecting complex patterns of politeness
and strategiesfor negotiating meaning cross-culturally. Firth
(1996), forexample, analysed international telephone calls
involvingtwo Danish trading companies and identified
severalconversational strategies. The exchange below, betweena Dane
(H) and a Syrian (B), shows one strategy whichhe termed let it pass
where one person does notunderstand what has been said, but delays
asking forelucidation in the hope that the meaning will emerge
astalk progresses or else become redundant.
Experienced users of English as a foreign language mayacquire
communicative skills which are different fromthose of native
speakers, reflecting the more hazardouscontexts of communication in
which they routinely findthemselves. However, the strategies
employed by non-native speakers remains an under-researched area
ofEnglish usage, despite the fact that there may already bemore
people who speak English as a foreign languagethan the combined
totals of those who speak it as a firstand second language.
The Future of English? 13
English is not used simply as a default language;it is often
used because it is culturally regarded as
the appropriate language for a particularcommunicative
context.
ENGLISH, FRENCH, GERMAN
The big languages
National languages
Officially recognised and supported
Vernacular varieties of indigenous EU communities
DANISH, DUTCH, ENGLISH, FINNISHFRENCH, GERMAN, GREEK, IRISH
languages
ITALIAN, PORTUGUESE, SPANISH, SWEDISH
ALSATION, ASTURIAN, BASQUE, CATALAN, CORSICANFRISIAN, GALICIAN,
LADIN, LUXEMBOURGISHOCCITAN, SARDINIAN, SCOTS GAELIC, WELSH
ALBANIAN, ARAGONESE, BRETON, CORNISH, FRANCO-PROVENCAL,
FRIULIANKARELIAN, LALLANS, MACEDONIAN (GREECE), MANX, POLISH,
ROMANY, SAMISH
CROAT, SLOVENE, SORBIAN, TURKISH, VLACH
Figure 7 A language hierarchy for the European Union
ENGLISH FRENCHThe big languages
Regional languages(*languages of the United Nations)
ARABIC, CHINESE*, ENGLISH* FRENCH*, GERMAN, RUSSIAN*
National languages Around 80 languages serve over 180 nation
states
Official languages within nation states(and other safe
languages)
Around 600 languages worldwide (Krauss, 1992)(e.g. Marathi)
Local vernacular languages
The remainder of the worlds 6,000+ languages
SPANISH*
Figure 8 The world language hierarchy
B: So I told him not to send the cheese after the blowingin the
customs. We dont want the order after thecheese is blowing.
H: I see, yes.
B: So I dont know what we can do with the order now.What do you
think we should do with this all blowing,Mr Hansen?
H: Im not uh (pause). Blowing? What is this, too big orwhat?
B: No, the cheese is bad Mr Hansen. It is like fermentingin the
customs cool rooms.
H: Ah, its gone off!
B: Yes, its gone off.
Young man: Mr Muchuki has sent me to you about thejob you put in
the paper.
Manager: Ulituma barua ya application? [DID YOU SEND ALETTER OF
APPLICATION?]
Young man: Yes, I did. But he asked me to come to seeyou
today.
Manager: Ikiwa ulituma barua, nenda ungojee majibu.Tutakuita uke
kwa interview siku itakapoka. [IF YOUVEWRITTEN A LETTER, THEN GO
AND WAIT FOR A RESPONSE. WE WILLCALL YOU FOR AN INTERVIEW WHEN THE
LETTER ARRIVES]
Leo sina la suma kuliko hayo. [TODAY I HAVENT ANYTHINGELSE TO
SAY]
Young man: Asante. Nitangoja majibu. [THANK YOU. I WILLWAIT FOR
THE RESPONSE]
Will English become alanguage for work, like acoat worn at the
ofcebut taken off at home?
p. 42
Will the spread of Englishbe responsible for the
extinction of thousandsof lesser used languages?
p. 38
Non-native speaker interactions
-
Summary
14 The Future of English?
Ammon, U. (1995) To what extent is German an international
language? In P.Stevenson (ed) The German Language and the Real
World: sociolinguistic, cultural andpragmatic perspectives on
contemporary German. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Crystal, D. (1995) Cambridge Encyclopedia of the English
Language. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
Crystal, D. (1997) English as a Global Language. Cambridge:
Cambridge UniversityPress.
Eco, U. (1995) The Search for the Perfect Language. Oxford:
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analysis. Journal of
Pragmatics, April.Gibbs, W.W. (1995) Lost science in the third
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pp. 7683.Grimes, B.F. (1996) (ed) Ethnologue: languages of the
world. Dallas: Summer Institute
of Linguistics.Hagen, S. (1993) (ed) Languages in European
Business: a regional survey of small and
medium-sized companies. London: CILT.Hesselberg-Mller, N. (1988)
Eksport og uddannelse. Copenhagen:
Industrirdet.Kachru, B.B. (1985) Standards, codification and
sociolinguistic realism: the
English language in the outer circle. In R. Quirk and H.G.
Widdowson (eds)English in the World. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press.
Krauss, M. (1992) The worlds languages in crisis. Language, vol.
68, no. 1, pp.79
Large, A. (1985) The Artificial Language Movement. Oxford:
Blackwell.Leith, D. (1996) English colonial to postcolonial. In D.
Graddol, D. Leith and
J. Swann (eds) English: history, diversity and change. London:
Routledge.
McArthur, T. (1992) (ed) The Oxford Companion to the English
Language. Oxford:Oxford University Press.
McArthur, T. (1996) English in the world and in Europe. In R.
Hartmann (ed)The English Language in Europe. Oxford: Intellect.
Myers-Scotton, C. (1989) Code-switching with English: types of
switching, typesof communities. World Englishes, vol. 8, no. 3, pp.
33346.
Skudlik, S. (1992) The status of German as a language of science
and theimportance of the English language for German-speaking
scientists. In U.Ammon and M. Hellinger (eds) Status Change of
Languages. Berlin: de Gruyter.
Swinburne, J.K. (1983) The use of English as an international
language ofscience: a study of the publications and views of a
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12932.
Steiner, G. (1975) After Babel: aspects of language and
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Strevens, P. (1992) English as an international language. In
B.B. Kachru (ed)The Other Tongue: English across cultures. Urbana:
University of Illinois Press.
Sysfret, T. (1997) Trend setters. Cable and Satellite Europe,
January, pp. 347Trudgill, P. (1974) Sociolinguistics: an
introduction. Harmondsworth: Penguin.Viereck, W. (1996) English in
Europe: its nativisation and use as a lingua franca,
with special reference to German-speaking countries. In R.
Hartmann (ed) TheEnglish Language in Europe. Oxford: Intellect.
Webster, N. (1789) An essay on the necessity, advantages and
practicability ofreforming the mode of spelling, and of rendering
the orthography of wordscorrespondent to the pronunciation.
Appendix to Dissertations on the EnglishLanguage. Extracts
reprinted in T. Crowley (ed) Proper English: readings inlanguage,
history and cultural identity. London: Routledge.
1 The development of the languageThe English language has
changed substantially in vocabularyand grammatical form often as a
result of contact with otherlanguages. This has created a hybrid
language; vocabulary hasbeen borrowed from many sources and
grammatical structurehas changed through contact with other
languages. This maycause problems for learners, but it also means
that speakers ofmany other languages can recognise features which
are not toodissimilar to characteristics of their own language.
Although thestructural properties of English have not hindered the
spread ofEnglish, the spread of the language globally cannot
beattributed to intrinsic linguistic qualities.
2 The spread of EnglishThere have been two main historical
mechanisms for the spreadof English. First was the colonial
expansion of Britain whichresulted in settlements of English
speakers in many parts of theworld. This has provided a diasporic
base for the language which is probably a key factor in the
adoption of a language as alingua franca. In the 20th century, the
role of the US has beenmore important than that of Britain and has
helped ensure thatthe language is not only at the forefront of
scientific andtechnical knowledge, but also leads consumer
culture.
3 English and other languagesThe majority of speakers of English
already speak more thanone language. An important community for the
futuredevelopment of English in the world is the outer circle of
thosewho speak it as a second language. English often plays a
specialrole in their lives and the fate of English in the world is
likely tobe closely connected to how this role develops in future.
English,for example, is becoming used by many EFL and L2
speakersfor a wider range of communicative functions. This process,
bywhich English colonises the lower layers of the languagehierarchy
in many countries, means that English may take oversome of the
functions currently served by other languages in theconstruction of
social identity and the creation and maintenanceof social
relationships.
4 A single, European, linguistic areaWestern Europe is beginning
to form a single multilingual area,rather like India, where
languages are hierarchically related instatus. As in India, there
may be many who are monolingual ina regional language, but those
who speak one of the biglanguages will have better access to
material success. Otherworld regions may develop in a similar way.
This book focusesparticularly on emergent trends in Asia, but
significantdevelopments are likely to occur also in the Americas,
in Russiaand in sub-Saharan Africa.
References
-
Forecasting
The Future of English? 15
2l Futurology
Futurology is one of the oldest of professions, judged with
scepticismand awe in equal measure. Although facts and gures are an
impor-tant ingredient in forecasting, they need to be interpreted
with care.On these pages we outline some basic features of language
changeand describe common problems with using statistics.
l Making sense of trends One of the key skills in forecasting is
being able to recognise an un-derlying trend and to understand how
it might develop in the future.Linguistic and social change rarely
happen at a steady and predictablerate. Here we discuss various
hazards associated with the interpre-tation of trend data using
examples relevant to the English language.
l Predictability or chaos?The use of English worldwide can be
regarded as a complex systemin which many factors interact in ways
that are not easily predictable.But recent advances in modelling
the behaviour of complex systems such as the weather could help us
understand what patterns mayemerge in the global use of
English.
l Scenario planningHow do forecasters in large companies cope
with the uncertaintythat the future holds? Can the methods they
employ be applied tomatters of culture and language as easily as to
the price of oil?Scenario building is one methodology used by
strategists to put to-gether known facts with imaginative ideas
about the future.
History is littered with failures of prediction and thereis no
reason to believe that attempts to predictprecisely what will
happen to the English language willfare any better.
It is, however, possible to understand something ofthe ways in
which languages evolve and howindividual speakers adapt their
patterns of languageuse. This gives us some useful indicators as to
theconditions under which change occurs, which kinds ofchange are
likely and which unlikely, the reasons whylinguistic change happen
and the timescales thatdifferent kinds of change require.
But many factors affecting the use of languages cannotbe
predicted easily. Major upheavals war, civilrevolution and the
breakup of nation states cancause languages to take unexpected
directions, as canthe vagaries of fashion amongst the global elite.
Mostpeople have opinions, ambitions and anxieties aboutthe future,
but few people know how to planstrategically for such unpredictable
events.
Strategic planning is not the same as prediction. Thissection
provides a guide to some of the techniquesused by strategists and
planners to createfuture-proof models and shows how they can
beapplied to aspects of language change and globaltrends in the use
of the English language.
The section begins with the hazards of extrapolatingfrom current
data, examines what insights chaostheory used for weather
forecasting has providedinto the behaviour of complex systems and
ends witha discussion of the scenario-building techniques usedby
transnational companies to ensure their strategicdecisions on
investment and management stay robustagainst a range of possible
futures.
-
Trend spottingFuturologists inhabit a frontierland between
historicalfacts and guesses about the future. Most of the
practicaltechniques of strategic planning used by large
corporat-ions employ some kind of mix of empirical evidencetogether
with the insight and judgement borne of practi-cal experience. But
getting the mix right is an extremelydifficult task. Identifying
trends even in the present canbe remarkably problematic. And
although statisticalinformation is a primary resource for the
futurologist,anyone trying to forecast the future of English
willencounter problems in locating and using statistics asso-ciated
with relevant worldwide trend data (opposite).
English in the future, as in the past, will be subject tothree
types of change. First, although different speakers,communities or
communicative domains may be affec-ted differently, there will be
changes to the language itself.Certainly in pronunciation,
vocabulary and grammar,but also in the range of text types and
genres whichemploy English. Second, there will be changes in
status.English may acquire a different meaning and pattern ofusage
among non-native speakers, or be used for a widerrange of social
functions. Third, English will be affectedby quantitative changes,
such as numbers of speakers, theproportion of the worlds scientific
journals published inEnglish, or the extent to which the English
language isused for computer-based communication.
Listed here are some broad principles of languagechange.
Identifying ways in which various changes aretaken up and spread
from one community to anothermay suggest areas where we need to
seek further infor-mation. While the dynamics of language change
arelikely to be different within the three communities ofEnglish
speaker we have already identified first-language speaker (L1),
second-language speaker (L2)and the speaker of English as a foreign
language (EFL) some general patterns can be observed.
How does language change?l Some kinds of change occur quickly,
others slowly. Fashions
in slang usage among native speakers, or the borro-wing of words
into another language, can develop inmonths, not years. But the
shift which occurs when acommunity or family abandons one language
andbegins to use another as a first language is
usuallyintergenerational. Language shift often needs
threegenerations to take full effect, which means that theremay be
initial signs now of long-term changes whichmight take the greater
part of another 100 years tofully complete.
l Individuals act as agents of change as do governments
andinstitutions. Successful learning of English is known tobe
closely associated with personal ambition andattributes such as
personality type. But languagechange may also be imposed from
outside or it mayresult from a rational response to a change in
circum-
stances. A government policy decision, for example,might change
the status of English as the first foreignlanguage taught in
schools, or may encourageEnglish as a medium of university
education. Ormarket liberalisation might result in the
establishmentof joint-venture companies, paying high salaries
butrequiring English-language skills in their workforce.
l Innovation in language tends to diffuse through social
networks.It has often been observed that people who
interacttogether on a regular basis, who have common loyal-ties and
identity and who like each other, tend to uselanguage in similar
ways. Any change in the patternsof communication or in the
structure of social relat-ionships in such networks is likely to
lead to a changein language use. The creation of new forms of
socialnetwork or new patterns of social affiliation can alsobe
expected to alter the way that speech communitiesare created and
maintained. New communicationstechnology, such as the Internet for
example, may beencouraging the formation of new kinds of
socialaffiliation and new discourse communities.
l Language change does not move across geographical territories
ina linear fashion. Linguistic innovations, such as
newpronunciations, tend to jump from one urban area toanother,
across rural areas and across nationalborders. In this respect they
are similar to otherchanges brought about by social contact
throughurban settings such as fashions in clothing, or theadoption
of some new kind of consumer hardware.The growth of large cities in
Asia will lead to manykinds of social change, including new
patterns oflanguage use.
l Young people are important leaders of change. There haslong
been recognised a so-called critical period inearly life when
children seem able to learn languageseasily. But adolescence is
perhaps an even moreimportant stage, where young people make the
tran-sition to a social life which is largely directed
bythemselves, when they acquire new social networksand identities
and feel the requirement for appropri-ate language styles. They may
take aspects of theseidentities through to adulthood; others may be
transi-tional teenage phenomena. An understanding ofwhich languages
the next generation of teenagers willbe speaking and learning is an
important step inidentifying future trends.
l Language change may follow change in material
circumstances.Language is often linked to particular social
andcultural practices. Rehousing schemes, shifts inemployment and
increased wealth may all contributeto rapid linguistic change. This
particularly contribu-tes to language loss such as the disuse of
Gaelic innorth-eastern Scottish fishing communitie