01 Climate Change Intro Slides

CAM Project Science Resources: An Introduction to Climate Change

Juliette Rooney-Varga, Ph.D.

UMass Lowell

“Question of the day”

• Do you think climate change will impact you during your lifetime?

• If yes, how?

There are no data from the future

• But, the basic physics and chemistry

underlying climate change has been known for more than 100 years.

What we KNOW.

• WE KNOW THAT:– CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) trap heat in the lower

atmosphere– Our use of oil, coal, and natural gas has increased the

concentration of CO2 by ~40% since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution

– Global temperature has already risen 0.8˚ C– Impacts will be much greater than anything we've seen thus far

if we continue on the course that we're on– Young people and future generations will be affected more than

older people by the decisions we make today– The best available evidence indicates that if we take strong

action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we can avoid the worst impacts.

Before we get started…

• What is the difference between weather and climate?

– If we have a cold winter (or even a cold summer!) in our state, does that mean that climate change is over?

What has a stable climate meant for us?

• Human society is built on a stable climate and cheap, abundant energy sources (primarily fossil fuels)– Agriculture – consistent, predictable food production– Ability to plan for the future: Buildings, roads, and other

infrastructure built for expected conditions– Ecosystem services – clean water, air, natural resources– Cheap energy: mostly from fossil fuels

• What are fossil fuels?• 1 barrel of oil ~$90• ~25,000 hours of human labor• Average American uses 25 barrels/year = ~250 years of manual

labor • Then add coal and natural gas!

It’s all about change

• Status quo cannot last

• We need to choose: stable climate or fossil fuels?

Changes in greenhouse gases from ice core and modern data: carbon dioxide

zz

Temperature has also risen

• Clip from Earth: The Operator’s Manual

– Dr. Richard Alley explains the long term temperature trend

– See: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_qdETSYcDM&hd=1

NEWSFLASH…

A major source of uncertainty in the CHOICES WE WILL MAKE

What we’ve already seen…

Violent thunderstorms kill 3 in North Carolina; extreme heat continues in Southeast

Russia/EuropeWildfire and Heat Wave 201015,000 dieWheat prices soar globally

China Drought 2010/11Millions without waterWheat prices skyrocket

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/RisingCost/rising_cost5.php

Karl, T.R., G.A. Meehl, and T.C. Peterson, 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009.

Percentage increases in very heavy precipitation (defined as the heaviest 1 percent of all events) from 1958 to 2007 for each region.

2011: Close to home

• “Snowtober” – record-breaking storm estimated to have caused >$3 billion in damage by reinsurance company

• Irene

• Record-breaking precip in Lowell

• … 14 > $ billion disasters in 2011

What can we do?

Go solar

~3.7 kWh/load10 loads/week = 37 kWh/week

14 panel array~10 kWh/day70 kWh/week

Hanging your laundry to dry ~ 7-panel solar array~$300/year in energy saved

130 turbines over ~80 km2Average production of 170 MW~2 W/m2

of UK

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1 kWh/100 person-km (average of 3 people, runs on biofuels)

Burn calories, not carbon

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