บรรยาย War termination

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

การยตสงครามการยตสงครามWAR TERMINATIONWAR TERMINATION

นาวาอากาศโทวชรศกด พสทธ

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

นาวาอากาศโท วชรศกด พสทธนาวาอากาศโท วชรศกด พสทธเตรยมทหารรนท เตรยมทหารรนท ๒๓๒๓

นายเรออากาศรนท นายเรออากาศรนท ๓๐๓๐

เสนาธการทหารอากาศรนท เสนาธการทหารอากาศรนท ๔๑๔๑

สงครามทางอากาศรนท สงครามทางอากาศรนท ๔๔

RAAF Command and Staff College RAAF Command and Staff College รนท รนท ๕๒๕๒

Master of Defense Studies, Canberra UniversityMaster of Defense Studies, Canberra University

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

B.H. Liddell HartB.H. Liddell Hart

““ If you concentrate exclusively on victory, with no If you concentrate exclusively on victory, with no

though for the after effect, you may be too exhaustedthough for the after effect, you may be too exhausted

to profit by the peace, while it is almost certain that to profit by the peace, while it is almost certain that

the peace will be a bad one, containing the germs the peace will be a bad one, containing the germs

of another war.of another war.””

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

Concept of War TerminationConcept of War Termination

GOALS & OBJECTIVESGOALS & OBJECTIVES

PREPRE-- PLANNED EXIT STRATEGYPLANNED EXIT STRATEGY

WAYS MEANSWAYS MEANS

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

EXIT STRATEGYEXIT STRATEGY -- MOST DESIRABLEMOST DESIRABLE

REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN LEADERSHIPREDUCED CONFIDENCE IN LEADERSHIP

DROP IN TROOP MORALEDROP IN TROOP MORALE

INCREASED CASUALTIESINCREASED CASUALTIES

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

EXIT STRATEGYEXIT STRATEGY -- FLEXIBLE TOFLEXIBLE TO

CHANGES IN GOALS & OBJECTIVESCHANGES IN GOALS & OBJECTIVES

EFFECTS OF FOG & FRICTIONEFFECTS OF FOG & FRICTION

COALITION POLITICAL DESIRESCOALITION POLITICAL DESIRES

SUCCESS & FAILSUCCESS & FAIL

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

THE DIFFICULTIES THE DIFFICULTIES in develop termination strategyin develop termination strategy

NATURE OF CONFLICTNATURE OF CONFLICT

VARIOUS PARTNERSVARIOUS PARTNERS

BROAD POLITICAL GOALS BY CILVILIAN BROAD POLITICAL GOALS BY CILVILIAN

LEADERSLEADERS

TRANSLATE POLITICAL OBJECTIVES TO TRANSLATE POLITICAL OBJECTIVES TO

TANGIBLE END STATETANGIBLE END STATE

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

ISSUES EFFECT TERMINATIONISSUES EFFECT TERMINATION

FOG OF MILITARY ESTIMATESFOG OF MILITARY ESTIMATES

NUCLEAR WEAPONSNUCLEAR WEAPONS

POLITICAL OBJECTIVESPOLITICAL OBJECTIVES

SUPER POWER INTERACTIONSUPER POWER INTERACTION

INTERESTINTEREST

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

Lessons on War TerminationLessons on War Termination

WAR TERMINATION PLANNING PRIOR THE WAR WAR TERMINATION PLANNING PRIOR THE WAR

IS A MUSTIS A MUST

NOT ENOUGH TIME & THOUGHT DEDECATEDNOT ENOUGH TIME & THOUGHT DEDECATED

DOCTRINE DOES NOT PROVIDE GUIDANCEDOCTRINE DOES NOT PROVIDE GUIDANCE

MORE WORKS ARE REQUIREDMORE WORKS ARE REQUIRED

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

END STATEEND STATE

A CLEAR AND CONCISE DESCRIPTION OF

REQUIRED CONDITIONS THAT, WHEN ACHIEVED,

WILL ACCOMPLISH THE NATIONAL STRATEGIC

OBJECTIVES.

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

WAR TERMINATIONWAR TERMINATION

THE PROCESS LEADING TO THE RESOLUTION OF

THE CONFLICT AND THE BASIS FOR MUTUAL

ACCEPTANCE OF INTEREST AND OBJECTIVES TO

ENSURE LASTING SETTLEMENT CONDITION.

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

““ WHEN DO YOU KNOW YOU HAVE WON?WHEN DO YOU KNOW YOU HAVE WON?””

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

““ CAN A COMMANDER DIVORCE HIMSELF CAN A COMMANDER DIVORCE HIMSELF

FROM THE POLOTICAL PROCESS?FROM THE POLOTICAL PROCESS?””

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

““ WHAT THE PROPER ROLE OF MILITARY WHAT THE PROPER ROLE OF MILITARY

COMMANDER IS IN HELPING THE POLITICAL COMMANDER IS IN HELPING THE POLITICAL

LEADERS DEFINE EXIT STRATERGY ? LEADERS DEFINE EXIT STRATERGY ? ””

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

““ EXIT STRATEGY DIVERTS MILITARY EXIT STRATEGY DIVERTS MILITARY

COMMANDERCOMMANDER’’S INTENTION ON HIS PRIMARY S INTENTION ON HIS PRIMARY

MILITARY OBJECTIVESMILITARY OBJECTIVES””

Jane E. HollJane E. Holl

Executive Director of Carnegie’s Commissin on Preventing Deadly ConflictExecutive Director of Carnegie’s Commissin on Preventing Deadly Conflict

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

““ THE COMMANDER ATTENTION WILL NOT THE COMMANDER ATTENTION WILL NOT

BE ON WAR TERMINATIONBE ON WAR TERMINATION……. THE COMBAT . THE COMBAT

COMMANDER MUST FULLY FOCUS ON MILITARY COMMANDER MUST FULLY FOCUS ON MILITARY

OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES……..””

Lt. Col. Daniel R. WilliamsLt. Col. Daniel R. Williams

Civil Affairs Expert on the Joint Staff Civil Affairs Expert on the Joint Staff

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

CLAUSEWITZCLAUSEWITZ’’S PREMISES PREMISE

““ MILITARY INTERVENTIONS ARE MILITARY INTERVENTIONS ARE

EXTENSIONS OF NATIONAL POLICY EXTENSIONS OF NATIONAL POLICY

BY OTHER MEANSBY OTHER MEANS””

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

““ PUSH & PULLPUSH & PULL””

““ ALL OR NOTHINGALL OR NOTHING

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

GENERAL POWELLGENERAL POWELL

THE MILITARY INTERVENTION MUSTTHE MILITARY INTERVENTION MUST

11. BE KEPT SHORT. BE KEPT SHORT

22. WITH FEW CASUALTIES. WITH FEW CASUALTIES

33. FORCE USED MUST BE DECISIVE & . FORCE USED MUST BE DECISIVE &

OVERWHELMING TO ENSURE OVERWHELMING TO ENSURE 1 1 & & 22

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

POLITICAL END STATE

SAFE & SECURE ENVIRONMENT

PROMOTE POLITICAL RECONCILIATION

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

SOMALIA CASE STUDYSOMALIA CASE STUDY

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

AUGUST 1992 CNN REPORT STAVATION IN SOMALIA

PRESIDENT BUSH ORDER “OPERATION PROVIDE

RELIEF

DECEMBER 1992 “OPERATION RESTORE HOPE”

MARCH 1993 “UNSOM II OPERATIONS”

TIMELINE

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

COST TO PAYCOST TO PAY

UNITED STATES - $1.2 BILLION

UNITED NATIONS - $1.5 BILLION

30 US SOLDIERS KILLED, 175 WOUNDED

140 UN PEACEKEEPERS KILLED

1000+ SOMALI CITIZENS DIED

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

CONSIDERED “A FAILURE”

DEADLY, COSTLY, MUDDLED & COUNTER PRODUCTIVE

CAMPAIGN

END STATE TURNED INTO OPERATION BEYOND THE

SCOPE OF THE MILITARY

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

Concept of War TerminationConcept of War Termination

Annihilation TheoryAnnihilation Theory

EndEnd--State & War Termination CriteriaState & War Termination Criteria

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

Concept of War TerminationConcept of War Termination

Annihilation TheoryAnnihilation Theory

EndEnd--State & War Termination CriteriaState & War Termination Criteria

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

War Termination Theory

Winner & LoserWinner & Loser

Cost BenefitCost Benefit

Political LeadershipPolitical Leadership

Out with the bad ; In with the goodOut with the bad ; In with the good

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

War Termination by Paul Pillar

By capitulationBy capitulation

By extermination or expulsionBy extermination or expulsion

By absorption into the larger conflictBy absorption into the larger conflict

By withdrawal of one belligerentsBy withdrawal of one belligerents

By intervention of third partyBy intervention of third party

By negotiationBy negotiation

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

War Termination by Berenice A. Carroll

With formal agreementWith formal agreement

formal peace treatiesformal peace treaties

armisticesarmistices

statementstatement

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

War Termination by Berenice A. Carroll

Without formal actWithout formal act

capitulation or surrendercapitulation or surrender

withdrawalwithdrawal

extermination or expulsionextermination or expulsion

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

การปฏบตหลงสงครามยต การปรบก าลงการปรบก าลง การบรณะฟนฟการบรณะฟนฟ โครงสรางสงอ านวยความสะดวกโครงสรางสงอ านวยความสะดวก การสาธารณสขการสาธารณสข

การจดการการจดการ เชลยศกเชลยศก ผลภยผลภย การสงเกตการณทางทหารการสงเกตการณทางทหาร

การถอนก าลงและการจดก าลงคมครองการถอนก าลงและการจดก าลงคมครอง

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

War Termination & Doctrine

Termination Planning : NegotiationsTermination Planning : Negotiations

Termination Planning : Non Combatant Termination Planning : Non Combatant

ResponsibilitiesResponsibilities

Termination Planning : Force SecurityTermination Planning : Force Security

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

War Termination & Doctrine

Termination Planning : Reintroducing Termination Planning : Reintroducing

Civilian AuthorityCivilian Authority

Termination Planning : Reconstitution of Termination Planning : Reconstitution of

the Battlefield and Military Support for the Battlefield and Military Support for

Peace AdministrationPeace Administration

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

Develop in coordination with both political Develop in coordination with both political

& military establishment & military establishment

If the political leaders not provide If the political leaders not provide -- do itdo it

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

STATUS COLDSTATUS COLD

BETTER STATUS OF PEACEBETTER STATUS OF PEACE

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

การยตสงครามการยตสงครามWAR TERMINATIONWAR TERMINATION

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

บทบาทของสหประชาชาต

คณะมนตรความมนคง คณะมนตรความมนคง (Security (Security

Council)Council)

สมชชาใหญ สมชชาใหญ (General Assemble)(General Assemble)

เลขาธการสหประชาชาต เลขาธการสหประชาชาต ((SecretariatSecretariat))

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

Peace keeping Operation

PeacemakingPeacemaking

PeacekeepingPeacekeeping

PeacePeace--enforcementenforcement

PeacePeace--buildingbuilding

Protective engagementProtective engagement

R T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E RR T A F A I R W A R F A R E C E N T E R

กองก าลงสหประชาชาต กองก าลงทหารเขาท าการรบกองก าลงทหารเขาท าการรบ

กองก าลงรกษาสนตภาพกองก าลงรกษาสนตภาพ

กองก าลงสงเกตการณกองก าลงสงเกตการณ

กองก าลงหรอหนวยควบคมดแลการเลอกตงกองก าลงหรอหนวยควบคมดแลการเลอกตง

กองก าลงส ารองกองก าลงส ารอง