® The New Craft of Intelligence What Should the T Be Doing to the I in IT? Robert David Steele Federal Convention on Emerging Technologies A Forum on Homeland.

®

The New Craft of IntelligenceWhat Should the T Be Doing to the I in IT?

Robert David Steele<[email protected]>

Federal Convention on Emerging TechnologiesA Forum on Homeland Security

Las Vegas, 9 January 2002

®

9-11: Systemic Failure

®

Let’s Crush the Box

®

Conflict Specifics for 1995-2000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000HIC Levels Off

LIC Business is Good

Internal Political & Ethnic Violence Goes Through the Roof

High-Intensity Conflict Low-Intensity Conflict Internal War

Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman

® Conflict Facts for 200026 LIC+, 78 LIC-, 178 VPC

Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman

®

External “Issues”

Complex Emergencies29 Countries

Refugees/Displaced67 Countries

Food Security27 Countries

Child Soldiers42 Countries

Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising

Peacekeeping Forces18 UN, 20 Other

Landmines62 Countries

Torture Common94 Countries

Corruption Common78 Countries

Censorship Very High63 Countries

*State of the World Atlas (1997), all others from PIOOM Map

®

10%

50%

25%

15%

State vs State

State vs Nation

Inter-Ethnic Tribal

Gang Wars, Genocide,Decolonization

Pentagon/IC Focused on 10% of the Threat

® Four Different Threats to America

PHYSICAL

STEALTH,

PRECISION

TARGETING

NATURAL

STEALTH,

RANDOM

TARGETING

CYBER -

STEALTH,

DATABASE

TARGETING

IDEO -

STEALTH,

MASS

TARGETING

GUERRILLAWAR

CULTURALWAR

HIGH TECH

BRUTES

(BIG WAR)

LOW TECH

BRUTES

(GANGS)

HIGH TECH

SEERS

(HOME)

LOW TECH

SEERS

(POOR)

MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS

POWER BASE

KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY

TERRORISMECONOMICWAR

®Intelligence Failure in

Global Collection

Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished

EnglishLanguage

ForeignLanguages*

*28 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.

NSA FBIS UN/STATE

Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect

CIA/DO

NRO

® Intelligence Failure in All-Source Processing

50% Less CostlyM

ore

Sat

isfy

ing

SIGINT

OSINT

0% 50%

HUMINT

IMINT

MASINT

STATE

Does Not Exist

11

®

PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURETunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers

ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTUREPower, Financial, Comms, Transportation

MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELSOff-base power, down-links, antennas

ECONOMIC BLAHSNo Fly No Spend No Hire

DATACorruption

Public Health

Vulnerabilities on the

Home Front

®

Individual as Threat

and Target

State as Threat

and Target

Defense Against Weapons Systems “Over There”

Defense of InfrastructureHere at Home

Offense Against Fixed Ground

Offense Against Distributed Groups

OLDNEW

PRIVATE SECTOR IS PRIMARY ACTOR

GOVERNMENT IS PRIMARY ACTOR

®Inside Out Targeting

Homeland Security First!Leadership

Exposed and Often

Ignorant

Infrastructure Wide Open,

Especially Data

Population Completely Vulnerable

Military Largely Irrelevant for

Homeland Defense

®

Civil Center Of GravityState & Local Government, Non-State Actors

InformationInformationWarfareWarfare

Information Information PeacekeepingPeacekeeping

Open Open Source Source

IntelligenceIntelligence

EducationEducationElectronicElectronic Security & Counterintelligence

Big Secret Not Secret

PrivatePrivate SectorSector!

INFORMATION INFORMATION COMMONSCOMMONS

®

Open source information is more complex than secrets…

New Intelligence Paradigm

SI/TK

Selective Importation

System High/Firewall

Just Enough, Just in Time

Default to Validated OSINT

SI/TK

Validated OSINT

OUT IN

®

TIME IMPACT SHORT

TIME IMPACT

LONG

MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL

EQUITIES

SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION

EQUITIES

LEADERS DECIDE

PEOPLE DECIDE

TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL

SECRET SOURCES & METHODS

BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING

OPEN SOURCES & METHODS

OBVIOUS DETAIL

OBSCURE DETAIL

OLD

NEW

21st Century “C4I”

®

Policy Intelligence

Military Intelligence

Law Enforcement Intelligence

Coalition Intelligence

Business Intelligence/OSINT

Mass & Niche Media Intelligence

Citizen Intelligence--Intelligence “Minuteman”

Basic, Advanced, & Corporate Education

Home Front and International“Virtual” Intelligence Community

International

Coalition

Options

INFORMATION UNIVERSERelevant and Irrelevant -- Open and Secret

Decision-MakerIntegration, Reflection & Decision

RANDOM

SECRET

EXISTING INPUT

normal staff process,

counterparts, family/friends

OPEN SOURCEINPUT

Internet &private sector fee-for-service

Information Management StaffCollection Management, Fusion, Analysis & Presentation

FIND (free), GET (free), BUY (cheap), TASK (costly)

®

1

2

Ops-Logs-Intel-Real World Disconnects!

®Revolution Needed in

Presidential LeadershipPresidentCongress Judiciary

Chief of Staff

Director-General forNational Policy

Director-General forGlobal Strategy

Director-General forNational Intelligence

Director-General forNational Research

Director of ClassifiedIntelligence (DCI)

Chairman, NationalIntelligence Council

Director, Global Knowledge Foundation

Ove

rsig

h t A

u tho

r ity

®

New Craft of Intelligence

I

Lessons of History

II

Global Coverage

III

National Intelligence

IV

Spies & Secrecy

China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.

Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning

Narrowly focused!

Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

®

New Craft of Intelligence I

I

Lessons of History

China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Narrowly focused!• Digital History Project

• $5M per year

• State/Library of Congress

• NSA Processing

• Digital History project will, each year, digitize essential Chinese, Islamic, and such other foreign language historical, political, social, economic, cultural, and related information, as needed to create a foundation for rapidly translating, visualizing, and modeling critical national security information.

®

New Craft of Intelligence II

II

Global Coverage

Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning

Narrowly focused!

• Global Knowledge Network

• $100M per year

• CINCs, State, Commerce

• NSA Processing

• NGO Data Warehouse and Network ($10M), Global Coverage Network of Operational Planning Groups ($10M), four regional OSINT collection, translation, and digitization centers ($40M), Digital Marshall Plan for Third World ($20M), OSINT Training ($10M), and Future Intelligence Collaborative Environment ($10M).

®

New Craft of Intelligence III

III

National Intelligence

Narrowly focused!

Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

• Homeland intelligence

• $1.5B a year

• Governors Have Lead

• FBI, State, INS, Army

• NSA Processing

• Homeland Security Intelligence Program (HSIP) adds $3B per year to National Foreign Intelligence Program (NFIP). Funds Global Coverage ($1.5B/yr), Homeland Intelligence ($1.5B/yr) to include national and state intelligence centers, two new FBI divisions (economic espionage and counterterrorism).

®

New Craft of Intelligence IV

IV

Spies & Secrecy

Narrowly focused!• Foreign Intelligence & CI

• Fences $30B per year

• DGNI, Consolidated NFIP

• Get serious!

• Foreign intelligence and counterintelligence must be restructured via a National Security Act of 2002 with distinct agencies for collection, processing, analysis and geospatial information, new programs for counterintelligence, coalition intelligence and homeland intelligence, CINC-driven ground truth battalions and information peacekeeping programs, transfer of covert action to USSOCOM, elevation and expansion of NIC to include SIOs for states, new DGNI above DCI.

®

Global Distributed Knowledge

National Distributed Knowledge

Government Knowledge

Intelligence Community

1B 10B 100B 1 TRILLION

Real World Dollars for Burden Sharing

®

COALITION COMMANDER & STAFF

INTELLIGENCE METHODS

•Requirements Definition

•Collection Management

•Source Discovery & Validation

•Multi-Source Fusion

•Compelling Timely Presentation

•Evaluation, Feedback, New Requirements

•Operational Security

OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION

•Internet

•Commercial Online (Fee for Access)

•Gray Literature

•Subject-Matter Experts

•Commercial Geospatial Information

•Direct Ground and/or Aerial Reconnaissance

•Complex Human and/or Technical Services

Create Common Open Source Intelligence

for Multi-Laternal Sharing

Securely Exploit Bi-Lateral Classified Intelligence

from Nations

Emerging NATO (SACLANT) Approach

®

CINC

G-2 G-3

PSYOP

POLAD

PAO

CIVILAFFAIRS

PROVOSTMARSHAL

COMBATENGINEERS

Exchange with People

Exchange with Embassies

Exchange with Civil Authorities

Exchange with Business Community

Exchange with

MediaOSINT “NET”

Practical Value for Government Operations

Exchange with Allies and NGOs

®

Homeland Security Intelligence

• Single national center, 24/7 operational intelligence, geospatial time “plot” (Army)

• Individual “community intelligence centers” for every Governor and 250K Mayor (Guard)

• Web-based “virtual intelligence community” for entry and evaluation of citizen inputs

• Web-based distributed database access for secure exploitation of credit, travel, other non-state, LEA, and USG watchlist databases

®

Threats to the “I” from the “T”

Errors & Omissions

Fire

Water

Dishonest Insiders

Disgruntled Insiders

OutsiderVirus

®GEOSPATIAL 101: MUST HAVE MAPS

• 10 meter synoptic wide area imagery from SPOT Image Corporation

• 1 meter precision urban imagery from Space Imaging Corporation

• <1 meter precision Digital Terrain Elevation Data (DTED) from shuttle mission

• Decades worth of data extraction at the 1:10,000 to the 1:100,000 level from Russian military maps

®GEOSPATIAL 101: GPS ID FOR DATA• Every building, every bridge, every tunnel, every critical infrastructure element.

• Every mobility platform, both owned and rented--especially latter.

• Every intelligence report must include GPS information for start, phase points, end points, as well as time and date stamping, both for the described event and for the report itself.

• From this will come early warning and pattern analysis gains.

®

TECHNICAL HUMAN

III - External InformationEXTERNAL

INTERNAL

OrganizationalMemory System

DataConversion

DataVisualization

HeterogeneousSearch & Retrieval

TripReports

Churning(Rotationals)

LocalKnowledge

Expert Hires“Just Enough,Just in Time”

Internal Reporting

Vendor Reporting

Government Monitoring

Customer Monitoring

Environmental Monitoring

Technology Monitoring

CHUNKS(Intellectual Property)

PERSONALITY(Insight/Intuition)

Patents, Etc.

Trade Secrets

Meta-Data

Knowledge Capital™

Rolodexes/E-Mail

Personal Brand

Out-Sourcing ofInformationProcessing

Project/GroupManagement

Training

BusinessIntelligenceInstitutionalized

E-Commerce

Automated Analysis

Cell #

IV - Organizational Intelligence

I - Knowledge Management II - Collaborative Work

®

Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form

Automated Extraction of Data Elements From

Text and Images

Standardizing and Converting Data Formats

Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data

Automated Foreign Language

Translation

Open Literature Non-Text Data Restricted Information

Detection of Alert Situations

Clustering and Linking of

Related Data

Statistical Analysis to Reveal

Anomalies

Detection of Changing Trends

Interactive Search and Retrieval of

Data

Graphic and Map-Based Visualization

of Data

Modeling and Simulations

Collaborative Work

Notetaking and Organizing Ideas

Structured Argument Analysis

Desktop Publishing and

Word Processing

Production of Graphics, Videos and

Online Briefings

Revision Tracking and Realtime Group

Review

Finished Intelligence and Reporting

A

B

C

®Desktop Software Choices

PlanPlan

ExtendExtend

ReportReport

ShareShare

OSALAT

Copernic CollectCollect

Excaliber

Topic

Analyst WorkbenchIdentifier, SIFT,

OnTopic, Labrador

GMS, Athens

Aerotext

Intelligent MinerFor Text

AnalyzeAnalyze

Content Extractor

Information Portal,Comprendium

ClearForest Suite

CrimeLink

Analyst Notebook

**C-4-U Scout

**CI Spider

**Knowledge.Works

**Market Signal Analyzer

**E-Sense

**Corporate Intelligence Service

**TextAnalyst**Plumtree Corporate Portal

**Powerize

**Strategy!

**Wincite

**WisdomBuilder

** Previously reviewed in the Fuld & Co. Software Report

Groove?

EDGE?

MindMap?

SYSTRAN+?

Other CATALYST

Elements?

®

Focus of Effort

Strategic Forecasting10% Need, 40% Cost

Primary Research & Experts on Demand20% Need, 30% Cost

Help Desk (Tell Me More Right Now)30% Need, 20% Cost

Daily/Weekly Reports40% Need, 10% Cost

®

SHOW ME THE MONEY!Striking a New Balance

TECHNICAL $$

HUMINT $$

OSINT $$

LIFERS

MID-CAREER HIRES

1-179 DAY/YR TEMPORARY EXPERTS

IC MANNING IC DOLLARS

UNCLASSIFIED

SECRET

TS

IC PRODUCTION

®

OPG VPN

Weekly Review

Expert Forum

Distance Learning

Virtual Library

Shared Calendar

Virtual Budget

Shared 24/7 Plot

Shared Rolodex

Virtual Intelligence Community Networks

®

Intelligent “IT” $100B/Year Marketplace

Federal smart IT and OSINT:

>$5B/year

US Corporate business

intelligence: >15B/year

State & Local smart IT and intel: >$5B/year

Global smart IT and

shared intel: >$75B/year

Value of Common “I” to

Generic “T”:Priceless

®

References

• ON INTELLIGENCE: Spies and Secrecy in an Open World (495 pages, amazon.com)

• The New Craft of Intelligence: Personal, Public, & Political (forthcoming in April)

• www.council-on-intelligence.org (pointers)

• www.oss.net/White.html (this/other briefs)

• www.oss.net/OSS02 (the global network)

®

HUMINT

SIGINT

IMINT

MASINT

ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS

OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION

OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE

T3

T2

T1

®

The Way Ahead

• National Security Act• DGNI in WH with three

subordinates:– D/Classified Intel.– Chairman, NIC (++)– D/$1.5B OSINT

• Homeland Security Intelligence Program– 24/7 OpIntel Center– State & City Centers

• NRO=Technical Collection• NIMA=Geospatial/USGS• NSA=Processing/ICMAP++• CIA=Analysis/ExpertNet• FBI adds econ/CT Divisions• New Clandestine Service• State/JFCOM new roles

– Digital Marshall Plan/FICE++– Ground Truth Battalions

®

The New Craft of Intelligence What Should the T Be Doing to the I in IT?

Robert David Steele<[email protected]>

Federal Convention on Emerging TechnologiesA Forum on Homeland Security

Las Vegas, 9 January 2002