Юрий Левада Ищем человека НОВАЯ история
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-
2006
, 2000 2005
-
316.7 60.56
34
2003
..34 : , 20002005
.: , 2006. 384 . ( ).
ISBN 5>98379>070>6
, ,, , > , . > ( 19882003 ) .
316.7 60.56
ISBN 5>98379>070>6 , 2006
-
5
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11 25 33 : 45 51 : .
62 76 ?
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115 .
129 . 2005
140 : .
149 : 163 :
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177 187 .
202 213 .
224
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233 248 .
263 : 271 :
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285 : 300 312 322 336 350 364
380 381 383 Summary
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( 2000 , N=1600 , % )
55 37 36 34 23 33 25 22 17 16 22 11 15 29 14 15 8 11 8 14 16 8 10 4 6 1 1 1
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( 2000 , N=1600 , % )
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2 21 36 30 11 1 16 37 36 10 2 32 39 18 10 7 49 18 7 19 8 48 27 7 9 3 21 32 31 14
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( 1994 , N=2957 , % )
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( 1994 , N=2957 , % )
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( 1994 , N=2957 , % )
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, , . , ( ) @ . (.. ) . 6064 (84%), . 5054 (92%), . 5054 (96%), . 6069 (51%), . 5559 (84%),. 5559 (51%), . 6064 (28%).( , , @ , 2529 4549 .) @. , 22% 4549 ,8% 5054 , 13% 5559 ; 26, 4 12%, 44, 16 32%.
, , 50, 510 . @ ,
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. 1917@ , 20 ( ), 3545 60 . 1945 ( 80%) 65 , .. , 6569 , , 70, XX 7074 (, 1991 ). 40 . 1993 @ : 2029 5059 .
@ , , @ (), @ @ .
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, @, 60@ (6069 ). 2123% ( 16% 718% ). , @, 40@ (4044 ). 23% ( 1113%).
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28
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., , @ 55 75 . , , 6574 . (, @ , .) 4054 . 40 .
, 60@ ( 40@) . , , @, 37% @ . , @ , . @ , 6074 (7180%) .
40@. , @ ( 23%). , : , @, 70% .
40 , , . 4044 ... @ (59% 1995 ). 3539 (31%) . 58% @ 3539 , , 40 76%.
, , ( 1994 ). @ , @ ( 65 ). ( , , ) 2030 ; , , 1213% . 40@ , , , . @ 40% ( 30%).
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4. .
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1) , 19051930 , @ , , @ . , , ; , , @ I . ( @) , 90@ I . @ .
2) 19301941 , @ . @ , , , , .. , . @ 1910 . @ 4%.
3) 19411953 , , @ , @.
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34
1 > > (. > > ). >, > > .
-
:
35
@ ( , .. , , ). @ @ ( ..), , , @ , @ . @ . @ 19201928 , 7% .
4) 19531964 . ( @ . 1953 @ 1956@, . @ , .) (, @ ), @ . @ . , ,.. 20@ 40@ ( 19291943 @). 21% .
5) 19641985 , @ . @, . 60@ @. @ (. ), @ , , , .. @ 40@ 60@ (19441968). 39% .
6) (19851999 ) , , @ 60@ ( 1969 ). 28% @ .
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, @ .
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36
2.
( 2001 , N = 2400 , % )
1.
( 2001 , N = 2400 )
I.
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:
37
@ (, , ), (@ ) , @ . @, .. ( ) , . @ ( @) ( ). : @ ( 22% 27%) . @, . , @, .
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@ : , , 1985 , . , , . : . , , , @ , @ (, , @ .). () , @ ,
3.
(1999, N = 2000 , % )
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38
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(2000, N = 2400 , % )
5. . ...
(1999, N = 2400 , % )
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(... )
(1999, N = 2000 , % )
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40
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(1999, N = 2400 , % )
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:
41
, , .. @ . @ , . ( , .) : 1917 60@. @, ( @) . , .
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53
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, @, , . @ @ (19881989), @ 1991 ( , ), @, 1993 , @ (1994 ), . , 1999 , , @ . @ : , . , @ , .
, @. .
, , . (19881989). , 1989 83%, @ 7% (N=2500 ). @ , , @ . @ @ . @, . @, , @: () @ , (@ ) @. , 1990 .
. ( 70% @ ) 19901991 , , : 1990 , , @ 1991 . , 1991 @
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1999 , @ , . , @ @ @ ; @ @ , @ @ (, @). @ . @ @, , @ . @ , . @ , , ..
, @ ( , ): , @ . @ @ , . ( @ 34% . , @ @ @ , 15%.) @ , @ @ . @ @ , .
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54
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62
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(% *)
1989 1994 1999 2003
, 26 37 48 48 , , 12 25 26 32 15 18 18 23, 38 41 35 43, 27 18 19 22 22 19 17 19 8 10 14 14 2 5 7 8, 3 8 7 8, , 5 2 3 4 , 5 6 10 7 , 14 17 19 16 , 6 9 7 7 14 16 19 15
2. , , , ,
?
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, 39 19 3 11 2 I 10 1917 4 (1990) 0 (1991) 1 . 1 10
(55 52% ), .
, (. . 3 7), @ (I ): , .
: , @ . ( ) , , , , @ .
@ @
I.
64
* 1989 --1, N=1250 - ();
1994 --2, N=3000 ;1999 -
-3, N=2000 ;2003 --4.
-
65
, .
3.
(% *)
1989 1994 1999 2003
(19141918) 8 19 18 14 1917 65 49 49 40 10 8 6 6 30> 31 18 11 17 (1945) 75 73 85 78 4 5 3 (1953) 14 13 (1956) 5 4 4 . (1961) 33 32 54 51 (19781989) 11 24 21 23 24 16 16 21 36 34 32 35 , 6 5 3 1991 7 6 7 40 47 42 . 6 2 4 1993 7 3 4 (1993) 3 1 2 24 31 (1998) 18 8 . (2000) 11
, , , , , . @ 1999 , @ , ( , @ 1998 ).
@ . , 2003 , (20% 14%) (25 ) . 1917 @ (4054 55 46% 49%), 25 23%; , @ , . (24 2540 ) (41% 37%), (27%) (41% 34%), . (17% ). 1945 , , , . , 3, 1945 @ . @ 50@, @ . , .
, .
* 1989 --1, N=1250 (); 1994 -
-2,N=3000 ; 1999 -3,
N=2000 ; 2003 -4.
-
4.
?
(% *)
1999 2003
86 87 50 59 52 51 46 48 , , 45 44 42 32 35 35 33 33 > , 22 25 , 14 13 10 14 , 12 14 12 11, 2 8 2 2
, . @ .
, @ , , () 1945 @ @ 50@ 60@. , (87% 4054 92% ). @ (65% 61% 4054 55 ). 40 @ (22%), @ (4850%), (1214%). ( ) @ , @ 1013%.
@ (. . 5).
@, , . , , , . , . , . , , .
, , 1945 . @ , , @ 1917 . @ 1945 .
I.
66
* 1999 --2, N=2000 ;
2003 --4.
-
67
, 19411945 @ ( ), , , , .. @ . @ @ , , . ( 4 5, 90% , 16%.) , @ .
5. ,
?
(% *)
1999 2003
, , 79 78 , , 45 52 48 41, , 2050> 34 39 , , 24 34 31 32 , , 17 23 16 16, , 28 20 21 18 15 9 7 5 1 2
@ ( , @ ) (. . 6).
, @ . , , , @, . @ , , , . (55 ) 2003 , . : 4054 @ 24:52, , 55 , 48:33.
. @
* 1999 --2, N=2000 ;
2003 --4.
-
, (. . 1).
6.
:
(% *)
1994 1999 2003
II 18 20 12 16 16 17 55 47 27 28 28 38 36 39 7 5 6 28 30 27 18 26 29 57 48 47 5 4 4 20 22 21 33 30 28 14 14 25 33 32 24 21 24 22 36 51 47 16 10 15 33 25 22 16 15 15 16 9 14 47 61 60 17 16 15 20 14 12 5 10 72 63 13 17 10 9 51 9 21 19
@ 1999 ( ), : - . , , @ . @ 2003 , , 1999 .
I.
68
* 1994 --2, N=3000 ;
1999 --3, N=2000 ;
2003 --4.
-
69
, ( ), . , 2003 @ @ 1999 .
: @ @ (. . 5) ? 1999 , 90@, @, . , 2050@ , ( 34 18). . @ .
, , @ @ , , @ . , 1968 . , , @ . @ (.. ), , ,, , ; .
1 , , @, @
1.
( *,
, %)
* 1994 --2, N=3000 ;
1999 --3, N=2000 ;
2003 -4.
-
. @ , ( , , ) , ( , , .). , @ . @ , @, , , @ . , , @ .
, @ . @ , @ .
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() .
1989 . 40% , 1994@ 6%, 1999@ 5%, 2003@ 4%. , , @, , .
@: 11% 28% 35% 40% @ @ .
@ @
I.
70
-
71
@ ( 1989 8@ 18%, 2003 7@ 21%).
7.
(% *)
1989 1994 1999 2003
1 77 I 56 I 45 432 40 46 42 I 433 I 39 31 42 404 25 28 35 395 22 24 26 336 21 19 20 227 19 19 19 218 18 19 18 179 18 17 18 16
10 17 16 12 1311 15 II 14 12 1312 15 11 11 1213 14 11 II 10 1214 11 10 9 1115 10 9 11
1016 10 9 8 II 1117 10 8 8 1018 10 8 7 1019 8 8 7 920 8 8 6 821 7 II 7 7
522 7 7 5 623 7 5
6 624 5 7 6
525 5 4 5
726 4 6 IV 4 527 3 6 4 IV 5
5 4 5 4
, , : 1989 @ 3%, 1994@ 9%, 1999@ 7%, 2003@ 11%.
2003 . @ 53% 55 36% ( @ 43%). (54%), (2540 ) 32%, (38%). @ (48% 46%), (44%, 35%): , . .
* 1989 --1, N=1250 (); 1994 -
-2, N=3000 -; 1999 -3, N=2000 -
; 2003 --4.
-
(, ), . . @, , , , , @ .
(18%!) , 25 , @ ( 11%) 25 55 , (5%) , 55, .. .
, . 21% ( 12%), 40%(33%), 18% (8%). , , I 38% (43%). @ (70%), (18%), (40%) (18%, 11%). , @ , (69%), @ (53%), I (47%), (10%), (13%). , , , , @ , , ..
, , @ .
, , , , . , , , ,. @ , @, , @ @ . ( , .) , , , .
, @, , @ , , @ 1. @ @, , , . ( @ . .) , , .
I.
72
1 > > , >, , , > ( . . >. ., 2003. . 107).
-
73
( 2003 ) @ , , , . @ .
@ .
8. ?
(% )
, , , 21 , , 72 7
, , . , , . , 25 20:73, @ ( 55 ) 26:65, 18:78, @ 24:65, 15:82, 29:64.
: , , @ , , @ . , @ , , , . @, .
, , @ . , @ .
9. ?
?
(% *)
1999 2003
, 23 25 , 58 49 19 26
* 1999 --3, N=2000 ;
2003 --4.
-
, ; @ , . ( 25 ) (40:36), , , 55 , 11:63. 26:49 (.. @ !), 22:52, @ 20:52.
, 2000 55% , 2004 58%, 2000 8%, 2004@ 7%. @ , (@ 1600 ).
( ) , , , 18% @ , 14% , @ 3% , @ , 4% ( , , , , .).
, @ @ @ @ II , 40@ 50@ . , , @ ( @, ).
, , , , @. , @, @ , . @ @ 80@ , . @ (, ) @ @ , .
, , . , @ , , @ . , , . , @
I.
74
-
( @ ). , @ . , , , , . . @ @. @ @. , , , @ @.
, , @ , . , , @, .
, , @ . , , . , . @ . , , , @ .
-
?
20032004 @ . , @ , , @ , , @ ., . ( @@ ) @ , , . @ 20 , @ , @ ( 19992000 @@ ). @, , , , @ .
?
. @ @1. @ @ 90@ . , . (, ) , @ , @, , , , . @ @ @ .
. @, , , .. @ . , @
I.
76
1 .: . >. ., 1989.
-
?
77
, , @ @ ( @ ). , , , . @, @ , , @ . (, ) @ , , @ , @ . 80@. .
: , , , @ , , ,, .. .. , , , , @ . @ , @ ( , , , , . ).
. @ , () , , , .
@ . XVIIIXX , @ (, ), , @ ; . @ , ,
-
, ( @) , ( @ ). @ .
@ @ , @, . ( @ , , ) , , , , , ( , , .. , ). , , , , . ,, @, @ .
(49%) , , 1985 , @, 37% @. , 40 ( 2004 , N=1600 @). 41% @, 5% ( 2004 ,N=1600 ).
(1991, 1996, 2000 2004 ) , , @ , , @ .
, . , , @ . , @ @ . 1991 @ 19891990@ ( @ ). , 1991 : 82% . ( 56% ),58% . ( 15%). @ ,
I.
78
-
?
79
; @ (@) , , @@ . , , ; @@ , @, .
(, @ 19891991 ) , @ (69% , ), . 1991 @, , 6 @ , ; .
, @ 1996 . , , @ , . @ @ , @ , @ 1993 . . 1996 @ 41% ( 9%). @ @ . , . , . @ .
@ ( ) , @ , . . @ ( , @ . ). . @ , (1996 , N=1600 ). @ . (. ) @. @, . @ , , ; @ () . .
-
, , , @ 80@ 90@ .
( ), 2000 , @ . @ , , @. , . @, ( @) @ . @ , ( ), , @ . . @ , , , @. ( @ 1999 ) , @ . . , @ . @ @. ( ) .
, . . @ , @ ; @ , , , , @ , ..
: , @ , 2000 @ , (66%), 8% ; 2004 @ 69% 11%. , , .( , , )
( , 2004 ) . @ ( ), . @ .
I.
80
-
?
81
( @, , ). @ () 2003 () , , @ , @ (, ) . @ , , @, ( @ , . ,. , . , . ..).
, , @ ( 2008 ) . , , @ . (@ ) , @ . , @, , , @ , , @ ( ), @, .. , , @ @ @ . , @, , @ .
20032004 @ . @, @ , @ (, @ ). , , . @ , , , . @ , @ ( , @ 90@ ). , , @ .. , ,
-
, , @. @ , @@.
, @ , . , . , 19992000 @ (@, , , .).
@ . @ .
1. ,
, , 19912004
(19912004, N=1600, % , ,
)
, * 1991 1996 2000 2004
1819 41 47 32 612024 58 47 29 502529 59 51 28 583039 67 43 37 524049 68 37 39 545054 68 42 40 535559 64 42 38 6260 59 34 37 55 ... 42 46 46
. (30 ) . @ , @ .
.
: 4050 , . , @ ( 2004 @ . 40% 60% ), @, .
2000 35% @,
I.
82
* - 1991 .
-
?
83
, 50% , . 2004 , . @ , , @ (21%), (53%). @ .
2. ,
, 19912004, %
(N=1600, % )
, 1991 1996 2000 2004
1819 42 52 49 522024 27 41 57 552529 22 42 33 433039 13 35 37 404049 8 27 26 345054 7 21 21 285559 5 19 30 3160 14 19 19 22 16 29 31 35
@ . 1996 43% @, 2000@ 59%, 2004@ 62%. , ( ) @ @ .
, , , @, . @ . , , . , , . , . . @ @, . ( , , @ .)
, , . , @ , .. , , , @, , .
49% , @, . , ( 9% , 40% ), 32% ( 9%); 14% @ . , @, 49:46. 39% @ , , 28% ,
-
12% , 18% . , . , , .
3. . 4
(59 2004 , N=1600 , % )
*
, 13 6 +7 , 24 21 +3 5 3 +2 4 2 +2 3 2 +1 1 3 2 2 4 2 2 5 3 , 5 11 6 1 8 7 10 18 8 0 13 13 , 5 19 14 1 25 24 , 2 29 27 1 34 33 1 36 35 1 2 1 / 15 2 13 6 9
14 , , . @ . 30% (14% @ ) , @ , 39% (18% ) , @, , 29% (13% ) , .
, . , @ . @, .
4. / *
( 2000 2004 , N=1600 , % )
2000 2004
** 40/19 , ** 31/13 33/15 27/12 25/12 28/12 36/25 21/9 33/14 21/8 6/2 20/10
I.
84
* - .
* , -
2004 20% .
** .
-
?
85
, @ , , @ : 2000 @, 2004@ .
, @ .
@, . , , , @ . @ , @ , , @ . (, ; , @ @ .) @, , @ @ , .
@ , 1999 , @ (@), ( ), ( @). @ , , @. @ @; @, . @ .
. @ @ , . , , , @ . ( , .)
@ , @
-
. @ . . @, , @ ( ), @. , . @ , () 1999 , @ 20032004 .
, , @, .. , @ ( , , .), @ . , , . , @ , , @ , @ . , @ @ , , , . , , @ @ .
2004 .
5.
?
( 2004 , N=1600 , % )
6 , , 19 ; , > , 24 10 . , , 13 28
, , , @ .
@ . 2003 , , @
I.
86
-
?
87
. 2004 @ 13% , , ,17% , 60% .
20032004 , @@ , @ . , , , , @, .
, @ . . , @ , @ , @, , , @, , @. , @ , @ . , .
, , , , , @ . @, @ .
( ) , @ . , 2004 77% (!) , @ @ . , , 68% , . , 54% , (32% , ).
( ) , @ , @, , . @ @ ,
-
. , @ @ . .
, @ , @ @ . , 2004 61% ( 6% @ ), 12% ( 29%), 9% (@ 33%). (, , @ .)
. .
6. . ?
( 2000 2004 , N=1600 , % )
2000 2004
15 19 48 57 17 12 7 4 13 8
7.
. ?
( 2000 2004 , N=1600 , % )
2000 2004
2 4 29 34 38 37, 10 13, 12 5 4 5 1 1
, @ , @, .. , @ . , .
8. , ?
( 2004 , N=1600 , % )
, 53 , , 14 , , , 9 , 13 11
I.
88
-
?
89
@ . 2004 30% , , 45% @, 13% , . (35%), (11%), (48%) .
@, .. , , (2003 , N=1600 ) @, , . ( 2004 21% ). @ , . @ @ . 2003 @, , , ( ) 1999 , 20%, @ .
: ,
20032004 @. , . .
, (,). , , , , . , , , . , . , , 56 , @ . , , . . : @ . , @ ( @ ).
-
@ , . , ( @), . , @ , @ , @ , , .
I.
-
?
91
? 11
11 2001 @ , , , . @ , @ , , .. @, , 11 . @ , , @. , @ @ . , @ @ . @, ., , @ , @, .
@ . @ @ 1.
@ 11 . , , @ @ @ . , , . (@ , ., .. @ ) @ , . .
, , @
1 (N=1600 >). > .
-
. Gallup, , 2002 ,80% 11 (CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, 2002 ). 74% , @, , , 21% @ , (Ipsos@Reid Poll, 11 2001 ). 37% , , , 41% , , 45% @, (MORI, 2001 ). ?, ? ..
@ , , @ . @ , 2001 @,53% , @ , 41% .
, (, @) @ , :
. 2001 @ ( , @ 11 ) .
. @, , . 11% , @ . 64% 26% , (Gallup@Pakistan, 2001 ).
, , @ ( @ @ ) .
, @ ; @ , .
, ( @, , 11 , @ , ..). , , @ , , @, . , ( , , @, ), , , @, .
I.
92
-
?
93
( @) 11 .
@, , 2001 @ , , , . , @ , @. , ( ), . @ . 2001 80% ( 15%) , @ , @ . , 2002 , 70%,, 15% 26%. @ : 2001 , . , 2001 2002 , , (78% 76% @). , , , : , @ . @ .
@, : , @ . , , @ , @ . ( @@ @ ). , , , , . 5% 2001 . , @@ .
, @. @ . 2001 50% ( 2002 52%) , @ , , , , , .. @ , , @, . @,
-
., @, , @ .
, , , , @ , , 11 , . , @ , 2001 @ 44% ( 48%), 2002 46% (48%). , , @, 2001 47%, 2002@ 46%. 44% @, 42% , 45% . , : 96%, @ 61%, 75% 2001@ 67% . : , @ @ ?
@, , , , (, , @ , ). , @ , ( , , , ). @ , , ; .
@, . , , (, ), . @: , , , @ ( , .. @, , ). @ , . , , . @ , . ,
I.
94
-
?
95
, @ , , @, , @ , , , @ . , 11 , @ . , , @ .
, , @ , @, . , , @, @ . @ ( ), . @, ( ) @ , , .
, 11 , , @, ( , , ) . , @, @ , @, , @ . @ @, @ . ( , @ .)
11 @ , ( ) . @ , . , , @ , , , /, @, , @ .. @ @. @ ( ) ,
-
. , @ (@ , ..).
@ @, , , ( ) , , .
, , , @ 11 , @ ( , , , @ ). @ , 2.
, , @ , . @, @ , , @ , , @ @ . @ , , , .. @, @ , @ , ,, ..
@ , ( 11 ) , , , , .. , , . , , , @ , , , @ . . , @ @ (XIXXX ), @ , , .
I.
96
2 . > , > , , . , > >> , > (> . 2002. 1016 >. 35).
-
?
97
@ @. ( . @ ; , , , .. , .)
, , , , , .. , @ 11 . , , , @ ( , .. ).
, , @, 3. , @, .
@
, @ ( @ ). , . , @, , , . , ( ) @, , @ ., @ @ .
@ .
2001 , @ (45% @) (45%), @ (29%), (27%), (13%), (9%). ( 2001 ) @ (42%), (35%), , (31%), @ (30%).
, , @ .
3 > > , (.2002. 11 ).
-
:
1.
(Newsweek Poll, 2021 2001 , % )
68 21 5 6 64 22 9 5 53 32 11 4 , 37 36 20 7 , . 28 39 26 7
, , @ @ (26%), (22%), (20%), (11%) (Harris Poll, 2001 ). 32% @ , , , 50% (Newsweek Poll, 1314 2001 ).
, @ , @ (48%), (25%), (12%) (10%) (Gallup Pakistan, 1112 2001 , ). @ , (51% ) . @, 82% , .. , 6% . , @ , , @ , , @, . ( , 12 , 2001 Gallup, @ .)
, ,, , . . @ , @ , . , , ( ) @ ; , , . , @ ( ), , @ , .
I.
98
-
?
99
, , @ , @, , , .
11 , @, , ( ) . ( , ) , . (, , @ ..). , . @ , @ @ @ . @@ .
@ . @, , . @ . @, , @ , ( ). , , .. @ 11 ? , , , ,@ . , @ . , , , . @ , @ , , .
2001 (N=400 ) , . @, 35% , ,10% (, ), (44%) @ .
, . @ @ ,
-
@ ( G8). , .
. @ : 2002 77% @ , . ( ), . , , .
2001 @ , . , , . , 46% @ 2001 , , @ . , 35% , 29% . , , , , @ @ (, @) .
2001 , . , , . , @ 2001 . @ @ , , . @ , . , , , , . , , @ , @ , @ .
@ 2002 , . (,, ). , , @ , @ , ( , @ , ). , , @ .
I.
100
-
?
101
. , @ @ . , . @ @ , . . . . , .
. 11 2001 @ 22 1941 . , . , @ , @ . , , , ; @ , , . @ .
. @ , . @ , @ @ , , .
, , ( ) .
. , . @ @ , 4.
@ @ , . . 11 2001 @ , .
4 > > > , . (. 2002. 1016 . 35).
-
, @ . , , @ . , 2001 39% @ , , , , 49% @ , 55% , 62%, .. , @ .
@ : 2001 . @ @ (.. @ 2:1). : 2002 80% , @ 30%. , , @ (?).
, 2001 @ . . , , @ , , , ( ) @, , , , . , . (, @ .) , , .
, . , , , , .
11 , @ ( ). , @, .., . @
I.
102
-
?
103
, , , @ .
@? ? @ ( ) , , , ? ,
5.
, , , @ .
. , @ @ @ . @ , ( @, ) , @ . , , . . ,
(, , , @ ) .
( 2002 ) , , . , , @ (51%) (28%), @ , , , (18%), @ (18%), (16%), (15%). ( @) (8%), @ (7%) (5%). (10%), @ , . @ (38%), @ (36%), (26%), @ (25%). (11%), @ (11%), , (10%),
5 .: . // > .2002. 2 [= . > : 19972002 . ., 2004.C. 496551]; . > > // > . 2002. 3[= . >: > . ., 2004.. 286299]; > Esprit, 11 (Esprit. 2002.Aotseptembre).
-
, , @ (7%), @ (6%), , (6%). 3% @ , .
, , @ @ @ . @ ( , ). , , , , ( , , @). , , @, , .
, , @ .
2. , ,
?
(% )
* ** % %
1 57 5 39 2 41 6 34 3 39 2 66 4 36 8 16 5 20 1 67 6 17 9 14 7 16 6 23 8 16 3 49 9 12 4 42 10 8 1011 7 11 4 1011 7 12 3 12 4
: * , 2002 ; ** So fres , 2000 .
, , @ , , . , , -, , , . @ . , , @ @, , 6. @ , , , @ . , , @
I.
104
6 > >, , , , > >; >, (Esprit. 2002.Aotseptembre. P. 176). . . . > : 2002 > 3% >, , >
-
?
105
, . ( ) @ , , @ @ .
, 2001 , 65% ,
, 5% @, 29% , . , , , . , @, , @ @ (Sofres).
, , .
.
3. , , ,
,
?
(Pew Research Center Survey, 2125 2001 , % )
, 38 59, 47 25 15 14
, 2002 , 55% @ 11 (Financial Times.2002. 4 September).
@ ?
, , , @ , , .
, @ . @ .
, @ , . @ .
, @, . ( @ , .. ). @, @ @
, 91% , > ( > 14:65)(Worldviews 2002 Survey ofEuropean Public Opinion &Foreign Policy, http://www.world>views.org).
-
, @ , .
, @ , , @ (), ( ), , @ .. , @, , ( ) . , , (,), @ .
, @ @ , @ 11 . , , , , . , . , , , @ , @, .
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11 @. @ @ , (@ ) ( ).
I.
106
-
?
107
. , , , .. , . (, , @ .) , , @ @ , .
, , , , , @ @. , 2001 43% , 2002@ 38% (Gallup PollAnalysis, 11 2002 ). , , , @ @, .
@ @. , , ( @). , 53% , @ ; 52% . @ , ( , , , @ ?), 63% @ , , 35% (Associated Press Poll, 26 2002 ). , @ 2002 , 11 , , , , 30% (Gallup Poll Analysis, 9 2002 @). 2001 63% ( 32% ), 2002@ 49% 45% (Gallup Poll Analysis, 11 @, 2002 ).
, . , P . , @ ( ) @ . ( ), @ 2001 80%, 65%, ., , , @, .
@ @
-
( , , , ). , @ .
4. ?
(Gallup Poll, % )
2001 53 33 11 3 2002 66 25 7 2 2002 41 35 15 9 2002 37 46 14 3
5. ?
(Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll, % )
2001 47 32 21 2001 67 15 18 2002 36 43 21
@ . 2002 24% , 62%. , @ , 11 , ; , . 15% @ 2002 , 12% , 70% , (Pew Research Center Survey,1425 2002 ).
, . 2002 @ . , . @ , . @ .
, , (, , rally around the flag). @ @ 11 , , @ . 50% 2002 , 11 , 15% , 28% (Asso@ciated Press Poll, 26 2002 ). , , . 2002
I.
108
-
?
109
. 75% , 67%, 85%. .
, . 2002 34% , @ , 30% @ , 10% , 3% ; 19% , @ (Fox News Poll, 89 2002 ).
, @ 11 - . , @ . : , @
11 , , 7 @ @ .
, , , , . @ ( ) , .
2001 57% , @ ( 28% ); 2002 53% , 36%. 2002 ( ), 7% , 34% ; 37% , 38% ( 2002 ). , @ .
, , , , . @ : , @ , @/ , . , 2001 , , @ .
, @ . 2001 51% ( 32%) , @ , 2002 @ 29%, 63% (Newsweek Poll).
7. 2002. 612 >. 2.
-
, , , , @, . , , , 1989 , .
. 2001 @ , ( @ Sofres), , . , @ @ (MORI).
, , , 11 @ . ( @) , , , . , , (). @ (@ , @, ).
@ @ , , @ . , ( , ). , , @@ . . , , @, 8.
, 2001 17% @ , , 72% (Newsweek Poll). , (. . 6).
@ , . 32% @ , @, 62%, , (Newsweek Poll, 1314 2001 ). , 37% , , 61% (CNN/US Today/Gallup Poll, 89 2002 ).
I.
110
8Esprit. 2002. Aotseptembre.P. 73.
-
?
111
6. , ,
(Harris Poll, 1925 2001 , % )
76 11 3 10 73 13 2 10 46 35 4 15 42 38 3 17 29 50 4 16
48% ( 30%) @ , , @ @ (Newsweek Poll, 2001 ).
, 11 @, ( , ) ( , @, ). , @, @ , .. . , ( , 2001 ) 41% . , , @ (29%); 26% ( 2001 ). , .
, , (. ). @ , , , . , @, , . , , , @ , @. .
(. . 7).
@ , @, , , . , , @ , . @ . , , , , ,
-
. , , @ . @, , I , , , .
7. , , 11 2001
( 2002 , N=1600 , % )
35 , 53 6
34 47 8
12 50 31
16 46 27
, @ , 11 2001 @, . @ , , @. , , @, , @ , .. .
, @ , , , , . , , @ , . @ , @ . @ .
?
11 , @
I.
112
-
?
113
, @@ . , @ , @ , . , @ , @, , , , @@ , , , @ . , , @ , , . (@) @, ( ) @, ., .. , , . . , @. .
@ , , @ (, , , ). , @ , , , , , , . , , ( , @) (, , @, ) , . . : @ , ; , , . , @@ . , @@ , @ (, ) , .
, . @ , @ , , , , @ @ . , @ , , @ , .
-
, , @, , , @. , @ , @ (, ) , @ .. , , , , @ . @ , ;@, , @, , 11 . , , , @, .
. @ 9. @ (resurgence), , , @ @ 10. ,, , , @ @. @ , , , , @, , , , .. @ .
@ , , , , , . , , , . @ , @ ( ).
XIX @ @ ; @ ( ) , , , . . ( , .. @ ) . , . , , @ 11 2001 .
I.
9 > (>) > . > > (Huntington S.P.The Clash of Civilization and theRemaking of World Order. N.Y.,1997. P. 78).
10 Ibid. P. 109110.
-
115
, @ , . 2003 , @ @ , . , @. , , , @ . , , . , @ , , @ , , .
, @. I , @ . @, @ . , @ 11 2001 2003 , , I .
, , @ , , @ .. @ , . , .
,
-
, ( ,) 11 2001 . ( @ .) , , ., , , , @ @ , @ , @ .
@ () @, .. , @, , , @ , @ , , , @ . ( @@, , @, ) @ @. , , , @ 5080@ .
. , 11 , @ ( ) @ . , , , , , @, @. @ 1. @ , , , @. , @ .
, , . , , @ @, . 2001 @ @ ,
I.
116
1. >? 11 > .
-
117
( , ), @ . ,, , @ .. @ ; @ . ( ) @ , , @ , . @ , , @ .., .
, @ , @@ , , @ . @ , @ , , , , . @ .
, :
@ (, @) (@@): , @ . , , @ , , @ ( @ ) . , 2003 , , @, . @ , , , - , . ( ) /@ @ .
-
, , ..
: , .. @ @ . , @ , ( ), .
, , , @ , @ . , , @ , ,, @ . , , , . -. , @ , , , , @ , , , . @ 11 2001 @ , . : , @ , . , @, , , @ .
@ . @ , @ @ (, ), . , , @ , . , , . @ , ( ) . , (), ; @ , ., @ .
(, , ), @@ @ (, ),
I.
118
-
119
.. , @ . , @ @ , . @ () ( ) @ . , @ () @ , , .
@ . @, , , , . , @ , , @ , , . @ , @, , , , @, .. , @ . , . @: , . , @ @ , @@ , , .
( ), .
@ . @ (, , .), : , @ 2001 , . , , , @, ,
-
, 1945 (, , .), , . , @ , , .
, , @ .
( 1992 ) : 1999 ( ) 17, 2003@ 38. , @
I.
120
2. , 20022003
( , ,
N=1600 , %)
1. , 20022003
( , ,
N=1600 , %)
-
121
. 1 2 (. 1) (. 2).
, @ : ( @) . , @ .
, , . @ @ @ .
1. ?
( 2003 , N=1600 , % )
* ** ***
19 55 36E 30 68 38 35 62 27 34 64 30 39 57 18 27 66 39
@ ( @ ). , (. ) @ , . , @, @ @ .
, @, 89% , 91% , 89% , 86% @ 70% . ( ) 84%, ( ) 85%( 2003 , N=1600 ). @ : , , , , @ ( ) , , . , .
, , , @ @
* .
** .
*** - .
-
. @ ( ) @@ , @ . , , , , @ @ ( ..). @ , , @ ( @), @ . ,, , , , , @ , .. . ( .), .
( ,.. ) @ .
2.
( 2003 , N=1600 , % )
,
45 38 3 14 46 45 3 7 47 35 2 16 60 28 4 8 50 30 13 7 44 38 6 12
, , . @ ( ) . @ , @ ( ). , ( , @) .
(. . 3). @ . , . ( @ ) @ .
I.
122
-
123
, . ( ) ( ). , .. @ . , @ @ , @ , @ .
3.
?
(2003, N=1600 , % )
2 3 , 83 80 , 9 11 5 4 2 2
4. ,
(N=1600 , % )
2001, 2003, 61 48 40 61 51 43 , 51 61 19 10 , 8 5 17 11 , , 15 18 17 10 4 5 3 1 11 15 18 17 2 1
2001 , @ 2003@ .
, , . @ : , .. , . @ (
-
, , , @ ), @ (, , ; 7% 2003 @, , 7%). @ , @ .
, : @@, ( 78% , 72% 78% @ ), @, , @ . @ .
5. ?
(N=1600 , % )
1999, 2003,
, * 25 23 58 60
, ** 38 33 39 49
32 28 45 53
, @ 2003 , . , : 1999@ . . , 2003@ @ . . , @ ( , 2002 ).
6.
( 2003 , N=1600 , % )
. 2 39 53 2 30 56 2 25 63
I.
124
* .
** .
-
125
: ( , , ) .
2003 , @ . , , , (. . 1, 2).
, , @ , (, ), @ . @ , , . @ ,, , @ , , @ , @. . , , 1999 , @, .
2001
, 11 2001 , , , , @ , @ . , , , , @ , @ . , @ , , @ . @ @ . , .
@. , @ (..
-
) . , @/ . @ 2001 , , , ( , ). , , @, @ ( @), @ . , .
:
, . , @ . @ , @ , 2003 71:17, 71:14. , . , @ . @ , @, , , @ , . @ , @ (. .) @. , @ .
, . @ @ @. 2002 , , @, , . , @ .
I.
126
-
127
?
(, , ) , @@ . @ @ , @ ,@ , . 1999 , @ , .
@ . ( , , , , .) @, ( , @), , @, . G8 . @. , @ 11 2001 . @ ( ) , @ ( : , @ ), , , @ . , , @ .
, @ ( ). , , , .
, . , , @ , , . @ @ . , .
-
, @ , , , . , . , @@ . , @ (20032004) , , @ @ , .
I.
-
129
2005
@ , , @ @ , , @ . , , ,, . @ , , @ @ .
, , . @ , ( @ ), @ , , , . , @ @ , @ , , , @. , . @ .
?
, @ @ , , .. @ , @ ( 2004 70% @ ). :
-
( 51% 2005 , N=1600 ). @ . , , ,, . , ( ) , , @ : , @ ; , @ , , .. , @, . @ . @ , . @ : @ @ (,) . , , @ , . , , @ .. , ( , ). @, @ , @ , ().
, @ .
1.
?
( 2005 , N=1600 , % )
7 12 21 8, 25 25
I.
130
-
131
, 13% , 55 , , 30% , ; , 25 , 40% , (22%) (20%) .
( 42% @, 47%) @, .. ( @ @). (32%), @ (25%), , @ (24%). , , , 15% @ , 74% (@ 2005 , N=1600 ). 16% 64% ( ) , @ , .
, , @ . , . @ , @ () . ( , @) .
@ : @ , , @ . @ .
2. ?
(2005, N=1600 , % )
>1* >2**
12 12 15 12 13 21 25 27 26 28 23 25 21 24 22 34 29 26 26 22 10 11 12 15 33:57 37:54 42:47 38:50 41:44
@ , @ , , . ( 26% , , 43% , 13% , @ , 20% , 39% .)
* 2025 . ** 22 2 .
-
, , .
, , .
2004 , @ , 14% , @ , 2005 30%, 37% (, ), 28%, 18%. @ @ , @ 0,5% , 200400 . , 12 @, @ , @ 200 . , - , - .
3.
(2005, N=1600 , % )
41 37 33 32 , 41 41 44 44 10 13 16 12 8 9 8 12
4. ,
, ?
(2005, N=1600 , % )
12 10 8 14 13 13 31 32 30 36 38 44 0,4 0,4 0,2 7 6 5
@ .
( , ) 7080% . @ . , 2005 @ (
I.
132
-
133
, ), ..
5. ( )
(2005, N=1600 , % )
1824 2539 4054 55
26 19 37 23 42 31 31 40 , 47 50 46 50 39 48 34 36 12 18 9 19 10 14 9 15 15 13 8 8 9 7 6 9
6.
( )
(2005, N=1600 , % )
1824 2539 4054 55
4 3 7 3 12 9 20 11 9 9 11 8 16 15 16 15 32 32 36 32 27 32 29 30 49 51 39 53 35 40 28 37 6 5 7 4 10 4 7 7
, , . @ .
7.
(N=2100, % *)
2004, 2004, 2005, 2005, 2005,
, , ? 19 23 25 36 32 68 60 57 45 54
, ? , 21 23 27 27 24 , 66 63 57 57 58
/ ? 18 21 21 27 24 67 59 58 52 55
2005 , , . @ . @ , , , , .
, @ ( , @, ). @ @
* .
-
, .. @ .
, , . (, , @ XIX .) @ (47% 41%) @ . 53%( 38%). , , , .
?
8.
?
(2005, N=1600 , % )
. 23 22 18 38 37 41 , (. .) 14 16 15 12 11 10 , 5 6 6, , 1 3 2 , , 1 2 3
.
9.
?
( )
( 2005 , N=1600 , % )
1824 2539 4054 55
. 20 20 23 28 44 40 37 36 11 16 12 15 11 23 15 10 , 7 5 7 4, 4 1 1 1 , 1 1 3 1
@ . @ @ .
(.. ) .
I.
134
-
135
10. ?
( 2005 , N=1600 , % )
30 53 24 18 35 42 34 45 36 49 50 57 32 47 16 11 21 26 8 17 9 9 1 6 6 10 11 8 * 19:54 8:78 27:44 13:30 21:44 23:38 23:65
11.
, , ?
( 2005 , N=1600 , % )
7 16 5 9 8 13 5 12 25 9 9 12 17 15 32 28 35 14 37 27 32 44 27 47 66 43 36 48 4 3 4 3 8
, @, , @ @ . @ , @ . , , , @ ( ) .
@ . @ , , (27%), (12%), (8%), (7%), 2% @; 25% , 29% ( 2005 ,N=1600 ).
(). .
@ , , , , ., , . , , , , @ .
* -, -
(, -) (-
, , ).
-
@ . @ , @ , , . (,, ) . , @ . @ @ , , @ ( @ ). , , , , , . @, @ @ . , , , , , , @. @ , @ .
, @ , :
12.
( 2005 , N=1600 , % )
, 54 , 31 , , , > 24 , 20 , 20
, @ ( , ) . (, ) .
, @ . 29% , , 18% ( , ,
I.
136
-
137
: 35% @, , @ , ),11% @ , . , 10% , @, , , @
, @ @ , , , , , @ , , . @ @ , , . , @ ( @ ). @ , . @ , @1.
@, , ( 2004 ) , , ( ). , , , , .. . , , @ , , . ( ,
.)
.
1 , > > >, .
, . > > , > > . > . >, . , . > . > , > . > > , > > . . , > > : , , , > >> , > > . > >, > , . >, > (> >> > : . ., 2005).
-
, . @ , @ ; ( 1962@ ) . @ (, ) , , @ , @. , @, .
, 2005 , . , . @ @ @ @ . , , @ . @ , @ @ . @ , @ ; . @ , @ , (@ ). @, , , . . (, , ) . @ 2 ( @ , ..). , , @. @ . @, @ (, ..).
I.
138
2 > ,, , > , > , , . , >>. . > > . >, , . , , > , . > ., 20 , > > (> > > : . ., 2005).
-
:
@, , @ . , . @, @ . , , , @ @; , @ (, @ , ) ,, .. 2005 @ . , . @ .. 2005 ,59% , , 18% . . () , , @ .
@. @ , @ . , , , , . ( @ ).
2005 @ , , , . @@ ; ( @ @ ) , , , , .
-
:
@ , 20 , ( , 1987 ), . , @, . @,, @ . @, @ , .. , , ,.
.
?
1. ,
1985 ?
(1994, N=3000 ; 1999, 2003, N=2000 , % )
1994 1999 2003
44 58 44 34 27 35 22 15 21
2005 (48% 40%) , , @ ( 1985 ). .
2. ,
1985 ?
( 2005 , N=1600 , % )
, 1824 2539 4054 55
26 8 17 28 42 22 16 20 26 24 24 28 32 23 16 16 24 17 16 10 * 48:40 24:52 37:49 54:39 66:26
@ .
I.
140
* - .
-
:
141
3. , ,
1985 ?
(N=2000 , % )
1999 2003
, 37 26 32 26 22 17 43 24 30 20 , , 7 4 , 10 6
.
4. , ,
1985 ? ( )
(N=2000 , % )
, 1624 2539 4055 55
, 1999 18 28 43 522003 9 16 31 44
1999 14 26 34 462003 11 17 26 45
1999 20 21 24 232003 7 14 25 45
1999 30 37 45 52
2003 9 14 28 38 1999 20 25 29 42
2003 8 13 20 34 , , 1999 5 5 6 11
2003 2 1 4 7 , 1999 8 7 14 10
2003 1 4 6 10
40@. , , , , @ .
5. , ,
1985 ?
( 2005 , N=1600 , % , )
10
29 17 38 18 11 24 29 26 14 20 16 8 15 11 16
, 1985 (@ ).
: -
-.
: -
-.
-
.
6. , ,
1985 ?
( 2005 , N=1600 , % , )
14 33 21 25 27 21 23 12 15 9
, @ .
7. , ,
1985 ?
( 2005 , N=1600 , % , )
21 36 22 24 26 19 18 12 13 9
, @ , , 1985 , ( , ), , . , @ ? @, @ 20@. , , . @.
@ 1985 .
8. , ,
1985 ? ( )
(2003, N=2000 , % )
, 1524 2539 4054 55
19 22 29 17 8 , 20 24 27 21 10 , 9 9 12 11 4 16 20 23 14 8 , , 11 16 15 10 5 , 5 9 8 3 3
I.
142
-
:
143
9. ,
1985 . ?
( )
( 2005 , N=1600 , % )
, 1824 2539 4054 55
3 5 5 3 1 18 27 23 17 11 12 16 15 10 8 37 23 33 45 39 19 9 14 17 31 11 21 10 7 10 * 21:56 32:32 28:47 20:24 19:70
@ ; @ .
10. ,
1985 . ?
( )
( 2005 , N=1600 , % )
0 5 0 4 4 36 25 23 5 13 15 18 49 25 34 26 35 14 19 20
, (41:39). @, . !
11. ?
(% *)
1994 1999 2003
, 53 23 47 32 49 33 29 33 21 50 29 40 45 23 43 23 61 18 44 28 50 25 63 19 23 36 32 26 41 24 47 19 38 23 55 22
, , , @, . ( ): @ , , .
* -,
, ,
-.
* 1994 --2, N=3000 ;
1999 --3, N=2000 ;
2003 --4.
-
, @. , ( ) . , , , @ . , . , : ,
12. , , ,
? ( )
( 2005 , N=1600 , % )
, 1524 2539 4054 55
() 40 41 40 45 36 , , .. 22 14 21 26 23 43 41 36 , 19 14 23 19 17 , , 11 12 13 8 12 7 12 16 18 13 7 2 5 10 7 21 23 22 24 15 6> ( ) 13 12 12 12 14 () 23 29 28 21 17 24 18 19 25 29 12 14 14 12 10 , , 14 17 12 15 13 12 10 11 14 13 12 10 11 13 12 34 25 30 37 40 , , , 8 5 5 12 8 16 10 14 22 15
.
13. . ?
( )
( 2005 , N=1600 , % )
, 1524 2539 4054 55
0 0 1 0 1 9 8 8 11 8 2 2 3 2 1 6 5 8 7 4 11 6 8 12 13 12 7 8 13 15 4 3 2 4 8 , 7 12 4 6 14 5 10 4 5 3
I.
144
-
:
145
@, , , ( ) . @. , @ , , , (, @, .). @ , @ , @ @ . @ . : @, . @ @ .
, @ @ , . . . . , @ , , . , . !
?
@ . , , @ , , @ , @ ( @ , , .). , @ ( ) . @ .
-
?
@ . . , @ . . , . , , . , , @ , . , @ . @ : (, ) , @ . , @ .
, , (. 12), , . @, , . , @ ( ) . , , , , , @ , . @ . , , , .
@ @ @. , , , @ . @ , . , . , ..
I , . ( @
I.
146
-
:
147
, , . 12, .) , @ @ , , @, ( @ , ), . , . @ . , ( , , , ) ( @), , , . . @ ( ..), , @
, @ , , . ( @ ), , , , @, , .. , @ (. . , . @ . ) , .
, @ , . , @ . @@ : @ ( , , 19891991 @, ). (, , @, .) . , .
(@) 1991 . , . @
-
, , . . @ @ , ., @ ( ).
, @ , , . :@, , @, . .
I.
-
:
149
:
>
, , .. @ @, @ . @ , , . @ (, , ), @ , @ . , @ . , .
, , @ . , @ , ., , . @ , @ , @ . @ , @, @ . , @ , , , . .
( @ ) , @ , @ @, 90@ . @
-
@ .. . ( 90@, . . , , . . @.) @ , () @ .( , @ , , , @ .)
, @, , ( ). @ @, , , @ . , , , , @ . @@ , , .
, @ : , @ , . , ( ). @ , . @ ( @ , , ) @ .
@ , , @, , , @, , ., @, .
@ / (, @, ; ). ( jobapproval) , (.. ,
I.
150
-
:
151
, ). @ ( ) . , 56 , . ( 34 @) , , -/ , , . @ . @ ( , ..). , . , ., , .
.
, / . .
1. .
( 2005 , N=1600 , %
> )
* ** ***
100 69 29 39 12 46 67 32 37 11 54 71 27 41 13
, 1824 14 83 16 39 142539 28 81 18 44 114054 29 60 38 33 9 55 29 60 39 39 15 , 45 42 50 44 47
16 69 29 39 10 56 70 28 37 11 28 66 33 42 17
, @, , , , @. , , @. ( 4 5) , : .
. .
* .** , -
-.*** -
, . .
-
2. .
( 2005 , N=1600 , % , )
100 66 29
, , , ? 11 86 10 27 79 19 38 61 33 30 51 43
( 3000 .) 14 55 36 (30005000 .) 20 69 29 (50009000 .) 18 68 29 ( 9000 .) 16 63 32
I.
152
2. / ,
K, 20042005
( , ,
N=1600 , % )
: -
-.
1. . , 20042005
(N=1600 , % )
-
:
153
( ) , , .., , .
3. .
( 2005 , N=1600 , % , )
100 69 29 39 12
37 46 11 55 62 51 38 81 33 25
* 34 43 17 44 47 ** 64 55 81 52 51
, . , . , , , @ ( 5) @ . @ , , .
4.
.
( 2005 , N=1600 , % , )
100 69 29 39 12
* 41 56 10 51 55 * 44 39 56 36 33 32 25 48 26 25 44 47 35 49 43 13 15 8 15 21
* .
@ , 40% , @ . 70% (@ ). @ , .
.
* .
** .
-
5. .
( 2005 , N=1600 , % , )
100 69 29 39
12 17 1 22 57 71 24 71 19 7 48 4 6 1 18 0 6 4 9 3
, 12%, 17%, .. , 22%. . (1824 ) 14% @ (55 ) 15%, (30%) 4054 .
6. .
( 2005 , N=1600 , % , )
100 69 29 39
, . 16 22 3 26 , . 36 44 20 42 , 42 32 64 30 6 2 13 2
@ . , @ @, 7 @ , , @ .
7. , , . ?
(N=1600 , % )
2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005,
, . 14 21 15 16 16 , . 43 44 46 40 36 , 34 31 34 41 42 9 4 5 3 6
2005 @ .
I.
154
-
:
155
@ @ .
8. .
( 2005 , N=1600 , % , )
100 69 29 39 12
5 6 1 7 18 27 37 6 48 56 36 41 22 38 25, 13 9 22 4 , 7 3 14 1 9 2 28 , 2 0 6
, ( , ,). , @ , ( 5) @ .
, .
9. .
( 2005 , N=1600 , % , )
100 69 29 39
. 18 26 2 31 . , 21 28 4 33 . , 14 7 28 4 . , , 7 6 6 5 . 22 26 14 24 . 13 3 35 2 , . 2 0 5 0
@ . @ ( ), .
, /@, , @ @, , .
-
@ , , , . . , , @ . (, ) @ @ ( @@) @. , @ . .
, , , . , .
10. . .
, , .
( 2005 , N=1600 , % , )
100 69 29 39 12
* 45 59 13 64 82** 53 38 85 33 16
, * 33 43 10 48 73** 64 54 87 48 22
* 40 51 5 57 69** 50 39 77 36 23
* 64 74 42 80 85** 30 22 51 17 8
* 35 41 22 47 66** 60 54 75 48 28
* 29 35 15 40 56** 63 56 81 51 30
@ ( ) @ . @ , , .
I.
156
: - .
* -.
** - .
-
:
157
.
2005 (N=1600 ) 35% , , , 9% . @ 31:11, @ 66:22, @ 46:39. . . . ( @) 17% , , 20% 21% .
11. . .
. ?
( 2005 , N=1600 , % , )
100 69 29 39 12
* 32 39 21 48 65** 53 57 73 29 29
/ * 20 24 11 27 36** 77 73 87 70 60
, , * 46 50 34 53 62** 47 43 58 39 30
@ .
3. . ...,
20002005
( , ,
N=1600 , % )
* - , .
** -- .
-
, 40% @.
.
12. . .
, .
K ?
( 2005 , N=1600 , % , )
100 66 31 39
58 50 83 45 37 45 15 51 5 5 3 4
, , , @ . : @ 2000 47:49, 2001@ 47:43, 2003@ 51:40, 2004@ 57:37; (58:37) @ .
, @ , @ , 1999 . , @ , .
13. . .
, , ?
( 2005 , N=1600 , % , )
100 69 29 39 12
8 8 8 7 1 20 26 8 30 30 , 43 33 64 26 32 12 16 5 22 14
, , @ , ( @
I.
158
: -
-.
-
:
159
) , @. . ( @ , @ ) .
, 25 39 (28%), , 55 (14%). @ : 54% , 22% ( 31% ).
, , @ 90@ , .. @ . (, 1998 @ 48% , N=1500 ; 1998@ 58%, 1999@ 62%, 2000@ 37%,N=1600 .) @ , .
14. .
( 2005 , N=1600 , % , )
100 69 29 39 12
, 6 8 3 8 14 , 83 80 88 80 66
, 18 20 13 49 49 , 21 18 29 35 32
15. ,
. . , ?
( 2005 , N=1600 , % , )
100 69 29 39
, 64 57 79 53 , , , 11 13 7 12 , , , 10 12 7 13 , 6 9 2 11 9 10 6 10
@ , , @ , . 15
-
, . 31% @, , 55% @ (, N=1600 ).
. 2004 (N=1600 ) 64% - . ( : 7% @ ) 51% ( 7%) , @ .
.
16. 2008 . .
2008 ?
( 2005 , N=1600 , % , )
100 69 29 39 12
, . 27 37 6 43 56 24 13 48 12 10 35 35 33 31 22
@, @ , ( ) .
17. .
. .
2008 ,
( 2005 , N=1600 , % , )
100 69 29 39
, 9 12 2 15 37 49 11 53 > 29 25 37 22 13 6 27 4 , 5 1 13 1 8 7 11 5
, ( ). @, @ ( , ).
I.
160
: - .
-
:
161
() . , , . () , @ (, ), @ @ . () @ . , , @ . @ @ ( ) @ , @ . , , , @ . @ , , ( @ ).
, @ . . @ @ @ , , , , , @ . , , , @ , @ . , ( ), , @, , . @ , @ , , . @ @ @, , , @
-
, . , , . @ .
I.
-
:
163
:
( @) . , @ , @ @ . @ @ ( @, , @, . ), @. @ (@) , ( ) .
@ , . , , , @ @ , .
, @ , , ( , , , , ..; @) , @, @ . @ , , @, , . @ ( @ ) @ . , . () @ : ()
-
. , , , , @ . @ , .
, . , , @ , , @ . @@ , .
@ ( @) , @ , , , @ . @ @ .
@ , @ , , @ . @ , . @, , , , , , @, .. @ .
, , ,@, . @ . , , , , @, . @, , , XIX , .
I.
164
-
:
165
@ @, (@) , (.. IX XX ). (.. )
, , . @ 1.
, , , , @, @, @ @, , , @ . @ , , , ,, . , .
5080@ @ , @
() . ( ) , , . . @, , . @@ . ,, @ @ @. @, , , 2.
, @ , , . , . @ 3. @ @ , @
1.: . > . ., 2003.
2 . , , > , > , > > (> > : > // . 2005. 4).
3.: . > . .,2004.
-
. , , @ , , , @ . ( @ @, ..) , , . I (.. @ @ ), - (.. @ ), I , , -: , @ . ( ), @ (, , , @ ; , ).
, , , , @, . @ ( , , , ) @ , . , , @ . , , @ (, , , ) , .
, , @ (, , @ , , ..) , , .
( , .. @ ) , . , ( , , ) @ () , @, , .. (, , , , @ , @, , @@
I.
166
-
:
167
, , @ ..). @ , , @ , ., . , @ , , .
@ ( ) , . , @ , ; . (, 2005 66% 21% , , 24% @ , 16% , 45% , [N=1600 @]. , @ .)
1. ?
( 2005 , N=1600 , %
)
, ,
, 1824 36 9 482539 29 9 504054 22 14 3655 16 29 39
8 36 33 34 10 46 61 0 28 37 0 50 21 15 46 20 23 49
@ , , @ .
, , @@, @ @, .
@ @ @ , ,
-
. , , . @ 30@ @ @ . @@ @. @ @, .. @ , ( , , ), @ . @ @, , ( , ) . @ ( @ , @ , @ @ , @ .) , .
( @ ), @ , , .. @ @ , @ , , , . , . @ , : , @ ( , ) @ .
, @ 2005 , @ .
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