저성장 고령화 시대의 재정건전성 해외 선진국 재정위기와 그 시사점 건전재정포럼_창립식_20120926

• 1. 15:30~16:00 1 : * : 16:00~16:10 : 16:10~16:20 : 16:20~16:30 : ( )16:30~16:40 ( ) ( )..16:40~16:45 : KPMG ( )16:55~17:00 : 17:00~17:20 -1: 17:20~17:40 -2: : 17:40~18:00 ( i MBC ) 2 : ...3 : (20 )

2. Contents . ................................................................................. 211. ( ) .................................. 232. : ( ) ........ 55. ....................................................................... 75 .................................................................................. 79 ( iMBC ) ...................................................... 81 ........................................................................................... 84.... ................................................................................... 87 3. . , . . , , 100 . .2012 9 1 4. 1. () . . . , , , , , , , , , , , , ,, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . . .2. ( ) . . 3 5. . EU . 1980 ,, , . , . . , .3. ( ) 3 , 30 . . . . 1960 . . 3, 4 . . . .1980 Zero Base , . 1997 , 4 6. . (taboo). , .4. ( ) , . . . . , . . . (Last Resort) . . , . .5 7. 5. ( ) . . , , 100 . 3 , . , , . 30 , . , .6. ( ) . . , . .6 8. . , . . . , ? , ? . . ? ? ? ? .7. , . , , ..7 9. 1 , ? . . 3 , , . . , . 98, 2008 . , .2 , .9 10. 60 .60 70 .* () : (62) 30.3% (78) 83.5%80 . , 82 21% 95 9% , .2000 , .* 00~07 1.0% , 020307 2008 OECD . , . , . , 3 . 60 , , . .10 11. 3 , . . , . . , R&D . . , . , , ., . , . . , .4 !11 12. . 90 2008 .* (%): (90) 46.3(96) 73.2(07) 40.2(11) 37.4 .* (%): (85) 46.7(96) 101.6(07) 105.4 (11) 160.8 . . , , . , ..12 13. 1. . , . . , , . .2. 1~2% . , . .3. , . IMF . . , . , 13 14. .4. , . . . . , . .5. , . , . . , . , , S&P .14 15. .6. ! ! ! . . , , , , , , , , 7. () , , , (podcast: ,Mobile ), 100 .8. , , ( ) ..15 16. ( ) (43)1) , 2) , 3) , 4) , 5) , 6) , 7) , 8) , 9) , 10) , 11) , 12) , 13) , FG Investment Korea 14) 15) , 16) , 17) , 18) , 19) 20) 21) , () 22) , 23) , 24) , KPMG 25) , 26) , 27) , KT 28) , ()29) , 17 17. 30) 31) 32) , 33) , 34) , 35) 36) 37) , 38) , () 39) , KPMG 40) 41) , 42) , 43) , (23)1) iMBC , 2) 3) 4) , 5) , 6) 7) 8) YTN , 9) 10) 11) , FN 12) , 13) , 14) , 15) , 16) , 18 18. 17) , 18) 19) , 20) 21) 22) , () 23) (50)1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) 10) 11) 12) 13) 14) 15) 16) 17) 18) 19) 20) 21) 22) 23) 19 19. 24) 25) 26) 27) 28) 29) 30) 31) 32) 33) 34) 35) 36) 37) 38) 39) 40) 41) 42) 43) 44) 45) 46) 47) 48) 49) 50) (2)1) 2) DTR [ : 118, 2012.9.26 ]20 20. . 21. . .1. ' 22. - 27 - , , 3.5% () . . (entitlement) . . , . 1990 . . 2050 OECD 30% 128136% 4050 . 2050 GDP 128136% . 2010 OECD 98% 3134% . 2010 15.2 25 23. 2050 2060 71 80.6 . . (1) : . . . . . (2) : . Kaufman and Stallings(1991) , , , , . . (entitlement) . . . . - 28 -26 24. 1990 (BEA) , PAYGO 1992 . 1990 . 2002 PAYGO 2008 , 2010 2 PAYGO . 2011 2~3% . . . , . .50 (3) : 5 . 50 . (, ), ( ), . 5 . . 2013 . 5 - 29 -27 25. . . . . .- 30 -28 26. 2012. 9. 26 0. 3.5% 2011 3.6% 2.5% , 8.5 4.6 , 2009 IMF 49 PV: (GDP 14%), (GDP 683%) 229 27. 0. 10 1. ?2. ?3. ! ?4. ?5. ?6. ?7. ?8. ?9. ?10. ?31. ?430 28. 1. ?- (1971~2011)y = -0.1819x + 11.12720.015.010.05.00.0-5.0 1971 0.18%p 10 70 3 80 10% , 6.1%, 4.1% 10 , 2002~06 4.7%, 2007~113.5% 5-10.0197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011 8.9%(71~81)10%(82~91)6.1%(92~01)4.1%(02~11)1. ?- (1961~2011)y = -0.2x + 9.176915.010.05.00.0-5.0 0.2%p 10 1961~71 9.3% , 4.5%,4.6%, 0.8%, 0.7% 70 2002~06 1.5%, 2007~11 -0.1% 6-10.019611963196519671969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011 9.3%(61~70)4.5%(71~81)4.6%(82~91)0.8%(92~01)0.7%(02~11)31 29. 1. ?-1980, 1990, 2000 12.010.08.06.04.02.0 30 , , , , , , , , , , , 90 80 2000 2000 , , 70.080 90 002. ?832 30. 2. ?- (2011.12), 600000005000000040000000300000002000000010000000 2012 5 2030 5,216 2060 4,385 (831 ) 2016 , 65 2048 901960196319661969197219751978198119841987199019931996199920022005200820112014201720202023202620292032203520382041204420472050205320562059 2. ?- 65 (%), 454035302520151052060: 40.1%2050: 37.4% 65 2000 7.2% ,2017 14% , 2026 20.8% 2037 30.1%, 2060 40.1% 2050 17% 10019601965197019751980198519901995200020052010201520202025203020352040204520502055206033 31. 2. ?Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population DivisionWorld Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume II: Demographic Profiles UN DESA(UN ) 2050 (coffin shape) , 2100 (bell shape) 11 3. ! ?1234 32. 3. ?- 1970 2040 2100 21 133. ?- 15 (%): UN DESA 15 2100 15 2010 1435 33. 3. ?- 65 (%) UN DESA 64 2100 ( ) 2050 2100 154. ?1636 34. 4. ?- 1.61.41.210.80.60.40.2 1997 2005 1.076 2011 1.244 171.521.448 1.411.4671.2971.166 1.18 1.1541.0761.1231.251.1921.1491.226 1.24401997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020114. ?- OECD , OECD family DB(2010.5.25) 2010 42 1970 1995 1.5 2010 1837 35. 4. ?- ( 1,000, )199.598.587.576.562010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2010 1,000 9.4 2041 6.3 , 2049 6.4, 20536.5 5. ?2038 36. 5. ?- 21 , , 5. ? 2005 Goldman Sachs 2007 , 2015 20501% ( ) 2005 GS G-7, BRICs, N-11 22 2050 GDP 13, 1 GDP 2 2011 12 7 GS 2030 0.2~0.3%p G-7, BRICs, N-11 22 2050 GDP 20, 1 GDP 7 2220072006-20152015-20202020-20252025-20302030-20352035-20402040-20452045-2050 4.2 3.0 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.820111980-19891990-19992000-20092010-20192020-20292030-20392040-2050 8.6 6.7 4.4 3.4 2.2 1.7 1.539 37. 5. ? NABO(2012) GS(2011)0.2~0.5%p 2050 1.5% 2060 1% 232016-20202021-20252026-20302031-20352036-20402041-20452046-20502051-20552056-2060 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.96. ?2440 38. 6. ? IMF(2009) 2008 /( + ) G-20 5% , 2% GDP G-20 GDP 28% GDP 409% ( ) GDP 14%, GDP 683% G-20 G-20 256. ?- IMF(2009)2641 39. 6. ?- (2012.9.20) 2050 128.2% 153.9~165.4% , 33.3~35.1% , 2009 GDP 9.6% (SOCX) 2050 GDP 22.6~24.5% OECD 24.6% 276. ?- (2012.6.25)28 NABO 2050 136.3%, 2060 218.6% 2050~60 10 NABO 2040 2050 GDP10.67%, 2060 13.30% 42 40. 7. ?297. ? NABO(2012) Bohn(QJE, 1998) Blanchard et al.(OECD ES, 1990) Bohn Test 2033 2034 Bohn /GDP /GDP + - Blanchard et al. Test (1) 2029 , (5) 2034 /GDP /GDP + , - 2030 3043 41. 8. ?318. ?- GDP 3235.030.025.020.015.010.05.00.0198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012 G7 GDP 2007 OECD 19.2%, 7.6%, 2012 OECD 22.1%, 9.7% ( 40% 44% )44 42. 8. ?- vs (1991-2007 , 2000 )14.012.010.08.06.04.02.0 1991-2007 OECD 28 , , , , OECD , 33 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.08. ?- /GDP vs (1991-2007 )34 35.030.025.020.015.010.05.00.00.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 1991~2007 /GDP 45 43. 8. ?- /GDP vs (1991-2007)35 10.08.06.04.02.00.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.00.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 GDP 8. ?- : GDP , 1991-2007140.0120.0100.080.060.040.020.00.0-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0-20.0-40.0 1991-2007 , , , , , 36 -60.046 44. 8. ?- (GDP , 1991-2007)10.08.06.04.02.00.0-10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0-2.0-4.0-6.0 (2002-2007 ) , , , , , , , 37-8.0() 9. ?3847 45. 9. ? 1970 ( -30), 1994 ( -23),2005 ( -21) Lincoln(2005) 1990 , , 1989 GDP 30% 2002 38% 1990 GDP 6.5% 1996 8.3% 399. ?4048 46. 9. ?- 2005 50.040.030.020.010.00.0-10.0 OECD EO 91(2012.5) 2005~08 8% 2011 2013 10% 2010GDP 0.6% 2013 1.4% 41-20.0198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 9. ?- (GDP, %)250.0200.0150.0100.050.00.0 2010 2010 GDP 192.7% 2012 214.1%, 2013 222.6% 1977 , 1977 2009 GDP 100% 2013 142.7% 42-50.01970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012 49 47. 9. ? Kabe(2005) 2000 2010 2006 2002 2006 2007 Kabe(2005) 2006~08 2009 2000 2001 2009 , 4310. ?4450 48. 10. ? , Reinhart and Rogoff(2010) 3% , 4510. ? , , 1. vs , 4651 49. 10. ?2. . . entitlement() Kaufman and Stallings(1991) , , , , 4710. ? (1990) PAYGO 1992 1990 2002 PAYGO 2008 2010 2 PAYGO 2011 2~3% , 2013 4852 50. 10. ?3. 50 5 5 (, ) ( ), 4910. ? 5053 51. . .2. : 52. - 35 - . 1(20102)- 10% - ( ) 2(20103)- 30% - 12% - 7% - (4.5%5%; 9%10%; 19%21%)- 15% - 1030% 3(20105)- 8% , 3% - (2,000) 3,000 - (13, 14) 500 3,000 - (13, 14) 800 2,500 (13, 14) - - - - 10% - - (5%5.5%; 10%11%; 21%23%)- 10% (sin tax) - - - - 61 65 - 6,000 2,000 - 1,000 400 57 53. 4(20116)- 500 - 8,000 - 12,000 - - 2% - 6%14% 4%10% - - (2011 8 11) 320 5(20122)- 750 22% - (13, 14) - 2012 3 - - - - , , - 150 2009 10% 2010 5 5% (2010 8.71%, 2011 5.47%, 2012 8.15%, 2013 4.39%). 1970 2002 (1%) 2000 8% . , 300 4 3,800( 3,159, 263) 3,117( 2,428, 202) . ( ) 2010 27.7% 2011 33% - 36 -(EU 23.4%). Joseph Stiglitz , (, , ) , .58 54. EU 2030 60% 2020 , .- GDP 15% ; - GDP 15%10%; - GDP 10%5%; , , , , , - 37 -, , - GDP 5% ; , , , , - GDP 0% ; , , 1990 .- (40% ) , , , , , , .- , (pre-budget) .- .- , , . . , .- .59 55. - -2012. 9. 24. Contents. 1. 2. . 1. 2. 3. . 1. 2. 260 56. . 1. ( , , ) (, , ) , , GDP (, , , ) : %: McKinsey Global Institute, Debt and Deleveraging: Uneven Progress on the Path to Growth, 2012. 1. 461 57. 1. 20032010 , , , GDP , , , , , , , -12.4-232.6-179.6-697.0-63.2-146.4-40.7-348.8-296.9-163.731.045.548.51,157.4304.5178.523.0265.1 (20042010) 5: OECD, last updated 16 December 2011 (10) GDP 1. , 2000 OECD 6: OECD, Wikipedia, "European sovereign-debt crisis"62 58. 2. 2000 2007 , 4.2% . , . 7: OECD GDP 2000 , , : % 2. 1970 . (Kathimerini) , 1974 : OECD GDP , , : % 863 59. 2. 2009 , .: OECD, Eurostat GDP : % 9 2. (budget compliance) , () (budgetcompliance) 10: European Commission, "Report on Greek Government Deficit and Debt Statistics," January 2010.64 60. 2. (Eurostat) , 2010 1 statistical weaknesses 11: European Commission, "Report on Greek Government Deficit and Debt Statistics," January 2010. . . . , , . . . .385 (extra-budgetary funds) . EU . . 65 61. 1. 2009 2010 4 2010 5 1,100 EU 2010 40% 2011 10 1,300 2 53.5% 2012 6 ( 2015 2017 )GDP 2012 198% , , 160% , 2020 120.5% 13 2. 2010 300 , 2009 GDP 13% 2011 2010 GDP 5%, 2012 2011 GDP 4% 2009 10% 2010 5 5% 1970 2002(1%) 2000 8% Joseph Stiglitz , (, , ) , 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013GDP(%)GDP(10)(10)(%): OECD, Eurostat (20102015)44.9 47.6 50.6 53.8 50.2 50.1 48.5 46.6203.5 202.6208.9 222.8 232.9 231.6 227.3 215.193.8 106.1 117.8 124.6 114.1 107.8 98.7 94.47.7 12.3 11.7 6.8 10.5 6.3 9.1 4.3-8.94 -13.11 -11.03 -5.77 (8.43) (5.52) (8.44) (4.36) 1466 62. 2. 1(2010 2) 10% ( ) 2(2010 3) 30% 12% 7% * (4.5%5%; 9%10%; 19%21%) 15% 1030% 15: Wikipedia, Greek government-debt crisis" 2. 3(2010 5) 8% , 3% * (2,000) 3,000 * (13, 14) 500 3,000 (13, 14) 800 2,500 (13, 14) 10% (5%5.5%; 10%11%; 21%23%) 10% (sin tax) 61 65 6,000 2,000 1,000 400 16: Wikipedia, Greek government-debt crisis" 67 63. 2. 4(2011 6) 500 8,000 12,000 2% 6%14% 4%10% (2011 8 11) 320 5(2012 2) 750 22% (13, 14) *2012 3 , , 150 17: Wikipedia, Greek government-debt crisis" 3. ? A300 10 B10 , , , , , . 1868 64. 3. A 3,800( 3,364) 2,950(2,666) B 7,000( 5,531) 4,882(4,248) A B A B38,000,000 70,000,000 29,505,000 48,825,000 2,375,000 4,375,000 2,208,750 4,068,750 7% 9,500,000 17,500,000 3,000,000 0 1,200,000 3,600,000 1,200,000 3,600,000 , 36,800,000 66,400,000 28,305,000 45,225,00021,930,000 23,820,000 20,175,600 21,914,400 8% 14,870,000 42,580,000 8,129,400 23,310,6001,265,550 5,837,700 536,340 2,658,250 ( ) 3,093,181 8,847,965 2,304,005 3,681,291 33,641,269 55,314,335 26,664,655 42,485,459(A)(B)(C=A-B)(D)(E=B-D)(F)(G)(H=A-F-G) 19 3. 2011 33% 2010 27.7% 750(112 5,000) 585(87 7,500)EU 23.4% 2012 2 5 2069 65. . 1. EU EU 2030 60% 2020 , .15% 15%10% 10%5% 5% 0% , , ,, ,, ,, , , , , , 2270 66. 1. 1990 : OECD Economic Outlook 83 database 23 1. , , (40% ) , (pre-budget) , , , , , , , , 2471 67. 1. : Andersen, Troben M., et.al, The Nordic Model: Embracing globalization and sharing risks, 2007. 25 2. . 2672 68. 2. , 27 2. , , , , , , 2873 69. 2. (market mechanism)? 10 () , 2974 70. . 71. 1. 2. ( iMBC )- 40 -3. 77 72. - 42 - - 1 , - - - - : - , - : 2012 90.3 44.2(49%) - --- - : ( , ) , , , 4 : - 774 324 , GDP 60% 79 73. - - : 445 GDP 34% (OECD 102%) --- , GDP 60% - 43 - - - - - 80 74. - 44 - - 2 ( iMBC ) . ? 1 . , . . , , . . , . . . 81 75. . . . 1. , , Q & A , SNS , - 45 -.2. .1) 2) Zero BaseBudgeting System(ZBBS) . 15 . ZBBS 82 76. . , 5 .3) - - - 46 - .- .- , 83 77. - 47 --3 1) , 2) ,3), 4) 4 1,4 GDP 33.4% 445, 20, 4 (22) 100%, 228%, 120% 90% 100, GDP 10%, 200 . 96 8%, 98 16%, 2008 30.1%, 2011 33.4% ++ . . , 127+ 288+ 445 = 860, 2 . . , 0~2 1: 84 78. - - 48 - ,- ... IMF . . , Capital flight - 50%, 4.5%23%- , , . , - ... (1938 ), -(1951 , , ),- . 97 , 2008 , 2: - 2% +- .- , 2060 10 8 ( 1.6)- .- 1930 , - 2050 128%- 2100 , - .- 0-2 , , 85 79. . 80. [ ]- - Hanover College (Indiana) B.A. ()- Vanderbilt University, M.A. ()- Vanderbilt University, Ph.D. ()[ ]- (2002~2004)- (1998~2004)- (1997~1999)- (1997~1998)- () (1996~2002)- , , (1994~2001)- (1993~1994) [ ]- - ( )- University of Wisconsin~Madison ( )[ ]- (1995~2006, 2009~)- (2006~2009)- KDI (1991~1995)- Iowa State University () (1988~1991)89 81. [ ]- , - , - , [ ]- Maryland (2004)- 3 (1998~1998)- (1994~1998)- York, (1992~1993)- (1987~) [ ]- - University of Missouri [ ]- Northeast Asia Professors Association (2010~2010)- (2007~)- (2006~2008)- (2005~2007)- / (2005~)- Asia~Pacific Economic Association (2004~)- (2003~2007)90 82. [ ]- ()- (AMP)- - ( )- (SPARC)[ ]- (2009~)- , (2006~2010)- iMBC/MBC (2002~2005)- MBC, , (1996~2001)- , [ ]- [ ]- (2011~ )- (2010~)- (2006~2010)- (2004~2006)- () (2002~2004)- 2, (2000~2002)- (1983~2000)- (1981~1983)91