Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.
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Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14rd - 15th May 2007, Copenhagen
How to investigate emerging issuesfor future research planning?
Dr Simon GardnerSKEP Network Co-ordinator
simon.gardner@environment-agency.gov.uk
Julien VertFuture studies and public participation
julien.vert@ecologie.gouv.fr
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The SKEP ERA-NET
27 consortium members from 18 European countries funding environmental research to support
environmental protection regulation and policy
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SKEP Work Packages
WP 2: Exchange of research programme information (EA)
WP 3: Best practice in researchmanagement (FiMoE, SYKE)*
WP 4: Dissemination and implementation of research (SwEPA)*
WP 6: Investigate emerging issues forfuture research planning (MEDD, ADEME)
WP
5: Plan and develop collaborative
work areas (IE
PA
)
WP
1: ER
A-N
ET
managem
ent and co-ordination (E
A)
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Work Package 2‘Exchange of research information’
• To provide access to all participant’s environmental research programmes, strategies and schedules in order to facilitate knowledge-sharing and co-
operation in research projects in the future
• To develop a strategic overview of participant’s current research, identifying areas of duplication, gaps and priority topics
• To identify research areas for future collaboration for network members
Objectives:
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The SKEP research database - a project
level resource for scientists and policy-makers
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A DPSIR-orientated research classification
framework
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Ability to search by environmental issue or legislative driver
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Key. Points which lie inside of the red circle illustrate topics where the priority of the issue is not matched by spend. They are therefore
potential cases for increased spending, and/or a research call.
The more points there are inside the Bull's Eye, the greater the consensus for a call.
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Theme maps of research expertise
Topic maps to link environmental research
Identifying gaps and overlaps on activities via Heat maps
Knowledge management toolsto support SKEP WP2: Phase 2
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Areas of intense activityAreas oflimited activity
Heat map of SKEP network research activities
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Galaxy view of SKEP research topics
Climate Change
Sustainable Development
Habitats and ecosystems
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Topic map of the SKEP research network
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Work Package 6‘Investigate emerging issues for future research planning
• To investigate current methods for future planning or ‘horizon scanning’ for research areas
• To proactively investigate one emerging issue for horizon-scanning, identify the policy and operational
questions we need to address to tackle the information needs of policy-makers and other
stakeholders
Objectives:
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• Workshop in Paris in June 2006 (best practices)
• Focus on the convergence between nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive sciences (NBIC)
• European foresight workshop in preparation (1st semester 2008)
• Upstream: literature review, identification of experts and stakeholders, elaboration of a questionnaire, horizon scanning
SKEP work package 6‘Investigating emerging issues for environmental policy’
Impacts on regulators
Emerging(GRIN) technologies
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• Forecasting based on modelisation and past trendse.g. demography, economic forecasting
• Foresightpresented by Simon, broadly used in the UK and northern EuropeIn France : Agora 2020 and at a smaller scale SKEP WP6
• Prospective- pluridisciplinary approach of systemic inspiration- builds coherent images of plausible futures (scenarios)- integrates the long-term dimensions of the system- considers breakthroughs and breakdowns- a tool for decision-makers in uncertain and/or complex situations
Three ways to investigate the future:
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Stages in a prospective exercise
1. Definition of the problem and time horizon;
2. Description of the system, construction of the ‘base’ and identification of key variables;
3. Main hypotheses and first draft of scenarios;
4. Coherence tests and finalisation
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Choosing a perimeter and an horizon
- No secret recipe, trade-off between exhaustiveness and feasibility
- Need to properly state the problem and to map out the terrain
- Time horizon depending on inertia and rigidity of the system, schedule of decisions to be made and expertise available
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Representation of the system and construction of the ‘base’
Base: analysis of the current situation and its long-term drivers
Identification of key variables, main actors (and their mutual interactions)
Documentation and choice of indicators
A wide range of tools: interviews of experts and stakeholders, cross impact matrix, pluridisciplinary working committee, surveys, models, …
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Drafting hypotheses and constructing scenarios (1/2)
Heavy trends: variables of great inertia (e.g. the ageing of population)
Weak signal: symptom of an emerging trend, first clue of a new and crucial development
Critical uncertainty: variable of great impact but uncertain evolution
Critical uncertainties and weak signals are the germs of scenarios
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Var.1
Var.2
Var.3
Hypothesis 1
Hypothesis 1
Hypothesis 1
Hypothesis 3
Hypothesis 2
Hypothesis 2
Hypothesis 3
Hypothesis 2
Scenario AScenario B
Selection of a small number of
combinations that are not obviously
incoherent and highlight a good
spectrum of possible futures
Drafting hypotheses and constructing scenarios 2/2
For each variable : description of past development and current trend, and a couple of contrasted hypotheses for future development.
Construction of scenarios by combinations of these hypotheses
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Coherence tests and finalisation
Redaction of the scenarios: image of the future and the path leading to it
Coherence tests: validation by experts, coherence between base, path and snapshot of the future, quantification of key indicators…
Finalisation of scenarios: homogeneity, illustrations and examples
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Horizon-scanning activities within SKEP network organisations
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Environment Agency Horizon-scanning activities
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How does the Agency define Horizon Scanning?
As the identification of new science, technology or social trends that are at the margins of current thinking…..
…but which could change the effectiveness of Environment Agency policies, processes or activities in the future
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A methodological empasis on ‘What is’ not ‘What if’
Directed towards Foresight activities, not scenario-setting
Assumption-free approach in order to detect ‘weak signals’
Scanning what is on the horizon for evidence of what is coming over the horizon
Delivering science fact for evidence-based decision-making
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MethodologyScanning - to identify new science...
Evidence-building - An innovative horizon-scanning database (HSdBi)
Analysis - interpreting the evidence
Communication - alerting and informing environmental policy-makers
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Horizon-scanning heat map generatedfrom the EA HSdBi
Timeslicer software
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Scanning informationFor stages of science and technology...
Idea - may or may not go further
Research - exploration
Development - commercial backing
Dissemination - confident conclusions
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AnalysisOf different horizon scales...
Far out - conceptually possible, non-existent
New to world - proven in potential, not in practice
New to Agency - in practice, no Agency position
Improvements - new findings on existing science
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plant adaptation gene
Far out
New to world
New to Agency
Improvements
Far out 2015+
Results:: a few examples ::
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Far out
New to world
New to Agency
Improvements
:: a few examples ::
New to world 2008-2015
enzymatic C capture
Results
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drought is normal
Far out
New to world
New to Agency
Improvements
New to Agency now-2010
Results:: a few examples ::
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air quality v climate change
Far out
New to world
New to Agency
Improvements
Improvements now
Results:: a few examples ::
Nano-farming
Synthetic genomics
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MEDD Foresight activities
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Example : Agriculture 2025
- Analysis of the system by a team of consultants (AsCA)
- Scenarios built by a panel of experts and stakeholders
- Four contrasted scenarios for French agriculture in the next 20 years:
- Agro efficiency- Dual agriculture- Regionalisation- High environmental quality agriculture
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Maps of main agricultural productions in France in 2025 for two different scenarios
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