Top Banner
www.skep-era.net [email protected] Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15 th May 2007, Copenhagen How to investigate emerging issues for future research planning? Dr Simon Gardner SKEP Network Co-ordinator [email protected] Julien Vert Future studies and public participati [email protected]
36

Www.skep-era.net [email protected] Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

Jan 17, 2016

Download

Documents

Abigayle Carson
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14rd - 15th May 2007, Copenhagen

How to investigate emerging issuesfor future research planning?

Dr Simon GardnerSKEP Network Co-ordinator

[email protected]

Julien VertFuture studies and public participation

[email protected]

Page 2: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

The SKEP ERA-NET

27 consortium members from 18 European countries funding environmental research to support

environmental protection regulation and policy

Page 3: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

SKEP Work Packages

WP 2: Exchange of research programme information (EA)

WP 3: Best practice in researchmanagement (FiMoE, SYKE)*

WP 4: Dissemination and implementation of research (SwEPA)*

WP 6: Investigate emerging issues forfuture research planning (MEDD, ADEME)

WP

5: Plan and develop collaborative

work areas (IE

PA

)

WP

1: ER

A-N

ET

managem

ent and co-ordination (E

A)

Page 4: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Work Package 2‘Exchange of research information’

• To provide access to all participant’s environmental research programmes, strategies and schedules in order to facilitate knowledge-sharing and co-

operation in research projects in the future

• To develop a strategic overview of participant’s current research, identifying areas of duplication, gaps and priority topics

• To identify research areas for future collaboration for network members

Objectives:

Page 5: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

The SKEP research database - a project

level resource for scientists and policy-makers

Page 6: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

A DPSIR-orientated research classification

framework

Page 7: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Ability to search by environmental issue or legislative driver

Page 8: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Key. Points which lie inside of the red circle illustrate topics where the priority of the issue is not matched by spend. They are therefore

potential cases for increased spending, and/or a research call.

The more points there are inside the Bull's Eye, the greater the consensus for a call.

Page 9: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Theme maps of research expertise

Topic maps to link environmental research

Identifying gaps and overlaps on activities via Heat maps

Knowledge management toolsto support SKEP WP2: Phase 2

Page 10: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Areas of intense activityAreas oflimited activity

Heat map of SKEP network research activities

Page 11: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Galaxy view of SKEP research topics

Climate Change

Sustainable Development

Habitats and ecosystems

Page 12: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Topic map of the SKEP research network

Page 13: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Work Package 6‘Investigate emerging issues for future research planning

• To investigate current methods for future planning or ‘horizon scanning’ for research areas

• To proactively investigate one emerging issue for horizon-scanning, identify the policy and operational

questions we need to address to tackle the information needs of policy-makers and other

stakeholders

Objectives:

Page 14: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

• Workshop in Paris in June 2006 (best practices)

• Focus on the convergence between nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive sciences (NBIC)

• European foresight workshop in preparation (1st semester 2008)

• Upstream: literature review, identification of experts and stakeholders, elaboration of a questionnaire, horizon scanning

SKEP work package 6‘Investigating emerging issues for environmental policy’

Impacts on regulators

Emerging(GRIN) technologies

Page 15: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

• Forecasting based on modelisation and past trendse.g. demography, economic forecasting

• Foresightpresented by Simon, broadly used in the UK and northern EuropeIn France : Agora 2020 and at a smaller scale SKEP WP6

• Prospective- pluridisciplinary approach of systemic inspiration- builds coherent images of plausible futures (scenarios)- integrates the long-term dimensions of the system- considers breakthroughs and breakdowns- a tool for decision-makers in uncertain and/or complex situations

Three ways to investigate the future:

Page 16: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Stages in a prospective exercise

1. Definition of the problem and time horizon;

2. Description of the system, construction of the ‘base’ and identification of key variables;

3. Main hypotheses and first draft of scenarios;

4. Coherence tests and finalisation

Page 17: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Choosing a perimeter and an horizon

- No secret recipe, trade-off between exhaustiveness and feasibility

- Need to properly state the problem and to map out the terrain

- Time horizon depending on inertia and rigidity of the system, schedule of decisions to be made and expertise available

Page 18: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Representation of the system and construction of the ‘base’

Base: analysis of the current situation and its long-term drivers

Identification of key variables, main actors (and their mutual interactions)

Documentation and choice of indicators

A wide range of tools: interviews of experts and stakeholders, cross impact matrix, pluridisciplinary working committee, surveys, models, …

Page 19: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Drafting hypotheses and constructing scenarios (1/2)

Heavy trends: variables of great inertia (e.g. the ageing of population)

Weak signal: symptom of an emerging trend, first clue of a new and crucial development

Critical uncertainty: variable of great impact but uncertain evolution

Critical uncertainties and weak signals are the germs of scenarios

Page 20: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Var.1

Var.2

Var.3

Hypothesis 1

Hypothesis 1

Hypothesis 1

Hypothesis 3

Hypothesis 2

Hypothesis 2

Hypothesis 3

Hypothesis 2

Scenario AScenario B

Selection of a small number of

combinations that are not obviously

incoherent and highlight a good

spectrum of possible futures

Drafting hypotheses and constructing scenarios 2/2

For each variable : description of past development and current trend, and a couple of contrasted hypotheses for future development.

Construction of scenarios by combinations of these hypotheses

Page 21: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Coherence tests and finalisation

Redaction of the scenarios: image of the future and the path leading to it

Coherence tests: validation by experts, coherence between base, path and snapshot of the future, quantification of key indicators…

Finalisation of scenarios: homogeneity, illustrations and examples

Page 22: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Horizon-scanning activities within SKEP network organisations

Page 23: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Environment Agency Horizon-scanning activities

Page 24: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

How does the Agency define Horizon Scanning?

As the identification of new science, technology or social trends that are at the margins of current thinking…..

…but which could change the effectiveness of Environment Agency policies, processes or activities in the future

Page 25: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

A methodological empasis on ‘What is’ not ‘What if’

Directed towards Foresight activities, not scenario-setting

Assumption-free approach in order to detect ‘weak signals’

Scanning what is on the horizon for evidence of what is coming over the horizon

Delivering science fact for evidence-based decision-making

Page 26: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

MethodologyScanning - to identify new science...

Evidence-building - An innovative horizon-scanning database (HSdBi)

Analysis - interpreting the evidence

Communication - alerting and informing environmental policy-makers

Page 27: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Horizon-scanning heat map generatedfrom the EA HSdBi

Timeslicer software

Page 28: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Scanning informationFor stages of science and technology...

Idea - may or may not go further

Research - exploration

Development - commercial backing

Dissemination - confident conclusions

Page 29: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

AnalysisOf different horizon scales...

Far out - conceptually possible, non-existent

New to world - proven in potential, not in practice

New to Agency - in practice, no Agency position

Improvements - new findings on existing science

Page 30: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

plant adaptation gene

Far out

New to world

New to Agency

Improvements

Far out 2015+

Results:: a few examples ::

Page 31: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Far out

New to world

New to Agency

Improvements

:: a few examples ::

New to world 2008-2015

enzymatic C capture

Results

Page 32: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

drought is normal

Far out

New to world

New to Agency

Improvements

New to Agency now-2010

Results:: a few examples ::

Page 33: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

air quality v climate change

Far out

New to world

New to Agency

Improvements

Improvements now

Results:: a few examples ::

Nano-farming

Synthetic genomics

Page 34: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

MEDD Foresight activities

Page 35: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Example : Agriculture 2025

- Analysis of the system by a team of consultants (AsCA)

- Scenarios built by a panel of experts and stakeholders

- Four contrasted scenarios for French agriculture in the next 20 years:

- Agro efficiency- Dual agriculture- Regionalisation- High environmental quality agriculture

Page 36: Www.skep-era.net skep@environment-agency.gov.uk Reseach foresight for environment and sustainability - workshop on mega-trends and surprises, 14 rd - 15.

[email protected]

Maps of main agricultural productions in France in 2025 for two different scenarios