World War One A Fatal Crisis. Why did Russia become involved?

World War One

A Fatal Crisis

Why did Russia become involved?

Theories

• Socialist View– Economic pressures / Commitments to capitalist

nations

• Romantic View– Selfless moral commitment

• Serbia – Orthodox Commitment• France – Treaty Commitment

• Realistic View– Self-Interest– Russland Politik

• Aware of German expansionist designs• Could not sit and wait for defeat of France

The German Plan

• The Schlieffen Plan– Made war more likely

• Germany had to defeat France before it could engage with the huge Russia

– Mobilisation times• German Army

– 15 days

• Russian Army– 105 days

– Therefore, Germany had a tight timetable of 90 days to knock France out of the war!

The Allied Plan

• Strategic Concerns– Russia wanted to invade Austria

• Relieve Orthodox Serbs• Easier target to deal with• Closer to Constantinople

– France wanted Russia to invade Germany• Relieve pressure on French Army• Russia has land border with Germany• Threaten Berlin

• Plan XVII– Worst of all strategic plans

• A Compromise:– Russia would attack Germany and Austria at the same

time

Was Russia Prepared for War?

Was Russia Prepared for War?

• Yes for a Short War– 1.4 million soldiers– 5 million reservists– 1000 rounds per artillery piece– Courage/endurance– Recent combat experience

• But, what does a long, modern, industrial and attritional war require?

Was Russia Prepared for War?

• No, for a long War– Not prepared for a long drawn out modern

industrial and attritional war:• Transport• Logistics• Manufacturing capability• Food• Leadership

• Problems associated with most of the above factors

Problems facing the Imperial Forces

• Transport– Navy

• Wiped out in 1905

– Lack of investment in railroads• Eg Supplies had to come from Vladivostock

rather than Murmansk• Different gauge from rest of Europe

– No paved roads outside of cities– Hence 105 days required to mobilise

Problems facing the Imperial Forces

• Logistics– Hampered by

• Poor Transport• Small industrial base• Lack of standardised equipment• Lack of modern equipment• Losing large quantities of equipment to enemy

– December 1914• 6.5 million soldiers• 4.6 million rifles

– Artillery Shells• 1000 rounds per gun not enough

Problems facing the Imperial Forces

• Leadership– Dependence upon old fashioned tactics

• Bayonet charges– Motivation of troops through severe discipline and

threat of punishment– Lack of initiative from soldiers

• Peasants • Poor quality NCOs

– Also drawn from peasantry

– Leaders promoted on loyalty rather than talent• Especially since 1905• Sukhomlinov Young Turk purge 1912• Alexandra/Rasputin

• Dangers for the Tsar of Patrimonial System?

Problems facing the Imperial Forces

• Patrimonial System meant that Tsar responsible for all appointments– Therefore he will receive blame for any

failures!

• The longer the war continued, the bigger the problems facing the Imperial Army would become

“Nicholas refused to surrender the power to appoint ministers, and this for two reasons, one practical, the other theoretical or moral. He did not believe that the intellectuals likely to fill ministerial posts in a parliamentary cabinet would know how to administer the country. He also convinced himself (or perhaps was convinced by his wife) that on the day of his coronation in 1896 he had sworn to uphold autocracy. In fact, he did nothing of the kind. The coronation ceremony demanded of him only a prayer in which no reference was made to the mode of government and the word ‘autocracy’ did not even appear. But Nicholas believed otherwise and said on many occasions that giving up the authority to name the cabinet would have violated his oath of office.”Richard Pipes, The Russian Revolution, 1990

“If the war goes badly, a social revolution in its most extreme form will be unavoidable in Russia. It will begin with all strata of Society blaming the government for the reverses. Duma politicians will take advantage of the government’s predicament to incite the masses. The army’s loyalty will weaken after the loss in combat of professional officers: their replacements, freshly commissioned civilians, will have neither the authority nor the will to restrain the yearning of the peasants in uniform to head for home to take part in land seizures. In the ensuing turmoil, the opposition parties will be unable to assert power and Russia will be thrown into total anarchy, the consequences of which cannot even be foreseen.”Peter Durnovo Minister of the Interior and

director of the Police Department, 1914

1914 Campaign

• Broad front invasion– XVII compromise

• Confident expectations– Adventure

• Tsar wished to lead his army– Dissuaded by politicians

• Why did they dissuade the Tsar?

1914 Campaign• Grand Duke Nikolai Nikolaevich takes

command of Army• Uncoordinated 1914 Attack

– Invade Prussia and Austria– Amateurish

• Wireless– Germans use railroads to move forces from

Western to Eastern Front– Germans successfully ambush Russian army

at Tannenburg• 230,000 casualties

– Some success against Austrians

“The men had the faults of their race. They were lazy and happy go lucky, doing nothing thoroughly unless driven to it. The bulk of them went willingly to the war in the first instance, chiefly because they had little idea what war meant. They lacked the intelligent knowledge of the objects they were fighting for and the thinking patriotism to make their morale proof against the effects of heavy loss; and heavy loss resulted from unintelligent leading and lack of proper equipment.”Colonel Knox, British military attaché to Russia

It will be over by Christmas?

• 1.2 million casualties by December 1914– The quick war had not yet finished!– Poor start – Russian army performed poorly– But

• Did allow France and Britain to withstand Schlieffen Plan

– Trench warfare starts on Western Front• Schlieffen plan in tatters! • Germany forced to help Austria• Germany forced into a long drawn out war• Germany cannot knock out France and Britain

– Trenches, industrial nations, well lead troops– Germany turns its attention to Russia!

1915 – Things go from bad to worse

• 1915 German Lemberg Campaign– Pincer movement destroys 2 Russian armies in

Poland.• Withdraw to Riga• 13% of Empire lost to Germany• Morale collapses• Professional army destroyed

– Rely on conscripts and reservists.• Government considers evacuating St. Petersburg

• But, Russia holds on.– Russian disasters give Britain and France time to

reorganise armies and economies in West– Germans concerned at Russian willingness to lose

so many troops and so much land.

Political Impact of 1915 Defeats

• Civilians only saw defeat– Victories and defeats magnified in rear

• Recriminations– Anti-German pogroms (Tsarina included)

• Tsar’s appointed Defence Chief sacked– Sukhomlinov sacked and replaced by Young Turk

Polivanov (Duma’s preferred candidate)

• Tsar’s patrimonial system means that blame lies mainly with him

• Duma demands more powers– Coalition of Kadets, Octobrists, nationalists and

progressives– Calls for Ministry of Public Confidence– Wish to appoint more liberal ministers

“I heard that that horrid Rodzianko and others went to Goremykin to beg the Duma to at once called together - oh please don’t, it’s not their business, they want to discuss things not concerning them and bring more discontent - they must be kept away - I assure you only harm will arise - they speak too much. Russia, thank God, is not a constitutional country! though those creatures try to play a part and meddle in affairs they dare not. Do not allow them to press upon you - it’s fright if one gives in and their heads will go up.”Tsarina Alexandra to the Tsar on June 25th 1915.

The Tsar’s fateful decisions

• Things are going badly at the Front, but the Russian army is still operational and the German army is exhausted.

• Tsar does not want to repeat mistakes of 1905 – Does not want to concede any

more power to Duma

• Makes 2 fateful and ultimately disastrous decisions– What are they?

The Tsar’s fateful decisions

• The Tsar makes 2 fateful and ultimately disastrous decisions– 1) He takes personal control of the

Army– 2) He dissolves the Duma

• Why does he feel these 2 steps are necessary?

• Why did his advisers furiously try to get him to change his mind on both of these matters?

The Tsar’s fateful decisions• Why does he feel these 2

steps are necessary?– The father needs to lead

his children in their hour of need

– Fed up with public criticism of him and his generals

– He needs to see the problems at the front for himself.

– It is his duty!

• Why did his advisers furiously try to get him to change his mind on both of these matters? – Tsar unlucky– Magnifies power of

Tsarina and Rasputin– He is too far removed from

fast moving political events– All blame for any failure

will now ALL rest with the Tsar

– He alienates all sectors of society – even allies – by dissolving Conservative dominated Duma

1916 – Has Russia turned the corner?

• Polivanov’s reforms– Total War concept– Receives supplies from Allies– Huge boost in Industrial production of rifles and shells

• Brusilov Offensive– In Galicia, against the Austrians

• Austrians and Germans had assumed that Russia was exhausted.

– Italy

• Surprise attack turns into a rout of Austrian army– 300,000 killed– 15 German divisions rushed to hold the front

» Saves Somme offensive on Western Front

– But Russian Offensive does grind to a halt• Effectively knocks Austria out of the war – morale destroyed

Problems on the Home Front

• Inflation– Rising Prices

• Militia– Destruction of the

Regular Army

• Political Situation in Petrograd– Who is running

Russia?

Problems on the Home Front• Inflation

– Shortages• Price rises

– Cost of Food rises– Transport problems

» Trains commandeered– Hoarding

» Creates urban v rural tensions• Taxation Revenue Down

– Fewer workers producing– Vodka sales prohibited in 1914

» Annoyed Public» Moonshine» Government loss 25% of revenues?

Problems on the Home Front

• Militia– Regular Army long gone– Militia army

• Peasants in uniform• Excitable, disgruntled and armed!

– Russian cities holding large numbers of militia and reserves

• 340,000 in Petrograd alone

Problems on the Home Front• Political Situation in Petrograd

– Discontent over German Tsarina and Rasputin• Put loyalty to Crown before Competence

– Eg removal of Polivanov– Replace by Shuvaev

» Friend of Rasputin» “I may be a fool but I am no traitor!”» Footwear specialist

– Sturmer appointed as Prime Minister» Sycophantic, German name, Friend of Rasputin

– Tsar removed from problems• Received only +ve news from wife

– Although, she did not want him to return– It would reduce her influence

• Surrounded by 8 million loyal army– Front line troops stable– Militia and reservists more excitable

1916 Winter• Hard Winter• Vicious Circle

– Shortages • Hoarding

– Inflation

• Petrograd particularly hard hit– Close to front– Far from grain producing areas– Large staging post for Militia– By February 1917, only a few days of fuel and food left– Uncertainty as to who was directing Russia– Worker’s Councils being formed

• Perfect conditions for Revolution

House of Cards

• February Revolution– Food demonstrations– Tsar on Holiday out of Petrograd– Sudden increase in temperature– Women’s day march 23rd Feb

• Turns into General Strike• 250,000• Troops try to disperse

– Militia refuse to fire on protesting women» Emboldens demonstrators

Tsar Over-reacts

• Tsar orders officials to ‘impose order’– Tsar unaware of the seriousness of

situation– 40 demonstrators killed

• Militia horrified– 160,000 armed militia in barracks designed for

20,000

• Petrograd mutiny 27th Feb– Discipline collapses– Tsar dithers

Who can react to the situation

• Army?

• Soviets?

• Duma?

• SRs?

• Bolsheviks?

• Mensheviks?

Place your bets

Who can react to the situation• Army?

– Unreliable militia nearby– Regular army fighting Germans

• Soviets?– Claim to speak for the masses– Mixture of socialists, revolutionaries, etc…– Resource poor

• Duma?– In the right place – Petrograd– Has some legitimacy

• SRs?– Peasant based – uprising urban based

• Bolsheviks?– Urban based but key personnel in exile

• Lenin in Switzerland, Trotsky in New York

• Mensheviks?– Urban based more personnel nearby– Key player in Soviets

The Irrelevant Tsar

• Bad timing, bad placing– Out of Petrograd– Away from Key advisers and wife– Returning to Petrograd on railway

• Stops at Pskov– Russian Army Headquarters– General Ruzskiiat advises

– Tsar convinced to abdicate to Duma• So that the Army can continue to fight• To avoid a violent socialist revolution

Who won?

• Technically the Duma– Provisional Government

• Patriotic Front of Liberals and Conservatives– Keep their seats

– Wait to hold Constituent Assembly elections

• Continue the war– Army HQ supportive

• Responsible government passes to responsible classes

• Bourgeois Revolution complete

– BUT

Who won?• BUT

– Soviets still in place• Parallel government• SRs, Bolsheviks and Mensheviks• Offers alternative laws

– Some contradictory• Militia more sympathetic

– Don’t want to be sent to Front• Allow Provisional Government to continue

– Receive blame for any problems• The Proletariat Revolution is nearer

• The Dyarchy– Two rival governments– Technically cooperating– Actually hostile and competing

The Road to the Communist Utopia

• Page 20/21 of big red book– Write an article for Pravda explaining the

inevitability of Communism• Although do mention the difficulties of all the

phases that communism needs to pass through