Vulnerability assessment of heat waves in Guangdong Province, China - Wenjun Ma, Liu Tao
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District/county based vulnerability assessment on heat waves in
Guangdong Province
Wenjun Ma, Liu Tao
Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health
Guangdong Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention 11
单击此处编辑母版标题样式GDCDC
Administrative divisions
Professionalinstitutes Affiliated organizations
General Office
Budget and Finance
Public Health Emergency
Bioproducts and Devices
Quality and Technology
Research, Training and Information
Human Resources
Infectious Disease Control and Prevention HIV/AIDS Control and PreventionParasitic Disease Control and PreventionDisinfection and Vector Control
Immunization Programme
Non-communicable Disease Prevention & ControlPrimary Health and Endemic Disease Prevention & Control
Nutrition and Food Safety
Environment and School Health
Pathogenic Microbiology
Public Health Laboratory Services
Toxicology
GD Provincial Institute of Public Health (50 staff)
Institute of Biological Products and Materia Medica (130 staff)
Total staff: 314
Professionals : 275
Brief introduction
WHO Collaborating Centre for Surveillance, Research and Training
of Emerging Infectious Diseases
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GDIPH
Environmental and health
Health risk assessmen
t and standards
General office
International cooperation
and academic exchange
Health policy
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Introduction
Methods
Main findings
Conclusions
Recommendations
Outline
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Introduction
Methods
Main findings
Conclusions
Recommendations
Outline
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Introduction
Climate change
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Climate
change
℃Heat
waves Health impacts of heat waves were
well known
Introduction
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Introduction
Distribution of heat wave times during 1975-2010 in Guangdong province
Heat waves dramatically
increased in the past five decades
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No study was conducted to assess the vulnerability to heat
waves in in Guangdong province.
Introduction
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No study was conducted to assess the vulnerability to heat
waves in in Guangdong province.
Introduction
Vulnerability assessment is a very important tool to find out
the vulnerable groups and regions, which could provide solid
evidence for decision making to protect people from heat
waves.
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No study was conducted to assess the vulnerability to heat waves in in Guangdong
province.
Introduction
Vulnerability assessment is a very important tool to find out the vulnerable groups and
regions, which could provide could provide solid evidence for decision making to protect
people from heat waves.
This study aimed to assess the regional vulnerability to heat
waves in Guangdong province based on the 124
districts/counties.
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Introduction
Methods
Main findings
Conclusions
Recommendations
Outline
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Vulnerability index framework (IPCC)
Methods
Vulnerability index (VI)
Function
Exposure index
(EI)Sensitivity index (SI)
Adaption Index (AI)
单击此处编辑母版标题样式 Build index system
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Methods
Literature review
Expert consultation
Build the indicator system
Comprehensiveness
Dominance Operability
Combing qualitative and quantitative
methods
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Vulnerability indicators
Methods
Vulnerability index frameworkSensitivity
indicators (SI)Adaptive indicators
(AI)Exposure indicators
(EI)
S1. Proportion of people >65 years
A1. Proportion of health technicians in per thousand people
E1. Average annual increase rate of surface temperature during 1975-2005
S2. Proportion of people ≤4 years
A2. Per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
E2. Number of days with maximum temperature > 35℃( 1975-2005)
S3. Proportion of immigrant population
A3. Proportion of homes with per capital living space less than 8m2
S4. Proportion of unemployed population
A4. Populating rate of harmless sanitation toilets in the rural area
S5. Proportion of agricultural population
A5. Proportion of illiterate in people >15 years
S6. Infant mortality
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Data collection
Methods
DataSocial economiccharacteristics
The sixth population census data
Guangdong province health statistics yearbook
Guangdong statistical yearbook
Meteorological dataGuangdong Provincial Meteorological Bureau
Others China's natural disaster risk atlas
China information system for disease control and prevention
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In order to exclude the influences of different indicator scales,
every indicators could be standardized, such as by range
method.
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Methods
njmidddd
djj
jijij ,,2,1;,,2,1,minmax
min
njmidddd
djj
ijjij ,,2,1;,,2,1,minmax
max
The higher the better
The lower the better
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Determine the weighting of each indicator Equal weighting, expert consultation and analytic hierarchy process,
artificial neural network and principle component analysis
Methods
1 3 5 7 9
Relative importance
Equal important
A little more important
Obviously important
Very important
Extremely important
Table 1. Grade of importance
2, 4, 6 and 8 means the middle importance between the two neighbors.
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1
11
1
321
32331
22321
11312
nnn
n
n
n
bbb
bbbbbbbbb
B=
A judgment matrix will be obtained for each index system.
Methods
单击此处编辑母版标题样式 Consistence tests were conducted to test the consistent results
of different indicators’ importance, which was judged by
Consistence Ratio (CR)
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Methods
CR: Consistence Ratio , CI: Consistence Index, RI: Random Index
RICICR
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Weightings of Sensitivity indicators
Methods
Sensitivity indicatorScore of experts
WeightingExpert A
Expert B
Expert C
Expert D
Expert E
S1. Proportion of people >65 years 0.32 0.14 0.17 0.15 0.33 0.226
S2. Proportion of people ≤4 years 0.17 0.05 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.098
S3. Proportion of immigrant population
0.05 0.31 0.34 0.03 0.04 0.167
S4. Proportion of unemployed population
0.09 0.13 0.27 0.03 0.04 0.109
S5. Proportion of agricultural population
0.05 0.33 0.08 0.27 0.19 0.186S6. Infant mortality 0.32 0.05 0.06 0.45 0.33 0.213
CR 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.02
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Weightings of Adaptive indicators
Methods
Adaptive indexesScore of experts
WeightingExpert A
Expert B
Expert C
Expert D
Expert E
A1. Proportion of health technicians in per thousand people 0.04 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.11 0.165
A2. Per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 0.33 0.35 0.47 0.48 0.05 0.335
A3. Proportion of homes with per capital living space less than 8m2
0.13 0.29 0.09 0.08 0.19 0.182A4. Populating rate of
harmless sanitation toilets in the rural area 0.08 0.05 0.11 0.03 0.11 0.069
A5. Proportion of illiterate in people >15 years 0.42 0.06 0.08 0.17 0.55 0.249
CR 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09
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Weightings of exposure indicators
Methods
Exposure indexes
Score of expertsWeightingExpert
AExpert
BExpert
CExpert
DExpert
E
E1. Average annual increase rate of surface temperature during 1975-2005
0.17 0.14 0.20 0.20 0.17 0.165
E2. Number of days with maximum
temperature > 35℃( 1975-
2005)0.83 0.86 0.80 0.80 0.83 0.835
CR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Build vulnerability index
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(1 )* j j
j j
SI AIVI EI
n
Methods
Where, VIj、 EIj、 Sij and Aij mean the exposure index,
sensitivity index and adaptivity index of district/county j. n means
the number of total dimensions.
Scott Baum, et al. 2008
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Calculate the vulnerability index of each county/district
Based on the index and weightings system, the
vulnerability index of each county/district was
calculated.
The distribution of all counties/districts’ vulnerability
index were displayed in the map of Guangdong
province by ArcGIS system.
Methods
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Introduction
Methods
Main findings
Conclusions
Recommendations
Outline
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Main findings
Exposure index was stile-
like distributed, with
higher in north less
developed areas, and
lower in south developed
or coastal areas
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Main findings
Sensitivity index was
lower in the Pearl
River Delta than that
in other places
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Main findings
Adaptive index was
higher in the Pearl
River Delta than that
in other places
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Main findings
Vulnerability index was stile-like
distributed in Guangdong
Province, with higher in north
less developed areas, and lower
in south developed or coastal
areas
单击此处编辑母版标题样式Main findings
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Expert consultation Principal component analysis
There is a good consistence between the results of two methods
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Introduction
Methods
Main findings
Conclusions
Recommendations
Outline
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Vulnerability to heat waves in Guangdong province was stile-
like distributed, with higher in north less developed areas, and
lower in south developed or coastal areas.
Socioeconomic level and people’ adaptive capacity
largely affect the regional vulnerability level to
heat waves.
Conclusions
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Introduction
Methods
Main findings
Conclusions
Recommendations
Outline
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Increase stakeholder’s understanding of the needs to
develop the heat waves response strategies.
Enhance the heat waves early warning and emergency
response system, especially in northern mountain areas.
Identify who are the most vulnerable population groups to
heat waves in northern areas.
Recommendations
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In the past several years, we did lots of research works on climate change and health under the support of ACCC project:
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研究发现
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★The effects of temperature variations on
human health★Health impacts of heat waves and cold spell
★Meteorological factors and infectious diseases
★Risk perception and adaptive capacity
★Translation Research
单击此处编辑母版标题样式Temperature and mortality
Identified the relationship
between temperature and
mortality
Analyzed the effects of DTR and
temperature change between
neighboring days and morality
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研究发现
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★The effects of temperature variations on human health
★Health impacts of heat waves and cold
spell★Meteorological factors and infectious diseases
★Risk perception and adaptive capacity
★Translation Research
单击此处编辑母版标题样式Heat waves, cold spell and morality
Assessed the effects of heat waves and cold spells on mortality in the past and future.
Identified the distribution of vulnerable population to extreme weather events.
Established the early warning system cooperated with meteorological departments.
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研究发现
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★The effects of temperature variations on human health
★Health impacts of heat waves and cold spell
★Meteorological factors and infectious
diseases★Risk perception and adaptive capacity
★Translation Research
单击此处编辑母版标题样式Metrological factors and infectious diseases
Metrological factors and dengueMetrological factors and malaria ;Metrological factors and hand-foot-
mouth disease;Metrological factors and Zika.
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研究发现
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★The effects of temperature variations on human health
★Health impacts of heat waves and cold spell
★Meteorological factors and infectious diseases
★Risk perception and adaptive capacity★Translation Research
单击此处编辑母版标题样式 Investigated the risk perception level
in Guangdong population;Analyzed their adaptive capacity to
heat waves;Conducted intervention research on
heat waves in communities.50
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研究发现
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★The effects of temperature variations on human health
★Health impacts of heat waves and cold spell
★Meteorological factors and infectious diseases
★Risk perception and adaptive capacity
★Translation Research
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Developed a series of health education and risk communication materials.
Submitted a “Two Sessions” proposal. 为 Provided materials to the Guangdong
Provincial Development and Reform Commission for developing adaptive strategies to climate change.
Two sessions proposal Two sessions proposal
Two sessions proposal
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图1.宣传海报图2.购物袋
图4.宣传折纸图3.宣传扇子
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Thanks for your attentionsQ & A
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