v OF THE IMPACT OF 'PEOPLE ENLISTED PE..(U) RESOURCES ... · 7 rd- a±]2l 665 analysis of the impact of 'people programs' upon v retention of enlisted pe..(u) resources research corp

7 RD- A±]2l 665 ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF 'PEOPLE PROGRAMS'

UPON v

RETENTION OF ENLISTED PE..(U) RESOURCES RESEARCH CORP65 COLLEGE STATION TX 09 JUN 82 F4i689-8i-C-9863

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ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF 'PEOPLE PROGRAMS'UPON RETENTION OF ENLISTED PERSONNEL

IN THE AIR FORCE

Contract No. F41689-81-C-0063

Final ReportAPPENDICES D, E, F, G

Resources Research Corporation3833 Texas Ave, Suite 256, Bryan, Texas 77801, 713/846-4713

I DU',3An.o-o STAbMNT A

Ap~w'.d fmg publio z194Distfuibmo x~ihmied

ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF wPEOPLE PROGRAMSOUPON RETENTION OF ENLISTED PERSONNEL

IN THE AIR FORCE

Contract No. F41689-81-C-0063

Final Report

APPENDICES D9 Ep F, G

June 9, 1982

Submitted toMajor George Petrick

AFMPC/MPYARandolph AFB 78150

Submitted byRRC

3833 Texas Avenue, Suite 256Bryan, Texas 77801

Duibutim unkmiad

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Volume I

Chapter Page

S I • Introduction 1

I I. Supply of Air Force Personnel 3

III. Equilibrium in the Air ForcePersonnel Market 16

0 IV. An Overview of the Data 32

V. An Econometric Model of Retention 71

Bibliography 166

Appendix AAppendix B

Volume I

Appendix C, Appendix D

Appendix E

Volume III

Appendix FAppendix GAppendix H

Volume IV

Appendix IAppendix JAppendix KAppendix LAppendix M

.5

W% .,7 - - 7 -B~7I . .-

CHAPTER I

Introduction

Currently, a major concern of the U.S. Air Force is the

relatively low reenlistment rates of experienced Air Force

personnel. For example, the Air Force is faced with manpower

shortages in AFSCs such as Weather Observers, Air Traffic

Controllers, Missile Systems Analysts, and Avionic Communications

Specialists. During the last two decades, the Air Force has

instituted several "people programs" which are designed to

encourage reenlistment of trained first term, second term, and

career airmen. Basically, these programs allow experienced

airmen to have some input in choosing the location or length of

tour of their future assignments. In deciding to what extent

these programs should be continued or expanded, one of several

'criteria upon which the Air Force must evaluate the effectiveness

!of the "people programs" is t? determine the impact of "People

Programs" on retention rates. Of particular concern are such

programs as Base of Preference (BOP) assignments, Joint

Assignment of Married Couples (Join Spouse), Voluntary Stabilized

Base Assignment Program (VSBAP), and the CONUS Assignment SVAP

Program, among others.

The primary purpose of this project is to provide an

evaluation of the impact of the "people programs" on retention.

n particular, we examine both theoretically and empirically the

mpact of assignment policy on the retention of first-termers,

econd-termers and career airman for the years 1974 to 1980.

his time series analysis is undertaken at an individual level,

-. * .. * . . . * . . .

though some aggregate statistics are considered. At the

lndividual level a probit specification will be used to carry out

the analysis. This analysis will allow the Air Force to

determine not only the impact of the "people programs" on

reenlistment rates, but also if the cost of implementing these

programs will be offset by the benefits which, to a large extent,

iconsist of the savings in training costs of new personnel.

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