U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.
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U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National MonumentTracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine Jarnevich
Why are we here?
Understand your needs
Create a useful product
DSS for IronwoodApplicable Elsewhere
Agenda – Day One
Present prototype models for Ironwood How the model works Inputs Scenario Outputs
Breakout Groups Needs and requirements for a DSS Developing scenarios (Decisions and
Uncertainties)
Discussion Presentation on Helicopter Study
Agenda – Day Two
Presentation of additional scenario outputs Presentation on treatment effectiveness at
Saguaro National Park Presentation to decision makers Discussion
Product Factsheet – Workshop outcomes and
scenario Results
How can a DSS help?
Resources are limited Alternative actions are expensive Lag time between actions and results How to get the highest return on investment?
$
Alternative decisions
Inventory - $$$$$Treatment - $$$$$$$$$Maintenance - $$$
Inventory - $$$$$$$$$$$Treatment - $$Maintenance - $$$$
OR? Where?
Multiple objectives
Public safetyBiodiversityTourismCost effective
Catalina Study Area
Calibrating Spread
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
1988 1998 2008
Year
He
cta
re
s
Actual (Aaryn)
Simulated (TELSA)
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1994 2000 2006
Year
Hecta
res
Actual (Aaryn)
Simulated (TELSA)
0.00
0.05
0.100.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.350.40
0.45
0.50
2002 2005 2008
Year
Hecta
res
Actual (Aaryn)
Simulated (TELSA)
Questions?
What if control could happen in neighboring areas?
What if intensive surveys could be conducted more frequently?
What if budget could be increased? What if treatment effectiveness could be
increased? What would the cost be?
Questions?
How much buffelgrass is invading from neighboring lands?
What if volunteers were not available? What if budgets were interrupted so
treatment would only happen every two years?
Where is the biggest fire risk? Where would the most effective treatment to
reduce fire risk?
Model development process
Biology of species Growth, Spread and Mortality
Management activities Effectiveness Amount Cost
Scenarios Change management actives Change management amounts Change uncertainties
State and Transition Model
Current Buffelgrass Invasion
Based on survey data
Classified into categories listed
Ironwood Land Ownership
Remote = 1 mile from roads
Units here define management actions
Habitat suitability
Classifies landscape into three categories
Used to change max density, probability of establishment and spread
Scenarios run
No Management Current Management Double Budget
Manager allocated
Manage everywhere – reduced inventory Mortality
Based on precipitation
2022 2032 2042 2052 20620
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
CurrentManagement
NoManagement
DoubleBudget
ManageEverywhere
Mortality-CurrentManagement
Year
Are
a In
vad
ed (
ac)
2022 2032 2042 2052 20620
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
CurrentManagement
NoManagement
DoubleBudget
ManageEverywhere
Mortality-CurrentManagement
Year
Are
a In
vad
ed (
ac)
2022 2032 2042 2052 20620
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
CurrentManagement
NoManagement
DoubleBudget
ManageEverywhere
Mortality-CurrentManagement
Year
Are
a In
vad
ed (
ac)
2022 2032 2042 2052 20620
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
CurrentManagement
NoManagement
DoubleBudget
ManageEverywhere
Mortality-CurrentManagement
Year
Are
a In
vad
ed (
ac)
2022 2032 2042 2052 20620
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
CurrentManagement
NoManagement
DoubleBudget
ManageEverywhere
Mortality-CurrentManagement
Year
Are
a In
vad
ed (
ac)
No Management
No management No mortality
Management InputManagement Activity <5% 5 to
50% >50% >50 partial
Cost Per Acre
Acres Per Yr
Incidental Inventory 1% 50% 90% $0.06 12,000
Intensive Field Surveys 90% 90% 100% $0.10 129,000
Vehicle Mounted Spraying 50%* 50%* 50%* 25% $400.00 10
Backpack Spraying (accessible) 50% 50%* 50% 25%* $125.00 200
Volunteer Hand Pulling (accessible & remote) 90% 90% 90% 9% $68.64 40
Follow-up maintenance (volunteer remote) 100% NA NA $68.64 10
Follow-up maintenance (accessible) 100% NA NA $112.00 80
Effectiveness by percent cover
*Have updated values not yet incorporated
Current Management
2022 2032 2042 2052 20620
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
CurrentManagement
NoManagement
DoubleBudget
ManageEverywhere
Mortality-CurrentManagement
Year
Are
a In
vad
ed (
ac)
Double Budget
Intensive inventory frequency – 7 to 3 years
Backpack spraying – 200 to 300 acres
Added more costly contract hand pulling Accessible – 30 acres Remote – 10 Acres
Follow-up maintenance – 80 to 160 acres
Double Budget
2022 2032 2042 2052 20620
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
CurrentManagement NoManagement
DoubleBudget ManageEverywhere
Mortality-CurrentManagement
Year
Are
a In
vad
ed (
ac)
Management Everywhere
2022 2032 2042 2052 20620
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
CurrentManagement NoManagement
DoubleBudget ManageEverywhere
Mortality-CurrentManagement
Year
Are
a In
vad
ed (
ac)
Same ratio of mgmt as current scenario
Lower probability of inventory
Mortality and Growth
Index used to spatially alter probability of mortality and growth
Mortality
Same as current mgmnt + mortality
2022 2032 2042 2052 20620
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
CurrentManagement NoManagement
DoubleBudget ManageEverywhere
Mortality-CurrentManagement
Year
Are
a In
vad
ed (
ac)
Detected vs. Undetected20
22
2032
2042
2052
2062
2022
2032
2042
2052
2062
2022
2032
2042
2052
2062
2022
2032
2042
2052
2062
2022
2032
2042
2052
2062
CurrentManagement NoManagement DoubleBudget ManageEverywhere Mortality-CurrentMan-agement
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Detected Undetected
Inventory and Control Costs10 20 30 40 50 10 20 30 40 50 10 20 30 40 50 10 20 30 40 50
CurrentManagement DoubleBudget ManagementEverywhere Morality-CurrentMan-agement
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
Inventory
Control
Management Costs
CurrentManagement ManagementEverywhere0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
State RemoteStatePrivate RemotePrivateMilitaryIndian Lands RemoteIndian LandsBLM RemoteBLM
Ma
na
ge
me
nt
Co
sts
($
) o
ve
r 5
0 Y
ea
rs B
y
Ow
ne
rsh
ip
Management Efficiency
CurrentManagement DoubleBudget ManageEverywhere0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5In
va
sio
n A
vo
ide
d (
ac
) F
or
Ev
ery
$1
0K
S
pe
nt
on
Co
ntr
ol
Updates to be incorporated
Inventory needs to be updated. Affects the amount acres that are detected. When
it is updated there will be more inventory occurring, and potentially more buffelgrass found.
Update the effectiveness of spraying Explore inventory vs. control Calibrate with Tucson Mountain data Explore more scenarios
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