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U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine Jarnevich
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U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Jan 04, 2016

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Page 1: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National MonumentTracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine Jarnevich

Page 2: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Why are we here?

Understand your needs

Create a useful product

DSS for IronwoodApplicable Elsewhere

Page 3: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Agenda – Day One

Present prototype models for Ironwood How the model works Inputs Scenario Outputs

Breakout Groups Needs and requirements for a DSS Developing scenarios (Decisions and

Uncertainties)

Discussion Presentation on Helicopter Study

Page 4: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Agenda – Day Two

Presentation of additional scenario outputs Presentation on treatment effectiveness at

Saguaro National Park Presentation to decision makers Discussion

Product Factsheet – Workshop outcomes and

scenario Results

Page 5: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

How can a DSS help?

Resources are limited Alternative actions are expensive Lag time between actions and results How to get the highest return on investment?

$

Page 6: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Alternative decisions

Inventory - $$$$$Treatment - $$$$$$$$$Maintenance - $$$

Inventory - $$$$$$$$$$$Treatment - $$Maintenance - $$$$

OR? Where?

Page 7: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Multiple objectives

Public safetyBiodiversityTourismCost effective

Page 8: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Catalina Study Area

Page 9: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Calibrating Spread

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

1988 1998 2008

Year

He

cta

re

s

Actual (Aaryn)

Simulated (TELSA)

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

1994 2000 2006

Year

Hecta

res

Actual (Aaryn)

Simulated (TELSA)

0.00

0.05

0.100.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.350.40

0.45

0.50

2002 2005 2008

Year

Hecta

res

Actual (Aaryn)

Simulated (TELSA)

Page 10: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Questions?

What if control could happen in neighboring areas?

What if intensive surveys could be conducted more frequently?

What if budget could be increased? What if treatment effectiveness could be

increased? What would the cost be?

Page 11: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Questions?

How much buffelgrass is invading from neighboring lands?

What if volunteers were not available? What if budgets were interrupted so

treatment would only happen every two years?

Where is the biggest fire risk? Where would the most effective treatment to

reduce fire risk?

Page 12: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Model development process

Biology of species Growth, Spread and Mortality

Management activities Effectiveness Amount Cost

Scenarios Change management actives Change management amounts Change uncertainties

Page 13: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

State and Transition Model

Page 14: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Current Buffelgrass Invasion

Based on survey data

Classified into categories listed

Page 15: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Ironwood Land Ownership

Remote = 1 mile from roads

Units here define management actions

Page 16: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Habitat suitability

Classifies landscape into three categories

Used to change max density, probability of establishment and spread

Page 17: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Scenarios run

No Management Current Management Double Budget

Manager allocated

Manage everywhere – reduced inventory Mortality

Based on precipitation

Page 18: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

2022 2032 2042 2052 20620

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

CurrentManagement

NoManagement

DoubleBudget

ManageEverywhere

Mortality-CurrentManagement

Year

Are

a In

vad

ed (

ac)

2022 2032 2042 2052 20620

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

CurrentManagement

NoManagement

DoubleBudget

ManageEverywhere

Mortality-CurrentManagement

Year

Are

a In

vad

ed (

ac)

2022 2032 2042 2052 20620

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

CurrentManagement

NoManagement

DoubleBudget

ManageEverywhere

Mortality-CurrentManagement

Year

Are

a In

vad

ed (

ac)

2022 2032 2042 2052 20620

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

CurrentManagement

NoManagement

DoubleBudget

ManageEverywhere

Mortality-CurrentManagement

Year

Are

a In

vad

ed (

ac)

2022 2032 2042 2052 20620

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

CurrentManagement

NoManagement

DoubleBudget

ManageEverywhere

Mortality-CurrentManagement

Year

Are

a In

vad

ed (

ac)

No Management

No management No mortality

Page 19: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Management InputManagement Activity <5% 5 to

50% >50% >50 partial

Cost Per Acre

Acres Per Yr

Incidental Inventory 1% 50% 90%   $0.06 12,000

Intensive Field Surveys 90% 90% 100%   $0.10 129,000

Vehicle Mounted Spraying 50%* 50%* 50%* 25% $400.00 10

Backpack Spraying (accessible) 50% 50%* 50% 25%* $125.00 200

Volunteer Hand Pulling (accessible & remote) 90% 90% 90% 9% $68.64 40

Follow-up maintenance (volunteer remote) 100% NA NA   $68.64 10

Follow-up maintenance (accessible) 100% NA NA   $112.00 80

Effectiveness by percent cover

*Have updated values not yet incorporated

Page 20: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Current Management

2022 2032 2042 2052 20620

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

CurrentManagement

NoManagement

DoubleBudget

ManageEverywhere

Mortality-CurrentManagement

Year

Are

a In

vad

ed (

ac)

Page 21: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Double Budget

Intensive inventory frequency – 7 to 3 years

Backpack spraying – 200 to 300 acres

Added more costly contract hand pulling Accessible – 30 acres Remote – 10 Acres

Follow-up maintenance – 80 to 160 acres

Page 22: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Double Budget

2022 2032 2042 2052 20620

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

CurrentManagement NoManagement

DoubleBudget ManageEverywhere

Mortality-CurrentManagement

Year

Are

a In

vad

ed (

ac)

Page 23: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Management Everywhere

2022 2032 2042 2052 20620

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

CurrentManagement NoManagement

DoubleBudget ManageEverywhere

Mortality-CurrentManagement

Year

Are

a In

vad

ed (

ac)

Same ratio of mgmt as current scenario

Lower probability of inventory

Page 24: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Mortality and Growth

Index used to spatially alter probability of mortality and growth

Page 25: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Mortality

Same as current mgmnt + mortality

2022 2032 2042 2052 20620

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

CurrentManagement NoManagement

DoubleBudget ManageEverywhere

Mortality-CurrentManagement

Year

Are

a In

vad

ed (

ac)

Page 26: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Detected vs. Undetected20

22

2032

2042

2052

2062

2022

2032

2042

2052

2062

2022

2032

2042

2052

2062

2022

2032

2042

2052

2062

2022

2032

2042

2052

2062

CurrentManagement NoManagement DoubleBudget ManageEverywhere Mortality-CurrentMan-agement

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Detected Undetected

Page 27: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Inventory and Control Costs10 20 30 40 50 10 20 30 40 50 10 20 30 40 50 10 20 30 40 50

CurrentManagement DoubleBudget ManagementEverywhere Morality-CurrentMan-agement

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

Inventory

Control

Page 28: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Management Costs

CurrentManagement ManagementEverywhere0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

State RemoteStatePrivate RemotePrivateMilitaryIndian Lands RemoteIndian LandsBLM RemoteBLM

Ma

na

ge

me

nt

Co

sts

($

) o

ve

r 5

0 Y

ea

rs B

y

Ow

ne

rsh

ip

Page 29: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Management Efficiency

CurrentManagement DoubleBudget ManageEverywhere0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5In

va

sio

n A

vo

ide

d (

ac

) F

or

Ev

ery

$1

0K

S

pe

nt

on

Co

ntr

ol

Page 30: U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine.

Updates to be incorporated

Inventory needs to be updated. Affects the amount acres that are detected. When

it is updated there will be more inventory occurring, and potentially more buffelgrass found.

Update the effectiveness of spraying Explore inventory vs. control Calibrate with Tucson Mountain data Explore more scenarios