University Entrance Rates of Ontario Residents: Regional and Gender Analysis CUPA Conference (University of Guelph) June 24, 2009 Ian Calvert, Carleton.
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University Entrance Ratesof Ontario Residents:
Regional and Gender Analysis
CUPA Conference (University of Guelph)June 24, 2009
Ian Calvert, Carleton UniversityDave Smith, York University
Outline
• Background and objective• Methodology• Ontario picture 1989 to 2007• Regional and gender analysis 1989 to 2007• Population projections to 2021• New-entrant scenarios to 2021• Discussion• References
Background and Objective
• CESPA* has developed a “flow-through” model as a tool to estimate future undergraduate enrolment at Ontario universities, and associated grant-funding implications
• This model relies on estimates of new, full-time entrants into first year; upper-year enrolments are then projected, as well as Full-Time Equivalents (FTEs) and Basic Income Units (BIUs)
• Objective of this analysis: to estimate new, first-year, full-time entrants by:– Looking at regional population projections, and– Rates at which young adults from those regions enroll
* CUPA Committee on Enrolment Statistics, Projections, and Analysis
Methodology
• Ontario population data and projections:– Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance– Projections based on 2001 census*
• Ontario enrolment data:– Source: Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities– First-year, first-time (at institution), full-time enrolment– Domestic and International students– Direct-entry programs only
• Focus on entrants aged 18 to 20 (direct-entry programs)
• “Entrance rate” = (new, FT, 1st-year) / (18-20 population)
* New projections, based on 2006 census, are anticipated this fall.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Full-time, Grant-Eligible, First-Year Entrantsto Ontario Universities
Age 20
Age 19
Age 18
Source: MTCU User reports (November 1st count). Note: age is calculated as age at end of calendar year of enrolment.COU-CUPA (CESPA) 2009-06-14
18-20 Ontario81%
Other Ontario8%
Other Canada4%
Outside Canada7%
First-Year, Full-time Students in Ontario Universitiesby Geographic Origin: Fall Term 2007
Source -- MTCU; includes grant-eligible and ineligible,first-tim e students (at institution) onlyCUPA (CESPA) 2009-06-16
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
Ontario Population Aged 18 to 20
Total
Males
Females
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance. CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
First-year, Full-time Enrolment Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario
Total
Females
Males
Source: Ontario Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities; first-time students (at institution) onlyCUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Entrance Rates by Gender: First-year, Full-time Students Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario
Females
Total
Males
Note: includes First-time (at institution), Full-time Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31
Regional Groupings
Southwest:– BRUCE– ELGIN– ESSEX– GREY– HURON– KENT– LAMBTON– MIDDLESEX– OXFORD– PERTH
Central:– BRANT– DUFFERIN– HALDIMAND-NORFOLK– HALIBURTON– HAMILTON– MUSKOKA– NIAGARA– NORTHUMBERLAND– PETERBOROUGH &
VICTORIA– SIMCOE– WATERLOO– WELLINGTON
Regional Groupings
Toronto
GTA excluding Toronto:– DURHAM– HALTON– PEEL– YORK
East:– FRONTENAC– HASTINGS– LANARK– LEEDS & GRENVILLE– LENNOX & ADDINGTON– OTTAWA– PRESCOTT & RUSSELL – PRINCE EDWARD– RENFREW – STORMONT, DUNDAS &
GLENGARRY
Regional Groupings
North:– ALGOMA– COCHRANE – GREATER SUDBURY– KENORA– MANITOULIN– NIPISSING– PARRY SOUND – RAINY RIVER– SUDBURY– THUNDER BAY– TIMISKAMING
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
Ontario Population Aged 18 to 20
GTA excl. Toronto
Central
Toronto
East
Southwest
North
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance. CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Entrance Rates: First-year, Full-time Students Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario
GTA
Total
Other Ontario
Note: includes First-time (at institution), Full-time Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Regional Entrance Rates: First-year, FT Students Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario
GTA excl. Toronto
Toronto
East
Central
Southwest
North
Note: includes First-time (at institution), Full-time Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31
Ontario Regional Origin of First-year, Full-time Students Aged 18-20
Southwest9%
Central17% Toronto
22%
GTA excl. Toronto
34%
East14%
North4%
Source: MTCU; first-time students (at institution) onlyCUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31
1989 2007
Southwest14%
Central18%
Toronto25%
GTA excl. Toronto
23%East14%
North6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Entrance Rates: First-year, Full-time, Female Students Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario
GTA
Total
Other Ontario
Note: includes First-time (at institution), Full-time Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Regional Entrance Rates: First-year, FT Students Aged 18-20 from Ontario -- Females
GTA excl. Toronto
Toronto
East
Central
Southwest
North
Note: includes First-tim e (at institution), Full-tim e Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Entrance Rates: First-year, Full-time, Male Students Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario
GTA
Total
Other Ontario
Note: includes First-time (at institution), Full-time Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Regional Entrance Rates: First-year, FT Students Aged 18-20 from Ontario -- Males
GTA excl. Toronto
Toronto
East
Central
Southwest
North
Note: includes First-tim e (at institution), Full-tim e Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
Projection of Ontario Population Aged 18 to 20
Total
Male
Female
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance. CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
275,000
300,000
Projection of Ontario Population Aged 18 to 20
Other OntarioGTA
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance. CUPA (CESPA) 2009-06-13
Enrolment Scenarios
• Scenario 1: constant (i.e., entrance rates stay at 2007 levels)
• Scenario 2: rates continue trend of past three years• Scenario 3: rates continue trend of past five years*• Scenario 4: rates continue trend of past ten years*• Scenario 5: rates continue trend of all years (since 1989)*• For each scenario, two variations:
– Provincial entrance rate
– Region/gender entrance rates
* Rates for years 2002 to 2004 have been excluded because of the double cohort
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Entrance Rates: First-year, Full-time Students Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario
GTA
Total
Other Ontario
Note: includes First-time (at institution), Full-time Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
First Year, FT, 18-to-20 Enrolment Scenarios
3-year trend
5-year trend
10-year trend
All-year trend
Constant rates
Notes: First-time (at institution) Ontario university students only. Years 2002 to 2004 excluded when estimating rate changes.Region/gender based rates usedSources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31
+90%
+40%
+22%
+17%
0%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
First Year, FT, 18-to-20 Enrolment Scenarios
5-year trend
10-year trend
Constant rates
Notes: First-time (at institution) Ontario university students only. Years 2002 to 2004 excluded when estimating rate changes.Region/gender based rates usedSources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31
+40%
+22%
0%
50,000
52,500
55,000
57,500
60,000
62,500
65,000
67,500
70,000
72,500
75,000
77,500
80,000
82,500
1st Year, FT, 18-to-20 EnrolmentBased on 5-Yr. Entrance-Rate Trend
Region/gender-based
Using provincial rates
Note: First-tim e (at institution) Ontario university students only. Years 2002 to 2004 excluded when estim ating rate changes.Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31
Southwest8%
Central15%
Toronto22%
GTA excl. Toronto40%
East12%
North3%
First-Year, Full-time Students Aged 18 - 20by Region: Fall Term 2021 (Constant Rate Scenario)
Source: CUPA (CESPA) 2009-06-14
Discussion Points
• What if we close the gender gap?– Constant 2007 female entrance rates applied to males, by
region +16%* enrolment in 2021
• What if we close the regional gap?– Constant 2007 male/female GTA entrance rates applied to
all regions +20% enrolment in 2021
• What if we close the gender and regional gaps?– Constant 2007 GTA female entrance rates +35%
enrolment in 2021
• What other scenarios should we consider?
* relative to Fall 2007 enrolment
… a Final Comment
• Need to differentiate where students come from, and where students enroll
• All Ontario institutions serve students from the GTA• OCAD, Ryerson, Toronto, York and UOIT account for
52% of entrants from the GTA
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Fall 2007 New, Domestic, "101" RegistrantsAge 18 to 20 from the GTA, by Institution (1)
Source: OUAC file. Note "101s" are students applying for adm ission while in full -time attendance at an Ontario secondary school.CUPA (CESPA) 2009-06-14
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Fall 2007 New, Domestic, "101" RegistrantsAge 18 to 20 from the GTA, by Institution (2)
Source: OUAC file. Note "101s" are students applying for adm ission while in full -time attendance at an Ontario secondary school .CUPA (CESPA) 2009-06-14
References
• More information on Ontario demographics is available at: http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/english/economy/demographics/
• Statistics Canada enrolment projections are available at: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/81-595-m/81-595-m2007058-eng.htm
• The Council of Ontario Universities has a wide variety of publications available at:http://www.cou.on.ca/_bin/publications/onlinePublications.cfm
• The Association of Universities and Colleges analysis of trends is available at: http://www.aucc.ca/policy/research/index_e.html
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