University Entrance Rates of Ontario Residents: Regional and Gender Analysis CUPA Conference (University of Guelph) June 24, 2009 Ian Calvert, Carleton.

University Entrance Ratesof Ontario Residents:

Regional and Gender Analysis

CUPA Conference (University of Guelph)June 24, 2009

Ian Calvert, Carleton UniversityDave Smith, York University

Outline

• Background and objective• Methodology• Ontario picture 1989 to 2007• Regional and gender analysis 1989 to 2007• Population projections to 2021• New-entrant scenarios to 2021• Discussion• References

Background and Objective

• CESPA* has developed a “flow-through” model as a tool to estimate future undergraduate enrolment at Ontario universities, and associated grant-funding implications

• This model relies on estimates of new, full-time entrants into first year; upper-year enrolments are then projected, as well as Full-Time Equivalents (FTEs) and Basic Income Units (BIUs)

• Objective of this analysis: to estimate new, first-year, full-time entrants by:– Looking at regional population projections, and– Rates at which young adults from those regions enroll

* CUPA Committee on Enrolment Statistics, Projections, and Analysis

Methodology

• Ontario population data and projections:– Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance– Projections based on 2001 census*

• Ontario enrolment data:– Source: Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities– First-year, first-time (at institution), full-time enrolment– Domestic and International students– Direct-entry programs only

• Focus on entrants aged 18 to 20 (direct-entry programs)

• “Entrance rate” = (new, FT, 1st-year) / (18-20 population)

* New projections, based on 2006 census, are anticipated this fall.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Full-time, Grant-Eligible, First-Year Entrantsto Ontario Universities

Age 20

Age 19

Age 18

Source: MTCU User reports (November 1st count). Note: age is calculated as age at end of calendar year of enrolment.COU-CUPA (CESPA) 2009-06-14

18-20 Ontario81%

Other Ontario8%

Other Canada4%

Outside Canada7%

First-Year, Full-time Students in Ontario Universitiesby Geographic Origin: Fall Term 2007

Source -- MTCU; includes grant-eligible and ineligible,first-tim e students (at institution) onlyCUPA (CESPA) 2009-06-16

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

Ontario Population Aged 18 to 20

Total

Males

Females

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance. CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

First-year, Full-time Enrolment Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario

Total

Females

Males

Source: Ontario Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities; first-time students (at institution) onlyCUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Entrance Rates by Gender: First-year, Full-time Students Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario

Females

Total

Males

Note: includes First-time (at institution), Full-time Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

Regional Groupings

Southwest:– BRUCE– ELGIN– ESSEX– GREY– HURON– KENT– LAMBTON– MIDDLESEX– OXFORD– PERTH

Central:– BRANT– DUFFERIN– HALDIMAND-NORFOLK– HALIBURTON– HAMILTON– MUSKOKA– NIAGARA– NORTHUMBERLAND– PETERBOROUGH &

VICTORIA– SIMCOE– WATERLOO– WELLINGTON

Regional Groupings

Toronto

GTA excluding Toronto:– DURHAM– HALTON– PEEL– YORK

East:– FRONTENAC– HASTINGS– LANARK– LEEDS & GRENVILLE– LENNOX & ADDINGTON– OTTAWA– PRESCOTT & RUSSELL – PRINCE EDWARD– RENFREW – STORMONT, DUNDAS &

GLENGARRY

Regional Groupings

North:– ALGOMA– COCHRANE – GREATER SUDBURY– KENORA– MANITOULIN– NIPISSING– PARRY SOUND – RAINY RIVER– SUDBURY– THUNDER BAY– TIMISKAMING

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

Ontario Population Aged 18 to 20

GTA excl. Toronto

Central

Toronto

East

Southwest

North


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Entrance Rates: First-year, Full-time Students Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario

GTA

Total

Other Ontario


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Regional Entrance Rates: First-year, FT Students Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario

GTA excl. Toronto

Toronto

East

Central

Southwest

North


Ontario Regional Origin of First-year, Full-time Students Aged 18-20

Southwest9%

Central17% Toronto

22%

GTA excl. Toronto

34%

East14%

North4%

Source: MTCU; first-time students (at institution) onlyCUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

1989 2007

Southwest14%

Central18%

Toronto25%

GTA excl. Toronto

23%East14%

North6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Entrance Rates: First-year, Full-time, Female Students Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario

GTA

Total

Other Ontario


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Regional Entrance Rates: First-year, FT Students Aged 18-20 from Ontario -- Females

GTA excl. Toronto

Toronto

East

Central

Southwest

North

Note: includes First-tim e (at institution), Full-tim e Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Entrance Rates: First-year, Full-time, Male Students Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario

GTA

Total

Other Ontario


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Regional Entrance Rates: First-year, FT Students Aged 18-20 from Ontario -- Males

GTA excl. Toronto

Toronto

East

Central

Southwest

North

Note: includes First-tim e (at institution), Full-tim e Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

Projection of Ontario Population Aged 18 to 20

Total

Male

Female


0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000

250,000

275,000

300,000

Projection of Ontario Population Aged 18 to 20

Other OntarioGTA


Enrolment Scenarios

• Scenario 1: constant (i.e., entrance rates stay at 2007 levels)

• Scenario 2: rates continue trend of past three years• Scenario 3: rates continue trend of past five years*• Scenario 4: rates continue trend of past ten years*• Scenario 5: rates continue trend of all years (since 1989)*• For each scenario, two variations:

– Provincial entrance rate

– Region/gender entrance rates

* Rates for years 2002 to 2004 have been excluded because of the double cohort

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Entrance Rates: First-year, Full-time Students Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario

GTA

Total

Other Ontario


50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

First Year, FT, 18-to-20 Enrolment Scenarios

3-year trend

5-year trend

10-year trend

All-year trend

Constant rates

Notes: First-time (at institution) Ontario university students only. Years 2002 to 2004 excluded when estimating rate changes.Region/gender based rates usedSources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

+90%

+40%

+22%

+17%

0%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

First Year, FT, 18-to-20 Enrolment Scenarios

5-year trend

10-year trend

Constant rates

Notes: First-time (at institution) Ontario university students only. Years 2002 to 2004 excluded when estimating rate changes.Region/gender based rates usedSources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

+40%

+22%

0%

50,000

52,500

55,000

57,500

60,000

62,500

65,000

67,500

70,000

72,500

75,000

77,500

80,000

82,500

1st Year, FT, 18-to-20 EnrolmentBased on 5-Yr. Entrance-Rate Trend

Region/gender-based

Using provincial rates

Note: First-tim e (at institution) Ontario university students only. Years 2002 to 2004 excluded when estim ating rate changes.Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

Southwest8%

Central15%

Toronto22%

GTA excl. Toronto40%

East12%

North3%

First-Year, Full-time Students Aged 18 - 20by Region: Fall Term 2021 (Constant Rate Scenario)

Source: CUPA (CESPA) 2009-06-14

Discussion Points

• What if we close the gender gap?– Constant 2007 female entrance rates applied to males, by

region +16%* enrolment in 2021

• What if we close the regional gap?– Constant 2007 male/female GTA entrance rates applied to

all regions +20% enrolment in 2021

• What if we close the gender and regional gaps?– Constant 2007 GTA female entrance rates +35%

enrolment in 2021

• What other scenarios should we consider?

* relative to Fall 2007 enrolment

… a Final Comment

• Need to differentiate where students come from, and where students enroll

• All Ontario institutions serve students from the GTA• OCAD, Ryerson, Toronto, York and UOIT account for

52% of entrants from the GTA

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Fall 2007 New, Domestic, "101" RegistrantsAge 18 to 20 from the GTA, by Institution (1)

Source: OUAC file. Note "101s" are students applying for adm ission while in full -time attendance at an Ontario secondary school.CUPA (CESPA) 2009-06-14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Fall 2007 New, Domestic, "101" RegistrantsAge 18 to 20 from the GTA, by Institution (2)

Source: OUAC file. Note "101s" are students applying for adm ission while in full -time attendance at an Ontario secondary school .CUPA (CESPA) 2009-06-14

References

• More information on Ontario demographics is available at: http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/english/economy/demographics/

• Statistics Canada enrolment projections are available at: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/81-595-m/81-595-m2007058-eng.htm

• The Council of Ontario Universities has a wide variety of publications available at:http://www.cou.on.ca/_bin/publications/onlinePublications.cfm

• The Association of Universities and Colleges analysis of trends is available at: http://www.aucc.ca/policy/research/index_e.html

University Entrance Rates of Ontario Residents: Regional and Gender Analysis CUPA Conference (University of Guelph) June 24, 2009 Ian Calvert, Carleton.

Documents

analysis slide

york university slide

dundas glengarry slide

double cohort slide

female entrance rates

new projections

years scenario

ontario regional origin