Transforming Transportation: Now and for the Future

Transforming Transportation:

Now and for the Future

Jack KitowskiMay 10, 2001

Air Resources Board

California Environmental Protection Agency

Air, Energy & Transportation Challenges

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:Overview

Goal: Clean and healthful air

Progress: – Light-duty Vehicles

Zero Emission Vehicles Advanced Transportation

– Heavy-duty Vehicles Transit Buses

Vision: “conventional technologies and fuels are not enough”

Air Resources Board’s Goal

Ensure all individuals in California, especially children and the elderly, can live, work and play in a healthful environment -- free from harmful exposure to air pollution.

Air Quality TrendsHighest Ozone: Greater Los Angeles

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Standard

+87%

Daily VMT Increasing Faster Than Population

Daily VMT Increasing Faster Than Population

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Population

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Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Light-duty vehicles

Reducing Motor Vehicle Emissions in California

1990 Low Emission Vehicle (LEVI) Program – Emissions reduced 50% - 75% – Vehicle + fuel = system– ZEV Mandate: 10% of sales

Resulting technologies:– Better fuel control– Catalysts: Quick warm-up– On-board diagnostics

– EVs, hybrids, natural gas, fuel cells

LEVII: “Near Zero” Emissions

00.050.1

0.150.2

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HC

NOx(g/mile)

LEV I LEV II

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Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks

Gasoline engines:Near-zero vehicle emissions possible

– 2000 & 2001 Nissan Sentra CA– Honda ZLEV

Emissions remain from fuel distribution– Terminals– Cargo tankers– Service stations

Fuel Distribution EmissionsFuel Distribution Emissionsvs. vs. Cleanest Gasoline Car*Cleanest Gasoline Car*

Fuel

DistributionTailpipe*

* PZEV

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks

Nissan Sentra CA

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks

Battery electric vehicles: >2000 on-road in California No vehicle emissions - ever! Minimal fuel distribution emissions (in CA) Better efficiency (lower CO2)

Low operating cost Limited range ~70 miles High battery cost

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks

Toyota RAV4

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks

Ford Ranger

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks

Daimler-Chrsler EPIC

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks

HondaEV Plus

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks

Nissan Altra

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks

Ford Th!nk -

City

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks

Toyota Ecom

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks

Fuel cell electric vehicles: DaimlerChrysler NECAR, Ford P2000 . . . . California Fuel Cell Partnership Zero or near zero emissions No range limits Better efficiency (low CO2) Cost reduction needed

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks

DaimlerChrysler Fuel Cell

Electric Vehicle

Revisiting the ZEV Mandate:2001

Mandate stays– Reduce uncertainty– No more reviews

Modify to address– Near term availability– Cost– Market sustainability

Key Elements of the Revised Mandate

More gradual phase-in – Lower numbers early years

Incentives needed for new technologies– Hybrids & natural gas vehicles count toward up to half of ZEV

requirement.

– Bigger credits for early introduction (4x)

– Bigger credits for hydrogen fuel cells (10x)

– Efficiency credits

Extend and increase mandate beyond 2010

ZEVs: Revised Mandate

10 % Mandate

2 %

ZEV

6 % PZEV

2 % Hybrids, natural gas

2 %

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks

Natural gas engines– Near-zero tailpipe emissions– No evaporation emissions– Minimal fuel distribution

emissions– Adequate range: ~ 200 miles– ~ $3,000 premium– Home refueling possible

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks

2001 Honda

Civic GX

(natural gas)

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks

Hybrid electric vehicles:– No range limitations

With ‘no all electric range’– 2000 Honda Insight, Toyota Prius

– Big 3: Diesel hybrids, “light” hybrids

– No urban emission advantages

– Better efficiency (lower CO2)

With ‘electric range’– Emission advantages of battery EV

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks

Honda Insight

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks

Toyota Prius

Transforming Transportation: Transforming Transportation: (ZEV Sales Requirement in CA)

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Assumes equal mix of full function and city EVs

Transforming Transportation: Transforming Transportation: (Preliminary Sales Requirements)

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ZEVs

Hybrids & CNG

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Heavy-duty vehicles

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation: Urban Transit Buses

New bus emission standards– 90% lower emissions

– Ultra-low sulfur (15 ppm) fuel

– Two paths: Diesel or Alternative fuel

Older buses– Retrofit with soot filters

– Ultra-low sulfur fuel

Zero emission buses– Likely fuel cells, Demos: 2003

– 15% purchase requirement: beginning 2008

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Heavy-Duty Trucks & BusesHeavy-Duty Trucks & Buses

CNG Transit Bus

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Heavy-Duty Trucks & BusesHeavy-Duty Trucks & Buses

Fuel cell engines: Transit buses

– Hydrogen fueled– Zero emissions– Fuel efficiency better than diesel– Commercial as soon as 2002– Challenge: Cost reduction

Other applications– Line haul trucks, locomotives

Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:

Heavy-Duty Trucks & BusesHeavy-Duty Trucks & Buses

Ballard Fuel Cell Engine

Vision for the Future

Light-duty vehicle fleet being transformed:– natural gas vehicles, hybrids, battery electric

vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles

Your vehicle choices will increase dramatically over the next 5-10 years !

Heavy-duty trucks/buses being transformed: – natural gas and fuel cell vehicles

Transforming Transportation:

Now and for the Future

Jack Kitowski

Air, Energy & Transportation Challenges