Traffic pollution, climate change and restricting car use

18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle

Traffic related pollution: Our progress managing air quality and

carbon emissions

Professor Margaret Bell CBENewcastle University, School of Civil

Engineering and Geosciences,Transport Operations Research Group

This Presentation• Local Authority Responsibilities • History and health impacts• Effect of driver behaviour on emissions• Carbon Emissions: How are we doing?• Effect of tailpipe emissions on roadside concentrations• Background versus roadside monitoring• Some Solutions?• The Challenge• The Future• Summary But………………….

Responsibilities

Binding targets: 67% reduction eCO2 by 2050 over 2010Meet Air Quality Objectives - Nitrogen Dioxide and PM10Health: 50,000 deaths brought forward in 2010 due to poor air

qualityAccidents: In UK 1870 fatal accidents in 2010 Congestion:

• Damaging the economy• Major source emissions, • Destroying planet, • Reducing life expectancy and

History and Health Impacts

London Smog• 4th December 1952 for 5 days• 4,000 deaths• Anti cyclone over London, wind dropped, air

damp, thick fog• Air dark, tinged yellow, smelled of rotten eggs• Sulphur and other toxins from coal fires• BBC 5th December 2002 Reported

– 12,000 Deaths– Chronic respiratory cardiovascular

complaints– Mortality from bronchitis and pneumonia

increased >7 fold

London Smog

People and animals wore face masks

Problems Today• Smoke and sulphur dioxide pollution in cities is much lower

than in the past

• BUT rapid growth of transport in the last 20 years has resulted in a different kind of pollution in urban areas

• Nowadays Photochemical Smogs build up during warm sunny days in summer, when air pollutants are trapped at ground level

• Experienced in Europe and Los Angeles for many years due to climate

• UK Government responded imposing standards and tasking LA to establish Air Quality Management Areas

Traffic and Environmental Impacts

Source: The effects of emerging vehicle technologies on certain vehicle emissions not currently regulated (DfT 2006)

Pollutants sources

• CO (poor combustion of carbon fuel• NO2 (motor vehicles, combustion) • SO2 (combustion, power stations)• PM10 (diesel and combustion)• HC benzene, butadiene (petrol)• O3 (secondary from sunlight on NOx and VOCS)

• Pb (Industry - removed from petrol)

Cycling and walking: Win – Win for Health

Effect of Driver Behaviour on Emissions

Characterising UK vehicle emissions

Chassis dynamometer (e.g. Bath University)

Highly Instrumented vehicle (e.g. Leeds and Southampton University UK

RETEMM (Real-world Traffic Emissions Monitoring and Modelling) Project funded by UK EPSRC at Leeds University40 drivers (20 male, 20 female)Ages 21-63 years10 loops of the same 0.6km circuit

Data collection

(a) Carbon dioxide (b) Hydrocarbons (c) Oxides of Nitrogen

Driver 7 `

Driver 31

Over revving and Sloppy Gear changing is more polluting

Engine Speed versus Vehicle Speed

Real-World Network Driving Emissions: Petrol

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0

HC (g/km)0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

EURO0 EURO1 EURO2 EURO3 EURO4

NOX-HC

Aromatic & Olefin are predominant HC in O3

formation.

Not meeting targets

Ozone forming potential increasing

Diesel mainly emit NOx and Particulates More efficient engines burned PM10 to PM2.5

Increase in NH3 Daham (2006), Li et al (2006)

Carbon Emissions- How are we doing?

Carbon Emissions How are we doing?

2013 20501990

? 80% of 19902010

1998 20111987

2 Regions 600 links 900 links

Leicester SCOOT database20...

Model change in UK Fleet emissions over time

Flow and Congestion

205067% of 1990

Carbon Emissions 1998-2011

• Traditional emission models - reduction in 2008 of about 10% over 1998

• Complex congestion related emission model - increase of about 3% over 1998 data

• After the recession the complex congestion related emission model – recession fall of 5% over 1998.

Effect of tailpipe emissions on roadside concentrations

Air Quality Monitoring

AURN Cabin

Archive Data Analysis: AURN – Newcastle

Regeneration FiltersPrimary NO2 increases

Euro 3 Diesels Reduce VKT and promote public transport

Engine Technologies In reducing primary NO

Fitted TRAPS Regenerate particle filters

BUT FineParticulates increased

Secondary NO2 dropped

Exacerbated Air Quality

Rhys-Tyler GA, Legassick W, Bell MC (2011).

Increased primary NO2

Futures Project - London (Black Cabs) – NO / Smoke

Particle Traps fitted - elevated emissions NO2

FUTURES project

55,000 tailpipe emissions

London - NO2

Marylebone (outside RUC) Westminister (inside RUC)

Oct 97 – Oct 11

July 01 – Oct 11

Level and Duration increased since ~2005

mg/m3mg/m3

Background versus roadside monitoring

Novel Pervasive MonitoringGateway Mote

Understanding Air Quality

BUS STATION

Provides evidence of the causes of the pollution problems

METRO STATION

OPEN SPACE

AQMA in Newcastle Area

AQMA corridor Canyon: Prevailing wind westerly

Regent Centre

Commuter traffic; School Run; High Bus Frequency; Pedestrian Activity

What can we do?

BUS STATION

METRO STATION

AQMA Newcastle Centre

Pedestrian Activity

High Bus flows and bus stops

High Bus flows into Haymarket Bus Station

Bus-Bus Hub

• 0. Current Transport network for Gosforth

• 1. Bus hub - reduced number buses replaced with electric

• 2. Bus hub ditto with 10% modal shift 07:30- 08:45

• 3. Bus hub ditto with 20% modal shift 07:30 – 08:45

Carbon SavingsScenario 0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

CO2NOxVOCPM

Scenarios

Scenario 0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 317.5

Average Speed comparisons between scenarios

Only 25% contribution against 67% reduction in level over 2010 needed by 2050

Over 4.2km saving of 1minute over a journey of 8.3minutes

Air Quality problem partially addressed

The Challenge

CO2 Emissions – Annual Household Travel and Energy Use

Annual emissions equivalent CO2

ElectricityTravel

575 Households 1527 individuals Energy used in home is 70% higher than saved not using car work

Respondent

50% gross emitters responsible for 96% travel; 60% household energy together 67% reduction at 2010

The Future…..

SECURE: Cycle of Living

Need to understand Inefficiencies

TRANSPORT-Supports every aspect of Living

‘Energy conservation’ policies – Resource Supply Waste Demand?

• Food Miles• Household kerbside

Recycling• Anaerobic Digestion

human waste• Biomass• School policies• etc

Summary

Summary• Scientific Evidence

– Not meeting Air Quality Standards– Not delivering Carbon Targets– Admissions to Hospital and Deaths attributed to traffic

related AQ and Noise• Emissions Control strategies – vehicle tax and Fuel duty

not delivering• Substantial reduction in Vehicle Kilometres necessary

– Every school a good school– Live close to work and Walk to shops– Use public transport or for necessary trips share ride– Adopt eco driving styles for essential journeys

• Sustainable futures rests with ‘doing things differently’

But…………..

For Interest: PM10 Levels in Four Cities

Cycle Taxi Car Motorcycle Minibus BRT Bus Train0

Mumbai

Jakarta

Newcastle

Concluding Remarks• Public Transport Operation should:

– Have symbiotic relationships with other transport systems– Accommodate non-motorised vehicles– Consider CO2 as a metric for performance evaluation

• ITS manage across modes and provide data to: – Inform/educate public– Improve operation– Monitor CO2

However:…….. Address need to travel…….. Land Use……… Education and Social

Thank you for Listening

Questions?

Acknowledgement EPSRC, Newcastle and Medway Councils and Dft, UK for

funding the research presented. Colleagues at the Transport Operations Research Group,

Newcastle University.

• Please take opportunities to reference the research presented. Consult the Reference list on the Personal webpage at the University www.newcastle.ac.uk

• or • Contact Margaret Bell directly.

School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Cassie Building Newcastle UniversityNewcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU

Prof Margaret Bell CBEScience City Professor in Transport and Environment, margaret.bell@ncl.ac.uk

Professor Bell was honoured as CBE, Commander of the British Empire for her services to Sustainable Transport in 2006 and is the Chair of the ITS(UK) Smart Environment Interest Group which was launched at 13th ITS World Congress in London in 2001

Professor Bell’s has almost forty years of research experience which embraces monitoring, modelling and management of traffic, emissions, air quality, noise and exposure; evaluation of health and carbon emissions impacts.

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