The worst

Bled, March 3 2011 Imagining the worstElightened catastrophism

Can we even look at it ?

Apocalypse by modernityIs the worst already there ?

World demography

2

3

World population

European middle age evolution

Combining biological S curves

Exp

an

sion

Saturation

Decline

Creation

stabilization(renaissance)

1100 1300 1500

Demography : simulation 1.8 children/woman limit

Inversion of the age pyramid

maximum then decline

Europe+CEI+Amérique du nord

Amérique du sud

Chine+Japon+Océanie

Inde+Asie sud est+moyen orient

Afrique

Océans, Espace

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

10000000

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 2160 2180 2200

World population

Men Women

Europe

Men Women

Africa

Men Women

Russian Federation

Men Women

Asia

Men Women

Northern America

Men Women

Latin America

Men Women

Global urbanization and demography

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 13

Shrinking cities

DetroitGlasgowLeipzig…

Collapse :Jared

Diamond

Planetary garden

To take care fo natureHumans have to live closeTo nature

The evolution of human species

is worrying

A challenge to reason

What happened ?

In 1953, Martin Heidegger, in an engineering school, talks « Die frage der teknik » :

1- the essence of technology is nothing technical

2- the essence of technology is the being itself

3- the essence of « modern » technologyis the ge-stell

In the most extreme danger also grows salvationInhabit earth as a poet (Hölderlin)

Industrial revolution1750-1980 in Europe

Steel, cement Combustion

Taylorism

Microbiology

Cognitive revolution1980-2180

Polymers Electricity

Optronics

Bio-ecology

Con

verg

ing

Towards a new « essence of technology »

Internet penetration 2010world 28,7%

Au 74,8Fr 68,9Sp 62,6It 51,7Fi 85,3 D 79,1UK 82,5Port 48,1Swe 92,5Isl 97,6Nl 88,6Be 77,8Ir 65,8Dk 86,1

India 6,9Pakistan 10,4Kazakhstan 34,3Indonesia 12,3Thaïland 26,3China 31,6Vietnam 27,1Singapour 77,8Malaisia 64,6Taiwan 70,1Japan 78,2Hong-Kong 68,8Korea 81,1

Venezuela 34,2Mexico 27,2Brazil 37,8Peru 27,0Argentina 64,4Chile 50,0

Canada 77,7USA 77,3

Algeria 13,6Egypt 21,2South Africa 10,8Tunisia 34,0Morocco

33,0

Source : internetworldstats.com

In 2025, more than 75% on the whole planet. Polycultural Internet. Telecom operators challenging banks…

Se 55,9Sk 74,3Sv 64,8Bo 31,2Ro 35,5Po 58,4Cz 65,5 Ru 42,8Gr 43,2Hu 61,8Cr 50Mn 44,1Ma 51Li 59,3Es 75,1La 67,8 Al 43,5

Cyberspace declaration of independance (Barlow, 1996)Governments of the Industrial World, you weary giants of flesh and steel, I come from Cyberspace, the new home of Mind. On behalf of the future, I ask you of the past to leave us alone. You are not welcome among us. You have no sovereignty where we gather.

We have no elected government, nor are we likely to have one, so I address you with no greater authority than that with which liberty itself always speaks. I declare the global social space we are building to be naturally independent of the tyrannies you seek to impose on us. You have no moral right to rule us nor do you possess any methods of enforcement we have true reason to fear.

Governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed. You have neither solicited nor received ours. We did not invite you. You do not know us, nor do you know our world. Cyberspace does not lie within your borders.Libertarians and Tea party…

The time barrier

We are not living in an information society, but in a« disinformation society »

Classical economics assumed that actors were perfectly informed lucid and watchful. The basic assumption being false, the theory is not valid any more

Desorientation is everywhere : Hyperchoice (Toffler), cognitive overload…

Vulnerability of the human brain

TV : less than 1h/day

TV : more than 3h/day

Instability of the 90-2010: 176 crisis during the last 25 years(Stiglitz)MexicoIndonesia ThaïlandKorea and even JapanRussiaArgentina…New techSubprime…

What is the merchant ruling class doing,

since it has unshared power : Bubbles !

Will the next bubbleBe a green one?

A new « essence of technology » ? :

Hannah Arendt (1958) : Persuasion

-> Ge-stell of the consumer’s motivations, storytelling

Web 2.0 (2005) and great software companies (google)

->Ge-stell of the user’s logic

Money overflow : towards world hyperinflation ?

Control of money on politics through media (Murdoch)

-> From democracy to lobbycracy

A large and growing number of products consist of many different components that are manufactured in various parts of the world… The strawberry yogurt… by wuppertal

Trade in intermediates accounts for the largest part of overall trade

Larger supply chains

Long supply chains are more vulnerable

31

From hyper capitalism to mafia capitalism ?

Natural resources looting continue

US Materials Intensity of Use

Ausubel and Langford eds.National Academy, 1997

Global resources scarcity

34

QuickTime™ et undécompresseur

sont requis pour visionner cette image.

36

Temperature increase 1990-2050Business as usual IPCC scenario

Rains and droughts

Business as usual IPCC scenario 2050How many climate refugees ? 200M ?

Hurricanes

Who will stop it ?

Pollutions

Forest destruction between 2002 and 2006Who will protect nature ?

Amazonia, Mato grosso

Epidemias

Other type of rescue and population control

Source : rebuilding america’s defence reportBy « new american century » (2000)

(Donald Kagan, Gary Schmitt, Paul Wolfowitz…)

Will nature protection become the n°1 military concern ?

2 missions in the scealed dome. From 26 september 1991 to 26 september 1993. From march to september 1994

Biosphere 2 : Noah’s arch of the third millenium

How many different species for a stable ecosystem?How many different species for a stable ecosystem?

Whenever youstudy or not,there is no futurefor you…Educated

unemployedAnd hunger riots

Rich and poor people at 100m on the whole planet

The critical times are coming

Thich Quang Duc, 73 years old 11 june 1963…

End of Viet Nam war : 1975It takes a longtime to understand !

1980-2020 : Disarray of the show business society

21st century foresight

Ended by a systemic crisis2010-2020

2020-2060 : Education and public works

21st century foresight

2060-2100 : Planetary (andinterplanetary?)

gardens

21st century foresight

O’Neill’s artificial planets

Declining : Rising :

From heteronomia to autonomia : the values

De WaalSimondonCyrulnik

DominationConquestPerformance

EmpathyIndividuationResilience

Authors :

To Homo Sapiens

Foresight for 21st century

From Homo Coca-colensis

21st century: A challenge to reason

Thanks for your attention