The Study for Karachi Transportation Improvement Project Presentation to Joint Steering Committee on the Interim Report August 1st, 2011 by Mr. Minoru.

The Study for The Study for Karachi Transportation Karachi Transportation

Improvement ProjectImprovement ProjectPresentation to Joint Steering CommitteePresentation to Joint Steering Committee

ononthe Interim Reportthe Interim Report

August 1st, 2011August 1st, 2011by Mr. Minoru Shibuya, Team Leaderby Mr. Minoru Shibuya, Team Leader

JICAJICA ＆＆ KMTC,CDGKKMTC,CDGK

Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

ContentsContents• Introduction

• Socio-economic and Landuse

• Traffic Surveys

• Demand Forecast

• Transport Policy

• The Master Plan

• Implementation

IntroductionIntroduction

The JICA StudyThe JICA Study• Study: Master Plan & F/S of Mass Transit

• Start: April 2010

• Traffic Survey: 40,000 household interview October 5th, 2010 – March 1st, 2011

• Demand Forecast in 2030

• Land Use Plan in 2030

• Road Development Plan in 2030

• Mass Transit Development Plan in 2030

Introduction

Study OrganizationStudy Organization

JICAJICA

JICA Study TeamJICA Study Team KMTC, CDGKKMTC, CDGK

Technical CommitteeTechnical Committee

Joint Steering Committee

Joint Steering Committee

Introduction

ScheduleSchedule

Apr

Dec

May JunDec Feb

Apr May JunJanApr Jul Aug Sep20112010

JanNovApr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Mar

May Jun Mar

Oct

FebOct Nov

I/C

Formulation of Planning Framework Establishment of Master Plan & Selection of F/S Project

1. Review ofPolicies,

DevelopmentPlans and Past

Studies

2. Traffic Surveys

3. Analysis on CurrentSituation

4. Formulation ofPlanning

Framework

5. Traffic Demand Forecast

6. Urban Transport Development Policy

7. Urban Transport Master Plan

8. Implementation Framework for Mass TransitDevelopment

IT/R-1

10.ProjectList for

PossibleJICA

Assistance

P/R-1 P/R-2

9. Priority Mass TransitProject

2. Traffic Surveys

Introduction

Major MeetingsMajor MeetingsIntroduction

Meeting Date Venue

Kickoff Meeting April 15, 2010 P&D, GOS

1st Technical Committee May 12, 2010 CDGK

Town Meeting May 14, 2010Camp Office of Administrator, CDGK

1st Joint Steering Committee May 31, 2010 P&D, GOS

2nd Technical Committee October 6, 2010 CDGK

2nd Joint Steering Committee

October 22, 2010 P&D, GOS

3rd Technical Committee February 2, 2011 CDGK

3rd Joint Steering Committee February 8, 2011 P&D, GOS

Major Activity after 3rd TC & JSCMajor Activity after 3rd TC & JSC• Household Interview Survey • HIS Data analysis (36,000 households)• Demand Forecast • Social Environmental Study

Stakeholder Meeting (3 locations) Interview survey along 5 corridors Key informants interview

• Institutional, O&M analysis• Network Finalization• Evaluation

Introduction

Existing Mass Transit PlanExisting Mass Transit PlanIntroduction

Socio-economic and LanduseSocio-economic and Landuse

PopulationPopulation

15.1

18.9

23.1

27.629.7

31.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mil

lio

n

Projection in KSDP 2020

Projection in KSDP 2020

Projection in KTIP

Projection in KTIP

Present Population

Present Population

Socio-economic and Land use

World Metropolitan PopulationWorld Metropolitan Population

34.3

25.1 24.6 24.1 23.5 22.9 22 20.8 20.218.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40T

ok

yo

Gu

an

gzh

ou

Se

ou

l

De

lhi

Mu

mb

ai

Me

xic

o C

ity

Ne

w Y

ork

Sa

o P

au

lo

Ma

nila

Ja

ka

rta

Mil

lio

n

Karachi in 2030

Source: http://www.citypopulation.de/world/Agglomerations.html

Socio-economic and Land use

Karachi in 2010

Future Population DensityFuture Population DensityLand Use New

urbanized areaExisting urbanized area

Urban area Vacant

Residential 200 Status quo 200

Mix residential 100 Status quo 100

Commercial 500 200/ 500/ 1,000/ 1,500

Mix commercial 1,000 Status quo

Institution 50 Status quo

Industrial 25 50

Max industrial 50 200

Warehouse 25 -

Recreation 5 -

Socio-economic and Land use

Land Use Plan in 2030Land Use Plan in 2030

Gadap

Bin Qasim

Keamari

Malir Cannt

Landhi

SITE

Korangi

Gulshan Iqba

Clifton Cant

Baldia

Malir

Orangi

J amshed

Fasial Cantt

Saddar

Gulberg

New Karachi

Lyari

N.Nazimabad

Shah Faisal

Liaquatabad

Korangi Cant

Karachi Cant

Manora Cantt

Legend

Urbanization border

TownUC_boundary

Land Use Plan 2030<all other values>

LU_2030Residential

Residential(Mix)

Commercial

Commercial(Mix)

Warehouse/Whole Sale Marlet

Institution

Recreation

Industrial

Industrial(Mix)

Agricultural

Restricted Area

VAC

Socio-economic and Land use

Traffic SurveysTraffic Surveys

Household Interview SurveyHousehold Interview Survey• Target sample: 40,000 households• Achievement : 36,000 households (90%)

Backlog survey is suspended due to summer vacation

• Delay due to unstable law and order situation

Traffic Surveys

Trip RateTrip Rate• Average trip rate: 1.3

• Female trip rate is very low

Traffic Surveys

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

5-9

10

-14

15

-19

20

-24

25

-29

30

-34

35

-39

40

-44

45

-49

50

-54

55

-59

60

-64

65

-

male

female

total

Trip Rate

Gender Group

Trip distance and time (average)Trip distance and time (average)• Private mode : 30 min• Public mode: 50 min

• Private mode: 6 km• Bus : 8 km• Rickshaw: 3 km

Traffic Surveys

0.8

2.2

3.2

5.76.3

3.4

5.4

7.7

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Wal

k

Bic

ycle

Ani

mal

Car

t

Mot

orcy

cle

Car

Tax

i/R

icks

haw

Van

/ S

uzuk

i

Bus

km

1217

23

28 3026

36

51

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Wal

k

Bic

ycle

Ani

mal

Car

t

Mot

orcy

cle

Car

Tax

i/R

icks

haw

Van

/ S

uzuk

i

Bus

Minues

Willingness-to-Pay InterviewWillingness-to-Pay InterviewTraffic Surveys

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

No use Rs. 30 Rs. 40 Rs. 60 Rs. 80 Rs. 100

20min by LRT against 20min by minbus at Rs.15

Bus Passengers

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

No use Rs. 30 Rs. 40 Rs. 60 Rs. 80 Rs. 100

20min by LRT against 20min by minibus at Rs.15

Rickshaw Passengers

20 minutesRs. 15

20 minutesRs. ?

Trips by ModeTrips by Mode

805711090 12581

2194

31233608

4088

60317018

5598

8772

10075

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2010 2020 2030

Per

son

Tri

ps

(1,0

00)

Bus

Car

Motorcycle

Walk

Traffic Surveys

Do-Nothing Case in 2030Do-Nothing Case in 2030Traffic Surveys

Legend

Volume

150,000 PCUs

V/C

0 - 0.75

0.75 - 1

1 - 1.2

1.2 - 1.5

1.5 -

Transport PolicyTransport Policy

Goals and VisionGoals and VisionTransport Policy

• Travel in Karachi is no longer stressful.

• Transport capacity satisfies the demand.

• Mass transit is operated.• Road traffic is safe.• Bus service is available in

entire Karachi• Road supports economy

with minimum environmental impact.

Goals/ Vision

Objectives/ Policies

Projects/ Programs

Development PolicyDevelopment Policy• Support the urban development to formulate

the future land use plan

• Enhance the corridors toward development directions

• Effective balance of between road and mass transit in transport sector investment

Transport Policy

Support the Urban DevelopmentSupport the Urban Development

Unit: 000

Population 2010 - 2030

Gadap Town

Bin Qasim TownKeamari Town

Transport Policy

3,078

537

762 518

2010 2020 2030

5,060

2,2902,0322,697

1,914

Enhance the CorridorsEnhance the CorridorsTransport Policy

Effective Balance between Road and Mass TransitEffective Balance between Road and Mass Transit

Transport Policy

CBD

Urbanized Area

New Development Area

Road Development in New Development Area

Mass TransitDevelopmentBetween CBD& Suburban

Road Network PolicyRoad Network Policy• Network development based on KSDP 2020

• Road construction for suburban development

• The 29 Corridors: signal-free corridor

• Ring Roads: Development of Outer Ring Road

• Access to New Cities Construction of Malir Expressway

Transport Policy

Public Transport PolicyPublic Transport Policy• Introduction of mass transit system of higher

level of services than existing buses• Win-win relationship between mass transit

system and the existing buses• KCR development as a Mass Rapid Transit

System• Rail-base mass transit system along priority

corridors to connect the CBD and the suburban area.

• Introduction of Bus Rapid Transit on major roads.

Transport Policy

Mass Transit Network DevelopmentMass Transit Network DevelopmentTransport Policy

Public Transport Development CorridorPublic Transport Development Corridor

Test NetworkTest Network

Full NetworkFull Network

Master Plan NetworkMaster Plan Network

Ideality

necessity

reality

Public Transport Development CorridorPublic Transport Development Corridor

• 9 radial corridors & 2 circulars identified from development policy

Transport Policy

Test NetworkTest NetworkTransport Policy

Full NetworkFull NetworkTransport Policy

Master Plan NetworkMaster Plan NetworkTransport Policy

The Master PlanThe Master Plan

Road Project MapRoad Project Map

R-39

R-1

0

R-24

R-26

0 1 2 3 40.5km

Major Roads by Road Type

0 5 10 15 202.5Km

±

New Expressway

New Highway

New Principal Arterial

New Minor Arterial

Railway

Expressway

Highway

Principal Arterial

Minor Arterial

Collector Street

The Master Plan

Road ProjectsRoad Projects• Expressway

Completion of Lyari Expressway (10km) Construction of Malir Expressway (41km)

• Highway Outer Ring Road (80km) and others

• Arterial Road Access Road to Pakistan Deep Water Container

Port and others (33 projects 306km)

• Overpass, traffic signal, new city road, parking, truck terminal

The Master Plan

Legend

Volume150,000 PCUs

V/C0 - 0.75

0.75 - 1

1 - 1.2

1.2 - 1.5

1.5 -

Impact of Road Projects in 2030Impact of Road Projects in 2030The Master Plan

Legend

Volume150,000 PCUs

V/C0 - 0.75

0.75 - 1

1 - 1.2

1.2 - 1.5

1.5 -

Do-Nothing in 2030

With Road Projects in 2030

Public Transport ProjectsPublic Transport Projects• KCR (43.1km) and Extension (14.5 km)• Railway (Elevated LRT)

Blue Line (Tower- Super Highway): 22.4km Brown Line (Nagan Chowk - Landhi): 18.5km

• BRT (surface) Green Line (KMTS Corridor-3) Red Line (University Road) Yellow Line (Korangi Industrial Area) Aqua Line (Hawks bay Road) Purple Line (KMTS Corridor-6) Orange Line (KMTS Corridor-3 branch)

The Master Plan

Passenger Volume 2030Passenger Volume 2030The Master Plan

Maximum Section per directionBoarding per day ‘000

Passenger-km (million per day)Day Peak

KCR 290,000 21,700 505 16.3

KCR Extension 412,000 30,900 487 8.7

Blue Line 357,000 27,000 661 10.9

Brown Line 286,000 21,500 736 8.8

Yellow Line 235,000 17,600 653 6.0

Green Line 244,000 18,300 432 4.9

Red Line 144,000 10,800 355 4.0

Orange Line 247,000 18,500 397 2.2

Purple Line 53,000 4,000 83 0.6

Aqua Line 330,000 24,700 449 2.2

Legend

Volume150,000 PCUs

V/C0 - 0.75

0.75 - 1

1 - 1.2

1.2 - 1.5

1.5 -

Impact of Master PlanImpact of Master PlanLegend

Volume

150,000 PCUs

V/C

0 - 0.75

0.75 - 1

1 - 1.2

1.2 - 1.5

1.5 -

Do-Nothing in 2030

Master Plan in 2030

The Master Plan

Cost EstimateCost EstimateThe Master Plan

Type System Cost (Rs. Billion)

Railway

KCR 172.0

KCR-Extension 51.2

Blue-Line 168.6

Brown-Line 106.9

Sub total 498.6

BRT Surface transit 21.0

Road 170.9

Total 690.5

KCR (43.1km)KCR (43.1km)The Master Plan

Rail-base SystemRail-base System

Tokyo

Tokyo

Bangkok

Delhi

The Master Plan

BRTBRT

PPP-Study cover

Istanbul

Curitiba

The Master Plan

ImplementationImplementation

Short-term ProposalShort-term Proposal

- Modernization of Bus Fleet- Increase in the number of buses

- Modernization of Bus Fleet- Increase in the number of buses

- Introduction of BRT- Introduction of BRT

- Introduction of MRT- Introduction of MRT

11

22

33

Implementation

InstitutionalCapacity

Short-term NetworkShort-term NetworkImplementation

F/S Project - BackgroundF/S Project - Background• JICA will support KCR by technical

corporation and soft loan. KCR is a large project for JICA, and requires a

large scale resources including man power.

• Underground has been proposed for MRT, which increase the cost. MRT is difficult to be implemented in parallel with

KCR.

• MRT is a 10 year project (the city cannot wait)• Step-by-step capacity development from small

project is proposed for the transit authority.

Implementation

Economic Analysis (Railway Case)Economic Analysis (Railway Case)Implementation

Line as MRT EIRR

Green Line 11.8%

Blue Line 12.4%

Red Line 10.9%

Brown Line 12.9%

Yellow Line 10.0%

* Without case: KCR and its Extension

F/S ProjectF/S Project• Green Line

Surjani - Board Office (12.7km) Additional study section

• Board Office – Guru Mandir (5.8 km)

• Red Line University Road – Malir Town (19.1km) Additional study section

• Mazar Area – Jahangir Park

• Blue Line (preliminary analysis) Short-term measures until MRT construction

Implementation

BRT Example: Trans JakartaBRT Example: Trans Jakarta

Exclusive Busway

Station

BRT LaneRoadway

Implementation

Karachi Transportation Karachi Transportation Improvement ProjectImprovement Project

June 23th, 2011June 23th, 2011

Thank you very much!Thank you very much!