The Road to the 2012 U.S. National Elections

The Road to the 2012 U.S. National Elections

The Public’s Interest

Average # of Viewers (Millions)

Source: Nielsen Media Research. GOP Data: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/17/business/media/republican-debates-are-a-hot-ticket-on-tv.html?pagewanted=all,

American Idol 29.3Dancing with the Stars 18.42 Broke Girls 19.2

2012 Florida GOP Debate 5.4

O’Reilly 3.6 Fox News 2.7

Rachel Maddow 0.4

The Republican Nomination Contest

Iowa Caucus 6.5 %

New Hampshire Primary 31.1

South Carolina Primary 17.6

Florida Primary 12.8

Nevada Caucus 1.9

Minnesota Caucus* 1.2

Colorado Caucus 1.8

Missouri Primary 7.4

Maine Caucus* .5

Normal People

Uninformed, Confused, Ambivalent

(Busy)

Not Extreme, Pragmatic, Not Ideological

Political Overreach

• Lyndon Johnson 1964-1966-1968

• Jimmy Carter 1976-1980

• Bill Clinton 1992-94

• Newt Gingrich 1994-96

• George W. Bush 2004-2006-2008

• Barack Obama 2008-2010-?

George W. Bush

“I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it.” (2004)

“On social security, I may have misread the electoral mandate …” (2010)

“… generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children … that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs for the jobless; this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.”

Barack Obama, June 4, 2008

Ray Fair ModelRay Fair Model

GOODNEWS: Number of quarters of an administration in which the growth rate of real per capita GDP is greater than 3.2 percent at annual rate

GOODNEWS

VOTE

VOTE: Republican share of two-party

presidential vote in election

The vote equation for 2012 is then: VOTE = C + .B*GROWTH - .B*INFLATION + B*GOODNEWS

Obama as Divider

Average R approval Average D approval Gap

Obama year 2 13 percent 83 percent 70%

Obama Year 3 12 percent 84 percent 72%

Democrats will vote Obama Republicans will vote Romney

Independents will decide who wins presidency

Party Identification

Gallup Most Important Problem(June 2012)

Economy (General) 31 %

Unemployment 25

Government 12

Federal Budget Deficit 11

Healthcare 6

Lack of money 5

Ethical / Moral decline 4

Education 4

Is economy getting better

How is the economy:depends on who you ask

October 1,2012

"Mitt Romney was seen as better able to handle the economy, taxes, and the budget deficit among the debate audience, but it seems that issues were trumped, or at least blunted, by intangibles, including the expectations game," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

April 15

Pre –post debate shift

2008: Obama 365, McCain 173

MA-12MT-3

WA-11

OR-7

CA-54

NV-4

ID-4

UT-5

NM-5AZ-8

WY-3

CO-8

NE-5

SD-3

ND-3

OK-8

KS-6

TX-32LA-9

AR-6

MO-11

IA-7

MN-10

IL-22

WI -11

IN-12

KY-8

TN-11

MS-7 AL-9

SC-8

GA-13

FL-25

NC-14

VA-13WV-5

OH-21

PA-23

NY-33

ME-4VT-3

RI-4

CT-8NJ-15

DE-3

MD-10

DC-3

HI-4

AK-3

MI-18

NH-4

ObamaMcCain

Strategy & the 2008 Electoral CollegeStrategy & the 2008 Electoral College

Changed Electorate 08-2012

Minority voters (80% Obama) UP 3% from 2008

White working class (41% Obama) DOWN from 2008 by 3%

Examples: Nevada minority vote UP 9% from 08While white working class is DOWN 5%Wisconsin : minorities UP 3% white working class

DOWN 7%

MT

OR-7

CA-55

NV

ID-4

UT-5

NM

AZ

WY-3

CO

NE-5

ND-3

OK-7

KS-6

TX-34LA-9

AR-6

MO-11

IA

MN-10

IL-21

WI

IN

TN-11

MS-6 AL-9

SC-8

GA-15

FL

NC

VAWV-5

OH

PA

NY-31

NH-

Strategy & the 2012 Electoral CollegeStrategy & the 2012 Electoral CollegeThe battleground states for 2012

3

-4

3

5

6

4

-27

8

2

-5

--

6-2

-4

8

Congressional Elections

The end

The end

Betting pools House

Betting pools Senate

The End Thank You

MA-12MT-3

OR-7

CA-55

NV-6

ID-4

UT-5

NM-5AZ-10

WY-3

CO-9

NE-5

SD-3

ND-3

OK-7

KS-6

TX-38LA-9

AR-6

MO-10

IA-6

MN-10

IL-21

WI -10

IN-11

KY-8

TN-11

MS-6 AL-9

SC-8

GA-15

FL-29

NC-15

VA-13

OH-18

PA-20

NY-31

ME-4VT-3

RI-4

CT-7NJ-15

DE-3

MD-10

DC-3

HI-4

AK-3

MI-17

NH-4

Best Hopes for Changes from 2008-2012

Wash 11

WV

MA-12MT-3

OR-7

CA-55

NV-5

ID-4

UT-5

NM-5AZ-10

WY-3

CO-9

NE-5

SD-3

ND-3

OK-7

KS-6

TX-34LA-9

AR-6

MO-11

IA-7

MN-10

IL-21

WI -10

IN-11

KY-8

TN-11

MS-6 AL-9

SC-8

GA-15

FL-27

NC-15

VA-13

OH-20

PA-21

NY-31

ME-4VT-3

RI-4

CT-7NJ-15

DE-3

MD-10

DC-3

HI-4

AK-3

MI-17

NH-4

Electoral College 2008

Wash 11

WV

• I was just going over the primary rules and polls today, and I noticed• >> that Romney has a huge advantage in the Winner Take All primaries• >> (Arizona, California, Florida, New Jersey, Utah). They account for• >> 375 delegates, and he leads (or has won) in almost all of these WTA• >> states. If he stays up in the polls in those states (as he currently• >> is) it will be very hard for Santorum to catch Romney in delegates,• >> even if Santorum wins a larger share of the vote in the primaries.• >> What are the chances that Santorum beats Romney in California?• >>• >> In this respect, the GOP primaries resemble the Gary Hart v. Walter• >> Mondale contest.

WAR

WAR