The Road to the 2012 U.S. National Elections
Dec 31, 2015
The Road to the 2012 U.S. National Elections
The Public’s Interest
Average # of Viewers (Millions)
Source: Nielsen Media Research. GOP Data: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/17/business/media/republican-debates-are-a-hot-ticket-on-tv.html?pagewanted=all,
American Idol 29.3Dancing with the Stars 18.42 Broke Girls 19.2
2012 Florida GOP Debate 5.4
O’Reilly 3.6 Fox News 2.7
Rachel Maddow 0.4
The Republican Nomination Contest
Iowa Caucus 6.5 %
New Hampshire Primary 31.1
South Carolina Primary 17.6
Florida Primary 12.8
Nevada Caucus 1.9
Minnesota Caucus* 1.2
Colorado Caucus 1.8
Missouri Primary 7.4
Maine Caucus* .5
Normal People
Uninformed, Confused, Ambivalent
(Busy)
Not Extreme, Pragmatic, Not Ideological
Political Overreach
• Lyndon Johnson 1964-1966-1968
• Jimmy Carter 1976-1980
• Bill Clinton 1992-94
• Newt Gingrich 1994-96
• George W. Bush 2004-2006-2008
• Barack Obama 2008-2010-?
George W. Bush
“I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it.” (2004)
“On social security, I may have misread the electoral mandate …” (2010)
“… generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children … that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs for the jobless; this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.”
Barack Obama, June 4, 2008
Ray Fair ModelRay Fair Model
GOODNEWS: Number of quarters of an administration in which the growth rate of real per capita GDP is greater than 3.2 percent at annual rate
GOODNEWS
VOTE
VOTE: Republican share of two-party
presidential vote in election
The vote equation for 2012 is then: VOTE = C + .B*GROWTH - .B*INFLATION + B*GOODNEWS
Obama as Divider
Average R approval Average D approval Gap
Obama year 2 13 percent 83 percent 70%
Obama Year 3 12 percent 84 percent 72%
Democrats will vote Obama Republicans will vote Romney
Independents will decide who wins presidency
Party Identification
Gallup Most Important Problem(June 2012)
Economy (General) 31 %
Unemployment 25
Government 12
Federal Budget Deficit 11
Healthcare 6
Lack of money 5
Ethical / Moral decline 4
Education 4
Is economy getting better
How is the economy:depends on who you ask
October 1,2012
"Mitt Romney was seen as better able to handle the economy, taxes, and the budget deficit among the debate audience, but it seems that issues were trumped, or at least blunted, by intangibles, including the expectations game," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
April 15
Pre –post debate shift
2008: Obama 365, McCain 173
MA-12MT-3
WA-11
OR-7
CA-54
NV-4
ID-4
UT-5
NM-5AZ-8
WY-3
CO-8
NE-5
SD-3
ND-3
OK-8
KS-6
TX-32LA-9
AR-6
MO-11
IA-7
MN-10
IL-22
WI -11
IN-12
KY-8
TN-11
MS-7 AL-9
SC-8
GA-13
FL-25
NC-14
VA-13WV-5
OH-21
PA-23
NY-33
ME-4VT-3
RI-4
CT-8NJ-15
DE-3
MD-10
DC-3
HI-4
AK-3
MI-18
NH-4
ObamaMcCain
Strategy & the 2008 Electoral CollegeStrategy & the 2008 Electoral College
Changed Electorate 08-2012
Minority voters (80% Obama) UP 3% from 2008
White working class (41% Obama) DOWN from 2008 by 3%
Examples: Nevada minority vote UP 9% from 08While white working class is DOWN 5%Wisconsin : minorities UP 3% white working class
DOWN 7%
MT
OR-7
CA-55
NV
ID-4
UT-5
NM
AZ
WY-3
CO
NE-5
ND-3
OK-7
KS-6
TX-34LA-9
AR-6
MO-11
IA
MN-10
IL-21
WI
IN
TN-11
MS-6 AL-9
SC-8
GA-15
FL
NC
VAWV-5
OH
PA
NY-31
NH-
Strategy & the 2012 Electoral CollegeStrategy & the 2012 Electoral CollegeThe battleground states for 2012
3
-4
3
5
6
4
-27
8
2
-5
--
6-2
-4
8
Congressional Elections
The end
The end
Betting pools House
Betting pools Senate
The End Thank You
MA-12MT-3
OR-7
CA-55
NV-6
ID-4
UT-5
NM-5AZ-10
WY-3
CO-9
NE-5
SD-3
ND-3
OK-7
KS-6
TX-38LA-9
AR-6
MO-10
IA-6
MN-10
IL-21
WI -10
IN-11
KY-8
TN-11
MS-6 AL-9
SC-8
GA-15
FL-29
NC-15
VA-13
OH-18
PA-20
NY-31
ME-4VT-3
RI-4
CT-7NJ-15
DE-3
MD-10
DC-3
HI-4
AK-3
MI-17
NH-4
Best Hopes for Changes from 2008-2012
Wash 11
WV
MA-12MT-3
OR-7
CA-55
NV-5
ID-4
UT-5
NM-5AZ-10
WY-3
CO-9
NE-5
SD-3
ND-3
OK-7
KS-6
TX-34LA-9
AR-6
MO-11
IA-7
MN-10
IL-21
WI -10
IN-11
KY-8
TN-11
MS-6 AL-9
SC-8
GA-15
FL-27
NC-15
VA-13
OH-20
PA-21
NY-31
ME-4VT-3
RI-4
CT-7NJ-15
DE-3
MD-10
DC-3
HI-4
AK-3
MI-17
NH-4
Electoral College 2008
Wash 11
WV
• I was just going over the primary rules and polls today, and I noticed• >> that Romney has a huge advantage in the Winner Take All primaries• >> (Arizona, California, Florida, New Jersey, Utah). They account for• >> 375 delegates, and he leads (or has won) in almost all of these WTA• >> states. If he stays up in the polls in those states (as he currently• >> is) it will be very hard for Santorum to catch Romney in delegates,• >> even if Santorum wins a larger share of the vote in the primaries.• >> What are the chances that Santorum beats Romney in California?• >>• >> In this respect, the GOP primaries resemble the Gary Hart v. Walter• >> Mondale contest.
WAR
WAR