The Punctuated Equilibrium of the Energy Regime Complex Lauren Bleakney PEI Grand Energy Challenge.

The Punctuated Equilibrium of the Energy

Regime ComplexLauren Bleakney

PEI Grand Energy Challenge

Sponsorship and Overview

Woodrow Wilson School

Robert O. Keohane, Jeff D. Colgan, Thijs Van de Graaf

Goal: Contribute data and analysis to pre-publication scholarly article on the evolution of the energy regime complex

Energy Regime Complex

What is a regime complex? Collection of organizations governing the

trade and norms in a sector (here: energy trade, specifically oil)

Organizations involved in the regime complex: OPEC, IRENA, IAEA, OECD, IEA, G7, IEF, ECT, IPEEC, Oil exporters and importers

Measuring Dissatisfaction

Differentiate between dissatisfaction of Importers and dissatisfaction of Exporters

Dissatisfaction measured in change in oil prices, expressed as percent change from previous year

Level of dissatisfaction (magnitude of price change) determines response

Institutional Responses to Dissatisfaction

The creation of new organizations and links between organizations

The inclusion of major new members—that is, members with the potential to reshape the organization

Major internal structural changes, such as new operational units or significant changes in voting weights

Structure of Innovation

Importer Dissatisfaction: 1973-4

1973-1974 OPEC Producing 53.9% of total world output

Preceded by nationalization of oil in much of MENA

1974 oil revenues increase by 191%

Western response: establishment of IEA; Strategic Petroleum Reserve G7 OLADE

“Sticky” lagging innovation: Efficiency Shift to Coal

Importer Dissatisfaction: 2003-2010

Oil revenues increased every year from 2003-2010, excepting 2009

IPEEC (International Partnership for Energy Efficiency Cooperation) established

IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency) established

My Focus: OPEC

Periods of OPEC Dissatisfaction

1980s, dissatisfaction peaking in 1986 Heterogeneous production preferences Reform driven by Saudi Arabia - flooded market Switch to production quotas (from price setting)

1998 OPEC tightens adherence to production quotas Restricts total production Forges relationships with non-OPEC actors:

Russia, EU

2010 Still to be seen

Additional Findings

The role of Saudi Arabia as a unilateral actor within OPEC

Failed attempts at linkages between OPEC and EU, Russia, China

OPEC as a blame-shifting institution Shifts blame to Member Countries Shifts blame to importing countries and non-OPEC

exporters Rhetoric of antagonistic relationship between developed

and developing countries

Skills and Knowledge Gained

Institutional innovation; OPEC; Global Economy

Use of Princeton library, personnel, and database resources

Incorporation of quantitative analysis into social science studies

Improved analytical abilities and argument-mapping

Time management