1 Policy change & the punctuated equilibrium theory A longitudinal study of clean air policy-change in Sweden during 2011–2019 Gustaf Borelius Bachelor’s thesis, 15 credits Department of Government Political Science C, Autumn 2020 Supervisor: Andreas Gottardis Word count: 13 941 Pages: 44
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1
Policy change &
the punctuated equilibrium theory
A longitudinal study of clean air policy-change in Sweden during
Introduction Understanding how policies change and why has become a central topic in the study of public
policy in political science. The process of politics in general and public policymaking in
particular involves complex systems of interacting actors with different preferences, goals,
and ideas, operating within sometimes constraining and other times enabling institutional and
normative environments. We know for a fact that policies do undergo changes, sometimes
rather small and trivial but at other times in revolutionary ways that significantly affects large
numbers of people. How are we to make sense of these intricate and interactive processes of
how policies undergo change? Luckily, there are theories that, much like a burning torch,
allow us to navigate in the fog and the bog of the policy-process. One such, the punctuated
equilibrium theory, leads us to think that policy processes are generally characterized by
incrementalism - minimal change to existing policies. However, the stability, or equilibrium,
of this process can on rare occasions be “punctuated” due to an exogenous shock such as e.g
an economic crisis or a nuclear meltdown. The result of this puncture is theorized to lead to
rapid and dramatic change in public policy. With this in mind, it not only becomes interesting
to descriptively study how policy changes over time, but also to link this potential change (or
absence of change) in policy to expectations derived from the punctuated equilibrium theory,
in order to assess how it “holds up”.
While this theory encompasses policy change in very broad terms, meaning the
incremental/punctuated pattern is thought to explain policy dynamics in everything from
health care to international trade policy, some areas seem especially fruitful. One of them -
environmental policy, has been hinted at to provide fertile ground for the broader study of
policy change, and for relating the findings to the punctuated equilibrium theory.1 Moreover,
the dynamics of environmental policy is by no means irrelevant outside the literature or
discipline. Gaining an understanding of the patterns of policy change in general, and
environmental policy in particular, can be of utmost importance to policy makers, climate
activists, corporations, and in the end therefore even to the environment itself. For example,
this knowledge could possibly make policy entrepreneurs ask how to position themselves or
act if a punctuation seems likely, in order to either maximize or counteract the cascading
effects of its nature.
1 Baumgartner, Frank M. 2006 . Punctuated Equilibrium Theory and Environmental Polic y, s.24-46 i Repetto &
Gustave Speth (red), Punctuated Equilibrium and the Dynamics of U.S. Environmental Policy. Yale University Press. s.24, 43f
4
Furthermore, since the literature has been heavily anglo-centric and federalism-favoured, it is
interesting to examine if these theorized patterns hold true in underexplored contexts such as
the Swedish case. It might also be compelling to study environmental policy in Sweden,
among other policy areas, as it may sometimes be greatly influenced by decisions and
ambitions on an EU-level. This provides a rather unique context of measuring policy change
where the policymaking is dyed in both “the national” and “the international”. With this in
mind, the study will seek to examine environmental policy change in Sweden, with a focus
on clean air-policy. This is because it is thought to be a typical case of environmental policy
and thus widely representative of environmental policy in general. Because of the nature of
clean air-policy in general still being very extensive, due to the fact that air pollution is a
phenomenon that stems from a very large variety of causes and measures for these causes,
this study will specifically limit itself to studying traffic-related change in clean air-policy.
Traffic will henceforth be understood in the context of motor-traffic, i.e “on the road”,
thereby excluding air and maritime traffic.
1.1 Main Purpose & Research Question
This study has three explicit purposes. The first purpose is to respond to one of the
heavyweights in the litterature - Frank M. Baumtgartner, and his invitation for further
intensive analysis on the process of policy change, thereby further closing the (albeit slight)
gap between quantitative and qualitative studies on the subject.2 The second purpose of this
study is to apply an improved theoretical framework of capturing the elements of policy
change, in order to give a more empirically nuanced and methodologically valid view of the
phenomenon compared to much of the previous literature on policy dynamics. The third and
final purpose will be to relate the empirical findings to those hypothesized by one of the
dominant theories of policy change - the punctuated equilibrium theory, in order to produce a
descriptive contribution to the literature regarding the explanatory capacity (or lack thereof)
the theory provides. By doing so it could also inspire future research to focus on the causality
of the findings, further putting the theory to the test.
In order to attain these three purposes, this study will attempt to answer the following two
research questions:
In which ways has Swedish clean air policy changed or not changed over time?
2 Baumgartner, Frank M. 2006. s.37ff
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To what extent can the change and/or absence of change of the Swedish clean air policy be
linked to expectations derived from the punctuated equilibrium theory?
1.2 Demarcations, Method, & Time Span
As mentioned in the introduction of this study, a demarcation of this study will focus on
traffic-related policy change in clean air-policy. This has been done because of feasibility
reasons, stemming from the fact that the causes of air pollution, and therefore the means and
ends of clean air-policy, are large and thus any attempt at intensively approximating an
exhaustive account of clean air-policy in any “broad” fashion would be too time consuming.
Furthermore, choosing to study clean air-policy with a specific focus on pollution caused by
traffic was based on the idea that it would serve as a typical and therefore representative case
of clean air-policy in general. This line of thinking stems from the fact that traffic-related
pollution should be suitable since it is (and for a very long time has been) one of the most
significant sources of pollution and therefore obstacles for attaining cleaner air.3
The method utilized in this study can be summed up as a longitudinal text analysis, with the
point of departure regarding material being on analyzing annual reports of the Swedish
Environmental Agency on their assessments of the environmental quality objectives
(miljömålen). In addition to these annual reports, complementary materials such as various
relevant governmental bills, reports, and EU-documents will be employed and analyzed as
seen fit. This text-analysis will be conducted by using an analytical framework developed by
Cashore & Howlett, that enables us to capture the elements of policy from our material in a
systematic way to then asess possible changes. This is important because it gives us the
prerequisites to answer our first research question, as well as link our results to the broader
theory of the punctuated equilibrium theory - thereby also enabling an answer to our second
research question.
Because this framework focuses on the more abstract ends or aims of a policy, as well as the
means or tools for attaining them (as will be shown later); anchoring this study primarily in
these mentioned annual reports is suitable as their purpose is to “present an overview of the
3 Naturvårdsverket. 2019. Frisk luft - underlagsrapport till den fördjupade utvärderingen av miljömålen (ISBN
978-91-620-6861-5). s.33
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aims of the environmental aims” and to “assess how the efforts (to attain these aims) is
progressing”.4
The time frame of this study covers the period 2011-2019, being selected based on theoretical
considerations derived from the punctuated equilibrium theory (which is explained more in
depth in the section of research design), as well as the insights that any analysis of policy
development often requires studying a period of at least several years.5
1.3 Disposition
The continued disposition of this study will be as follows. Firstly, a theoretical introduction
of policy change in general will be introduced, followed by a specific exposition of the
punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) of policy change and some expectations we can derive
from it. Following this, a review of previous research on the punctuated equilibrium theory of
policy change will be presented, as well as some problems that plague the study of policy
change in general. Subsequently, an operationalization section will present an analytical
framework that demonstrates how to empirically capture the components of a policy, and
therefore give us a tool for measuring policy change over time. Added to that, a smaller
analytical framework will be presented that lets us assess the mode (or degree) of policy
change through an interplay between its tempo and direction.
The third section of this study will cover the general methodology of the study, starting with
an overview and selection and motivation of case. Followed by this will be an in-depth
coverage on the chosen research design and its limitations, as well as a short methodological
discussion on alternate routes that could’ve been chosen instead. In the fourth and last
section, the results, analysis, and conclusion of this study will take place.
The results start off by using the main framework of this study (the one by Cashore and
Howlett) in order to map out the components of clean air policy in 2011. It will then be
attempted to trace how these components undergo change during the years, again through text
analysis of mainly annual governmental reports, leading up until 2019. After summarizing
how the clean air-policy has undergone change throughout this time span, an analysis with
4 Naturvårdsverket 2012 Steg på vägen - Fördjupad utvärdering av miljömålen 2012 (ISBN 978-91-620-6500-3)
s.3
5 Cashore, Benjamin & Howlett, Michael, 2009. The Dependent Variable Problem in the study of Policy Change:
Understanding Policy Change as a Methodological Problem. Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis 11(1): 33-46. s.35
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the help of the second analytical framework will be used in an attempt to classify the mode of
the policy change. Note that at this point, the first research question will have been answered.
Lastly, a discussion regarding the results and analysis will be conducted, mainly by relating it
to the punctuated equilibrium theory and its expectations of how the policy should have
undergone change. Thus the second research question should have been answered.
Theory - Policy Change and the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory 2.1.0 Brief Overview of Theories and Measurement of Policy Change
The study of policy change can be treated as a core area of public policy, with a large interest
in the description and explanation of changes in dominant policy patterns across different
fields.6 In the contemporary literature, there are several ways in which policy change can be
measured, and multiple theories on why policy change does (or does not) occur; and so far,
none of the approaches has achieved the position as dominant or generally accepted.7
The theories of how and why policy change occurs can be can according to Knill & Tosun be
classified in accordance with their underlying causal logic.8 In their summary, there are on
the one hand approaches that are anchored in a “linear-additive” view of causality, where a
clear distinction between independent and dependent variables is assumed; where
independent variables mostly refer to macro-factors such as changes in government, socio-
economic conditions, strength of societal interest groups, and so on.9 On the other hand, there
are approaches based on a logic of “combinative causality'', where possible combinations of
causal conditions able to generate a specific result are searched for.10
Theories with the underlying “combinative causality” logic for explaining policy change are
generally characterized for being inclusive in integrating structures, institutions, and actors,
although they often place specific emphasis on certain explanatory factors.11 The punctuated
equilibrium theory can be categorized as a theory with the “combinative causality” approach,
with a specific emphasis on institutional factors, as will be seen below.
6 Knill, Christoph & Tosun, Jale 2012. Public Policy: A New Introduction. London: Palgrave Macmillan. s.251
7 Knill & Tosun, 2012. s.251
8 Knill & Tosun, 2012. s.252
9 Knil & Tosun, 2012. s.252
10 Knill & Tosun, 2012. s.252
11 Knill & Tosun, 2012. s.253
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There are also several ways to go about measuring policy change, with frameworks
developed by e.g Sabaiter and Jenkins-smith that can be summarized as distinguishing
between changes in core beliefs and changes in secondary aspects, with core beliefs being
more difficult than secondary aspects to attain (thus indicating a paradigmatic policy
change)12. However, in the study of policy change in relation to the punctuated equilibrium
theory, a framework for measuring policy change developed by Peter Hall has been very
popular - being the most often cited in the litterature and applied in empirical studies.
However, due to having issues such as conflating the elements of the dependent variable
(amongst other things), Cashore & Howlett developed a framework based upon Hall’s, which
serve as the instrument of measurement for this study. An overview of these issues, as well as
Cashore & Howlett’s framework, will be covered in the operationalization section later.
2.1.1 - Overview of the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory of Policy change
The punctuated equilibrium theory was originally developed by Baumgartner & Jones, and
strives to explain why political and policy processes usually are characterized by stability and
incrementalism - an absence of noteworthy change from the status quo; but on rare occasions
produce dramatic shifts away from this status quo.13 It is an attempt to combine the two most
historically prominent streams of thinking in policy dynamics, Charles Lindblom’s work on
incrementalism in 1959 and Peter Hall’s study of policy paradigms in 1989, breaking the long
term orthodoxy of incrementalism.14 To begin with, the PET can be broken down into two
central components that are fundamental in explaining the duality of change in the policy
process: a positive and a negative feedback system.
The negative feedback system’s most important feature is that it can be described as
containing a self-correcting mechanism that works to maintain stability in a political system.
Similarly to Isaac Newton’s third law of motion, the self correcting mechanism reacts in the
opposite way of external pressures trying to induce policy change, counterbalancing the push
for change and thus works in maintaining the often prevailing status quo (and keeping the
policy change in a form of an equilibrium).15 The PET is built on the idea that policymaking
12 Knill & Tosun, 2012. s.260
13 Knill & Tosun, 2012. s.111, 255f
14 Cashore & Howlett, 2009. s.34
15 Baumgartner, Frank R. & Jones, Bryan D. 2002. Policy Dynamics. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
s.8f; van der Heijden, Jeroen & Kuhlmann, Johanna, 2018. What Is Known about Punctuated Equilibrium
9
is mainly conducted in policy subsystems, outside the world of high politics; where these
subsystems are defined as institutional arenas with capacity to handle many policy issues
routinely, and are populated by experts, bureaucrats, and interest groups.16 These policy
subsystems, also called policy monopolies, are in situations of negative feedback dominated
by a stable set of policy images, that is, certain norms and ideas that limit how policy issues
can be discussed.17 In addition to policy images, there are in the context of negative feedback
given institutional arenas where policymaking takes place, in the litterature often called
policy venues, that limit who can and cannot participate in the policy debate.18 In situations
where policy image remains stable, or at least resistant to radical rethinking because of the
self correcting nature of the political system; coupled with policy venues in which
institutional rules are clear in structuring who can be seen as a legitimate participant in the
policymaking process and who can be defined as an outsider, we should expect stable policy
monopolies and therefore an incremental patterns of policy change.19
However, these policy monopolies, though resistant to destabilization, are not invincible.
Through exogenous events (also called external shocks or perturbations), which according to
Knill & Tosun bears the highest potential to alter both policy venues and images, stable
policy monopolies can be broken.20
It is e.g through shining a strong light (which cannot be ignored) on a certain dimension of a
policy that has previously been ignored or underemphasized by the prevailing policy image
that these external shocks may cause a shift in the policy monopoly. This results in a
punctuation, creating opportunities for both new actors to make legitimate claims of taking
part in existing policy venues, which leads to an introduction of new considerations of norms
and ideas regarding the policy issues (a redefinition of the policy image), which again can
lead to even further opportunity for new actors to enter the policy venue, and so on... It is this
Theory? And What Does That Tell Us about the Construction Validation, and Replication of Knowledge in the Policy Sciences? The Review of policy research 35(2): 326-347. s.328f
16 Jennings, Farrall, Gray, & Hay, 2020. Moral Panics and Punctuated Equilibrium in Public Policy: An Analysis of
the Criminal Justice Policy Agenda in Britain. Policy Studies Journal 48(1): 207-234, s.209
self-perpetuating process that has been coined the positive feedback mechanism, and it can
lead to a cascading and explosive (often called paradigmatic) change of the policies
themselves, through this destabilization of the policy monopoly. A hypothetical example of
this could be for instance nuclear energy policy undergoing dramatic change through a
nuclear reactor meltdown. Before this exogenous event, the prevailing policy image may be
viewing nuclear energy in terms of cost-effectiveness and reliable energy production.
However, after this event the policy image may undergo a dramatic shift to nuclear energy
being hazardous to both humans and the environment, paving way for new actors, such as e.g
anti-nuclear environmentalists, to claim seats in the policy venue. As previously explained,
we now have fertile conditions for a positive feedback process to take place, and in the
context mentioned above it could probably lead to anything from tightened restrictions and
safety protocols to plans of a full out decommissioning of nuclear power plants in a country.
policy image thought to change before policy venue, even though venue as can be seen can
change policy image.
From the punctuated equilibrium theory, we can derive the following expectations or
hypothises from the nature of the policy change, which we later can attempt to compare
empirically:
- Incremental change should be the dominant form of policy change in the absence of
an exogenous event
- If an exogenous event takes place, paradigmatic policy change should take
precedence and follow relatively close in time
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2.2 Previous Research on the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory of Policy Change
Previous research on studying and exploring punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) in policy
change have been quite vibrant. There has been much empirical support that change in
policies in the long run generally follow the patterns of positive (paradigmatic) and negative
(incremental) feedback that the PET theorizes. In an anthology of essays edited by Frank R.
Baumgartner & Brian Jones (the original architects of the PET-approach), with the
collaborating scholars using a then previously unprecedented data set, the authors draw the
general conclusions that their essays have introduced a great variety of evidence in support of
the ideas that government responses to public policy have been subject to positive and
negative feedback processes in the American context (in other words, support for the
punctuated equilibrium theory).21 As seen below, studies have discovered this to be the case
in other nations, and in fact, findings have even emerged that policy making even on the
international level exhibits policy change patterns consistent with the punctuated equilibria
approach.22
In a meta-review conducted by Kuhlmann & van der Heijden regarding the application of the
punctuated equilibrium theory on policy change, amongst other things two interesting
findings can be observed. Firstly, they find that studies focusing on the United States are
dominant in the field and making up 59% of publications.23 Outside of the U.S, Anglo
countries, especially the UK, make up a substantial remainder of studies (14%); however,
PET is gaining traction in studying policy change in other european countries as well, such as
Denmark (10%) and Belgium (9%).24 Kuhlmann & van der Heijden also finds that from the
86 articles part of the sample, 25 of them explicitly test hypotheses derived from the
punctuated equilibrium theory, where 17 of these studies confirm, 6 of them partially
confirm, and 2 of them do not confirm theoretical expectations.25
21 Baumgartner, Frank R. & Jones, Bryan D. 2002. Policy Dynamics. s.291
22 Lundgren, Magnus; Squatrito, Theresa, & Tallberg, Jonas, 2017. Stability and change in internation al policy-
making: A punctuated equilibrium approach. The Review of International Organisations 13(4) 547-572
23 van der Heijden & Kuhlmann, 2018. s.334
24 Ibid s.334
25 Ibid s.340f
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Of the remaining 61 studies included in the sample, who refrain from explicitly testing
hypotheses, 47 of them state that their empirical study confirms theoretical expectations, 8 of
them partially do, and 6 do not.26 This can be interpreted as an indication that the punctuated
equilibrium theory in general does a good job in explaining policy change.
Additionally, two notable observations one can make regarding the literature is that previous
research is somewhat skewed toward the more extensive (quantitative) ways of gathering and
analyzing data; as well as mostly focusing on analyzing the statistical distribution of many
cases (and the appearance of this distribution) rather than regression techniques which are
more common in the quantitative field of political science.27 While there does exist a
respectable number of more intensive and case-like studies of single policies over time in
order to understand the given contexts and details underlying the shift from incremental to
paradigmatic policy change, such as in Cashore & Howlett’s study of forest policy changes in
the U.S Pacific Northwest, these are to a certain extent in shorter supply.28 This first
observation is also buttressed by Kuhlmann & van der Heijden, stating that approximately
42% of approaches are of qualitative nature, 48% on quantitative, and the rest relying on a
mixed-method design.29 Of course, as Baumgartner notes in his lessons for case analysis on
the subject, the extensive analyses must be strengthened with intensive analyses containing
these previously mentioned contexts and details in order to understand the process of policy
change in a more complete fashion, as he invites for more of these types of studies.30
The literature of policy dynamics does, however, not go without its definitional and
operationazional disputes. In two of their articles, Cashore & Howlett criticises a large part of
the previous literature on policy dynamics for conflating several distinct change processes
present in specific elements of policy, in other words conflating “the dependent variable”.31
26 Ibid s.340f
27 Baumgartner, Frank M. 2006. s.26f
28 Cashore, Benjamin & Howlett, Michael, 2006. Behavioral Thresholds and Institutional Rigidities as
Explanations of Punctuated Equilibrium Processes in the Pacific Northwest Forest Policy Dynamics, s. 137 -161, i Repetto & Gustave Speth (red), Punctuated Equilibrium and the Dynamics of U.S. Environmental Policy. Yale
University Press.
29 van der Heijden & Kuhlmann, 2018. s.339
30 Baumgartner, Frank M. 2006. s.36ff
31 Cashore & Howlett, 2009. s.37ff
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Cashore & Howlett attribute this to the fact that scholars in the research area mainly use a
“three order model”-taxonomy devised by Peter Hall in order to measure policy change,
which they mean lacks the capacity to disentangle these policies in a proper fashion. To
overcome (or at least to alleviate) this “dependent variable problem”, Cashore and Howlett
develop a more contemporary and improved taxonomy of policy composition based on Hall’s
work, which they argue will lead to a more accurate picture of the actual patterns of change
present in empirical cases.32
2.3 Operationalization
In order to study policy change over time empirically, and thus be able to compare our results
to the punctuated equilibrium theory, an analytical tool is required which can systematically
capture important components of a policy that is subject to change. As teased in the section
summarizing previous research on the area, a taxonomy of policy components proposed by
Cashore & Howell will be utilized in this study.33 This framework draws upon the original
work of Hall’s “three order model” in classifying policy composition, where he has identified
three policy elements subject to change: “The overarching goals on a high level abstraction
that guide policy in a particular field, the policy instruments on a programme level used to
attain these goals, and the settings of these instruments in an on-the-ground level.34 Hall saw
the need to distinguish between these different elements in order to gain improved insights in
the patterns of policy stability and development, because previous research on policy change
before Hall’s model tended to conflate these elements into a single dependent variable.35
However, in light of new empirical evidence that has emerged since, Cashore & Howlett has
argued that Hall’s efforts require recalibration in light of its own logic, as his three-order
model still struggles with the problem of conflating important and seperate policy elements.36
Cashore & Howlett expands on Hall’s model by differentiating between policy aims and
means, as well as between levels of abstraction: high level abstraction, specific on the ground
32 Cashore & Howlett 2009. s.39-42; see also Cashore, Benjamin & Howlett, Michael, 2007. Punctuating Which
Equilibrium? Understanding Thermostatic Policy Dynamics in Pacific Northwest Forestry. American journal of
political science 51(3):532-551. s.537.
33 Ibid.
34 Moore, Brendan, & Jordan, Andrew, 2020. Disaggregating the dependent variable in policy feedback
research: an analysis of the EU Emissions Trading System. Policy sciences 53(2): 291-307. s.295
35 Cashore & Howlett 2009. s.36
36 Ibid, s.38
14
measures (less abstract), and specific on-the-ground measures (least abstract).37 By doing
this, Cashore & Howlett distinguishes between six elements of policy that can undergo
change instead of Hall’s three, which will be overviewed in the following.
Firstly, a policy can be overarchingly divided into policy ends or aims and policy means or
tools. Policy ends or aims can in turn be conceptually subdivided into three categories or
elements.38 The first, policy goals, in more abstract terms asks what general types of ideas
govern policy development, such as e.g environmental protection or economic development.
The second, policy objectives, in less abstract terms asks what the policy formally aims to
address, such as saving wilderness or species habitat. The third, policy settings, asks what the
specific on-the-ground requirements of the policy are.
According to this model, policy means or tools can be subdivided into three elements as
well.39 Policy instrument logic concerns what general norms guide the selection of
implementation tools, e.g preferences for the use of coercive instruments. Policy Mechanisms
asks what specific instruments are utilized, such as tax systems. And finally, policy
calibrations ask what the specific ways in which the instrument is being used are, for
example the use of mandatory vs voluntary regulatory guidelines or standards. An overview
of these elements can be observed in table 1 below.
37 Moore & Jordan, 2020. s.295
38 Cashore & Howlett 2009 s.39; Henstra, Daniel 2011. The Dynamics of Policy Change: A Longitudinal Analysis
of Emergency Management in Ontario. Journal of policy history 23(3): 399-428. s.406
39 Cashore & Howlett 2009 s.39
15
Table 1. Elements of policy object to change
High Level Abstraction Programme Level Operationalization (Less Abstraction)
76 The Official Journal of the European Union, 2007. - Regulation 715/2007/EC (Retrieved 20/12-20) Link: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX%3A32007R0715
In this case, because changes only have taken place at the lowest level of abstraction, it is
most reasonable to classify the clean air policy change during 2011-2019 as incremental.
4.4 Discussion
There exists a barrage of questions and touching points in this study that are qualified for
discussion, some of which there is no space to include. But a fruitful starting point can be to
ask the question: why were the results not in line with those expected by the punctuated
equilibrium theory? In other words, why did we not see a paradigmatic pattern of change
after the exogenous event (the paris agreement) as hypothesised? Three explanations can be
provided: (1) the paris agreement was not a suitable choice of exogenous event after all, (2)
the punctuated equilibrium theory cannot explain the policy change in this case, and (3)
serious reliability issues regarding measurement of policy change gives us an inadequate
picture of how and in which way the policy has actually changed during this time period.
Concerning the choice of the Paris agreement as an exogenous event, it was thought to be
suitable as it was argued to fulfil Kingdon’s criteria of what might be considered as one (and
which most PET-scholars have relied on). However, it was noted that the Paris agreement,
unlike exogenous events typically found in other studies, was missing a form of “suddenness”
or “surprise” given its predictable nature (many expected some form of international climate
agreement to be reached around that time). Perhaps it is more important than previously
thought for an exogenous event to contain this quality of being unanticipated or catching
citizens and policymakers off guard, much like a nuclear disaster or economic crisis. Or
maybe there is some other or additional important quality or context missing in Kingdon’s
idea of exogenous shocks, that all in all might warrant a definitional development of what the
core parts of an exogenous shocks really are. However, it is interesting to note that the
changes observed, although seen as incremental, predominantly have taken place after the
Paris agreement. This opens up a discussion if exogenous events, in contrast to Hall’s line of
thinking, can lead to exclusively incremental change (which is thought to be due to
endogenous factors). However, this potential discussion will not be dealt with here any
further.
The second reason for not getting the results expected could be due to the fact that the
punctuated equilibrium theory may simply not be able explain policy change in this particular
case. Consider that the presence of environmental policy in general (and clean air policy in
particular) around the agenda and public debate in recent years has been a commonplace,
especially in countries like Sweden. This may be an indication that the policy image and
38
policy venue might already have been juxtaposed favourably towards environmental policy.
Having an exogenous event take place such as the Paris agreement that can easily be
perceived as favourable to environmental policy making, in the context of an equilibrium that
is already favourable to environmental policy making, might lead to a “puncture” without a
shift in equilibrium. Put differently, the contexts of policy monopolies in relation to
exogenous events might matter for the possibility of the PET to provide a sound explanation.
Another hypothesis is that the result might be a product of chance, as it is theorized that
exogenous events only increase the likelihood of punctures and positive feedback to take
place and is not strictly deterministic.
Lastly, the result could, at least partially, be a product of the operationalizational and
definitional issues that plague this study and the study of policy change more generally. Note
that this also impacts the descriptive mapping of clean air policy change related to the first
research question, and not just the second research question.
To begin with, the framework proposed by Cashore & Howlett for measuring a policy
through its six elements has according to the author rather severe definitional issues when it
comes to how these six elements individually should be understood, as well as the differences
between them. Though some examples and short descriptions of what might fit in each
category were presented in the two respective articles that deal with the theory, e.g
“environmental protection or economic development” in goals and “preferred levels of
harvesting” in settings; much discretion was left to the researcher to navigate and interpret.
While discretion doesn’t necessarily have to be bad in studies like this, the experience of the
author is that in this case it affects the reliability of the results to the point where
comparability with other studies using the same framework can be problematic. What can
also be problematic is that it can lead to situations where it is unclear whether some piece of
information should be included as part of a specific policy element or not, which can have a
direct effect on the analysis of the results. If it is unclear what Cashore & Howlett more
specifically meant with “general types of ideas that govern policy development” (goals) and
thereby puts the individual researcher on the fence whether to include a certain piece of
information, it can have a direct consequence of either interpreting the policy change as
paradigmatic or incremental.
This leads in to an additional definitional problem, which is chronic to the study of policy
change more generally and has also been somewhat highlighted previously in the litterature:
39
that concepts of paradigmatic and incremental change have been “under-specified entities”102
As previously mentioned, while the second framework of this study has been utilized to
somewhat relieve itself of this issue by taking into account two more modes of change than
the classic binary paradigmatic/incremental; the biggest issue remains of exactly how much
change is needed for a change to stop being incremental and instead be perceived as
paradigmatic. This wasn’t as problematic as it could’ve been for this study, since the results
pointed in a very clear and intuitive way towards incremental change.
But for any similar study locating themselves in the no man’s land between incremental and
paradigmatic change, this issue becomes increasingly pronounced and hard to deal with.
102 Cashore & Howlett, 2009. s.40
40
Conclusions To recapitulate, this study had three explicit purposes. Firstly, it was to heed the policy
change-heavyweight Frank M. Baumgartner’s invitation to complement the field of policy
change with further intensive analysis. Secondly, it was to apply an improved theoretical
framework (Cashore & Howlett’s framework) in an attempt to give a more valid and nuanced
description of the phenomenon of policy change compared to previous research. The third
and final purpose was to relate the findings to one of the dominant theories of policy change,
the punctuated equilibrium theory, in order to provide a contribution on the explanatory
capacity of the theory. While it is true that the more descriptive nature of this study means
that it does not bear the sort of power to disprove or confirm the PET, relating the results to
the theory has acted as a good starting point for studying policy change as well as opening up
for future discussion on why the change “changed like it did”.
Has the purposes of this study been achieved? By providing an answer to the first research
“In which ways has Swedish clean air policy changed or not changed over time?” the first
and second purpose is deemed to be. The answer to this question can be summarized as: The
clean air policy change over the years 2011-2019 can best be described as incremental, with
observed changes exclusively taking place in the policy elements settings and calibrations
and predominantly during the years 2017-2019.
By providing an answer to the second research question “To what extent can the change or
absence of the Swedish clean air policy be linked to expectations derived from the punctuated
equilibrium theory?”, the third purpose of this study is achieved. The expectations derived
from this theory was that a paradigmatic pattern of policy change should follow from the
exogenous event (the Paris agreement). What the results have shown is that incremental
change was the prevailing pattern of policy change even following the entry of an exogenous
event, therefore contradicting the above-mentioned theoretical expectations.
During the inception of this study, it was thought by the author that the biggest contribution it
would provide, with the help of above utilized frameworks, was an improved and more
accurate image of policy change. While this certainly can be said to have been provided, at
least to a certain extent; perhaps the largest contribution this study offers to the research area
is to highlight the definitional and operationalizational issues that plague both the
measurement of policy change as well as determining the mode or degree of that change.
41
It is the perception of the author that scholars invested in the study of policy dynamics to a
greater extent must overcome these hurdles if it is to progress in a more fruitful fashion in the
future.
42
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