The Leadership Mandate in a Fast Changing World 2008 3. Highlight the ... 2025_project.html. Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. Global Trends 2025 ... Institutions (UN,IMF...)
Post on 26-Jun-2018
216 Views
Preview:
Transcript
To develop value-grounded, no-excuse leaders that will transform their organizations, communities and nations to greater levels of performance and achievement.
Lecture 6
GLOBAL TRENDS 2025
The Leadership Mandate in
a Fast Changing World
OUTLINE
1. Leadership in relation to time
2. Summarise the Global Trends
Report 2008
3. Highlight the growing importance of
global leadership
Leadership and Time
Leadership is learning from the past,
preparing for the future and,
managing the present in light of the past
and future
James Magara
Leadership and Time
• Traditional leaders have their eyes on the past and keep seeking to get back to the good old days
• Conservative leaders have their eyes on the present and seek to maintain the status quo
• Strategic leaders have their eyes on the future and their hands feeling the pulse of the future
In a fast changing world…
“We must adapt to changing times while holding on to unchanging values”
• Former US President Jimmy Carter
WHAT KIND OF FUTURE IS
AFRICA SAIING TO?
What is on the horizon?
Prepared by CIA
and National
Intelligence Council,
USA 2008 and made
public last year
Electronic version
can be viewed at
www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_
2025_project.html.
Global Trends 2025:
A Transformed World
Global Trends 2025
The Study - Who was involved? • National Intelligence Council
- USA
• CIA
• Non-USG experts from the United States and abroad
• Participants via the Internet
• Series of discussion sessions across the US and in several other countries
• intellectual input from hundreds of sharp minds
• Most collaborative report of the 4 yet produced
Global Trends 2025
The Study - Who was involved? • “ …the worldwide response
to Global Trends 2025 was
extraordinary. The report
has been translated into
several languages, debated
in government offices,
discussed in university
courses, and used as a point
of departure in community
meetings on international
affairs”
Global Trends 2025:
7 Key Global Issues
1. Shift in World Power
2. Shift in National Wealth
3. Population Trends
4. Potential for Conflict Escalation
5. Climatic Change
6. Role of Multilateral Institutions (UN,IMF...)
7. Role of Non-governmental Organizations
Global Trends 2025:
Key Global Issues 1. Shift in World Power - From Bipolar to Unipolar to
Multipolar System
USA will remain powerful but its power will
decline
Old Players will still be present: USA,
Europe, Russia
New Players: China, India, Brazil
• WHAT ARE THE STRATEGIC ISSUES FOR AFRICA IN RELATION TO THIS?
Global Trends 2025:
Key Global Issues
1. Shift in World Power
2. Shift in National Wealth
3. Population Trends
4. Potential for Conflict Escalation
5. Climatic Change
6. Role of Multilateral Institutions (UN,IMF...)
7. Role of Non-governmental Organizations
Global Trends 2025:
Key Global Issues
2. Wealth of Nations
Shift in Wealth from West to East
Continued demand for oil and gas,
economically empowering nations like Russia,
Iran, and now Israel (and Uganda plus many
parts of Africa)
Possible energy transition away from oil and
gas to energy storage, bio-fuels, and clean
coal
Sub Saharan Africa
Global Trends 2025:
Key Global Issues
1. Shift in World Power
2. Shift in National Wealth
3. Population Trends
4. Potential for Conflict Escalation
5. Climatic Change
6. Role of Multilateral Institutions (UN,IMF...)
7. Role of Non-governmental Organizations
Global Trends 2025:
Key Global Issues: Population Trends
• World Population, currently estimated at 6.9 billion, will increase by 1.2 billion to 8.1 billion
• About 40% of that increase will come from Africa
• Less than 3 percent of the growth will occur in the West
• Older population = less productivity and lower growth rates
Global Trends 2025:
Key Global Issues: Population Trends
Year World Asia Africa Europe Latin
America
North
America
Oceania
2010 6,909 4,167
(60.3%)
1,033
(15.0%)
733
(10.6%)
589
(8.5%)
352
(5.1%)
36
(0.5%)
2015 7,302 4,391
(60.1%)
1,153
(15.8%)
734
(10.1%)
618
(8.5%)
368
(5.0%)
38
(0.5%)
2020 7,675 4,596
(59.9%)
1,276
(16.6%)
733
(9.6%)
646
(8.4%)
383
(5.0%)
40
(0.5%)
2025 8,012 4,773
(59.6%)
1,400
(17.5%)
729
(9.1%)
670
(8.4%)
398
(5.0%)
43
(0.5%)
2030 8,309 4,917
(59.2%)
1,524
(18.3%)
723
(8.7%)
690
(8.3%)
410
(4.9%)
45
(0.5%)
Global Trends 2025:
Key Global Issues
Global Trends 2025:
Key Global Issues: Urbanisation
MEGACITIES
Global Trends 2025:
Key Global Issues
3.Population Trends
Population Growth will put
pressure on energy, food,
and water resources;
Demand for food will
increase by 50% by 2030,
but climate change will
create food scarcity.
Land grabbing
New Scramble for African land
• Hedge funds and other foreign firms had acquired large swathes of African land, often without proper contracts
• displacing millions of small farmers.
• Foreign firms farm the land to consolidate their hold over global food markets, the report said.
• For more information, visit http://www.oaklandinstitute.org/
Global Trends 2025:
Key Global Issues
Population Trends-
Women in Power Female/Male proportion
Research findings
The World Bank Report, 2009 described a typical African today as an 18½ year old girl in the rural area.
Global Trends 2025: Women in Power
Region Single House
or lower House
Upper House
or Senate
Both Houses
combined
Nordic countries 41.6% --- ---
Americas 22.4% 23.5% 22.6%
Europe - OSCE member
countries
including Nordic countries
21.9% 19.7% 21.5%
Europe - OSCE member
countries
excluding Nordic countries
20.0% 19.7% 20.0%
Sub-Saharan Africa
• Uganda
19.0%
34.7%
19.7% 19.1%
Asia 18.3% 15.3% 18.0%
Pacific 12.4% 32,6% 14.7%
Arab States 11.4% 7.3% 10.7%
Global Trends 2025:
Key Global Issues
1. Shift in World Power
2. Shift in National Wealth
3. Population Trends
4. Potential for Conflict Escalation
5. Climatic Change
6. Role of Multilateral Institutions (UN,IMF...)
7. Role of Non-governmental Organizations
Global Trends 2025:
A Transformed World:
4.Potential for Conflict
Escalation
• Shrinking USA
power
• Increased conflict
in the Middle East
• Media wars
Global Trends 2025:
Key Global Issues 1. Shift in World Power
2. Shift in National Wealth
3. Population Trends
4. Potential for Conflict Escalation
5. Climatic Change
6. Role of Multilateral Institutions (UN,IMF...)
7. Role of Non-governmental Organizations
Global Trends 2025:
Key Global Issues 5. Climatic Change
Global warming will drastically affect the weather pattern
Will lead to drought, and food scarcity
Water will become very scarce - source of conflicts and wars
Urban overpopulation- infrastructural implications: water, health, food, housing, transportation, education, and jobs
Global Trends 2025:
Key Global Issues
1. Shift in World Power
2. Shift in National Wealth
3. Population Trends
4. Potential for Conflict Escalation
5. Climatic Change
6. Role of Multilateral Institutions (UN,IMF...)
7. Role of Non-governmental Organizations
Global Trends 2025:
Key Global Issues
1. Shift in World Power
2. Shift in National Wealth
3. Population Trends
4. Potential for Conflict Escalation
5. Climatic Change
6. Role of Multilateral Institutions (UN,IMF...)
7. Role of Non-governmental Organizations
A Growing Role for Religion
• “Religion based networks … may play a
more powerful role than secular
transnational groupings in exerting
influence and shaping outcomes in the
period out to 2025. Indeed, we could be
entering a new age of clerical leadership in
which religious leaders become major
power brokers in resolving future
international disputes and conflicts”
Some specific names used
• Later in the document we see an interesting
conclusion from the authors:
• “Rich rewards in power and influence already fall to
those religious entrepreneurs and televangelists who
span the two hemispheres, the Global South and
North
• Amir Khalede for Muslims and
• Matthew Ashimolowo
• or Sunday Adelaja for Christians.”
A World of Networks
• “In response to likely deficits in global governance, networks will form among states and non-state actors focused on specific issues. These networks will operate to pursue convergent goals and interests, including a genuine intent to solve problems, business self-interest, moral grounds, and the desire of international organizations and NGOs to be relevant to the problems facing a changing world”
• “Within the Christian tradition, the emergence of whole new patterns of authority and
leadership across the Global South entails autonomous ministers and religious
entrepreneurs, whose activities reap high status and great wealth. Before 2025, some
evangelists and megachurch preachers probably will seek to become the leaders of
nations, especially if those countries have been economically devastated during a global
downturn”
Global Trends 2025:
Leadership Will Be Key
Statesmen versus Politicians
•A politician makes decisions with his eye on the next elections while a statesman makes decisions
with his eye on the next generation.
•Which one will you be?
WHAT KIND OF FUTURE WILL WE
CREATE FOR AFRICA IN THE NEXT 50 YEARS
What is on the horizon?
top related