The Composition of the Vehicle Fleet in the Metropolitan Washington Region Results of Applying a Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) Decoder to July 1,
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The Composition of the Vehicle Fleet in the Metropolitan
Washington Region
Results of Applying a Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) Decoder to July 1, 2008 Vehicle Registration Data
Presentation to theNational Capital Region Transportation Planning Board
April 15, 2009
ITEM # 11
2
STUDY PURPOSE
- Review of trends in region’s vehicle fleet
- Assess impacts of market changes
- Apply latest planning assumptions in air quality analyses
3
TECHNICAL METHODS
- Obtain data files of registered vehicles in D.C, MD and VA
- Apply ‘VIN Decoder’ software to read files and tabulate according to vehicle type, weight, fuel use and year of manufacture
- Identify vehicle composition and changes since first use of decoder with 2005 data
- Develop input files for EPA’s Mobile 6 model- Re-estimate emissions factors for forecast year
analyses in current air quality conformity assessment
4
STUDY RESULTS
- Composition of vehicle fleet in 2008- Number of registered vehicles- Vehicle type
- Cars, SUVs, heavy duty trucks- Hybrids- Age of Vehicles
- Changes through time
5
Data Sources
• Vehicle Registration Data for the Washington Region as of July 1, 2008 from DC Department of Motor Vehicles, Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration, and Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles
• VINPOWER Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) decoder software from ESP Data Solutions
• National vehicle fleet data projections from “Fleet Characterization Data for Mobile 6” by Environmental Protection Agency, September, 2001
6
Vehicle Type Definitions
• Passenger Vehicles (Less than 6,000 lbs): Passenger Cars and Motorcycles
• Light Duty Trucks (Less than 8,500 lbs): Sport Utility Vehicles, Pickup Trucks, Panel Trucks
• Heavy Duty Trucks (8,500 lbs and above): Tractor-Trailers, School and Transit Buses, Trash Trucks
7
8
Washington Area Vehicle Registrations (000)
Jurisdiction Years 2005 to 2008
2005 2008 ChangePercent Change
District of Columbia 258.1 243.2 -14.9 -5.8
Maryland 1,684.5 1,734.9 50.4 3.0
Virginia 1,574.1 1,661.8 87.7 5.6
Total 3,516.7 3,639.9 123.2 3.5
9
Washington Area Registrations By Vehicle Type (000)
2005 2008
Vehicle Type Registrations Percentage Registrations Percentage
Pass. Cars/Motorcycles 183.9 71.2 164.3 67.6
DC
Lt. Trucks/SUVs 65.0 25.2 68.1 28.0
Heavy Trucks 9.2 3.6 10.7 4.4
TOTAL 258.1 100.0 243.2 100.0
Pass. Cars/Motorcycles 992.0 58.9 985.4 56.8
MD
Lt. Trucks/SUVs 602.1 35.7 649.1 37.4
Heavy Trucks 90.3 5.4 100.5 5.8
TOTAL 1,684.5 100.0 1,734.9 100.0
Pass. Cars/Motorcycles 928.2 59.0 951.2 57.2
VA
Lt. Trucks/SUVs 573.1 36.4 634.0 38.1
Heavy Trucks 72.8 4.6 76.7 4.6
TOTAL 1,574.1 100.0 1,661.8 100.0
Pass. Cars/Motorcycles 2,104.7 59.8 2,101.6 57.7
Region
Lt. Trucks/SUVs 1,239.8 35.3 1,350.6 37.1
Heavy Trucks 172.2 4.9 187.7 5.2
TOTAL 3,516.7 100.0 3,639.9 100.0
10
Washington Area Passenger Vehicles (LDV) and Light Duty Trucks (LDT) Percentages of Total Light Duty Vehicles
by Model Year
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
Pe
rce
nta
ge
by
Mo
de
l Ye
ars
Washington Area_LDV
Washington Area_LDT
EPA Projection_LDV
EPA Projection_LDT
11
Washington Area Hybrid Vehicle Registrations
9232,640
8,280
3,608
13,486
24,635
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
DC MD Total VA Total
Nu
mb
er
of
Hy
bri
ds
2005
2008
0.4%
1.5% 0.2%
0.8%
0.5%
1.5%
12
Washington Area Vehicle Age Distribution Passenger Vehicles
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Vehicle Age(Years)
Ag
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n
2005 VIN Decodes
2008 VIN Decodes
13
Washington Area Vehicle Age Distributions Light Trucks and SUVs
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Vehicle Age(Years)
Ag
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n
2005 VIN Decodes
2008 VIN Decodes
14
Washington Area Vehicle Age Distributions Heavy Trucks
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Vehicle Age(Years)
Ag
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n
2005 VIN Decodes
2008 VIN Decodes
15
Average Age (Years) for Passenger Cars, Light Duty Trucks and Heavy Duty Vehicles
Vehicle Type 2005 2008 Increase
Passenger Cars/MC 8.2 8.5 0.3
Light Duty Trucks 7.1 7.5 0.5
Heavy Duty Vehicles 8.6 9.2 0.6
16
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65Speed (mph)
gra
ms
per
mil
e
2010_05
2010_08
2030_05
2030_08
2010 AND 2030 VOC COMPOSITE MOBILE6.2 FREEWAY RUNNING RATES IN WASHINGTON AREA
2005 VS 2008 FLEET
2010
2030
17
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Speed (mph)
gra
ms
pe
r m
ile
2010_05
2010_08
2030_05
2030_08
2010 AND 2030 NOX COMPOSITE MOBILE6.2 FREEWAY RUNNING RATES IN WASHINGTON AREA
2005 VS 2008 FLEET
2010
2030
18
CONCLUSIONS: 2008 VS. 2005 FLEET
Factors Tending to Reduce Emissions:- Hybrid vehicles increasing dramatically (although
still small in absolute numbers)- Passenger cars vs. SUVs trends reversed, i.e., new car purchases increasing at the expense of SUVs
and light trucksFactors Tending to Increase Emissions:
- Fewer new vehicles being purchased- Emissions factors higher as a result, for both VOC
and NOx> up to10% higher rates in 2010> up to 4% higher rates in 2030
19
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
- Policy Initiatives on Capitol Hill (e.g., Cash for Clunkers)
- EPA Programs (e.g., heavy-duty truck retrofits and re-powering)
- DOE Energy Conservation Programs (e.g., Idle-Reduction Technologies)
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