The Composition of the Vehicle Fleet in the Metropolitan Washington Region Results of Applying a Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) Decoder to July 1,

The Composition of the Vehicle Fleet in the Metropolitan

Washington Region

Results of Applying a Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) Decoder to July 1, 2008 Vehicle Registration Data

Presentation to theNational Capital Region Transportation Planning Board

April 15, 2009

ITEM # 11

2

STUDY PURPOSE

- Review of trends in region’s vehicle fleet

- Assess impacts of market changes

- Apply latest planning assumptions in air quality analyses

3

TECHNICAL METHODS

- Obtain data files of registered vehicles in D.C, MD and VA

- Apply ‘VIN Decoder’ software to read files and tabulate according to vehicle type, weight, fuel use and year of manufacture

- Identify vehicle composition and changes since first use of decoder with 2005 data

- Develop input files for EPA’s Mobile 6 model- Re-estimate emissions factors for forecast year

analyses in current air quality conformity assessment

4

STUDY RESULTS

- Composition of vehicle fleet in 2008- Number of registered vehicles- Vehicle type

- Cars, SUVs, heavy duty trucks- Hybrids- Age of Vehicles

- Changes through time

5

Data Sources

• Vehicle Registration Data for the Washington Region as of July 1, 2008 from DC Department of Motor Vehicles, Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration, and Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles

• VINPOWER Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) decoder software from ESP Data Solutions

• National vehicle fleet data projections from “Fleet Characterization Data for Mobile 6” by Environmental Protection Agency, September, 2001

6

Vehicle Type Definitions

• Passenger Vehicles (Less than 6,000 lbs): Passenger Cars and Motorcycles

• Light Duty Trucks (Less than 8,500 lbs): Sport Utility Vehicles, Pickup Trucks, Panel Trucks

• Heavy Duty Trucks (8,500 lbs and above): Tractor-Trailers, School and Transit Buses, Trash Trucks

7

8

Washington Area Vehicle Registrations (000)  

  Jurisdiction Years 2005 to 2008  

    2005 2008 ChangePercent Change  

District of Columbia 258.1 243.2 -14.9 -5.8  

  Maryland 1,684.5 1,734.9 50.4 3.0  

  Virginia 1,574.1 1,661.8 87.7 5.6  

  Total 3,516.7 3,639.9 123.2 3.5  

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Washington Area Registrations By Vehicle Type (000)           

    2005 2008

Vehicle Type   Registrations Percentage Registrations Percentage

  Pass. Cars/Motorcycles 183.9 71.2 164.3 67.6

DC

Lt. Trucks/SUVs 65.0 25.2 68.1 28.0

Heavy Trucks 9.2 3.6 10.7 4.4

  TOTAL 258.1 100.0 243.2 100.0

  Pass. Cars/Motorcycles 992.0 58.9 985.4 56.8

MD

Lt. Trucks/SUVs 602.1 35.7 649.1 37.4

Heavy Trucks 90.3 5.4 100.5 5.8

  TOTAL 1,684.5 100.0 1,734.9 100.0

  Pass. Cars/Motorcycles 928.2 59.0 951.2 57.2

VA

Lt. Trucks/SUVs 573.1 36.4 634.0 38.1

Heavy Trucks 72.8 4.6 76.7 4.6

  TOTAL 1,574.1 100.0 1,661.8 100.0

  Pass. Cars/Motorcycles 2,104.7 59.8 2,101.6 57.7

Region

Lt. Trucks/SUVs 1,239.8 35.3 1,350.6 37.1

Heavy Trucks 172.2 4.9 187.7 5.2

  TOTAL 3,516.7 100.0 3,639.9 100.0

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Washington Area Passenger Vehicles (LDV) and Light Duty Trucks (LDT) Percentages of Total Light Duty Vehicles

by Model Year

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Year

Pe

rce

nta

ge

by

Mo

de

l Ye

ars

Washington Area_LDV

Washington Area_LDT

EPA Projection_LDV

EPA Projection_LDT

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Washington Area Hybrid Vehicle Registrations

9232,640

8,280

3,608

13,486

24,635

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

DC MD Total VA Total

Nu

mb

er

of

Hy

bri

ds

2005

2008

0.4%

1.5% 0.2%

0.8%

0.5%

1.5%

12

Washington Area Vehicle Age Distribution Passenger Vehicles

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Vehicle Age(Years)

Ag

e D

istr

ibu

tio

n

2005 VIN Decodes

2008 VIN Decodes

13

Washington Area Vehicle Age Distributions Light Trucks and SUVs

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Vehicle Age(Years)

Ag

e D

istr

ibu

tio

n

2005 VIN Decodes

2008 VIN Decodes

14

Washington Area Vehicle Age Distributions Heavy Trucks

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Vehicle Age(Years)

Ag

e D

istr

ibu

tio

n

2005 VIN Decodes

2008 VIN Decodes

15

Average Age (Years) for Passenger Cars, Light Duty Trucks and Heavy Duty Vehicles

   Vehicle Type 2005 2008 Increase  

  Passenger Cars/MC 8.2 8.5 0.3  

  Light Duty Trucks 7.1 7.5 0.5  

  Heavy Duty Vehicles 8.6 9.2 0.6  

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0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65Speed (mph)

gra

ms

per

mil

e

2010_05

2010_08

2030_05

2030_08

2010 AND 2030 VOC COMPOSITE MOBILE6.2 FREEWAY RUNNING RATES IN WASHINGTON AREA

2005 VS 2008 FLEET

2010

2030

17

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Speed (mph)

gra

ms

pe

r m

ile

2010_05

2010_08

2030_05

2030_08

2010 AND 2030 NOX COMPOSITE MOBILE6.2 FREEWAY RUNNING RATES IN WASHINGTON AREA

2005 VS 2008 FLEET

2010

2030

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CONCLUSIONS: 2008 VS. 2005 FLEET

Factors Tending to Reduce Emissions:- Hybrid vehicles increasing dramatically (although

still small in absolute numbers)- Passenger cars vs. SUVs trends reversed, i.e., new car purchases increasing at the expense of SUVs

and light trucksFactors Tending to Increase Emissions:

- Fewer new vehicles being purchased- Emissions factors higher as a result, for both VOC

and NOx> up to10% higher rates in 2010> up to 4% higher rates in 2030

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POLICY IMPLICATIONS

- Policy Initiatives on Capitol Hill (e.g., Cash for Clunkers)

- EPA Programs (e.g., heavy-duty truck retrofits and re-powering)

- DOE Energy Conservation Programs (e.g., Idle-Reduction Technologies)