TeleMedia Futures: the next 5 years in Media, Content and Telecom

Telemedia Futures

by Gerd Leonhard ‣ Futurist‣ Strategist‣ Author & Blogger

www.mediafuturist.comtwitter.com/gleonhard

At BLPLaw London, January 13, 2010

From a Broadcast World to a Networked World

From EgoSystems to EcoSystems

From EgoSystems to EcoSystems

The Future: TeleMedia Collaboration

Content

Internet Telecom

Advertising

Consumer Electronics

Social Networks

From Binary Logic to Fuzzy Logic

Source: http://denniscass.com/

What is the value of....?

The Redefinition of ‘Telecom’

Data Pipe

Content Pipe

Experience PlatformService Pipe

Source: eMarketer.com

New technologies - new practices - new business models

Firehoses of Information

Social games & virtual goods

800.000 tractors ‘sold’ EACH DAY65 Million+ users without any advertising

1.2 Million users per day est. $200M / Year in revenues

Source: YouTube.com “farmville girl’

Next: The Napsterization of Books...?

Source: YouTube.com

0

2.5

5

7.5

10

Calls SMS Data Content Services Experiences

Focus on ControlOpportunities for Growth

Tele-Media Paradigm Shifts

The Opportunity: Lubricate!

Data is the new Oil...Shared bookmarks, playlists, social markers

Click-trails and digital bread-crumbsOpt-in information such as location

Ratings, comments, tags and other feedback

Digital Content Trends

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2012 2015

Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services

Music Video Games Books Mags & Print

PermissionStandards

TransparencyEngagement

What we need:

0

25

50

75

100

Was Will be

Price Users

Content: pricing logic will flip

Metrics will be reinvented

More

PermissionsMore added

Values

Better Price

More

Convenience

New

Ecosystem

Expensive Cheaper Flat-Rated Flat-Rated

Expensive

The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes

0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

Was

Soon

Mid-term FutureCopy Based RevenuesAttention Based Revenues

“Broadband is useless if your mind stays narrow”

Thanks to Flickr.com/alextorrenegra

Content is only ~20% of the Cost

Bono / Paul McGuinness

Source: last week’s FT (Op-ed by Bono)

Media $$$: no

longer about

Distribution

2010: watch the sea change

Source: IFPI Report 2008

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Was Is Soon The Future

Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)

Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXTValue of Meta-Content Value of ExperiencesValue of Packaging

Value of ‘a Copy’

Value of ContextValue of Experience

Value of Meta-ContentValue of Packaging

Not ‘if’ but ‘how’!

ISPs and Mobile Operators will move up the food-chain:

Social Networking

Content Services

Communication 2.0

Money 2.0

eLearning

email me at gerd@mediafuturist.comtwitter.com/gleonhardfacebook: gleonhardmore presentations at www.mediafuturist.com

Thanks for your time