TAIWAN’S PARTY SYSTEM

TAIWAN’S PARTY SYSTEM

Week 5

Lecture Outline

• Party System in Taiwan

• Impact of Electoral System on Party System

• Impact of Social Cleavage on Party System

1. Party System in Taiwan

• How many parties in Taiwan? – A. 2; B. 3; C.4; D. All are correct

– How many relevant parties (Saotori)?• De facto two parties?

1. Party System in Taiwan

• Conflictual two parties system? (role of media)– Rather than consensual or accommodative

party system (Almond [ 阿尔蒙得］ 2006, p.90)

– Functions of polarized social cleavage• “Manufactured” two parties?

– Functions of electoral system

Party Systems in Taiwan

• The Nationalist Party (KMT, 国民党 )– Conservative by name ？– Transference of the meaning via translation– Three People’s Principles ( 民族［民有］、民权［民治］、民生［民享］）

–“驱除鞑虏 ,恢复中华 ,创立民国 ,平均地权”– To conserve one China framework– Right tendency in social issues?

Party Systems in Taiwan

Party Systems in Taiwan

• The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP, 民主进步党）• More radical in changing the status quo• Environmentalism• 更多地代表中下层、中小企业和中南部利益• 累积性社会分歧（非交叉性分歧）

• Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU,台联）• People’ First Party (PFP, 亲民党）• The Chinese New Party (NP,中华新党）

Party Systems and Parliamentary Seat Percentage

• Jean Blondel’s ideal types–Two party system ： 50-50 or 55-

45–Two and one-half party system:

45-40-15–Multi-party with one dominant

party system ： 45-20-15-10-10–Multi-party system ： 25-25-25-

15-10

Vote and Seat Percentage in Legislative Yuan, 2001-2012

• 2001: 39%-30%-20%-6%-4%(Seat)• 2004: 40%-35%-15%-5%-4%(Seat)• 2008 （ KMT vs. DPP)：

– Vote ： 53.5% vs. 38.2% (“区域立委”得票率）– Seat ： 72% vs. 24% （总席位 113席）

• 2012 （ KMT vs. DPP)：– Vote ： 48.2% vs. 43.8% （ 44.6% vs. 34.6

%）– Seat ： 56.6% (64) vs. 35.4% (40)

2. Impact of Electoral System on Party System

• New electoral system for LV since 2008– 1 seat for 73 single-member districts

• 1998-2004: 168 from multi-member districts– 3 seats for each of the 2 multi-member districts

• 1998-2004: 4 for each– 34 seats for proportional party representative

system • 1998-2004: 49, including 8 for overseas)

– 73 + 6 + 34 + 113 • 1998-2004: 225

Vote Percentage (%) and Seats in Legislative Elections,1992-2012

Year

Seats

1992

161

1995

164

1998

225

2001

225

2004

22508>10

113>

2012

113

KMT 52.7

94

46.1

85

46.4

124

28.6

68

32.8

79

53.5

81>74

48.2

64

PFP / / / 18.6

46

13.9

34

0.29

1>>0

1.33

3

NP / 13.0

21

7.1

11

2.6

1

0.1

1 /0.08

0

DPP 31.4

51

33.2

54

29.6

70

33.4

87

35.7

89

38.2

27>>33

43.8

40

TSU / / / 7.8

13

7.8

12

0.96

0 3

Others 15.9

16

7.8

4

16.9

20

9.0

10

9.7

10

7.08

4>>5

6.61

3

Party Seats in Legislative Yuan, 1992-2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2008 2012

NP

PFP

KMT

DPP

ＴＳＵ

Ｏｔｈｅｒ

Seats and Percentage (%)

Yean

Seat1992161

1995164

1998225

2001225

2004225

2008113

2012113

NP N/A 21

12.8

11

4.89

1

0.4

1

0.4

0

0

0

0

PFP N/A N/A N/A 46

20.4

34

15.1

1

0.9

3

2.65

KMT 94

58.4

85

51.8

124

55.1

68

30.2

79

35.1

81(74)

71.7

64

56.6

DPP 51

31.7

54

32.9

70

31.1

87

38.7

89

39.6

27(33)

23.9

40

35.4

TIP/

TSU

N/A N/A 1

0.4

13

5.8

12

5.3

3

2.65

Vote Percentage and Seat Percentage: A Comparison of Vote to Seat Share Ratio

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2008 2012

国民党 52.758.4

46.151.8

46.455.1

28.630.2

32.835.1

53.5/51.271.68

48.2/44.656.64

亲民党 n/a n/a n/a 19.0

20.4

14.3

15.1

0.29/0

0.88

1.33/5.49

2.65

新党 n/a 13.0

12.8

7.14.89

2.60.4

0.10.4

0/3.95

0

0.08/1.49

0

民进党 31.431.7

33.232.9

29.631.1

33.438.7

35.739.6

38.2or36.923.89

43.8/34.635.40

建国党 /台联

n/a n/a 1.450.4

7.85.8

7.85.3

0.96/3.530

0/8.962.65

其他 15.99.9

7.82.4

16.98.9

9.04.4

9.74.4

7.083.54

6.61/4.92.65

Single-Member District:Good for Incumbents

连任 % 同党换人

% 蓝绿轮替

％

KMT 33（ 43 ）

75 5 11.3 4 13.6

DPP 11（ 15 ）

40.7 4 14.8 12 44.4

Total 45 61.6 9 12.3 19 26.0

Vote Percentage in Presidential Elections

Year/

Vote%

1996

76.04

2000

82.69

2004

80.28

2008

76.33

2012

74.38

KMT 54.0

Lee & Lian

23.10

Lien &

Hsiao

49.89

Lien &

Song

58.45

Ma &

Hsiao

51.6

Ma &

Wu

DPP 21.13 39.30

Chen

& Lu

50.11

Chen &

Lu

41.55

Hsieh &

SU

45.6

Tsai &

Su

Others 24.88

Lin&Hao Chen

36.84

James Song

2.77

Song

Blue Votes in Local and Presidential Elections

Green Votes in Local and Presidential Elections

台湾地区最高领导人历年选举得票率比较年份 /

投票率1996

76.04

2000

82.69

2004

80.28

2008

76.33

2012

74.38

国民党 54.0

李 & 连23.10

连 & 萧49.89

连 & 宋58.45

马 & 萧51.6

马 & 吴

民进党 21.13

彭 & 谢39.30

陈 & 吕50.11

陈 & 吕41.55

谢 & 苏45.6

蔡 & 苏

第三势力

24.88

林 & 郝 陈 & 王

36.84

宋 & 张2.77

宋楚瑜

两党体系的确立

• 让 ·布隆德尔（ Jean Blondel）根据议会席次比的理想分类– 两党体系：50-50 和 55-45之间

– 两个半政党体系： 45-40-15

– 一党优势的多党体系： 45-20-15-10-10

– 不具一党优势的多党体系： 25-25-25-15-10

两党体系的确立（立法机构席次率）

• 2001: 39%----30%----20%----6%----4%• 得票率： 38.7 ％ --30.2 ％ ----20.4 ％ --5.8 ％ ---4.4％

• 2004: 40%-----35%-----15%-----5%----4%• 得票率： 39.6 ％ --35.1 ％ -----15.1 ％ ----5.3 ％ ----4.4％

• 2008 ： 72%--24% ［ 81 席— 27席］–得票率： 51.2 ％ vs. 36.9%（政党票）［ 20席－ 14席］–得票率： 53.5% vs. 38.2%（选区票）［ 61席－ 13席］

• 2012 ： 56.6%-- 35.4% ［ 64席－ 40席］–得票率： 44.6% vs. 34.6%（政党票）［ 16席－ 13席］–得票率： 48.2% vs. 43.8%（选区票）［ 48席－ 27席］

4. 两党体系的确立

•选举制度对政党体系的影响– 73个选区一区一席

•1998-2004: 由一区多席产生 168 席位• 2 个原住民选区一区三席

•1998-2004: 一区四席• 由政党比例代表制产生 34 个席位（ 30 ％）

•1998-2004:49 （ 22 ％） , 含 8 个华侨席位• 73 + 6 + 34 + 113

•1998-2004: 225