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© OECD/IEA - 2012
Short and Medium Term Forecasting of Oil Markets
Energy Training Week
Paris, April 2013
© OECD/IEA - 2012
Short and Medium-Term Analysis & Forecasting:
Introduction
Antoine Halff
© OECD/IEA - 2012
1973/74 oil crisis
Avoid competition for limited supplies
“Go-it-alone”, uncoordinated policy ineffective
Coordinated action
mechanism for response
Safety net
emergency reserves ≥90 days of net oil imports
Demand restraint measures (7-10%)
Shared goals (1983) now comprise
Energy security, environmental protection, economic
growth, engagement
Origins: The impetus to establish the IEA
3
© OECD/IEA - 2012
Benchmark oil market analysis from IEA www.oilmarketreport.org
The benchmark oil market report since 1983, with extensive, up-to-date, statistical data plus 12-18 month global fundamentals outlook
Detailed, up to the minute market analysis underpins the IEA’s emergency response mandate
Seventh edition in October 2012 of this annual outlook looking five years ahead
Closes previous gap between short-term OMR and long-term World Energy Outlook (‘WEO’)
© OECD/IEA - 2012
5
Developed after calls by governments, analysts & market players for information on market & investment trends five years forward (‘investment cycle’)
Looks at potential market conditions under existing policies and investment plans
Essential bridge between the OMR’s 12-18-month projections and the WEO’s 30-year scenarios
Analysis of industry trends (N. American supply revolution, the “New Oil Map”, OPEC, refining, storage & logistics, trade, capacity investment & rationalisation, supply costs, fuel substitution, end-use efficiency, developing country demand, biofuel, crude oil quality, products availability & price formation)
MTOMR produced annually, but MT themes highlighted & developed year-round in the OMR
Medium term market analysis
© OECD/IEA - 2012
Data, analysis & projections available via website (2 weeks later for non-subscribers)
www.oilmarketreport.org
© OECD/IEA - 2012
Who Reads the OMR?
OMR & MODS data are together the IEA’s biggest publication revenue source
Government decision-makers, notably those
with emergency preparedness responsibility
Market analysts and consultants
International and national oil companies
The oil trade press
Oil consumers
Trading and shipping companies
The financial sector
The general public
OMR is free on www.oilmarketreport.org two weeks after release
© OECD/IEA - 2012
IEA sales by key publication
Statistics
WEO
I-Library
OMR
Other
ETP
© OECD/IEA - 2012
International Organisation
Subscription Agent/Bookseller
Government
Academia/
Research
Institute Trade/
Finance
Other
NGO
IEA Bookshop: 2012 sales by sector
Industry
© OECD/IEA - 2012
Do’s and dont’s
What we don’t do
Allow for random events in
projections
Forecast future OPEC policy
decisions or country crude
production levels
Forecast future price &
refining margin levels
Create ‘optimal’ policy &
investment scenarios
Analysis for emergency
response needs to show the
situation as it is or likely
will be, not how we wish it
to be
What we do
Analyse current & future
market fundamentals under
current policies & investment
plans
Forecast under “normal”
conditions (with seasonality)
Current OPEC supply & future
capacity
Global oil demand by country/product
Non-OPEC supply, by country, field-
by-field (assumed maximised)
Refining capacity availability & runs
Regional oil products availability
Future ‘call on OPEC & stock change’
Assess recent trends in stocks,
prices & margins
Advise in emergencies whether
IEA collective action is
appropriate
© OECD/IEA - 2012
National
Administration
Oil & Gas
Associations
Shell
ExxonMobil
Statoil, etc
Data for month - 2
OIM’s staple diet – Monthly Oil & Gas Statistics
25th ofmonth
© OECD/IEA - 2012
Other data sources are important too Net production per field current year.
Net production of saleable products (Norwegian share)
NGL = butane + ethane + isobutane + propane + LPG + gasoline + NGL mix. Condensate = Condensate. Sm3o.e. = oil + gas + NGL + condensate.
Field Period Oil
[mill Sm3] Gas
[bill Sm3] Cond.
[mill Sm3] NGL
[mill Sm3] Sm3o.e.
[mill]
2010 0.018059 0.000000 0.000000 0.000452 0.018511
jan.2010 0.002977 0.000000 0.000000 0.000076 0.003053
feb.2010 0.002601 0.000000 0.000000 0.000095 0.002696
mar.2010 0.003016 0.000000 0.000000 0.000149 0.003165
apr.2010 0.001829 0.000000 0.000000 0.000023 0.001852
may.2010 0.003143 0.000000 0.000000 0.000095 0.003238
jun.2010 0.001675 0.000000 0.000000 0.000031 0.001706
jul.2010 0.002818 0.000000 0.000000 - 0.000017 0.002801
Alve 2010 0.156861 0.537842 0.000000 0.182690 0.877393
jan.2010 0.024682 0.087727 0.000000 0.028796 0.141205
feb.2010 0.023156 0.078388 0.000000 0.026119 0.127663
mar.2010 0.024274 0.083820 0.000000 0.028695 0.136789
apr.2010 0.017258 0.058222 0.000000 0.020304 0.095784
may.2010 0.024072 0.082042 0.000000 0.028642 0.134756
jun.2010 0.022290 0.075561 0.000000 0.025831 0.123682
jul.2010 0.021129 0.072082 0.000000 0.024303 0.117514
Alvheim 2010 2.872653 0.265882 0.000000 0.000000 3.138535
jan.2010 0.418930 0.037109 0.000000 0.000000 0.456039
feb.2010 0.397883 0.035672 0.000000 0.000000 0.433555
mar.2010 0.444272 0.040498 0.000000 0.000000 0.484770
apr.2010 0.411991 0.039420 0.000000 0.000000 0.451411
may.2010 0.393766 0.037127 0.000000 0.000000 0.430893
jun.2010 0.402174 0.037393 0.000000 0.000000 0.439567
jul.2010 0.403637 0.038663 0.000000 0.000000 0.442300
Balder 2010 1.668151 0.057005 0.000000 0.000000 1.725156
jan.2010 0.256054 0.008937 0.000000 0.000000 0.264991
feb.2010 0.225217 0.009292 0.000000 0.000000 0.234509
mar.2010 0.237092 0.008095 0.000000 0.000000 0.245187
apr.2010 0.237420 0.007803 0.000000 0.000000 0.245223
may.2010 0.239213 0.007847 0.000000 0.000000 0.247060
jun.2010 0.219267 0.006173 0.000000 0.000000 0.225440
jul.2010 0.253888 0.008858 0.000000 0.000000 0.262746
JODI monthly aggregated data on supply, demand & stock change from Jan02
Huge advance in global data coverage, but quality can be variable
Much of OIM’s analysis requires more detailed national & company data (field-by-field, refinery or sector-specific)
Detailed data from alternative sources helps verify accuracy of formal IEA data submissions
Ormen Lange 2010 0.000000 12.218073 0.888170 0.000000 13.106243
jan.2010 0.000000 1.800511 0.123103 0.000000 1.923614
feb.2010 0.000000 1.867882 0.158536 0.000000 2.026418
mar.2010 0.000000 1.874864 0.128989 0.000000 2.003853
apr.2010 0.000000 1.993824 0.150339 0.000000 2.144163
may.2010 0.000000 1.860188 0.136818 0.000000 1.997006
jun.2010 0.000000 1.770593 0.125223 0.000000 1.895816
jul.2010 0.000000 1.050211 0.065162 0.000000 1.115373
Oseberg 2010 2.666577 1.982622 0.000000 0.576754 5.225953
jan.2010 0.506045 0.710064 0.000000 0.090328 1.306437
feb.2010 0.413199 0.308538 0.000000 0.105875 0.827612
mar.2010 0.395236 0.309167 0.000000 0.113134 0.817537
apr.2010 0.399463 0.360064 0.000000 0.120381 0.879908
may.2010 0.379695 0.292145 0.000000 0.095167 0.767007
jun.2010 0.287045 0.002581 0.000000 0.043886 0.333512
jul.2010 0.285894 0.000063 0.000000 0.007983 0.293940
Oseberg Sør 2010 1.474854 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.474854
jan.2010 0.237797 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.237797
feb.2010 0.218348 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.218348
mar.2010 0.225302 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.225302
apr.2010 0.207324 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.207324
may.2010 0.215126 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.215126
jun.2010 0.193270 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.193270
jul.2010 0.177687 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.177687
© OECD/IEA - 2012
The New Oil Map: Crude trade flows
Crude Exports in 2017 and Growth in 2011-17 for Key Trade Routes*(million barrels per day)
* Excludes Intra-Regional Trade
3.0
(+0.9) 4.6(-0.4)
0.6(-1.3)
2.5
1.9 (-0.2)
1.2 (+0.7)
-0.3
1.5
1.7 (+0.7)
(-1)
0.2(+0.2)
0.6Red number in brackets denotes growth in period 2011-17 (+0.2)
5.6
(+0.3)
Other Asia
China
OECD Europe
1.3(-0.6)
1.1 (+0.6)
OECD Pacific
0.1 (-0.2)
0.7(+0.3)
3.3 (-1.1)
NorthAmerica
© OECD/IEA - 2012
The New Oil Map: Demand Non-OECD demand overtakes OECD in 2014
OECD contracts by 200 kb/d per year while non-OECD grows 1.3 mb/d
OECD vs. Non-OECD Oil Demand
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
mb/d
OECD Non-OECD
© OECD/IEA - 2012
The New Oil Map: Refining capacity
Investments set to add:
7.5 mb/d of net crude distillation capacity by 2017
5.9 mb/d of upgrading capacity
5.4 mb/d of de-sulphurisation capacity
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Crude Distillation Additions
OECD ChinaOther Asia Middle EastLatin America Other Non OECD
China37%
Other Asia
18%
Middle East
22%
Latin America
6%
Other17%
Regional Share of CDU Expansions
Non-OECD accounts for all growth
© OECD/IEA - 2012
The New Oil Map: Throughputs
34.0
35.0
36.0
37.0
38.0
39.0
1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13
mb/dOECD vs. Non-OECD Crude Runs
OECD Non-OECD
© OECD/IEA - 2012
Oil market shift to the emerging markets calls for a shift in data availability too
All of expected demand growth is from non-
OECD markets
Asia & Mid East dominate new refining &
storage capacity build
OPEC crude & NGL, Brazil, Caspian are the
supply growth areas
Assessing market dynamics & pricing
pressures in future requires more, regular and
better non-OECD fundamentals data
© OECD/IEA - 2012
Expect the unexpected
However good the data, forecasts are always prone to uncertainties
0
5
10
15
20
25
Apr 11 Aug 11 Dec 11 Apr 12 Aug 12 Dec 12
TWh Japan: Nuclear Power Generation Scenarios
No nuclear restart Some nuclear restart
Normal nuclear power
Shortfall to be filled by oil and gas
© OECD/IEA - 2012
How do we use oil market analysis for emergency response?
Intervention should be a last resort
High prices alone are no reason to intervene
But leaving a significant supply disruption to the
market could generate a significant economic cost
The market will always balance supply and
demand, given time and at the right price
Can the market cope with the disruption using
existing resources and mechanisms?
Will there be a significant cost?
Every supply disruption is different
Speed & unity of response are key factors
© OECD/IEA - 2012
Primary Goal of IEA Oil Market Analysis is to Inform Government Policy Makers
OECD Total Oil Stocks Scenario
2500
2600
2700
2800
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
mb
Range 2006-2010 Avg 2006-20102010 2011e*2011 June ScenarioJuly Scenario
* OPEC crude production assummed f lat at 30.3 mb/d from August 2011 onwards
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
kb/d US GoM Hurricane Outages
Range 2004-08 20052008 5-yr avg
Gustav & Ike
Katrina & Rita
Despite similar volume loss, 2008 was not 2005 all over again
In 2008, falling demand, higher stocks, higher spare OPEC capacity, plenty idle refining capacity elsewhere & falling prices, so no stock release
In 2011, Libya Collective Action aimed to provide liquidity and operational flexibility to a market confronting lost Libyan barrels, uncertain OPEC response and 3Q demand increase
Good data, analysis & communications are an ongoing necessity, not just for during crises
© OECD/IEA - 2012
OMR focus on supply/demand fundamentals Table 1
WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND(million barrels per day)
2008 2009 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012
OECD DEMAND
North America 24.2 23.3 23.4 23.7 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.8 23.3 23.6 23.4 23.5 23.3 23.1 23.6 23.5 23.4
Europe 15.4 14.7 14.3 14.3 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.2 14.1 14.7 14.1 14.3 13.7 13.6 14.3 14.1 13.9
Pacific 8.1 7.7 8.2 7.3 7.6 8.1 7.8 8.3 7.1 7.7 8.3 7.9 8.6 7.4 7.6 8.1 7.9
Total OECD 47.6 45.6 46.0 45.3 46.7 46.7 46.2 46.3 44.5 45.9 45.7 45.6 45.6 44.1 45.5 45.7 45.2
NON-OECD DEMAND
FSU 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.8
Europe 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
China 7.7 8.1 8.6 9.1 8.9 9.7 9.1 9.5 9.5 9.3 9.7 9.5 9.8 9.9 9.7 10.1 9.9
Other Asia 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.2 10.6 10.4 10.7 10.7 10.4 10.9 10.7 10.9 11.0 10.7 11.2 10.9
Latin America 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.7
Middle East 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.8 8.3 7.7 7.8 7.6 8.0 8.5 8.0 8.0 7.7 8.2 8.6 8.1 8.2
Africa 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Total Non-OECD 38.9 39.9 40.8 42.2 42.5 43.1 42.2 42.7 43.4 43.6 44.1 43.5 43.7 44.6 45.0 45.4 44.7
Total Demand1 86.6 85.6 86.8 87.5 89.1 89.8 88.3 89.0 87.9 89.6 89.8 89.1 89.3 88.7 90.5 91.1 89.9
OECD SUPPLY
North America4
13.3 13.6 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.1 14.4 14.3 14.6 15.0 14.6 15.0 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.1
Europe 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.1 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.8 3.7
Pacific 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6
Total OECD 18.8 18.8 19.1 18.8 18.5 19.1 18.9 19.0 18.6 18.7 19.4 18.9 19.4 19.1 19.3 19.8 19.4
NON-OECD SUPPLY
FSU 12.8 13.3 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.7 13.9 13.8
Europe 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
China 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2
Other Asia2
3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5
Latin America2,4
3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4
Middle East 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5
Africa2
2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3
Total Non-OECD 28.4 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.8 30.1 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 30.1 29.9
Processing Gains3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3
Global Biofuels4 1.4 1.6 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.9
Total Non-OPEC2 50.6 51.5 52.1 52.5 52.6 53.1 52.6 52.7 52.3 52.7 53.1 52.7 53.0 53.1 53.5 54.2 53.5
Non-OPEC: Historical Composition2 49.6 51.5 52.1 52.5 52.6 53.1 52.6 52.7 52.3 52.7 53.1 52.7 53.0 53.1 53.5 54.2 53.5
OPEC
Crude5
31.6 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.4 30.0 29.5 30.0 30.4 30.0
NGLs 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.3
Total OPEC2 36.1 34.1 34.5 34.4 35.0 35.1 34.8 35.7 35.2 35.8 36.3 35.7
OPEC: Historical Composition2 37.1 34.1 34.5 34.4 35.0 35.1 34.8 35.7 35.2 35.8 36.3 35.7
Total Supply6 86.7 85.6 86.6 87.0 87.6 88.2 87.3 88.5 87.5 88.4 89.4 88.5
STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS
Reported OECD
Industry 0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.9 -0.1 -0.8 0.1 -0.4 0.5 -0.1 -0.7 -0.2
Government 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.1 -0.1
Total 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.9 -0.2 -0.7 0.1 -0.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3
Floating Storage/Oil in Transit 0.0 0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
Miscellaneous to balance7
-0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -1.4 -1.1 -0.6 -0.9 -0.3 -0.7 -0.4 0.3 -0.3
Total Stock Ch. & Misc 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -1.5 -1.7 -1.0 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -0.4 -0.6
Memo items:
Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch.8 31.5 29.2 29.5 29.8 31.1 31.2 30.4 30.6 29.9 31.1 30.8 30.6 30.1 29.4 30.5 30.4 30.1
Adjusted Call on OPEC + Stock ch.9 31.3 28.8 29.1 28.3 30.0 30.6 29.5 30.3 29.2 30.7 31.1 30.3 29.6 28.8 30.0 29.8 29.5
1 Measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international marine bunkers, refinery fuel, crude for direct burning,
oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply.
2 Other Asia includes Indonesia throughout. Latin America excludes Ecuador throughout. Africa excludes Angola throughout.
Total Non-OPEC excludes all countries that were members of OPEC at 1 January 2009. Non-OPEC Historical Composition excludes countries that were OPEC members at that point in time.
Total OPEC comprises all countries which were OPEC members at 1 January 2009. OPEC Historical Composition comprises countries which were OPEC members at that point in time. 3 Net volumetric gains and losses in the refining process and marine transportation losses.4 As of the July 2010 OMR, Global Biofuels comprise all world biofuel production including fuel ethanol from the US and Brazil.
5 As of the March 2006 OMR, Venezuelan Orinoco heavy crude production is included within Venezuelan crude estimates. Orimulsion fuel remains within the OPEC NGL and
non-conventional category, but Orimulsion production reportedly ceased from January 2007.
6 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply.
7 Includes changes in non-reported stocks in OECD and non-OECD areas.8 Equals the arithmetic difference between total demand minus total non-OPEC supply minus OPEC NGLs.
9 Equals the "Call on OPEC + Stock Ch." with "Miscellaneous to balance" added for historical periods and with an average of "Miscellaneous to balance" for the most recent 8 quarters added for forecast periods.
© OECD/IEA - 2012
The bottom of the table tells us a lot
‘Call on OPEC Crude & Stock Change’ = Global oil demand minus (Non-OPEC oil supply + OPEC NGLs)
This is the notional amount of crude OPEC would need to produce each quarter to hold stocks steady
Can OPEC really respond to the “Call”? Does it want to?
Miscellaneous to balance: the difference between historical supply and demand, net of identifiable OECD stock changes
We do not try to ‘force’ the global balance to get mtb=0
Negative mtb suggests non-OECD stock draws, that demand is over-stated, supply is understated or a combination of these
Table 1
WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND(million barrels per day)
2008 2009 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012
OECD DEMAND
North America 24.2 23.3 23.4 23.7 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.8 23.3 23.6 23.4 23.5 23.3 23.1 23.6 23.5 23.4
Europe 15.4 14.7 14.3 14.3 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.2 14.1 14.7 14.1 14.3 13.7 13.6 14.3 14.1 13.9
Pacific 8.1 7.7 8.2 7.3 7.6 8.1 7.8 8.3 7.1 7.7 8.3 7.9 8.6 7.4 7.6 8.1 7.9
Total OECD 47.6 45.6 46.0 45.3 46.7 46.7 46.2 46.3 44.5 45.9 45.7 45.6 45.6 44.1 45.5 45.7 45.2
NON-OECD DEMAND
FSU 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.8
Europe 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
China 7.7 8.1 8.6 9.1 8.9 9.7 9.1 9.5 9.5 9.3 9.7 9.5 9.8 9.9 9.7 10.1 9.9
Other Asia 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.2 10.6 10.4 10.7 10.7 10.4 10.9 10.7 10.9 11.0 10.7 11.2 10.9
Latin America 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.7
Middle East 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.8 8.3 7.7 7.8 7.6 8.0 8.5 8.0 8.0 7.7 8.2 8.6 8.1 8.2
Africa 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Total Non-OECD 38.9 39.9 40.8 42.2 42.5 43.1 42.2 42.7 43.4 43.6 44.1 43.5 43.7 44.6 45.0 45.4 44.7
Total Demand1 86.6 85.6 86.8 87.5 89.1 89.8 88.3 89.0 87.9 89.6 89.8 89.1 89.3 88.7 90.5 91.1 89.9
OECD SUPPLY
North America4
13.3 13.6 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.1 14.4 14.3 14.6 15.0 14.6 15.0 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.1
Europe 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.1 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.8 3.7
Pacific 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6
Total OECD 18.8 18.8 19.1 18.8 18.5 19.1 18.9 19.0 18.6 18.7 19.4 18.9 19.4 19.1 19.3 19.8 19.4
NON-OECD SUPPLY
FSU 12.8 13.3 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.7 13.9 13.8
Europe 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
China 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2
Other Asia2
3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5
Latin America2,4
3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4
Middle East 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5
Africa2
2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3
Total Non-OECD 28.4 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.8 30.1 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 30.1 29.9
Processing Gains3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3
Global Biofuels4 1.4 1.6 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.9
Total Non-OPEC2 50.6 51.5 52.1 52.5 52.6 53.1 52.6 52.7 52.3 52.7 53.1 52.7 53.0 53.1 53.5 54.2 53.5
Non-OPEC: Historical Composition2 49.6 51.5 52.1 52.5 52.6 53.1 52.6 52.7 52.3 52.7 53.1 52.7 53.0 53.1 53.5 54.2 53.5
OPEC
Crude5
31.6 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.4 30.0 29.5 30.0 30.4 30.0
NGLs 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.3
Total OPEC2 36.1 34.1 34.5 34.4 35.0 35.1 34.8 35.7 35.2 35.8 36.3 35.7
OPEC: Historical Composition2 37.1 34.1 34.5 34.4 35.0 35.1 34.8 35.7 35.2 35.8 36.3 35.7
Total Supply6 86.7 85.6 86.6 87.0 87.6 88.2 87.3 88.5 87.5 88.4 89.4 88.5
STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS
Reported OECD
Industry 0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.9 -0.1 -0.8 0.1 -0.4 0.5 -0.1 -0.7 -0.2
Government 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.1 -0.1
Total 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.9 -0.2 -0.7 0.1 -0.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3
Floating Storage/Oil in Transit 0.0 0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
Miscellaneous to balance7
-0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -1.4 -1.1 -0.6 -0.9 -0.3 -0.7 -0.4 0.3 -0.3
Total Stock Ch. & Misc 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -1.5 -1.7 -1.0 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -0.4 -0.6
Memo items:
Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch.8 31.5 29.2 29.5 29.8 31.1 31.2 30.4 30.6 29.9 31.1 30.8 30.6 30.1 29.4 30.5 30.4 30.1
Adjusted Call on OPEC + Stock ch.9 31.3 28.8 29.1 28.3 30.0 30.6 29.5 30.3 29.2 30.7 31.1 30.3 29.6 28.8 30.0 29.8 29.5
1 Measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international marine bunkers, refinery fuel, crude for direct burning,
oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply.
2 Other Asia includes Indonesia throughout. Latin America excludes Ecuador throughout. Africa excludes Angola throughout.
Total Non-OPEC excludes all countries that were members of OPEC at 1 January 2009. Non-OPEC Historical Composition excludes countries that were OPEC members at that point in time.
Total OPEC comprises all countries which were OPEC members at 1 January 2009. OPEC Historical Composition comprises countries which were OPEC members at that point in time. 3 Net volumetric gains and losses in the refining process and marine transportation losses.4 As of the July 2010 OMR, Global Biofuels comprise all world biofuel production including fuel ethanol from the US and Brazil.
5 As of the March 2006 OMR, Venezuelan Orinoco heavy crude production is included within Venezuelan crude estimates. Orimulsion fuel remains within the OPEC NGL and
non-conventional category, but Orimulsion production reportedly ceased from January 2007.
6 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply.
7 Includes changes in non-reported stocks in OECD and non-OECD areas.8 Equals the arithmetic difference between total demand minus total non-OPEC supply minus OPEC NGLs.
9 Equals the "Call on OPEC + Stock Ch." with "Miscellaneous to balance" added for historical periods and with an average of "Miscellaneous to balance" for the most recent 8 quarters added for forecast periods.
© OECD/IEA - 2012
In conclusion
Data collection underpins the projections
Sisyphean task
Non-OECD ascent raises new challenges
Objective analysis and forecasts are vital for decision making at the time of a supply crisis
Modeling approach is kept deliberately simple
An outlook rests on key assumptions – if those change, the forecast will change
Expect the unexpected – weather, natural disasters, conflict, mechanical stoppages can all influence supply/demand at the margin
Successful forecasting/projecting relies just as much upon analyst’s judgment as it does
on mechanical modeling.
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