Science Based Policy for Addressing Energy and Environmental Problems Robert Sawyer Class of 1935 Professor of Energy Emeritus University of California.
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Science Based Policy for Science Based Policy for Addressing Energy and Addressing Energy and
Environmental ProblemsEnvironmental Problems
Robert Sawyer
Class of 1935 Professor of Energy Emeritus University of California at Berkeley
32nd International Symposium on Combustion
McGill University, Montreal
6 August 2008
Science for Policy Decisions—Science for Policy Decisions—Three Key AreasThree Key Areas
• Air Pollution
• Global Warming
• Fuel Resources
Global Average Radiative ForcingGlobal Average Radiative ForcingIPCC Fourth Assessment, 2007IPCC Fourth Assessment, 2007
Keeling Curve, COKeeling Curve, CO22 at Mauna Loa at Mauna LoaRed line is 57% of fossil fuel CORed line is 57% of fossil fuel CO22 emissions emissions
Paleoclimate COPaleoclimate CO22 and and
Temperature from Ice Core DataTemperature from Ice Core Data
Four Global Warming QuestionsFour Global Warming Questions
• 1) Is global warming occurring ? (science)
• 2) What is the cause? (science)
• 3) What are the likely consequences? (science based prediction)
• 4) What should we do about it? (policy)
Global Warming is OccurringGlobal Warming is Occurring
• Historical records of land and sea temperatures
• Satellite measurements
Global Warming is OccurringGlobal Warming is OccurringMean Land and Ocean TemperaturesMean Land and Ocean Temperatures
Greenhouse Gas Warming is Greenhouse Gas Warming is Moderated by Negative ForcingsModerated by Negative Forcings
We Are the Cause ofWe Are the Cause ofGlobal WarmingGlobal Warming
• Anthropogenic contributions dominate radiative forcings that control earth’s temperature
• IPCC Fourth Assessment: “There is a very high confidence that the global average new effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W/m2”
The Consequences of Global The Consequences of Global Warming are UncertainWarming are Uncertain
• Some effects are already observable– Arctic ice is shrinking more rapidly than
predicted– Tundra melting, increased Greenland ice cap
summer melt, breakup of West Antarctic shelf
• Model based projections match historical temperature data
2007 Minimum Sea Ice Extent2007 Minimum Sea Ice Extent
September 1979-1983 Average
September 2002-2006 Average
Universität Bremen
Implications for CombustionImplications for CombustionGlobal WarmingGlobal Warming
• Improve efficiency of combustion and end-use devices (efficiency, efficiency, efficiency)
• Carbon capture and sequestration presents challenges and opportunities
• Control of more frequent large forest fires
• Lower carbon alternatives to petroleum
Fossil Fuel Resources far Fossil Fuel Resources far Exceed 1750–2004 ConsumptionExceed 1750–2004 Consumption
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Oil Gas Coal
Gt
C
Reserve growth
Proven reserves*
Emissions (CDIAC)
EIA
IPCC
CO
2 (p
pm
v)
600
400
200
100
300
0
500
*Oil & gas from EIA
** Unconventional oil & gas; uncertain, could be large
Other
MethaneHydrates
Shale Oil
Tar Sands
? **
Source: Hansen 2006, www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/agu_communicating.pdf
Production Costs and Supplies Production Costs and Supplies of Liquid Transportation Fuelsof Liquid Transportation Fuels
Farrell and BrandtFarrell and Brandt
Implications for CombustionImplications for CombustionFuel ResourcesFuel Resources
• Lower carbon alternatives to petroleum
• Electricity begins to displace combustion fuels in surface transportation
• Hydrogen a long term (mid-century)
option
• Prepare for a phase down of carbon fuels
Adverse Health Effects EvidenceAdverse Health Effects Evidence
• Human clinical exposures
• Animal studies
• Epidemiology– Large samples (statistical strength)– Relevant, real-world exposures– Uncertain exposures
• Shift from pulmonary to cardiovascular effects
Mortality Relative Risks fromMortality Relative Risks from10-µg/m3 Increase in PM10-µg/m3 Increase in PM2.52.5
Jarrett, et al.
Particulate MatterParticulate Matter
• TSP: total suspended particulate
• PM10
• PM2.5
• PMx
• Nanoparticles
Size (and Chemical Composition) Size (and Chemical Composition) Matters …but are not regulatedMatters …but are not regulated
oxy-PAH’s
Implications for CombustionImplications for CombustionAir PollutionAir Pollution
• Industrialized countries have reduced combustion generated pollutant emissions [gm/MJ] by about 98%– Total emissions diminished by growth– Transfer to developing countries
• Urgent public health need to reduce cooking and heating emissions in agrarian and developing societies
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