Science Based Policy for Addressing Energy and Environmental Problems Robert Sawyer Class of 1935 Professor of Energy Emeritus University of California.

Science Based Policy for Science Based Policy for Addressing Energy and Addressing Energy and

Environmental ProblemsEnvironmental Problems

Robert Sawyer

Class of 1935 Professor of Energy Emeritus University of California at Berkeley

32nd International Symposium on Combustion

McGill University, Montreal

6 August 2008

Science for Policy Decisions—Science for Policy Decisions—Three Key AreasThree Key Areas

• Air Pollution

• Global Warming

• Fuel Resources

GLOBAL WARMINGGLOBAL WARMING

Global Average Radiative ForcingGlobal Average Radiative ForcingIPCC Fourth Assessment, 2007IPCC Fourth Assessment, 2007

Keeling Curve, COKeeling Curve, CO22 at Mauna Loa at Mauna LoaRed line is 57% of fossil fuel CORed line is 57% of fossil fuel CO22 emissions emissions

Paleoclimate COPaleoclimate CO22 and and

Temperature from Ice Core DataTemperature from Ice Core Data

Four Global Warming QuestionsFour Global Warming Questions

• 1) Is global warming occurring ? (science)

• 2) What is the cause? (science)

• 3) What are the likely consequences? (science based prediction)

• 4) What should we do about it? (policy)

Global Warming is OccurringGlobal Warming is Occurring

• Historical records of land and sea temperatures

• Satellite measurements

Global Warming is OccurringGlobal Warming is OccurringMean Land and Ocean TemperaturesMean Land and Ocean Temperatures

Annual Mean Global TemperatureAnnual Mean Global Temperature

Greenhouse Gas Warming is Greenhouse Gas Warming is Moderated by Negative ForcingsModerated by Negative Forcings

We Are the Cause ofWe Are the Cause ofGlobal WarmingGlobal Warming

• Anthropogenic contributions dominate radiative forcings that control earth’s temperature

• IPCC Fourth Assessment: “There is a very high confidence that the global average new effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W/m2”

The Consequences of Global The Consequences of Global Warming are UncertainWarming are Uncertain

• Some effects are already observable– Arctic ice is shrinking more rapidly than

predicted– Tundra melting, increased Greenland ice cap

summer melt, breakup of West Antarctic shelf

• Model based projections match historical temperature data

2007 Minimum Sea Ice Extent2007 Minimum Sea Ice Extent

September 1979-1983 Average

September 2002-2006 Average

Universität Bremen

Sea Level Rise ImpactSea Level Rise Impact

Implications for CombustionImplications for CombustionGlobal WarmingGlobal Warming

• Improve efficiency of combustion and end-use devices (efficiency, efficiency, efficiency)

• Carbon capture and sequestration presents challenges and opportunities

• Control of more frequent large forest fires

• Lower carbon alternatives to petroleum

FUEL RESOURCESFUEL RESOURCES

Fossil Fuel Resources far Fossil Fuel Resources far Exceed 1750–2004 ConsumptionExceed 1750–2004 Consumption

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Oil Gas Coal

Gt

C

Reserve growth

Proven reserves*

Emissions (CDIAC)

EIA

IPCC

CO

2 (p

pm

v)

600

400

200

100

300

0

500

*Oil & gas from EIA

** Unconventional oil & gas; uncertain, could be large

Other

MethaneHydrates

Shale Oil

Tar Sands

? **

Source: Hansen 2006, www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/agu_communicating.pdf

Production Costs and Supplies Production Costs and Supplies of Liquid Transportation Fuelsof Liquid Transportation Fuels

Farrell and BrandtFarrell and Brandt

Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, New Passenger CarsNew Passenger Cars

Fossil Fuel Use TrendsFossil Fuel Use Trends

note different scales

Implications for CombustionImplications for CombustionFuel ResourcesFuel Resources

• Lower carbon alternatives to petroleum

• Electricity begins to displace combustion fuels in surface transportation

• Hydrogen a long term (mid-century)

option

• Prepare for a phase down of carbon fuels

Los Angeles

Beijing

AIR POLLUTIONAIR POLLUTION

Guatemala

Air PollutantsAir Pollutants

• CO

• SO2

• NO2

• O3

• Pb

• Particulates

• Air contaminants/air toxics

Adverse Health Effects EvidenceAdverse Health Effects Evidence

• Human clinical exposures

• Animal studies

• Epidemiology– Large samples (statistical strength)– Relevant, real-world exposures– Uncertain exposures

• Shift from pulmonary to cardiovascular effects

Air Quality GoalsAir Quality Goals

Mortality Relative Risks fromMortality Relative Risks from10-µg/m3 Increase in PM10-µg/m3 Increase in PM2.52.5

Jarrett, et al.

U.S. EPA Diesel Emissions U.S. EPA Diesel Emissions and Fuel Regulationsand Fuel Regulations

Particulate MatterParticulate Matter

• TSP: total suspended particulate

• PM10

• PM2.5

• PMx

• Nanoparticles

Size (and Chemical Composition) Size (and Chemical Composition) Matters …but are not regulatedMatters …but are not regulated

oxy-PAH’s

Implications for CombustionImplications for CombustionIndoor Air PollutionIndoor Air Pollution

Implications for CombustionImplications for CombustionAir PollutionAir Pollution

• Industrialized countries have reduced combustion generated pollutant emissions [gm/MJ] by about 98%– Total emissions diminished by growth– Transfer to developing countries

• Urgent public health need to reduce cooking and heating emissions in agrarian and developing societies