Role of Genetically Modified Crops in Future Global Supply, Demand and Prices of Food: Overview Mark W. Rosegrant and Anthony Cavalieri Environment and.
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Role of Genetically Modified Crops Role of Genetically Modified Crops in Future Global Supply, Demandin Future Global Supply, Demand
and Prices of Food: Overviewand Prices of Food: Overview
Mark W. Rosegrant Mark W. Rosegrant and and Anthony CavalieriAnthony CavalieriEnvironment and Production Technology DivisionEnvironment and Production Technology Division
Delivering Agricultural Biotechnology to African Farmers:Delivering Agricultural Biotechnology to African Farmers:Linking Economic Research to Decision MakingLinking Economic Research to Decision Making
Organized by: IFPRI, UNCST, ScifodeOrganized by: IFPRI, UNCST, ScifodeEntebbe, UgandaEntebbe, UgandaMay 19-21, 2009May 19-21, 2009
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
OutlineOutline
A World of Growing Food ScarcityA World of Growing Food Scarcity
Biotechnology for Poor FarmersBiotechnology for Poor Farmers
Constraints to the Use of Constraints to the Use of Agricultural BiotechnologyAgricultural Biotechnology
Conclusions and Policy OptionsConclusions and Policy Options
Page 2
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Hunger and Malnutrition: Hunger and Malnutrition: Developing WorldDeveloping World
Page 6
Data source: FAO 2006; 2008
Number of hungry people in millionsNumber of hungry people in millions
Global Price of Maize:Global Price of Maize:Baseline and Without Climate Change, 2000-2050Baseline and Without Climate Change, 2000-2050
Page 5Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations for HadCM3/SRES B2 scenario Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations for HadCM3/SRES B2 scenario (with IMAGE temperature and CO2 fertilization effects, April, 2008) (with IMAGE temperature and CO2 fertilization effects, April, 2008)
Baseline No climate change
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Contributing Factors to Future ScarcityContributing Factors to Future Scarcity
Rapid income growthRapid income growth
Underinvestment in agricultural Underinvestment in agricultural productivity and technologyproductivity and technology
Water and land scarcity, biofuelsWater and land scarcity, biofuels
Climate change Climate change
High energy prices—high input and High energy prices—high input and transport coststransport costs
Population growth and urbanizationPopulation growth and urbanization
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Per Capita Meat Consumption, Per Capita Meat Consumption, 2000-20502000-2050
20
11
28
83
58
11
13
24
4
19
0 20 40 60 80 100
CWANA
SSA
ESAP
NAE
LAC
kg/person per year
2000 2000-2050
Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections, Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections, SeptemberSeptember 2007 2007
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Sources of Cereal Production Growth, Sources of Cereal Production Growth, projected, 2000-2050projected, 2000-2050
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
LAC ESAP SSA CWANA NAE
An
nu
al G
row
th R
ate
s 2
00
0-2
05
0area expansion yield improvement
Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections, Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections, SeptemberSeptember 2007 2007
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What do Farmers in Developing What do Farmers in Developing Countries Need?Countries Need?
Improved yieldsImproved yields
Nutritional enhancementNutritional enhancement
Abiotic and biotic stress tolerance Abiotic and biotic stress tolerance
leading to stable yields and productionleading to stable yields and production
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Opportunities with Non-biotech Opportunities with Non-biotech TechnologyTechnology
Existing technologies Existing technologies • Efficient irrigationEfficient irrigation• Fertilizer useFertilizer use• Modern, high yielding Modern, high yielding
varietiesvarieties• HybridsHybrids
Preferred to biotech when:Preferred to biotech when:• Solve important problemsSolve important problems• Attract investmentAttract investment• Cost efficientCost efficient
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http://www.ars.usda.gov/images/docs/3498_3682/surface_drip03jun.jpg
http://aspenlandscapes.com/picts/drip-irrigation-stake-placing.jpg
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Opportunities with BiotechnologyOpportunities with Biotechnology
Can we define the place of Can we define the place of biotechnology in contributing to biotechnology in contributing to productivity and food security?productivity and food security?
• Tools to support traditional breeding Tools to support traditional breeding (molecular markers, tissue culture (molecular markers, tissue culture diagnostics etc)diagnostics etc)
• Transgenics where variation doesn’t exist Transgenics where variation doesn’t exist in the crop (e.g. drought, heat and salinity in the crop (e.g. drought, heat and salinity tolerance, insect and disease resistance) tolerance, insect and disease resistance) and the cost of development is justified by and the cost of development is justified by the resulting cultivarsthe resulting cultivars
Page 12
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Can Biotechnology Address Can Biotechnology Address Developing Country Needs?Developing Country Needs?
Experience in developed worldExperience in developed world
Experience in developing worldExperience in developing world
Research investmentResearch investment
Scientific capacity in developing Scientific capacity in developing countriescountries
Progress in plant scienceProgress in plant science
IFPRI modeling resultsIFPRI modeling results
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Experience in developed worldExperience in developed world
Broad experience with transgenics in US Broad experience with transgenics in US and Canada and Canada
Four crops: Four crops: • MaizeMaize• SoybeansSoybeans• CottonCotton• CanolaCanola
Two traits: Two traits: • Bt – Bt – Bacillus thuringiensisBacillus thuringiensis• RR – Roundup ReadyRR – Roundup Ready
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Experience with GM in developing worldExperience with GM in developing world
Page 15
Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2008:Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2008:Industrial and Developing Countries (mil ha)Industrial and Developing Countries (mil ha)
Source: Clive James, 2009
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Pipeline for traits: Pipeline for traits: Either currently available or in developmentEither currently available or in development
Soybean and MaizeSoybean and Maize• YieldYield• Nutrient-use efficiencyNutrient-use efficiency• Abiotic stress toleranceAbiotic stress tolerance• Disease and insect resistanceDisease and insect resistance
Oil Palm, Cassava, and SugarcaneOil Palm, Cassava, and Sugarcane• Abiotic stress toleranceAbiotic stress tolerance• Disease and insect resistanceDisease and insect resistance
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Experience with GM in developing worldExperience with GM in developing world
Bt Insect ResistanceBt Insect Resistance
Brinjal (eggplant)Brinjal (eggplant)
CowpeaCowpea
RiceRice
CottonCotton
MaizeMaize
Other traitsOther traits Vitamin A sorghumVitamin A sorghum
Golden RiceGolden Rice
Fungal resistant Fungal resistant bananabanana
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Experience with GM in developing worldExperience with GM in developing world
Source: Min. of Agriculture GOI
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Experience with GM in developing worldExperience with GM in developing world
Yield Increase 31-90%
Reduction in insecticide sprays
39-75%
Profit Increase/ha 76-250%
Summary of public evaluation of Summary of public evaluation of Bt cotton in India Bt cotton in India
(7 studies)(7 studies)
Source: James 2007
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R&D investment in biotechnologyR&D investment in biotechnology
Public R&D Annual Spending
(US$ million)
Private R&D Annual Spending (US$ million)
Wheat Maize Wheat Maize
<$200 <$100 <$200 ~$1500
Source: Maize: Company and public organization websites. Wheat: Hans Braun CIMMYT, Pers. Comm.
Large sums of money are available for crop Large sums of money are available for crop improvement when there is a return on the improvement when there is a return on the investmentinvestment
Significant activity on biotechnology in the Significant activity on biotechnology in the public sector that will result in products in the public sector that will result in products in the coming yearscoming years
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R&D investment in biotechnologyR&D investment in biotechnology
Willingness of private companies to Willingness of private companies to make IP and technology available make IP and technology available
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/8/88/GoldenRice-WhiteRice.jpg/280px-GoldenRice-WhiteRice.jpg
• Syngenta: Golden RiceSyngenta: Golden Rice
• Monsanto: Drought Monsanto: Drought resistant maize for Africaresistant maize for Africa
• DuPont: Nutritional DuPont: Nutritional enhancement of sorghum enhancement of sorghum for Africafor Africa
http://www.africanews.com/documents/18/2c/182c7b1a72a23fe19371d6038b8be22f.article.jpg
http://www.africancrops.net/rockefeller/crops/sorghum/pics/rattunda-sorghum2.jpg
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R&D investment in biotechnologyR&D investment in biotechnology
Growing public effortsGrowing public efforts
• Bt cowpea (USAID)Bt cowpea (USAID)
• Bt maize (Syngenta Foundation)Bt maize (Syngenta Foundation)
• Bt cotton (Government of India)Bt cotton (Government of India)
• Golden RiceGolden Rice
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Current progress in plant scienceCurrent progress in plant science
Scientific progress: reasons for optimismScientific progress: reasons for optimism
• Underlying common molecular biology and Underlying common molecular biology and biochemistry for all cropsbiochemistry for all crops
• High through-put technologies for molecular High through-put technologies for molecular breeding, gene discovery, and manipulationbreeding, gene discovery, and manipulation
• Uses of genomic sequence informationUses of genomic sequence information– Molecular markersMolecular markers
– Gene discoveryGene discovery
• High level of spending for medical High level of spending for medical applicationsapplications
• Complete genome sequences for several Complete genome sequences for several cropscrops
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Current progress in plant scienceCurrent progress in plant science
Source: Edgerton 2009 Plant Physiol. 148:7-13
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Current progress in plant scienceCurrent progress in plant science
Source: Edgerton 2009 Plant Physiol. 149: 7-13
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Projected Effect of GM on food pricesProjected Effect of GM on food prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Price
($/m
t)
Rice
Baseline Zero-GMO
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Price
($/m
t)
Maize
Baseline Zero-GMO
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Price
($/m
t)
CassavaBaseline Zero-GMO
GM lowers GM lowers price of cropsprice of crops
Source: IFPRI IMPACT ModelSlide 38
Constraints to the Use of Constraints to the Use of Agricultural BiotechnologyAgricultural Biotechnology
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What are the Constraints? What are the Constraints?
Limited profit opportunities in Limited profit opportunities in developing countriesdeveloping countries
Too long term, expensive, and Too long term, expensive, and controversial for public sectorcontroversial for public sector
Public-sector research tends to be Public-sector research tends to be project based and subject to fashions project based and subject to fashions in funding in funding
Complex product developmentComplex product development
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What are the Constraints?What are the Constraints?
Limited infrastructure and established Limited infrastructure and established seed systems in developing countriesseed systems in developing countries• Timely production of adequate foundation Timely production of adequate foundation
seedseed• Hybrid seed productionHybrid seed production• Appropriate promotion of new varietiesAppropriate promotion of new varieties• Seed costsSeed costs• Market distortions caused by government Market distortions caused by government
seed companiesseed companies Delivery issues for non-transgenic Delivery issues for non-transgenic
modern high-yielding varietiesmodern high-yielding varieties
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What are the Constraints?What are the Constraints?
RegulatoryRegulatory
• Lack of systems and capacity in Lack of systems and capacity in many developing countriesmany developing countries
• High costHigh cost
• Long term nature of environmental Long term nature of environmental risksrisks
Product stewardship Product stewardship
• Challenges for public sectorChallenges for public sector
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What are the Constraints?What are the Constraints?
Organized, highly effective opponents Organized, highly effective opponents of technology motivated by concerns of technology motivated by concerns about:about:
• RisksRisks
• TechnologyTechnology
• MultinationalsMultinationals
• TradeTrade
• Etc.Etc.
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ConclusionsConclusions
Biotechnology can contribute to food Biotechnology can contribute to food production and security in developing production and security in developing countries.countries.
Traits in the development pipeline will Traits in the development pipeline will have greater value for poor farmers.have greater value for poor farmers.
Rapid advancement of the science of Rapid advancement of the science of biotechnology applied to crop plants is biotechnology applied to crop plants is refining the necessary tools.refining the necessary tools.
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ConclusionsConclusions
Acceptance and demand by farmers has Acceptance and demand by farmers has driven large scale adoption of transgenic driven large scale adoption of transgenic cropscrops
• This includes adoption in large-scale This includes adoption in large-scale crops in major markets.crops in major markets.
• It also includes illegal adoption preceding It also includes illegal adoption preceding regulatory approval.regulatory approval.
• Development of crops with traits of value Development of crops with traits of value to consumers or food companies would to consumers or food companies would further advance acceptance and adoption.further advance acceptance and adoption.
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ConclusionsConclusions
Public sector development of Public sector development of transgenic cropstransgenic crops
• Long term nature of product developmentLong term nature of product development
• Dependence on short term, project based Dependence on short term, project based fundingfunding
• Limited seed systems for delivery of Limited seed systems for delivery of productsproducts
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Science Policies to Enhance the Benefits Science Policies to Enhance the Benefits of Biotechnology for the Poorof Biotechnology for the Poor
Provide advanced molecular marker tools Provide advanced molecular marker tools and IT support for breeding programs in and IT support for breeding programs in crops of importance to poor farmerscrops of importance to poor farmers
• Large-scale crop improvement effortsLarge-scale crop improvement efforts
• Initiated by the private sector with policy and Initiated by the private sector with policy and financial support, e.g. joint Indian DBT and financial support, e.g. joint Indian DBT and USAID fundingUSAID funding
Explore policies that allow access to Explore policies that allow access to patented basic tools of genetic engineering patented basic tools of genetic engineering (transformation, gene expression etc) to (transformation, gene expression etc) to developing country scientistsdeveloping country scientists
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Science Policies to Enhance the Benefits Science Policies to Enhance the Benefits of Biotechnology for the Poorof Biotechnology for the Poor
Enable developing-country access to patented Enable developing-country access to patented genes (Bt, drought resistance, nitrogen use genes (Bt, drought resistance, nitrogen use efficiency) through innovative IPR, licensing, efficiency) through innovative IPR, licensing, and market segmentationand market segmentation• Combined with efforts to address stewardship, Combined with efforts to address stewardship,
liability, and control issues for the two points aboveliability, and control issues for the two points above
Make genome sequencing capacity in Make genome sequencing capacity in developed countries available to developing developed countries available to developing world scientists to sequence most world scientists to sequence most important developing world crops (cassava, important developing world crops (cassava, teff)teff)
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Science Policies to Enhance the Benefits Science Policies to Enhance the Benefits of Biotechnology for the Poorof Biotechnology for the Poor
Develop stronger collaborations for Develop stronger collaborations for collecting and preserving land races and collecting and preserving land races and wild relatives of crops specieswild relatives of crops species• Svalbard Global Seed Vault is a start Svalbard Global Seed Vault is a start • Policies would need to address the concerns Policies would need to address the concerns
countries about protection of the genetic materialscountries about protection of the genetic materials
Training of developing country scientists in Training of developing country scientists in US or EU labsUS or EU labs• Upon return to their home countries scientists Upon return to their home countries scientists
are on their own with little funding, follow-up or are on their own with little funding, follow-up or incentives for doing research incentives for doing research
• Programs from donors in the developed world Programs from donors in the developed world should address these issuesshould address these issues
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Potential Initiatives for Developing CountriesPotential Initiatives for Developing Countries
Focus on supporting the development of Focus on supporting the development of the private sector in those crops where the private sector in those crops where there are potential markets there are potential markets
• InfrastructureInfrastructure
• Reasonable regulatory regimesReasonable regulatory regimes
• TransparencyTransparency
• IP protectionIP protection
• Capital for start upsCapital for start ups
• Reduced hurdles to forming businesses Reduced hurdles to forming businesses
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