Resilience Measurement in the Philippines
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Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places. Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.
Resilience Measurement in the
Philippines
March 2015
Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.
WHY FOCUS ON RESILIENCE
» Theory of everything
» By being all things, resilience risks being nothing new: “Theory of everything
» Untested assumptions
» If we do not or cannot measure progress in achieving resilience the term will fail to provide a useful concept in informing improved policy and practice.
Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.
a set of capacities
used in connection with shocks / stresses
indexed to developme
nt outcomes
WHAT
Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.
Characteristic approaches
Outcomes-based analysis
HOW
Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.
CHARACTERISTIC APPROACHES
Identify determinants of household and community-level resilience that can be assessed prior to shocks’ occurring and focuses on asset-based approaches as well as intangible processes and functions that support adaptive capacity.
Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.
Impact Indicator
Household Hunger Scale (range 0-4; 4 = most food insecure)
4 1
Outcome Indicators Baseline Endline
1. Adopted one drought resistant crop on > ¼ ha 0 1
2. Using micro-irrigation > 1/10 ha 0 1
3. Used weather forecast to decide when/what to
plant 0 1
4. Family member in a savings group 0 1
5. Current savings > $20 0 1
Total ‘resilience score’ 0 5
Shock/ stress
IS THIS RESILIENCE?
Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.
Financial inclusion
Income diversification
Social capital
Severity of typhoon damage
Food security
Asset recovery
CAPACITIES SHOCK
EXPOSURE OUTCOMES
OUTCOME-BASED ANALYSIS
Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.
MERCY CORPS’ APPROACH
1. Identify key resilience capacities
2. Monitor and evaluate program contribution to resilience capacities
3. Test resilience capacities against shocks and stressors
Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.
TABANGKO- PHILIPPINES
Typhoon Yolanda in November 2013
Unconditional cash transfer
» 25,000 beneficiaries
» Western and Eastern Leyte and Northern Cebu
Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.
PROGRAM THEORY OF CHANGE
Intended
Impacts
Intended
Outcomes
Activities Provision of
Emergency Cash Assistance
Prevention of productive
asset shedding
Increased livelihood resilience
Increased recovery to pre-Yolanda
status
Re-establishment of livelihood assets and activities
Financial Literacy and Promotion of Savings Behavior
Increased use of bank
accounts and other financial
products
Increased propensity to
save
Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
Financial inclusion
Does financial inclusion bolster household resilience to natural disasters?
Which financial services are linked to more successful recovery?
Livelihood diversification
Does diversifying sources of income across economic sectors protect livelihoods from natural disasters?
Social capital
How does social capital contribute to disaster resilience and recovery?
How does the contribution of informal sources compare to formal aid?
Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.
ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK
Financial inclusion:
• Use of financial tools
• Financial literacy
Income diversification:
• Number and independence of income sources
Social capital:
• Assistance from other HHs
• Severity of typhoon damage
• Coping strategies index
• Self-reported recovery from Yolanda
• Perceived ability to cope with future shocks
CAPACITIES SHOCK EXPOSURE OUTCOMES
HH CONTROLS
• 2013 HH income, asset index, poverty likelihood (PPI), HH size, HH land ownership, education and literacy of financial decision maker
Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.
STRENGTHS
Integrated into program M&E
Retrospective baseline for pre-shock status
Multivariate regression analysis
Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.
RESULTS Coping
strategies index
(Log)
Reported recovery
from Yolanda
Perceived ability to
cope with future
shocks (Log)
Perceived ability to
cope with a major
natural disaster
Use of Savings, Formal 3.3%
Use of Savings, Informal 1.9% 2.12 8.1% 3.13
Use of Loans, Formal 7.4% 1.70
Use of Loans, Informal 1.31 9.3%
Having a Bank Account
Use of Insurance, any -4.9% 0.73
Diverse Income Sources -2.4% -9.5%
Accessed Community Support -3.8% 2.08
Received Aid from Phil. Gov’t 3.9% 13.6%
Received Aid from INGO(s)
Total 2013 Income (Log) 1.9% 1.18 2.2%
Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.
KEY FINDINGS
Financial inclusion
Having savings or access to credit aided in recovery
Informal financial tools were as effective as formal ones
Livelihood diversification
Having diverse income sources did not contribute to greater resilience
Social capital
Informal support from neighbors was linked to higher use of distressful coping strategies, but also to higher perceived future ability to cope
Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.
USES
Internal
Findings informing our program theories re financial inclusion and resilience
Refining and applying research methodology in other contexts
External
Influencing cash in emergencies field, and livelihoods resilience community
Furthering Mercy Corps’ thought leadership on evidence-based resilience programming
Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.
nadhikari@ph.mercycorps.org
Ninette Adhikari
Do Financial Services Build Disaster Resilience? Examining the Determinants of Recovery from Typhoon Yolanda in the Philippines https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/do-financial-services-build-disaster-resilience
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