Resilience Measurement in the Philippines

Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places. Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.

Resilience Measurement in the

Philippines

March 2015

Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.

WHY FOCUS ON RESILIENCE

» Theory of everything

» By being all things, resilience risks being nothing new: “Theory of everything

» Untested assumptions

» If we do not or cannot measure progress in achieving resilience the term will fail to provide a useful concept in informing improved policy and practice.

Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.

a set of capacities

used in connection with shocks / stresses

indexed to developme

nt outcomes

WHAT

Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.

Characteristic approaches

Outcomes-based analysis

HOW

Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.

CHARACTERISTIC APPROACHES

Identify determinants of household and community-level resilience that can be assessed prior to shocks’ occurring and focuses on asset-based approaches as well as intangible processes and functions that support adaptive capacity.

Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.

Impact Indicator

Household Hunger Scale (range 0-4; 4 = most food insecure)

4 1

Outcome Indicators Baseline Endline

1. Adopted one drought resistant crop on > ¼ ha 0 1

2. Using micro-irrigation > 1/10 ha 0 1

3. Used weather forecast to decide when/what to

plant 0 1

4. Family member in a savings group 0 1

5. Current savings > $20 0 1

Total ‘resilience score’ 0 5

Shock/ stress

IS THIS RESILIENCE?

Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.

Financial inclusion

Income diversification

Social capital

Severity of typhoon damage

Food security

Asset recovery

CAPACITIES SHOCK

EXPOSURE OUTCOMES

OUTCOME-BASED ANALYSIS

Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.

MERCY CORPS’ APPROACH

1. Identify key resilience capacities

2. Monitor and evaluate program contribution to resilience capacities

3. Test resilience capacities against shocks and stressors

Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.

TABANGKO- PHILIPPINES

Typhoon Yolanda in November 2013

Unconditional cash transfer

» 25,000 beneficiaries

» Western and Eastern Leyte and Northern Cebu

Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.

PROGRAM THEORY OF CHANGE

Intended

Impacts

Intended

Outcomes

Activities Provision of

Emergency Cash Assistance

Prevention of productive

asset shedding

Increased livelihood resilience

Increased recovery to pre-Yolanda

status

Re-establishment of livelihood assets and activities

Financial Literacy and Promotion of Savings Behavior

Increased use of bank

accounts and other financial

products

Increased propensity to

save

Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

Financial inclusion

Does financial inclusion bolster household resilience to natural disasters?

Which financial services are linked to more successful recovery?

Livelihood diversification

Does diversifying sources of income across economic sectors protect livelihoods from natural disasters?

Social capital

How does social capital contribute to disaster resilience and recovery?

How does the contribution of informal sources compare to formal aid?

Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.

ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK

Financial inclusion:

• Use of financial tools

• Financial literacy

Income diversification:

• Number and independence of income sources

Social capital:

• Assistance from other HHs

• Severity of typhoon damage

• Coping strategies index

• Self-reported recovery from Yolanda

• Perceived ability to cope with future shocks

CAPACITIES SHOCK EXPOSURE OUTCOMES

HH CONTROLS

• 2013 HH income, asset index, poverty likelihood (PPI), HH size, HH land ownership, education and literacy of financial decision maker

Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.

STRENGTHS

Integrated into program M&E

Retrospective baseline for pre-shock status

Multivariate regression analysis

Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.

RESULTS Coping

strategies index

(Log)

Reported recovery

from Yolanda

Perceived ability to

cope with future

shocks (Log)

Perceived ability to

cope with a major

natural disaster

Use of Savings, Formal 3.3%

Use of Savings, Informal 1.9% 2.12 8.1% 3.13

Use of Loans, Formal 7.4% 1.70

Use of Loans, Informal 1.31 9.3%

Having a Bank Account

Use of Insurance, any -4.9% 0.73

Diverse Income Sources -2.4% -9.5%

Accessed Community Support -3.8% 2.08

Received Aid from Phil. Gov’t 3.9% 13.6%

Received Aid from INGO(s)

Total 2013 Income (Log) 1.9% 1.18 2.2%

Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.

KEY FINDINGS

Financial inclusion

Having savings or access to credit aided in recovery

Informal financial tools were as effective as formal ones

Livelihood diversification

Having diverse income sources did not contribute to greater resilience

Social capital

Informal support from neighbors was linked to higher use of distressful coping strategies, but also to higher perceived future ability to cope

Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.

USES

Internal

Findings informing our program theories re financial inclusion and resilience

Refining and applying research methodology in other contexts

External

Influencing cash in emergencies field, and livelihoods resilience community

Furthering Mercy Corps’ thought leadership on evidence-based resilience programming

Saving and improving lives in the world’s toughest places.

[email protected]

Ninette Adhikari

Do Financial Services Build Disaster Resilience? Examining the Determinants of Recovery from Typhoon Yolanda in the Philippines https://www.mercycorps.org/research-resources/do-financial-services-build-disaster-resilience