Regional Variations of Demographic Transitions: China’s Changing Demographic Landscapes Max Lu Department of Geography Kansas State University maxlu@ksu.edu.

Regional Variations of Demographic Transitions: China’s Changing Demographic Landscapes

Max Lu

Department of Geography

Kansas State University

maxlu@ksu.edu

Topics to be Covered

Population size Growth Distribution Ethnic composition Changing demographic landscapes An activity

31 Provincial Units (Not including Taiwan)

The most populous country in the world

1.335 billion at the end of 2009 Just under 1/5 of the world’s total > 4 times as large as the US pop. Large than the combined populations of Europe, the U.S., Canada,

Mexico, Russia, and Japan

Europe 584.7 mil

the US 297.1

Canada 32.2 Total: 1294.6 (2008)

Mexico 110.5

Russia 142.2

Japan 127.9

Lined up shoulder to shoulder, could go around the earth over 30 times!

Still growing at about 7 million a year

But India is expected to pass China in 2025

Population: both Greatest Asset and Liability

Several of China’s demographic traits are similar to those of developed countries

China Compared to the US Source: PRB, 2009

China US Total pop (mid-2009) 1,331.4 306.8 Density (pop/mi2) 360 83 Birth rate 12 14 Death rate 7 8 TFR 1.6 2.1 Infant mortality 21 6.6 Life expectancy m. 71, f. 75 m.75,

f.80 % Urban 46 79 % of pop > 65 yrs 8 13 Per capita GNI ppp $6,020 $46,970

Population Growth

For a pop to grow steadily, several conditions must be met:

Enough food to feed pop. Sufficient medical care, so people don’t die young Capacity to cope with natural disasters Minimum political turmoil

Chinese pop. fluctuated considerably over time

Intro of potatoes boosted pop. growth

Historical Growth

Year Dynasty Pop (in mil.)

2140 BC Early days of the Xia 13.55

2 AD Han 59.59

280 Han 16.16

755 Tang 52.92

1110 Song 46.73

1403 Ming 66.60

1762 Qing 200.47

1949 541

Rapid Increase after 1949 It took about 3800 yrs to increase from 10m to

100 mil Net increase in recent periods:

1949-58 120 mil

1962-70 157

1971-80 135

1982-90 127

1990-00 132

Exceeded 1 billion in 1982 Need to slow down

Population Distribution

Where Most People Live: Near Coasts Flat Terrain Near Rivers Temperate Climates Fertile Soil

China’s Pop Distribution: Very Uneven Striking Differences b/w East and West

World Population Distribution

4 Clusters: East Asia S. AsiaEurope NE US & SE CA

West-East Contrasts

West East

Land 60% 40% Climate Arid/Semi Arid Humid Pop. About 80 m 94%

Many minorities Han Majority

Sparsely populated Densely populated

Cities Some Most Agri. Limited/Oasis Most agr. land

Ethnic Composition

56 ethnic groups

Han people The majority

- about 94% of the total

Reside mainly in the east

Minority Nationalities Several are Big (in millions, Year

2000)Zhuang 16.2 MillionManchu 10.7Hui (Muslim) 9.8Miao 8.9Uygurs 8.4

Some Are Small

Naxi 308,800 PeopleOnce a Matriarchal

Society“A-Zhu” Marriage

Dai 1.2 Million

Pre-Policy

Traditional culture values large families

In the early 1950s under the rule of Mao Zedong birth control policies were condemned. Mao said that controlling the population was “a way of slaughtering the Chinese people without drawing blood.”

“…[the people] are the most precious of all categories of capital.”

Late, Thin, and Few

A campaign launched in 1971

Delayed marriage/childbirth, spacing births at 5-year intervals, and fewer children per couple

Contraceptives widely distributed, free of charge

Require government permission to have children

Family Planning Committees at all levels of governments

“Birth control nannies”Intrusive questions

“One Couple, One Child”

Adopted in 1979 The harshest birth control policy in the world? Couples are asked to pledge to having only one child

Incentives

Free prenatal care

Many rewards (mainly to urban residents):

larger homes, larger salaries and promotions.

Better, often free education for the only children.

Paid maternity leave, 3-6 months, or longer

The government generally pays for the birth control costs.

Consequences of Violation

The official sanction is a fine, but many times much more harsh actions are taken.

Sometimes couples are demoted or fired from their jobs.

Those having 2nd child cannot register them and therefore they do not legally exist.

Many exceptions for second child have been introduced since 1984

Examples: Both members of the couple are only

children First child is disabled For rural residents, if first child is a girl Remarried couples Minority couples

Debate on the “One Couple, One Child”

Allow each couple to have two children?

pros vs cons

The Changing Demographic Landscapes

The Impetus for Change

Unprecedented Socioeconomic Transitions- From a socialist economy to a market economy- From an agrarian society to an urban, industrial giant

- A growing middle class, - Changes in values and social norms

Birth Control Policies- Traditional culture favored large families and male heir- Birth control practice in the early 1970: Late, thin, few- “One couple, one child” in 1979- Modifications of the one child policy

The Changing Demographic Landscapes

Decline in Fertility A Rapid Demographic Transition Aging A Skewed Sex Ratio Large-scale Internal Migration

esp. rural-urban migration Whither One Couple, One Child?

Decline in Birth Rates

TFR: 1971: 5.44 2009: 1.6 Fell below replacement level since 1992 Well below 1.0 in large cities (Beijing, Shanghai, etc.)

Birth rate: 1970: 33.43‰ 2009: 12.13‰Natural growth: 1970: 25.83‰ 2009: 5.05‰

Shanghai: negative growth 17 years in a row so far

Significantly lowered pop growth 1971-2009: 400 million fewer people were born

because of family planning ??

Birth Rates by Province, 2007

A Rapid Demographic Transition

China’s Demographic Transitions

1949, 2nd stage of demographic transitionHigh birth (36‰), high but declining death

(20‰)

Early 1960s: 3rd stageBirth and death rates started to converge

Late 1970s: 4th stageLow birth and death rates

The Chinese Case

Population Aging

The “Graying” of the Chinese Population:

2015: 10%

2035: 20%

2050: 25%

Population aging

2000% 65 yrs or older: 6.96%

2009: 8%

Elderly growing at 3.2% each year

May reach 10% at 2015, and 20% at 2035

Getting Old before Getting Rich

 According to a UN study, China is aging faster than other country in history.

The median age is on pace to move from the current 32 years to 44 years by 2040.

How to Care for the Growing Elderly Population?

Skewed Sex Ratio

Currently at 119:100 surfeit of boys and dearth of young women Increase by birth order Substantial regional differences

3 Main Reasons: Son preference Use of prenatal sex-detecting technology Declining fertility

In 2020, 30-40 million more young men than women Social repercussions

“Demographic time bomb”

The “Care for Girls” ProgramLaunched in 2003

Changing Son Preference?

Chinese On the Move

Tourists in Downtown Shanghai

Urbanization Level

Finally, an activity about how the age-sex structure of China’s population evolves over time using data and tools from the U.S. Census Bureau.